DislikedShort T2 entry on AUD 15M, a bit risky given the move lower we have seen already, but have taken it nonetheless.Ignored
Are you always targeting 1:2 or do take any partials at 1:1?
- #1,604
- Jun 28, 2012 6:22am Jun 28, 2012 6:22am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2012 | 3,770 Posts
tradewith60
- #1,608
- Jun 28, 2012 10:12am Jun 28, 2012 10:12am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2012 | 3,770 Posts
Definitely bailed out too early on the AUD trade earlier. What is now very interesting is the weekly AUD chart !
tradewith60
- #1,610
- Jun 28, 2012 10:33am Jun 28, 2012 10:33am
I found the right conditions in place last night for a short trade on GBPUSD, on the Daily. This trading technique is simple yet very consistent, and that's what matters at the end of the day.
Cheers
akrasiel
Cheers
akrasiel
Hi California
Thanks very much for your reply. I'm familiar with the expectancy formula and how to build a risk model, and that it's essential to calculate the best R:R and max drawdown etc.
I still think that one of my biggest problems is lack of patience Trekker
The wonderful thing about calculating per-trade expectancy and building a risk model is that you will know what your expected return is per month and per year. This can then allow you to plan accordingly.
For example, if your return objective is 20%/month from Strategy A, and your risk model shows you can expect to make one-half that, or 10%, then you now know you should either
1) add a smaller timeframe to your current strategy to increase the number of trades, and hopefully raise your account's expected result up to the 20% objective, or
2) use a higher per-trade risk %, assuming your risk model shows that the maximum drawdown in your backtest period is reasonable and you are comfortable with this (to be conservative, you can multiply this max dd by 2), or
3) add a second strategy that can hopefully bring you up to the 20%/month objective. Adding a second strategy has the advantage of diversification across your portfolio, which will reduce drawdown overall.
For anyone who has found success with the three entry types discussed in this thread (or any other strategy), the next step would be to make this a "trading business" by building a risk model. It is not difficult at all. Earlier posts by 60 and Porkpie provide a link to a free webinar that show you how to create one.
To continued growth.
- #1,612
- Jun 28, 2012 11:54am Jun 28, 2012 11:54am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2012 | 3,770 Posts
listen to this guy... he's bang on the money with his advice!Trekker
The wonderful thing about calculating per-trade expectancy and building a risk model is that you will know what your expected return is per month and per year. This can then allow you to plan accordingly.
For example, if your return objective is 20%/month from Strategy A, and your risk model shows you can expect to make one-half that, or 10%, then you now know you should either
1) add a smaller timeframe to your current strategy to increase the number of trades, and hopefully raise your account's expected result up to the 20% objective,...
tradewith60
Really tricky week to trade and you've done good Nige1.... bodes well for the future
First trade today, was tempted to stand aside after all the moves earlier but couldn't resist this one. Have the stop at 50% of the signal candle value given the length of the bar.
Regards.
