Technical Analysis Fallacy

did chart tell you that what you sold , you may not be able buy back?
may just disappears? bid 1.0005 offer 2.0005, the beauty of fiat.
i need find something with sovereignty to trade.
In need it with A govt, this thingy has too many govts and too many armies.
is like 1 woman with 27 husbands.

Ya i know is the in thingy these days.
But i very old school. leh.

regards

I already switched off.
this getting too stressful.

no sleep for you today.??? lol


http://news.sky.com/story/953515/bar...fter-290m-fine

All over the news here in UK today, a massive scandal is about to be unleashed. Apparently more then 20 banks are involved.

hi FTI....just thinking about the euro....
i am not educated in this but this is what i think.from what i read and see.

dollar is main world currency.
apparently there is more physical euro in world than dollars.

if euro goes...it makes usa more dominant power.
as china becomes stronger ..they can refuse to deal major commodities based on dollar..and can choose whatever currency they like ..as nobody want to upset china.

so euro must stay...in order to keep balance of power out of american hands totally.
so no matter how bad it gets...maybe they make two euro....a poor country euro and a rich country euro...
what do you think.

i think euro must stay....maybe a lot of price fluctuations..but the wise man buys low and sells high...
if i was a millionaire i would buy it all...cause thats about how much its gonna be worth in a few months...then i wait...then i retire.

ai ya all the roaches crawling out of the woodwork.
Get the janitors quick!!
Ask FSA check forex rates fixing as well.
this should teach em.
"As yea sow, so shall yea reap."
this at tier 1 , so have many defenders shreading documents now.

Hi fti.
im reading thread from beginnng to end.

in one post you explain about how market makers make sweeps.

quote
I think you may have mis-understood.
My mentioning of marketmakers sweeps is not to imply that this is done to manipulate the markets.
Be clear, that, the function of marketmakers is to provide liquidity.
ie. providing the market at large , with a price to buy and sell , at all times, while under his watch.

To carry out this function, he would have to use the sweeps to create market movement and to create liquidity to extend the swings, seeking out price levels of least resistance.

Marketmakers do not create artificial pip moves, where-ever they move towards, thats where the market is.
Remember that they drag along a ball and chain of a tail of 2 to 5 pips where-ever they go, which can be targeted by the market participants. So there is no possibilities to make a market where its not.

But problem arises when unscrupulous non marketmakers start to quote the screen of spot interbank Forex ( reuters ASAP), without the intension to deal at the quoted levels. ( their intensions are ??? ) but some are truly fatfingured typos not captured by the system filters. The marketmakers knows who are the true markets and ignore these wannabes and typos, as they can see "name". The price put up by an insignifivant party like db woud be ignored altogether but the data streams that collect the info cannot tell the real from the err. so you make your own conclusions on the reliability of your data stream.

Liquidity is not the thrust factor of the directional sweeps of a marketmaker.
The thrust factor in market movement is predominantly the cluster size of stops and the trail of ("self-feeding") stops triggering.
New supply of trades entering the arena that the initial thrust may create makes it a wildcard at best. No one can knows before hand, of how the sweeps may pan-out. Although marketmakers may have a small scope of forward sight as alike the headlights of a car travelling at night.

The basic consequense that liquidity may play in these scenarios, is in the slippage of the fills that the customers orders will be filled at. This is due to the ability/inability of the corp-desk dealers/brokers, in their ability to hit, fast moving marketmakers.
end quote.


i really want to understand this concept.
my question is.
you say that they do not manipulate markets...their job is to provide liquidity.

would i be right in saying in order to get liquidity lets say the market is quiet..then the market maker will for example buy some currency at the current price and in doing this buying it costs them a few pips when they buy...(the spread).

do they buy and then offer to sell at a lower price than what they bought...ie take a loss in order to get the currency moving ( appealing to investors).

how do they decide wether their intention is to make currency cheaper or make it more expensive ?

then you say the thrust factor is the cluster size of stops...and the trail of stops triggering....
do the market makers actually move the market towards these stops as this would make sense...then when the stops are triggered it will move the market the opposite way and create liquidity....

how do they decide which way to move the market..is it trial and error.
as this could be costly for them.

as you can see i am confused about this issue..but it is a concept that is key to my understanding a piece of the forex puzzle.
i would be totally greatful if you could shed some light on the matter, as your answer will affect my trading and my analysis of the charts.

thank you.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=370909

ok , like they say, "last nail on the coffin"
Is it?
any gamblers ?

this is getting ridiculous, totally untradable.
only betting.

