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Restart Trading - Mostly Support and Resistance Analysis

  • #81
  • Jun 18, 2012 7:02am Jun 18, 2012 7:02am
Ahhh thats the divergence your trading, do you understand how a RSI works ??

RSI is a simple bit of math's, I see it's set to 7 so it looks at the range of the market last 7pips and puts as a percentage where abouts it is on that range.

On your first low, it was fairly low to the bottom as the range was :-

1.2707 - 1.2606 so it was low on that range.

2nd area was much smaller count back 7 bars and 1.2660 - 2614.

So the same close value, gets you a higher RSI reading as the previous top is lower.

When you understand above ( I'm crap at explaining via type ), you'll understand there is nothing in divergence.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #82
  • Jun 18, 2012 11:33am Jun 18, 2012 11:33am
Quoting tomomi72003
Long @ 1.26249 0.1 lot


SL @ 1.2607 below today low.

Tp @ 1.2650 50 level and near r1.


Reasons for Entry:

15M PB.
PP
Divergence at 15 M chart.


Reason NOT to Enter:
PP just above.
Down day (trading against the trend).


Attachment

SL hit -18 pips

Notes:
Maybe next time after I see a divergence I should trade against the divergence (I just dont know - I have to check it)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10.1.gif Size: 31 KB
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #83
  • Jun 18, 2012 11:36am Jun 18, 2012 11:36am
Quoting Turveyd
Ahhh thats the divergence your trading, do you understand how a RSI works ??

RSI is a simple bit of math's, I see it's set to 7 so it looks at the range of the market last 7pips and puts as a percentage where abouts it is on that range.

On your first low, it was fairly low to the bottom as the range was :-

1.2707 - 1.2606 so it was low on that range.

2nd area was much smaller count back 7 bars and 1.2660 - 2614.

So the same close value, gets you a higher RSI reading as the previous top is lower.

When you understand above ( I'm crap at...

Well , I actually didnt understand the above.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #84
  • Edited 1:24pm Jun 18, 2012 12:11pm | Edited 1:24pm
Long @ 1.25679 0.1 lot


SL @ 1.2552 below today low.

Tp @ 1.2598 00 level and near s1.


Reasons for Entry:

Divergence at 5 M chart.
Above average daily range.


Reason NOT to Enter:

Down day (trading against the trend).
Time of day.


Notes and observation :
Set a large TP because I wanted to regain the loss that I had last trade. - Not a good behavior.
Took this trade mainly because I wanted to catch the bounce after such a down day. - Not a good behavior.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11.gif Size: 27 KB
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #85
  • Jun 18, 2012 1:44pm Jun 18, 2012 1:44pm
Sorry but this's a wake-up call. Harsh but needed.

http://static5.businessinsider.com/i...age-losers.jpg

I notice you use mainly divergence. In a strong trend, divergence could go forever, go with the trend instead, buddy.

The time is not right too, we want to follow the big money and they are already done for the day, so would we.

My 2 cents.
  • #86
  • Jun 18, 2012 1:45pm Jun 18, 2012 1:45pm
Quoting tomomi72003
Well , I actually didnt understand the above.

To put it short, divergence trading is a myth there is nothing of benefit off it.

Google how RSI works and you'll see.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #87
  • Jun 18, 2012 2:02pm Jun 18, 2012 2:02pm
Quoting duyk20
Sorry but this's a wake-up call. Harsh but needed.

http://static5.businessinsider.com/i...age-losers.jpg

I notice you use mainly divergence. In a strong trend, divergence could go forever, go with the trend instead, buddy.

The time is not right too, we want to follow the big money and they are already done for the day, so would we.

My 2 cents.
I think I trade divergence because they are easy to spot.

I know I should go with the trend , I need to find a method of doing it , any suggestion...?
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #88
  • Jun 18, 2012 2:06pm Jun 18, 2012 2:06pm
Quoting Turveyd
To put it short, divergence trading is a myth there is nothing of benefit off it...
.

You know what - I actually agree with you!!!
I think it is no better than 50% chance (maybe worse , when you do it against the trend...)

I should stop it.
I should find other setups to trade.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #89
  • Jun 18, 2012 2:12pm Jun 18, 2012 2:12pm
Quoting tomomi72003
You know what - I actually agree with you!!!
I think it is no better than 50% chance (maybe worse , when you do it against the trend...)

I should stop it.
I should find other setups to trade.

It's the trend which is the part which is working for you and giving you a very strong edge.

I had a M15 method but its been zero use recently so given up on it, I'm a M1 scalper pretty much so can't help you for swing trades.

Just slap some MA's ( SMA, EMA, WMA ) onto a chart and look for a pattern you see repeat, maybe you'll see something maybe you won't.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #90
  • Jun 18, 2012 10:31pm Jun 18, 2012 10:31pm
Quoting tomomi72003
Long @ 1.25679 0.1 lot


SL @ 1.2552 below today low.

