Tiger trend trading -long term position trading

I like the thread and I don't want to get in the way with a lot of my posts so I shall just do one big one now and I can reduce it or delete it as the OP wishes.

In my thread "Swing trading with Heiken Ashi and Stochs" I have been slowly moving towards longer and longer timeframes and reading various threads such as this about longer term position building has got me thinking.

I love the idea of taking entries on the 5 min chart but I'm not sure why you are so happy to lose so many of your initial entries? I'm sure these could be refined and a more aggressive policy of moving to break even after a small number of pips may improve your overall win/loss ratio.

In terms of an entry system and a method for determing the overall trend I can't think of anything better than using heiken ashi with stochastics and 1 or 2 moving averages. I would say that because it is my system but I honestly think this is the best method. The beauty of it is that it works in any timeframe. The idea that this and a few other threads has given me is to start with the weekly chart, wait for a signal. The pair must give a positive or more or less neutral swap in the direction you intend to trade.

Once you have determined the weekly trend you watch the daily for a pullback. Once the daily has turned in the direction of the weekly then you wait for a pullback on the hourly. Once you have a pullback on the hourly then you trade the first pullback on the 5 min chart and keep attempting to enter until you either have a trade in profit or the hourly/daily signal invalidates itself.

For entries on the 5 min I recommend using the HA and stoch cross but also using a 25 pip round number grid as quite often the best trades involve a bounce from one of these levels. A 15 pip stop is usually enough and I would get to break even after 10 or 15 pips. If the trade survives then you have an open trade in the direction of the weekly trend.

I would add on at every hourly pullback and attempt to get two or three trades to break even and hold them. I would never close partial lots, I would only ever close all the trades together and to do that I would either trail behind the 10 ema on the weekly chart or close on a heiken ashi change on the weekly chart.

The above amounts to a similar but quite different system and I may or may not open a seperate thread.

Sorry to the OP if this messes up your thread, I will remove it if you wish. Good luck to all.

I appreciate it that you share your trade，as for me,I learn so much from your words, Thanks, I am From CHINA and born in 1990.

some analysis...
i did some backtesting and change in strategies..
because some of the responses..were thought provoking here..
made me look a little bit deeper into back testing
and some sensitivity analysis..

after all everything in life is..OPTIMIZATION..

anyways..
as for the chart..instead of using the 9/20 ema..
i am going with 5/10 ema cross..for
the smaller time frame (better entries) and the daily chart (a balanced exit)..

did some back testing which i will share with you..
and i will address the adjusted trade management based on
my backtesting and what i see would actually reduce the losses.

i will be using
for the daily---5/10 ema cross to determine the trend

for entries..i am using..5/10 as well, because it seems better
in terms of stop loss distance and no. of entries.

instead of using the 5 min..i am using the 15 min..because..seems like
i am getting the ALMOST same number of positions in the long run..
hence its less fluctuations (less traumatic to the eyes) and less no. of losses compared to 5 min...again..its your choice.

Please note I said..ALMOST..it could vary greatly on any day on any currency pair

here is what I think is ..my alteration..

I am going to enter with 2 lots like i am always used to..
but, I want to close 1 lot as soon as the price makes a profit that is equal to the stop loss..this will reduce my losses greatly..and in a trend when you are adding positions..a take profit of 50 pips..is a piece of cake on 15 min charts..
because you are still in the trend and your SL is the high or low, depending on the trend..meaning, price always respects the high and low in a trend.

I did this while I was on the move..manually..
on a 15 min chart for audusd..
...for the trend period of 5/02 to 6/06

results:
SCENARIO 1:-
without breakeven and applying the new trade management rules.
entering on 5/10 cross like always on 15 min.
13 positions-4190 pips
10 losses-2 lots-10x100= minus 1000 pips
(lets assume a SL of 50 pipsx2 =100 pips (worst case scenario..audusd
generally would be around 20 pips..if that on a 15 mins..whatever)

now, net = 3190 pips..

