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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #34,341
  • Jun 21, 2012 2:58pm Jun 21, 2012 2:58pm
What a day. Waiting for days for this.
Charts telling me. So it happens.
Here is a beauty for those who sold Euros
Cheer.

Inserted Video
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #34,342
  • Jun 21, 2012 5:56pm Jun 21, 2012 5:56pm
Quoting luSan
What a day. Waiting for days for this.
Charts telling me. So it happens.
Here is a beauty for those who sold Euros
Cheer.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YEYD...eature=related

time to enjoy the pips.
its friday.
Next weeks gonna be real interesting.
so best relax and get all the recharging done.

No hands holding.
Need have absolutely clear head.
and no get rigid.
battle ground is bloody, so grap the buckets.
but now is, under the coconut tree time in my sarongs.


regards
  • #34,343
  • Edited 6:18pm Jun 21, 2012 6:07pm | Edited 6:18pm
thanks for the info [email protected]
ya even i can get rigid at times.

ok now i understand.
But i was not like dead against it.
just felt weird watching it.
Anyways now i understand.
Is true everything good in this world get hijacked by the peeps
who wants use it to for their purposes.
Even song about womenhood.
What can I say?

For those not understand, well watch the explaination.
But no get all the hormones racing.
Is not about that.
Actually lots of that around the beaches.
nothing so sinister.
In fact they are everywhere.
Yaya i know even eve was naked mostly.


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regards
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  • #34,344
  • Jun 21, 2012 6:25pm Jun 21, 2012 6:25pm
ya ya , so is everything else at the beaches.
point taken.


regards
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  • #34,345
  • Edited 7:04pm Jun 21, 2012 6:44pm | Edited 7:04pm
yes and such a lovely personality.
Takes time off commercial tour just to nature upcoming talents.
so lovely.

Inserted Video


regards
  • #34,346
  • Jun 21, 2012 6:55pm Jun 21, 2012 6:55pm
Hello fti,

I read your comments in 2008 regarding the US$ devalue situation, the comments where precise and correctly mentioned metals to rally etc.

I was wondering do you believe it possible we have a longer term US$ bottom here and possible opposite situation for the $ than 2008.

I ask not for trading opinion but for possible economic state and possible similar state to 2008 moment.

thank you
  • #34,347
  • Jun 21, 2012 7:03pm Jun 21, 2012 7:03pm
Quoting fti
yes and such a lovely personality.
Takes time off commercial tour just to nature upcoming talents.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qecULT01iE

regards
Outstanding!
Thanks for sharing her.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #34,348
  • Jun 21, 2012 7:23pm Jun 21, 2012 7:23pm
Quoting fti
yes and such a lovely personality.
Takes time off commercial tour just to nature upcoming talents.
so lovely.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qecULT01iE

regards
a really really lovely song, and here is the time we have to say goodbye with eu, short eu rightnow.
  • #34,349
  • Edited 9:16pm Jun 21, 2012 7:42pm | Edited 9:16pm
Quoting Try
Hello fti,

I read your comments in 2008 regarding the US$ devalue situation, the comments where precise and correctly mentioned metals to rally etc.

I was wondering do you believe it possible we have a longer term US$ bottom here and possible opposite situation for the $ than 2008.

I ask not for trading opinion but for possible economic state and possible similar state to 2008 moment.

thank you
I try not ponder stuff until signs starts appearing.
Certain things becomes very obvious as it glides on wind.
So for now, is futile try speculate of uncertain grounds.
Mostly the economic figures coupled with authorities actions will show the way forward.
Now for me is under coconut tree time.
Although physically i cannot be out but can always build it inside my mind.

Plaese not forget , situations are being managed.
So , as traders we respond with the dealings as the situation moves forward.
As the medicine is bein administered we respond to the curves that comes out way.
Surely all get bias of the possibilities.
But we must never be caught in suspended animation when things happens.


regards

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  • #34,350
  • Jun 21, 2012 8:57pm Jun 21, 2012 8:57pm
Thank you for reply.


Well taken your comments not enough dislocation so far and
'Situation being managed'.....so true!

Europe quite complicated moving from financial/political into social, 11 leaders gone so far.....it seems the bonds markets will continue to punish, until structural change maybe, united states of Europe with central treasury possible required to halt bond market in tracks or big boozka to kick can

China, commodaties are showing quite a slow down..Can & Aus$ down trend looks intact so far...numbers out of China last several months are continually towards contraction

USA looks the strongest so far, best political and monatary system, no peg, no quazzie gold standard (euro countries)

Ben B, could op for more QE but the effect on the economy as shown to be slight and increase cost of living for the poorest and middle class, rewards equities, commods, wall st only, people unhappy with this policy a little more tricky than before. 1 tril in spending cuts from congress to implemented end of this year.

