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  • #3,141
  • Jun 23, 2012 11:41am Jun 23, 2012 11:41am
Quoting Fx7877
If the pivot low was not a previous reaction to demand, u wld have consider that a real demand? Am abit confused when i sometime see pple say swing low/high are not considered demand/supply in itself...
If there is no base (DBR/RBD) at the low/high and no level to the left of the low/high, it doesn't mean it is not valid supply/demand.

For example, here on Gold, the supply level is defined with a clear base. In contrast the demand is only defined by the pivot low. That sharp bullish reaction after the very bearish momentum shows there is a load of buyers lined up there protecting that level. Buyers exceed sellers - demand.

Pivot lows/high simply show the imbalance of buyers and sellers. When price revisits these levels of imbalance only the trader can determine for themselves if it is a valid buy/sell.

..
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  • #3,142
  • Jun 23, 2012 5:14pm Jun 23, 2012 5:14pm
I agree. In addition: if something looks like a big "?" try to look at LTF/HTF and most likely you will find the answer.
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  • #3,143
  • Jun 23, 2012 5:22pm Jun 23, 2012 5:22pm
Quoting kruger
I was asked to indicate my entry points. Small charts are m5.
First two are engulfings from m30 D. Third is retest of broken m30 S. Last one is also reaction to fresh created D and flag pattern.

pretty much they are all retests (and great entries).
how did you get being so consistent at this?
  • #3,144
  • Jun 23, 2012 5:47pm Jun 23, 2012 5:47pm
Quoting asos101
pretty much they are all retests (and great entries).
how did you get being so consistent at this?
I just do not trade TT (ok I do, but only on VERY significant levels), I like confirmations. In this case price showed big demand and almost clear way north. But as always, in the move south before this rally, I was burned at two minor demand when I was looking some bounce.
Edit: it is nice to post winners, but losers are part of the game (at least for me).
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  • #3,145
  • Jun 23, 2012 9:15pm Jun 23, 2012 9:15pm
Quoting kruger
I just do not trade TT (ok I do, but only on VERY significant levels), I like confirmations. In this case price showed big demand and almost clear way north. But as always, in the move south before this rally, I was burned at two minor demand when I was looking some bounce.
Edit: it is nice to post winners, but losers are part of the game (at least for me).
Not just you. If anyone tells you differently, or that they have 100% winners, they are either lying, or have a product to sell.

Those of us who trade the markets have losses built into our trading systems... they are expected. No and's, if's or butt's about this!

A high win ratio is nice, but not mandatory.
  • #3,146
  • Jun 24, 2012 11:49am Jun 24, 2012 11:49am
Quoting Venice
Not just you. If anyone tells you differently, or that they have 100% winners, they are either lying, or have a product to sell.

Those of us who trade the markets have losses built into our trading systems... they are expected. No and's, if's or butt's about this!

A high win ratio is nice, but not mandatory.
And this is why money management is extremely important. I keep trying to study and learn how to mark perfect zones on my charts, as if i have a goal of never losing a trade again. That is improper thinking, if prices are leaving daily demand then they are heading for daily supply. Hitting a lower timeframe position with great r:r from a daily s/d standpoint could cover 5 losses in alot of cases.
  • #3,147
  • Jun 24, 2012 12:25pm Jun 24, 2012 12:25pm
Cut the losses quickly, let the winners run - we all know that. But there is something more. This is advised by my wife seeing my mood swings
No matter whether you win or lose, try to keep emotions at the same level because you will lose self confidence or become overconfident. This approach helped me
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  • #3,148
  • Jun 24, 2012 1:03pm Jun 24, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting kruger
Cut the losses quickly, let the winners run - we all know that. But there is something more. This is advised by my wife seeing my mood swings
No matter whether you win or lose, try to keep emotions at the same level because you will lose self confidence or become overconfident. This approach helped me
Haha... yes. Reminds me of when i first started... and a few years afterword. Long string of curse words, profanity and general pissedoffness. Hehe. Moods were ruined for a day. Terrible but gotta keep it in check
  • #3,149
  • Jun 24, 2012 1:07pm Jun 24, 2012 1:07pm
Quoting Venice
Haha... yes. Reminds me of when i first started... and a few years afterword. Long string of curse words, profanity and general pissedoffness. Hehe. Moods were ruined for a day. Terrible but gotta keep it in check
The path that everyone must go to find out...
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  • #3,150
  • Edited 10:00pm Jun 24, 2012 9:20pm | Edited 10:00pm
Hi All,
Just took this trade. I waited until that big bullish bar took out that shelf/supply zone on 5min after bouncing off fresh demand.

Also, confluence with Daily S1 + I can see compression - however would really really appreciate feedback from more senior member as to whether this is really compression.

EDIT: Out at BE - PA wasn't all that inspiring, and my entry wasn't the best. Next!

Cheers

seb
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- Look to the left, Trade to the right - I am the system
  • #3,151
  • Jun 25, 2012 5:52am Jun 25, 2012 5:52am
Quoting Tyoon
If there is no base (DBR/RBD) at the low/high and no level to the left of the low/high, it doesn't mean it is not valid supply/demand.

For example, here on Gold, the supply level is defined with a clear base. In contrast the demand is only defined by the pivot low. That sharp bullish reaction after the very bearish momentum shows there is a load of buyers lined up there protecting that level. Buyers exceed sellers - demand.

Pivot lows/high simply show the imbalance of buyers and sellers. When price revisits these levels of imbalance only the...

I am a bit confused as to what REAL s/d really is, as I have read a few different ideas on this but they seem to conflict. Maybe just my thick skull.....

