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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #19,341
  • Jun 17, 2012 10:30pm Jun 17, 2012 10:30pm
It's timing!! This is not all going to be decided over night! Greece needs to form a government first. You are right, the anti-bailout party was not majority, but just watch this all play out. Call me a liar when this is all said and done. I would understand and wouldn't even be mad, things take time to unfold and people take time to convince (not talking about you, I’m talking about the world).

These are my views and so far they have served ME right. Greece has not decided anything except telling everyone else what they want to hear, so I will just leave it at that! I’m not also trying to tell anyone I told you so, I’m just given the best advice that I know how to give. I joined to share my thought’s after I felt it would be fair to share my advice after being successful on my own, and I hope people only take out what they want from what I wright and forget about the rest. I like making people think so they will find out for themselves.

You are right though, it’s not that simple, I just like breaking it into terms that people can understand instead of just technical, all I used to do is just be technical and analyze all the charts. I just try and take that knowledge and turn it into words of understanding, besides saying this is a triangle pattern or lines of resistance, etc. I don’t me to talk into certainty and I need to tone that down for sure, I will make a better attempt at doing so. Thanks for the response!! I wish you the best!!!



Quoting Wheels
Aren't you the one who just called that Greece was leaving the Euro effective immediately?

Don't get me wrong. I really appreciate your input, but I would not be so convinced that anything in the markets is a sure shot right now.

If it were so simple as you say, then everyone would be making a killing.

Markets can't function that way - there must be a loser for every winner.
  • #19,342
  • Jun 17, 2012 10:57pm Jun 17, 2012 10:57pm
Quoting Crgone12
Thanks for the response!! I wish you the best!!!
I agree Greece could leave the Euro, but see it as a three-four year ordeal if it does occur.

And don't worry about me - just keeping things interesting. Feel free to challenge me as well. I love to learn about the analysis and perspective of others.

I just think that gold is a wildcard, but remains relevant as an asset to diversify beyond US T-bills and bonds. If you were dumping Euros, for example, wouldn't it make sense to put your money into a variety of assets? T-bills and bonds are held universally, while gold remains a tiny fraction of most portfolios.

Ultimately, there are many arguments for and against gold. But when central banks are buying it up, the Chinese are importing more and more, and Germany is potentially pushing for debt for gold guarantees, I just don't see how its bull run is quite complete. I still expect a surge to $2000 at some point.

In terms of what is happening right now - we had something that resembled a double bottom in the low 1500s (not counting the first massive correction in the last quarter of 2011), and I see us heading up from here. Let's see what the market makers and the large traders bring - the cards are not in my hands.

I wish you the best as well!
  • #19,343
  • Jun 18, 2012 3:47am Jun 18, 2012 3:47am
Hi Wheels,

Please clarify a little bit more: "Germany is potentially pushing for debt for gold guarantees". Thank you so much. I am learning.


Quoting Wheels
I agree Greece could leave the Euro, but see it as a three-four year ordeal if it does occur.

And don't worry about me - just keeping things interesting. Feel free to challenge me as well. I love to learn about the analysis and perspective of others.

I just think that gold is a wildcard, but remains relevant as an asset to diversify beyond US T-bills and bonds. If you were dumping Euros, for example, wouldn't it make sense to put your money into a variety of assets? T-bills and bonds are held universally, while gold remains a tiny fraction...
  • #19,344
  • Jun 18, 2012 5:45am Jun 18, 2012 5:45am
Quoting Exciter135
Hi Wheels,

Please clarify a little bit more: "Germany is potentially pushing for debt for gold guarantees". Thank you so much. I am learning.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle4243556/

My wording may not be perfect, but this is the article to which I was referring.

Germany said they may be willing to step up more in terms of bailing out other countries - provided they receive gold if these countries are unable to pay back the loans.
  • #19,345
  • Jun 18, 2012 7:26am Jun 18, 2012 7:26am
Quoting CathS
Hi Jaimini

I hope this link works:
http://www.oanda.com/currency/live-e...ont=breadcrumb

this site lists changing prices while markets are closed, but didn't show a gap for gold this weekend. Sorry I didn't get it to you before market open!

cheers
Cath
hey thanks alot
no probs i can use this next weekend.
  • #19,346
  • Jun 18, 2012 10:08am Jun 18, 2012 10:08am
What he means is if the Greece thing works out, might as well add spain the lenders want the money back IN GOLD>

Greece - should - could did- might - possible -- WHATEVER.

The Eurozone is good at one thing - Releasing and re and re and re releasing
news that basically says NOTHING solid.

Get used to it.

When this is all said and done if ever, Germany will be the one to put the hammer down or approve further aid.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,347
  • Jun 18, 2012 10:10am Jun 18, 2012 10:10am
Plus all that BULL SH!T that the brokers released about closing positions when all of mine Gapped up in a win.

Just a BS ploy by brokers to avoid people making money on Gaps.

Where are we now?

