17 reasons to fade the eu summit euphoria rally | Forex Factory

  • 17 reasons to fade the eu summit euphoria rally

    From thesensibleguidetoforex.com

    Last week, the only real market mover was speculation about the EU summit. Ok, US housing and some other data points might have provided a brief excuse for some movement, but that’s all. In last week’s post, COMING WEEK MARKET MOVERS: 6 EVENTS TO WATCH, 8 EU SUMMIT GOALS, I noted 8 things that the EU summit must at least make serious progress towards accomplishing in order to calm markets enough to produce anything more than a short term rally. The goal was to help you quickly cut through the usual media pumped euphoria like we saw after the announcement of the Spain bank deal, and not get fooled into believing ... (full story)

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Ill-b-back
Jun 30, 2012 10:19pm — Edited
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Interesting.
I have never seen such a rush before to "encourage" investors to put their money on black or white.
This scrambling to tell us to "fade the rally", beware of post summit optimism shocks etc etc.
Man, they really are shitting themselves aren't they.
Need some sucker sellers so they can buy, buy,buy.
Makes me sick.
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Ill-b-back
Jul 1, 2012 9:33pm
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Quoting Cliff Wachtel
agreed - I'm just trying to show people what EU needs to do, what it still isn't doing, so that they don't get fooled by rallies based on false hopes
Yes I agree, it is very much false hope for the long term, particularly if the banks hold tight, but suggestions to fade the Friday rally now I believe is deception.
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jalp
Jul 1, 2012 6:29am
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Quoting Yeow Boon
there are always buyers and sellers in every situation. but honestly, we have to ask ourselves whether do we truly believe that the EU summit held last thursday/friday can really solve the debt issue accumulated over the years? objectively, it just got more lax. Also, did the paymaster Germany agree to commit more funds? Answer is a big NO.
You'r right!

Eurozone is built as a millionnaire club. As long as every members have money that's ok. If not you have to leave the club.

On the other hand countries like the United state and China will fight to the death for their lives. This is all the difference. Eurozone is a utopia.
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Cliff Wachtel
Jun 30, 2012 7:58pm
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Ok, after days of pouring over all the verbiage, here's how it breaks down and why we aren't buying Friday's rally.

The EU summit was in many ways a microcosm/summation of all that's wrong with how the crisis has been handled and how we need to respond


See coming post on coming week market movers too
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Trout
Jun 30, 2012 10:42pm
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it's really not the summit we fade but the short-covering squeeze...I learned a long time ago to not concern myself w/ the cause, but focus on the effect...the Euro has a very obvious long-term pattern of providing big rallies -- short squeezes -- to enter on, and blistering sell-offs to exit on...
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Yeow Boon
Jul 1, 2012 4:03am
Permalink
there are always buyers and sellers in every situation. but honestly, we have to ask ourselves whether do we truly believe that the EU summit held last thursday/friday can really solve the debt issue accumulated over the years? objectively, it just got more lax. Also, did the paymaster Germany agree to commit more funds? Answer is a big NO.
Reply
Cliff Wachtel
Jul 1, 2012 10:22am
Permalink
Quoting Ill-b-back
Interesting.
I have never seen such a rush before to "encourage" investors to put their money on black or white.
This scrambling to tell us to "fade the rally", beware of post summit optimism shocks etc etc.
Man, they really are shitting themselves aren't they.
Need some sucker sellers so they can buy, buy,buy.
Makes me sick.
agreed - I'm just trying to show people what EU needs to do, what it still isn't doing, so that they don't get fooled by rallies based on false hopes
Reply
Cliff Wachtel
Jul 1, 2012 10:27am
Permalink
Quoting Yeow Boon
there are always buyers and sellers in every situation. but honestly, we have to ask ourselves whether do we truly believe that the EU summit held last thursday/friday can really solve the debt issue accumulated over the years? objectively, it just got more lax. Also, did the paymaster Germany agree to commit more funds? Answer is a big NO.
agreed, seems German exit at least as likely as any outcome. Expensive, but ultimately simpler and closure comes sooner. In the end Merkel or ANY German leader unlikely to risk their economy, banks, credit rating for sake of GIIPS, nor should they.

there are other ways to facilitate trade in Europe without the systemic risk and need to pay for others' mismanagement.
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Mike Haran
Jul 1, 2012 11:00am
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I am expecting lots more upside, but first I think this rally will gap up sunday night trigger a couple more longs then, pull back hard, maybe a two day decline to around the 3rd-4th a holiday in the USA will allow the londen dealers to run stops hard and kill the correct longs. Then a hard rally maybe for 10-12 days.

Couple of days to look for turns

1-2 July looking at (1.2819 area) then down to
3-4th July pull back from the 1-2nd top (200-250 pips)

Mike Haran
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ozpips
Jul 1, 2012 1:39am
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This things going up buddy at least a few hundred pips more from Friday's close. Take a look at the pattern on the weekly, Butterfly, AB=CD it screams buy me....fade ok for scalpers nobody else.
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fxdeanjus
Jul 1, 2012 10:09am
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sound interesting luv euro lol..........
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