Here is how I define it:

To find real S/D I look for an area where price was moved by an institution i.e. engulfing, and I make sure that this isn't just a reaction to a previous s/d. A move that happens for no apparent reason can be explained by a decision made by an institution, a decision that price is either too expensive or too cheap. This often happens when you see price base, the basing could represent the time it is taking for institutions to come to a decision. A decision could also happen without any basing. After the decision is made we then look for price to revisit this zone for a potential trade because we know that an institution will want to defend their position/decision, otherwise they will lose money.

A real s/d zone could also be formed on breakouts, i.e. when a decision is made to break up through a supply zone as the only way for this to happen would be if institutions opened very large positions to absorb supply. Once they had committed their money to the breakout surely next time price revisited that area they would want to defend it.

This is the way I see it, if anyone see's it differently please let me know because sometimes I wonder about my understanding of this
  • #3,152
  • Jun 25, 2012 8:11am Jun 25, 2012 8:11am
Hi all,
am seeing this on EU - would this be valid compression into supply? i.e. dipping into every pocket of demand to push price up?
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- Look to the left, Trade to the right - I am the system
  • #3,153
  • Jun 25, 2012 8:35am Jun 25, 2012 8:35am
Quoting Sebastiaan76
Hi all,
am seeing this on EU - would this be valid compression into supply? i.e. dipping into every pocket of demand to push price up?
Not a master here, so take my advice whit a grain of salt. [obviously everyone fell free to correct me]

1) you are on m5; s/d works even on tick charts but a s/d zone on m5 have a different value from one on d1, you have to be a master to swing this zone on LTF.

2) the zone is alredy visited and there is a nice pole on the left; the base of that pole could be easily works like a magnet for price.

3)No, to me is not a valid CP, al least to early to say, be extremely picky whit cp.

ps; have y see the video by if on cp ? the .pdf ?
Sometime the horizon disappear. Twitter: @_whiteout
  • #3,154
  • Jun 25, 2012 9:24am Jun 25, 2012 9:24am
Quoting whiteout
Was watching this for a little scalp on h1 but the bigger picture is more interesting.
Could go higher but...great confluence.
meanwhile in the sgdjpy reign..

entry was a little early, price hasn't touched the level that i was watching [by 1 pip] but.. i have the audusd fresh experience in my mind..[order missed by 1 pip]; i have to manage my entry in a better way.

Quoting whiteout
Some area that i am watching whit eagle eyes :nerd:
Lower one looks very good.

ps: if someone have founded my books: "how to trade nzd usd and avoid early and useless entry and stupid loss" please fell free to pm me. [nzd usd is drive me crazy].
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Sometime the horizon disappear. Twitter: @_whiteout
  • #3,155
  • Jun 25, 2012 11:49am Jun 25, 2012 11:49am
a chart im looking at and waiting for bearish pa to trigger a short.
any comments about my zones will be appreciated.
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  • #3,156
  • Jun 25, 2012 12:57pm Jun 25, 2012 12:57pm
Quoting elliotrader
a chart im looking at and waiting for bearish pa to trigger a short.
any comments about my zones will be appreciated.
For what is worth my opinion they are excellent; and i like the way price is coming into the s. zone. And a possible QM in formation.
Sometime the horizon disappear. Twitter: @_whiteout
  • #3,157
  • Jun 25, 2012 1:17pm Jun 25, 2012 1:17pm
Quoting whiteout
For what is worth my opinion they are excellent; and i like the way price is coming into the s. zone. And a possible QM in formation..
thank you whiteout for ur comment.
i havent got the bearish pa i was looking for .waiting to see how price arrive and reacts to the upper supply level above to trigger a short.
lets see.

thx again.
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  • #3,158
  • Jun 25, 2012 8:02pm Jun 25, 2012 8:02pm
Quoting elliotrader
thank you whiteout for ur comment.
i havent got the bearish pa i was looking for .waiting to see how price arrive and reacts to the upper supply level above to trigger a short.
lets see.

thx again.
Ellio, shows the benefit of waiting for PA to arrive in the zone, rather than doing a limit order. Price rarely turns on a dime.

See attached for the zones I'm watching on EU. Will wait for arrival and watch for engulfing and other bearish action
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- Look to the left, Trade to the right - I am the system
  • #3,159
  • Jun 25, 2012 8:49pm Jun 25, 2012 8:49pm
Quoting whiteout
Not a master here, so take my advice whit a grain of salt. [obviously everyone fell free to correct me]

1) you are on m5; s/d works even on tick charts but a s/d zone on m5 have a different value from one on d1, you have to be a master to swing this zone on LTF.

2) the zone is alredy visited and there is a nice pole on the left; the base of that pole could be easily works like a magnet for price.

3)No, to me is not a valid CP, al least to early to say, be extremely picky whit cp.

ps; have y see the video by if on cp ? the .pdf ?

Hey Whiteout - yes, have seen the Vids by IF - they are fantastic. Really valuable info.

Where is he? He hasn't posted on here for a while!
- Look to the left, Trade to the right - I am the system
  • #3,160
  • Jun 25, 2012 9:42pm Jun 25, 2012 9:42pm
hi sebastian!

i got similar zones on the euro but i dont trade these hrs,i will wait for london open to take a trade.
as for limit orders i rarely use them.i always like to wait for price confirmation (even if it means i will most likely get a later entry than someone who place a limit order, but waiting for pa at a zone gives me more confidence in my trade).
as to IF,he is working hard on the new valuable site he and some others great traders are working on.
here is the link,check it out:
www.acegazette.com

good night!
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