first...i'm posting up todays sentiment analysis.. but I have other things that I will be posting up regarding my own personal trading and trading development as the day/week goes on.
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS FOR TODAY:
record spanish borrowing costs are overshadowing anything greece has to offer... not that greece has much to offer in terms of economic optimism these days. Seems the markets are recognizing that EZ instability and Econ hardship is going to play out regardless of greeces political structure or lackthereof.
Spain bond yields over the “implosive” figure of 7%... meaning borrowing just isn’t sustainable at these prices.
Despite continual rumors of a more “relaxed” version of austerity for greece, et all... it seems germany and merkel are still basically as stalwart as ever in their agenda, which will only serve to create a more drawn out economic hardship for greece/spain, etc... and the market is now noticing this.
The G20 meeting in mexico is second only to Spainish bond yields...and the makets are looking to this meeting to try to decide if the next steps will be more bullish for risk, or bearish, and in what ways. So... consolidation until some rumors or news comes out may be the outcome for todays trading.
Asian markets are down a bit... around ½ percent for the Nikkei, TOPIX, and H Seng.
China’s commerce minister is saying that June will rebound a bit for growth after the stimulus that has been introduced in china.
the dolllar is a bit soft as the fed meets today, and many are hoping/expecting a QE or other stimulus to keep the US recovery moving forward. The yen seems to be the ideal flight to safety trade today, as such weighs on the USD.
the AUD also seemed to slow it’s move upward as the RBA released a report stating it had a “finely balanced” discussion regarding it’s decision to reduce rates recently. The tone in the minutes released today from the RBA was more dovish than expected, and that they cut the overnight cash rate to a target of 3.5%, lowest since 2009
it seems a simple extention of operation twist will likely be seen as “hawkish” compared to current market expecations. anything less than some sort of new or aggressive action or hint of such will be seen as “hawkish” for the dollar (most likely)
SUMMARY - seems the focus is on the G20 meeting, the fed meeting, and Span/italian bond yields (mostly spain). also, watch for any emerging greek election results, but unless something radical develops, they will likely only serve to fuel a “risk off” sentiment... or at least, a “euro off” sentiment. because of the somewhat expected stimulus that the FED is speculated to be ready to provide, the dollar is probably not the best risk off currency today, but the yen should be solid.
CONCLUSION: it seems the strongest currency will likely be the yen, and then possibly the CAD or USD... AUD should be behind these, and NZD behind it. the GBP and EUR are rounding out the likely weakest currencies today...thought it should really be somewhat of a “ranging” day, as no major new news is coming out until the G20 meeting news and the FED meeting.
look to play solid “ABC” techincal setups, with any eye towards the risk off side...heavy on the JPY... and watch those spanish bond yields for clues of any possible strong move up or down (likely down in the risk currencies if they hold above 7% and keep pushing higher...)
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS FOR TODAY:
record spanish borrowing costs are overshadowing anything greece has to offer... not that greece has much to offer in terms of economic optimism these days. Seems the markets are recognizing that EZ instability and Econ hardship is going to play out regardless of greeces political structure or lackthereof.
Spain bond yields over the “implosive” figure of 7%... meaning borrowing just isn’t sustainable at these prices.
Despite continual rumors of a more “relaxed” version of austerity for greece, et all... it seems germany and merkel are still basically as stalwart as ever in their agenda, which will only serve to create a more drawn out economic hardship for greece/spain, etc... and the market is now noticing this.
The G20 meeting in mexico is second only to Spainish bond yields...and the makets are looking to this meeting to try to decide if the next steps will be more bullish for risk, or bearish, and in what ways. So... consolidation until some rumors or news comes out may be the outcome for todays trading.
Asian markets are down a bit... around ½ percent for the Nikkei, TOPIX, and H Seng.
China’s commerce minister is saying that June will rebound a bit for growth after the stimulus that has been introduced in china.
the dolllar is a bit soft as the fed meets today, and many are hoping/expecting a QE or other stimulus to keep the US recovery moving forward. The yen seems to be the ideal flight to safety trade today, as such weighs on the USD.
the AUD also seemed to slow it’s move upward as the RBA released a report stating it had a “finely balanced” discussion regarding it’s decision to reduce rates recently. The tone in the minutes released today from the RBA was more dovish than expected, and that they cut the overnight cash rate to a target of 3.5%, lowest since 2009
it seems a simple extention of operation twist will likely be seen as “hawkish” compared to current market expecations. anything less than some sort of new or aggressive action or hint of such will be seen as “hawkish” for the dollar (most likely)
SUMMARY - seems the focus is on the G20 meeting, the fed meeting, and Span/italian bond yields (mostly spain). also, watch for any emerging greek election results, but unless something radical develops, they will likely only serve to fuel a “risk off” sentiment... or at least, a “euro off” sentiment. because of the somewhat expected stimulus that the FED is speculated to be ready to provide, the dollar is probably not the best risk off currency today, but the yen should be solid.
CONCLUSION: it seems the strongest currency will likely be the yen, and then possibly the CAD or USD... AUD should be behind these, and NZD behind it. the GBP and EUR are rounding out the likely weakest currencies today...thought it should really be somewhat of a “ranging” day, as no major new news is coming out until the G20 meeting news and the FED meeting.
look to play solid “ABC” techincal setups, with any eye towards the risk off side...heavy on the JPY... and watch those spanish bond yields for clues of any possible strong move up or down (likely down in the risk currencies if they hold above 7% and keep pushing higher...)