No further than before so I read.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,348
  • Jun 18, 2012 11:27am Jun 18, 2012 11:27am
I'm starting to see a little upside above 1640 from sundays down and pull back. I'm going to spend some more time figuring this out..
  • #19,349
  • Jun 18, 2012 11:51am Jun 18, 2012 11:51am
I will post chart later. This does not change anything I said in the past, but I see a rise to past 1660 coming. I will show some simple reasoning in the next post. It will still be in a respectibale downtrend if it manages to stay below 1674.50.
  • #19,350
  • Jun 18, 2012 11:59am Jun 18, 2012 11:59am
http://i65.photobucket.com/albums/h2...1/Capture1.jpg
  • #19,351
  • Jun 18, 2012 11:59am Jun 18, 2012 11:59am
http://i65.photobucket.com/albums/h2...1/Capture2.jpg
  • #19,352
  • Jun 18, 2012 12:00pm Jun 18, 2012 12:00pm
http://i65.photobucket.com/albums/h2...1/Capture3.jpg
  • #19,353
  • Jun 18, 2012 12:13pm Jun 18, 2012 12:13pm
Crgone12

Any chance of reposting those charts with a lighter background - I can't make out a thing.....

Thanks

beeb


EDIT - am wary going in to FOMC as it is perfect for "gaming"
  • #19,354
  • Jun 18, 2012 12:17pm Jun 18, 2012 12:17pm
I don't see it going straight up, it will matter how today finishes up. I do see some more sown side first maybe or after the daily candle stick finishes out. I would of been agaist this before but the sign are showing. Just know it has a lot of down side action it has to complete an retest later. It will not break the major 1670 resisstence. The only way I would change my mind is if some how it drop off today...

I had made great money off the sell I have had rinding them up and down, and I just entered a buy, but just decided to take it off at a small profit. I am going to just set up pending trades to activate to be smart about this. Down side is here, but I say a month or two, maybe sooner. Its tring to do some things first right now, with all this buzz of greece. When this changes to spain that when the market will really question the euro. Well thats my take!!
  • #19,355
  • Jun 18, 2012 12:20pm Jun 18, 2012 12:20pm
Yes I will in a bit. If your using a PC, click on the image and when it loads hold down CTRL and scroll up using your mouse to zoom in. It might make it easier in the meantime to see it some what.


Quoting beeb
Crgone12

Any chance of reposting those charts with a lighter background - I can't make out a thing.....

Thanks

beeb


EDIT - am wary going in to FOMC as it is perfect for "gaming"
  • #19,356
  • Jun 18, 2012 12:21pm Jun 18, 2012 12:21pm
disagree what downside action we have already visited sub 1600 well into the 1500s and been rejected multiple times.

Where do you think it is going>>>?


Sideways YES. UP YES, Down Maybe in range.


Do you realize how strong the 100 week SMA is? take a look at it and observe the price action.

and yes.... WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting Crgone12
I don't see it going straight up, it will matter how today finishes up. I do see some more sown side first maybe or after the daily candle stick finishes out. I would of been agaist this before but the sign are showing. Just know it has a lot of down side action it has to complete an retest later. It will not break the major 1670 resisstence. The only way I would change my mind is if some how it drop off today...

I had made great money off the sell I have had rinding them up and down, and I just entered a buy, but just decided to take...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,357
  • Jun 18, 2012 12:23pm Jun 18, 2012 12:23pm
Copper daily looks too have MASSIVE upside potential. Front month.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,358
  • Jun 18, 2012 12:28pm Jun 18, 2012 12:28pm
Off my last post this seems to be in the works, but may take time to unfold. I'm really looking for a test of 1610 again but a small break first maybe of 1634. This is to detailed and it wont play out like this, but more so these are things to look for!!
  • #19,359
  • Jun 18, 2012 12:38pm Jun 18, 2012 12:38pm
I try to keep things simple.

Here's what I'm seeing for GC - 20min resistance:

http://www.screencast.com/t/EqBjM5o3qi

Daily resistance:

http://www.screencast.com/t/8gPKw9cet

beeb
  • #19,360
  • Edited 1:33pm Jun 18, 2012 12:51pm | Edited 1:33pm
I wish I could tell you how I do things, but it's hard to put into words sometimes. I’m always looking for 3 connection points. I look for 2 things on the 3rd connection point: It will hit that target or barley come short, which results in a failure to switch trend and bounces off, or it breaks the line drawn from the first 2 connection points and goes through it, after so it always retraces 35/50/70 percent of the last high and low then continues to its next target since it broke the connection on the 3rd touch. The only thing that hard to get right is timing. 3 is the magic number in this market and that’s how all of this functions. The 4th connection is not the forth it's really the first because it's the start of a new direction or the same continuation of its current. I do this on every timeframe and the smaller once to be more precise but the larger time frames are easier to do.

It takes three moves for a pattern to continue or change; this is what supply and demand are creating. This takes lots of time because if you want the big picture you must find all these connection from the past and the present. There are thing that happened a while ago that have not been fulfilled. Same for 2010 when gold hit 1928, that left a clear sign of a return to that point and beyond, but now it has to complete something’s that are from before to balance the market out. If it just starting heading to 2000 and above now, I would fear for the lives of everyone, because the market can't handle that just yet.

I will think of a better way of telling you what I’m talking about. I will spend some time tonight making some charts showing you what I'm talking about and showing you that it’s really right in front of your face. It's just hard when we are impatient, because we don't have the time to wait, because we don't have the money to do so! Meaning that when you try and analyze all the bullshit in-between you are guaranteed to miss something, because it hard to see all the scenarios and positions.

To add: the smaller the time frame the more the connetion points and the more you need to be in the present, the larger time frames are easyier to read but it will not tell you nothing of the middle connection points!!!



Quoting XTrade
disagree what downside action we have already visited sub 1600 well into the 1500s and been rejected multiple times.

Where do you think it is going>>>?


Sideways YES. UP YES, Down Maybe in range.


Do you realize how strong the 100 week SMA is? take a look at it and observe the price action.

and yes.... WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!
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