Is this leadership?
OMG, They just realised everyone using the one currency is running different economies?
Talk about planning.
When the shit drops out, it surely must stinks.

So , my friends, when you sign on dotted lines, make sure you know what is on the table.
Even i had made such mistakes before.
Dad said best not sign.
Work by need.
If sign normally have traps.

regards

no....those are not my words ....those are your words to another member..
that would be rude for me to say that to you.

i was trying to understand what it meant..
thank you.

ponder this,
what is the function(purpose) of market making?

regards

ok just a pointing you the right direction.
function of market making is to make PROFITS.
in the process, they provide a service of prices, that there is a buyer, bid, and an offer.
primary dealers always try to make you a bid offer price where best reflects the markets.
when they making out of where markets are then they manipulating.
there are always manipulators in markets,
the existiance of primary dealers is to highlight to errant dealer where markets are, by virtue of their book exposure.

In regulated enviromnments, is a offence bid at or above someone's offer.
In OTC, is possible.
because when they are being checked, they requote.
after they had chewed the customers stops.

So primary dealers will not try chew, you their book is large, only secondary market makers do.

Do you rememeber the euro swissy case.
the primary dealers were still bidding 1.2 , while secondary markets traded 20 pips below their bid.
I am suprised no one lost their licence to deal.
how can anyone trade to sell 1.1980 when there is still bids at 1.2000.

thank you fti...
very informative...as you may see..im trying to get an understanding of 'the small enemy'...so i will be more equip to battle.

the small enemy is the large financial institutions and the market makers....

hopefully soon i will understand them enough to make them my allies...and i will just follow their lead into battle....once i understand the small enemy...then i will battle the big enemy.

the big enemy is myself.

regards

Wow is all i have to say right now, the Euro strength all of a sudden.....

Good night sweet prince who was ever short.

You too huh? I just came back from family time and WOW! Up jumped the devil!

Glad I got out earlier. Don't think I would have seen that coming.

No problems with a move like that. Just manage your trades the way Fti has shown us. I am short the EUR/USD in the 1.2450 area but made money in the 1.2600 area. Will look after the trades in the 1.2450 later if needed. All the best for the last trading day of the month. Ray

probably most of you were short eur/usd; I was long last 3 days trying to build up a position anticipating something from the summit. I've closed it this evening at NY close spike up.

being wrong and losing some money is unpleasant; being right and not sticking to your guns/not making money can be(I suppose is also a matter of individual)... way worse(to put it very mildly - at least I know I have to take a break a couple of days).

Got up just to do a quick check, and here I am one hour later still staring at this stupid chart.

Also, that's why timing the move is so important. If you run out of fuel before it happens... you just wasted fuel

unplanned meeting in Brussels is what lead to this move. Agreement to use some of the bail out fund to recapitalize struggling banks in efforts to lower spain and Italy's borrowing rates..

with stuff like this going on can see what Fti means about gambling right now.....

it's a summit that was planned for weeks...

"All Day EUR EU Economic Summit" - this site's calendar.

the seniority part is also important, etc.

hi....
just trying to get something clear in my head..
you said you were short fiber in the 1.2450 area....but made money in the 1.2600 area...

do you mean that the short trade is still running and waiting.
and trying to find out...did you manage the trade by shorting at 1.2600 or by going long.
euro looks to be trending down some.
or do you manage the trade by hedging.
did you cover your losses by trading a larger amount at 1.2600 level like the wilder chart that FTI has shown us.

you see im finding it hard to understand trade management...its like i missed something...

thank you.

Just managing my trades by going short at the 1.2600 area or higher or lower area. Adding different sizes, closing some trades for profit, getting a better overall average etc. Nothing special, just what I do everyday. All the best Ray.

Hi Ray,

You should add that it is a different MO than FTIs and explained in this thread.

Best regards,