Maybe the corner is getting smaller for them.

but your comment here reminds me to be use caution "Surely all get bias of the possibilities"
  • #34,351
  • Edited 10:47pm Jun 21, 2012 9:46pm | Edited 10:47pm
Quoting Try
Thank you for reply.


Well taken your comments not enough dislocation so far and
'Situation being managed'.....so true!

Europe quite complicated moving from financial/political into social, 11 leaders gone so far.....it seems the bonds markets will continue to punish, until structural change maybe, united states of Europe with central treasury possible required to halt bond market in tracks or big boozka to kick can

China, commodaties are showing quite a slow down..Can & Aus$ down trend looks intact so far...numbers out of China...
yes, impact is always on the middle lower income groups,
when the elites trying to salvage their edge.

the problem is this has gone on for few years now, if we continue another 3 to 4 years ,
all saving may be at the edge of the cliff. Thats my underlying fears.
Productivity is waning and savings are depleting rapidly.
The persistent unemployment numbers are confirming this dangers.

Its not that the bonds and funds markets are non cooperative.
Its just that after what greece had done to the honour of this markets,
is natural expect this loss in confidence in papers.
If the honours not restored, will see slow exodus from these to other funding instruments.
as it is now the 700 bio contagion funds is not well utilised.
They seems even at loss on where to park it.
Its only a matter of time before markets will be at their firewall door.
Need strong charismatic leaders to the fore before situation becomes, too little too late.
But thats just the nagging feeling I getting.
Lets see if the smart kids have a ace up their sleeves.
Market was supposed measuring that.
But the blatant manipulation has skew everything to a fog.
The politics seems like sudden death situations, and keep holding markets at ransom.
They peeps seems forget that their tools are supposed macro manage.
Now seems they paniced and micro-managing.

China situation is very different.
They had been having double digit growth for some time now.
If they not force slow it down, surely the economy will over heat.
They tried help stand up to the euro situation to sustain markets for their growth.
But was not well recieved.
So they now after the knock knock gone back into her shell.
rightfully retracted back to her vast and untapped domestic folds.
As they had said very clearly, the boys need solve their own problems.
Denial is wrong mindset. Sets dangerous undercurrents.

The irony of it is , that lots is done to tweak the private enterprises , esp banking.
When the problem is fundamentally at public spending over shoots.
Personally , i see it as barking up the wrong tree.
Private enterprises activities are basically book bottom line driven and they can respond to change, quite swiftly.
so all the tweaking could be undone in a jiffy, if it not boust their book.
but the socialising of of private enterprises to public, only creates more redundant non profit sectoral productivity activities.
Not unless the public sector can be more nimble than private enterprises, could this work.

Remember the pin that burst the sub propt market? was freddir mac and fanny mae.
Public projects.


regards
  • #34,352
  • Jun 21, 2012 10:43pm Jun 21, 2012 10:43pm
Quoting fti
The irony of it is , that lots is done to tweak the private enterprises , esp banking.
When the problem is fundamentally at public spending over shoots.
Personally , i see it as barking up the wrong tree.
Private enterprises activities are basically book bottom line driven and they can respond to change, quiet swiftly.
so all the tweaking could be undone in a jiffy, if it not boust their book.
but the socialising of of private enterprises to public, only creates more redundant non profit sectoral productivity activities.
Not unless the public...
Hello Fti!
From my observation public sector is not even close to be nimble, therefore it is cannot follow private enterprises. Too many burocrats, will not take a pay cut in hard times, will not (willingly) work for less. In private bus. you do what needs to be done. Money or no money!

  • #34,353
  • Edited 11:09pm Jun 21, 2012 10:58pm | Edited 11:09pm
Quoting Jaro
Hello Fti!
From my observation public sector is not even close to be nimble, therefore it is cannot follow private enterprises. Too many burocrats, will not take a pay cut in hard times, will not (willingly) work for less. In private bus. you do what needs to be done. Money or no money!


we'll see and just trade it.
You see china is different.
They run by central planning.
Peeps are told what to do.
Diffcult copy them,
Europa is driving sme direction us is , i hope no one's over the drinking limit is driving.

The consolation is that the heli's grounded for a while and no greenbag falling out of the sky like flies and on

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regards
  • #34,354
  • Jun 21, 2012 11:12pm Jun 21, 2012 11:12pm
Quoting fti

we'll see and just trade it.
You see china is different.
They run by central planning.
Peeps are told what to do.
Diffcult copy them,
Europa is driving sme direction us is , i hope no one's over the drinking limit is driving.


regards
I know what central planning is. Lived under it for 27 years. It is very slow, cannot react to changes fast. Cannot move without command, and chain of command is long! So 5 years planning ahead may not always work well. Although, for some huge projects it is probably beneficial.
  • #34,355
  • Jun 21, 2012 11:20pm Jun 21, 2012 11:20pm
I find current situation very intresting....