Tp @ 1.2598 00 level and near s1.


Reasons for Entry:

Divergence at 5 M chart.
Above average daily range.


Reason NOT to Enter:

Down day (trading against the trend).
Time of day.


Notes and observation :
Set a large TP because I wanted to regain the loss that I had last trade. - Not a good behavior.
Took this trade mainly because I wanted to catch the bounce after such a down day. - Not a good behavior.


 Attachment

TP hit +30 pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11.1.gif Size: 34 KB
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #91
  • Jun 19, 2012 4:06am Jun 19, 2012 4:06am
Your MA looks nice, wait till its got a good direction like on that down move short as the market stalls near it and repeat.

Back test it, it's how I trade likely get you your 70%.


Just stay out of chop that's the tricky part.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #92
  • Jun 19, 2012 9:41am Jun 19, 2012 9:41am
Again against the day trend.

Short @ 1.26581 0.1 lot


SL @ 1.26670 below today low.



Reasons for Entry:

15M PB at resistance.



Reason NOT to Enter:

Up day (trading against the trend).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12.gif Size: 42 KB
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #93
  • Jun 19, 2012 9:41am Jun 19, 2012 9:41am
SL hit -9 pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12.1.gif Size: 42 KB
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #94
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:18am Jun 19, 2012 10:18am
Again against the day trend.

Short @ 100.363 0.1 lot


SL @ 100.57 , above today high , 00 level , r1.

TP @ 100 , 00 level and near 35% retrace.



Reasons for Entry:

resistance.
An extent move of the 30M bars.



Reason NOT to Enter:

Up day (trading against the trend).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 13.gif Size: 49 KB
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #95
  • Jun 19, 2012 6:22pm Jun 19, 2012 6:22pm
nice thread, I go through the same issues with you regarding not being able to stomach a loss and doin stupid sh$t after a loss like upping the lots on the next trade to try and make it back.

I think its very hard to spot support and resisance levels. like which ones are the real ones that will obey the market. I can see why you turned to divergence for some extra clues.

I was trading pure s and r but feel like i needed a filter to try and see what levels are accurate. I think that is the edge but just need to find out what that filter is! lol, because at the moment my trading plan is "going by gut feel"
  • #96
  • Jun 19, 2012 6:29pm Jun 19, 2012 6:29pm
Quoting supermatt
nice thread, I go through the same issues with you regarding not being able to stomach a loss and doin stupid sh$t after a loss like upping the lots on the next trade to try and make it back.

I think its very hard to spot support and resisance levels. like which ones are the real ones that will obey the market. I can see why you turned to divergence for some extra clues.

I was trading pure s and r but feel like i needed a filter to try and see what levels are accurate. I think that is the edge but just need to find out what that filter is! lol,...
S/R is easier to see on short TF's ie M1, Live S/R when the market tracks above say 1.3010 for 10-30mins, then jump in long, put the SL with enough room to handle a SL hunt but still tight.

Odds are it will go your way eventually, if not you take a small loss, the trick is making a bigger profit than the loss.


This is what I'm doing most of the time and works for me.

Previous highs and low's which is all your seeing on a M30 chart, won't really do much for you unfortunately.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #97
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:41pm Jun 19, 2012 10:41pm
Quoting tomomi72003
Again against the day trend.

Short @ 100.363 0.1 lot


SL @ 100.57 , above today high , 00 level , r1.

TP @ 100 , 00 level and near 35% retrace.



Reasons for Entry:

resistance.
An extent move of the 30M bars.



Reason NOT to Enter:

Up day (trading against the trend).

Attachment

TP hit +36 pips


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 13.1.gif Size: 46 KB
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #98
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:52pm Jun 19, 2012 10:52pm
Quoting supermatt
....
I was trading pure s and r but feel like i needed a filter to try and see what levels are accurate. I think that is the edge but just need to find out what that filter is! lol, because at the moment my trading plan is "going by gut feel"
Yes, I also try to find a way to filter on what levels of s/r I have an edge (a way to put the probabilities on my side).
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #99
  • Jun 20, 2012 12:24pm Jun 20, 2012 12:24pm
Short @ 0.79522 0.01 lot
Short @ 0.7963 0.01 lot
Short @ 0.7975 0.01 lot


SL @ 0.8025 , above recent highs .

TP @ 0.7800 , 00 level and near support and natural retrace of the up move.



Reasons for Entry:

resistance.


Reason NOT to Enter:
above there is more clear resistance.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 14.gif Size: 42 KB
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #100
  • Jun 20, 2012 5:52pm Jun 20, 2012 5:52pm
i like your pivot point indicator, care to share? : )
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