Fti ...you have anything in your life similar to this period?

I feel the countries are in difficult situations all different. In different faze now

USA Fighting deflation but fighting it with QE which stablized banking system, but increase input costs..every action has reaction

Europe...most complicated...defaltion with fractured monentary system, no polictal unity

China, quite complicated also, they reacted with best montary stimulas direct into the economy, but now inflation problem , plus they have peg, not easy to create more stim, more inflation ahead, plus biggest customer europe deflate, you can see in pmi yesterday new orders fallen fast.

China stimulus was so big created boom echo's in Canada and Oz. Canada did crisis stim also but China's stim was so big they got more than the bargained for and now Canada citizen more debt than USA citizen at the height of the boom debt to income 152% ,,,average home price in Vancouver over $1mil , OZ quite similar echo boom.

Like you say fti managed situation, it seems to me that we look not what the problem is in a current area, but looking further ahead what is the policy responce

to be clear I do not talk about this for trading, for trading use the chart. I was more intrested to hear your comments, especially how you commented on the 2008 situation with such precision.

I am such a new trader I am not even at the demo level yet, still trying to pull the pieces together, get my plan together then try and see in demo how I feel.

On just one other macro note. I read in FT Suadi are pumping more oil than ever, they are trying to bring the price down for certain reasons such as slow down Canada oil sands and Brakken shale, decrease power from Russia and Iran...very intresting strategy, Saudi have lowest cost per barrel, so could be possibly true, oil under $80, Can $ down trend still seems intact from what I can see in longer term from aug 2011 highs
  • #34,356
  • Edited Jun 22, 2012 12:02am Jun 21, 2012 11:44pm | Edited Jun 22, 2012 12:02am
Quoting Try
I find current situation very intresting....

Fti ...you have anything in your life similar to this period?

I feel the countries are in difficult situations all different. In different faze now

USA Fighting deflation but fighting it with QE which stablized banking system, but increase input costs..every action has reaction

Europe...most complicated...defaltion with fractured monentary system, no polictal unity

China, quite complicated also, they reacted with best montary stimulas direct into the economy, but now inflation problem...
i believe we living in very interesting times.
new panda on the block thought , great growth.
now they struggle with afluance and increased curruption.
Just look, food prices doubled in a couple of years.
So in fact overheated already, but they managing to be still in charge.
which is a good thing.

the increased pumping is having little impact as the consumption had increased heaps the last decade. even china's looking open more coal mines.
the weak prices is mainly due to economic slow down in all major industralised nations, due to less spending power and relative output. But OPec & OECD will manage the stockpile against the demand. Not worried there. So far i had stayed far far away from the " sweet" crude markets. One need to be the man know where thats going mostly. The supply equation is too twaekable, esp stockpiles. Lots taps and switches.

regards
  • #34,357
  • Jun 21, 2012 11:59pm Jun 21, 2012 11:59pm
Hello Fti,


There is heated debate of privatization of stated enterprise these days in China. Pros argue that by privatization, these entities will become more competitive and creating a more fair playing level, not like nowadays stated enterprise enjoy huge policy favor, while cons argue that if these entities go to private may create big asset mis-allocation, like Russia, arise the so called oligarch, and besides this, the efficiency like pros argued may not lifted by so called competition, for ordinary people, the service (like communication, utility,etc) may become worse.

What's your opinion regarding this, any comments really appreciated.

Mike
  • #34,358
  • Jun 22, 2012 12:09am Jun 22, 2012 12:09am
Hi all

wonder if anyone can shed some light into my dance or am I dancing blindly in the dark??

An eagerly and confused new trader,
sam
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  • #34,359
  • Jun 22, 2012 1:04am Jun 22, 2012 1:04am
Quoting Sampio
Hi all

wonder if anyone can shed some light into my dance or am I dancing blindly in the dark??

An eagerly and confused new trader,
sam

i am too familiar with this chart to comment.

but i just leave you a thought.
if you feel unsure, aside is also a position.

if you insist risk a position, try make sure you have resources rescue if needed.
otherwise run away fight another day until when you have a feel.

regards
  • #34,360
  • Jun 22, 2012 1:07am Jun 22, 2012 1:07am
摸着石头过河+1

corruption is indeed a deep problem, however they usually say here "corruption will destroy this country, but anti-corruption will destroy the party", so as long as party in control, this issue will persist.
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