SCENARIO 2:-
with breakeven and entering on 5/10 cross like always on 15 min
3 positions-1600 pips
10 losses-1 lots-10x50= minus 500 pips
(lets assume a SL of 50 pips (worst case scenario..audusd
generally would be around 20 pips..if that on a 15 mins..whatever!!)

now, net = 1100 pips..

audusd..
results:

SCENARIO 1a:-
without breakeven and applying the new trade management rules.
entering on 5/10 cross like always on 15 min.
5 positions-800 pips
7 losses-2 lots-7x100= minus 700 pips
(lets assume a SL of 50 pipsx2 =100 pips (worst case scenario..audusd
generally would be around 20 pips..if that on a 15 mins..whatever)

so, net (floating) is 100 pips..

and this is JUST the beginning of the upmove you have to wait
till it forms a nice trend to see a healthy P/L.......
and
believe me the losses will be of lesser magnitude because 50 pips
per SL is too much, really.

good luck with your pip hunt

that the backtest is for a shot period of time
and markets are random..any testing
is not to be taken as absolute for any pair or for any period of time
..its just confidence building.

My main thing is that I need to stack my positions
and I want them to stay alive..
breakeven means they die more often than staying alive..because
the price always comes back to retest the valleys and peaks..
A SL ABOVE/BELOW these peaks and valleys are mostly honoured
rather than a random point in a chart.
because if 2 of these positions survive to be 1000 pippers..
tht should cover all of my losses in the few pairs that I am playing..
and everything else is mine.

BUT..not having breakeven means..you will eat more losses..
it could eclipse your profits...meaning all your hard work will go to nothing.
so, I came up with the 2 lot entries.. and closing 1 lot when it gets into a small profit..
so, essentially its a free trade...and since its a trend..you could stack up
and the take profit will be reached consecutively till the trend bends,,,you can see that by visually
inspecting your 15 min charts.

You know, after you are stopped out at break even that's not the end of the story. You can always reenter when it starts going in the trend direction again. All it means is that you pay less in losses but still get the same amount of winning trades.

Hugh:
I greatly appreciate your thoughts and strategies..
I welcome you here, please post anytime..and lets make this discussion lively.
I am answering some of the topics that you have asked me..
you really made me take a very closer look at some of the minor flaws
in this system..

Also, I never really look at a system with win/loss ratio..
..I see markets as perfectly random with no common sense except the daily and monthly trends in FX markets, and to me any random blind man's entry can succeed to make you those profits.

I think your system is great, esp. following the weekly for exits...i am sure you will be making a killing when you exit..with all the accumulated profits.
HA does mke it easier to follow the trends..its like a big brother..
i did some testing with HA on the firebird semi automatic system(here in FF)..its visually very helpful!!

about the breakeven or not?..i have addressed in the above threads..
which i think should work for me.

again. thanks for bringing this up..
I will have to do further backtesting on other pairs..to validate
with a high degree of statistical confidence.

please feel free to share you views here.

Thanks,
Manny

I enter on the second 5/10 ema cross..
so, I would have lost a position from the previous downtrend
and now, i cannot enter at the peak of this new downtrend
because i wait for the second signal to enter..
i will post chart which might be better

Thanks Manny, I love the thread and your ideas. I am now considering just trading using heiken ashi candles on monthly charts. When the monthly ha candle closes I will establish 2 or 3 trades in the same direction and hold them until the monthly trend changes.

Something I have been using to try and aid with this is where the price closes in relation to a 12 sma. The price can continue to close one side of this sma for a long period of time, all the time you are collecting swap and profits.

I haven't completely finalised my plan yet but thanks for starting this thread and giving me some ideas for how to improve my own trading.

Entries on 15 min chart
from the second 5/10 ema cross onwards..

THIS IS THE NEW TRADE MANGEMENT THAT I AM FOLLOWING.

this was a nice entry on the second 5/10 ema cross..
and as you can see the downtrend is strong..you could
see you would have gotten 1 lot take profit easily..
and then let the second lot run...as part of position building

1st lot closed with a take profit=sl;
second lot open..and still running

flat ranging market..still waiting

this is the daily chart!!

its moving in the opposite direction of the daily trend..
so, i am patiently waiting!!

Hi,

Firstly, congratulation for your work !
Secondly, I haven't a cross and a green arrow on chart of GBP/JPY on Daily whereas I have the same template than you.

Can you explain me why please ?

Thanks a lot !!

double click on the ma ribbon
it will open the indicator properties...
and change the first ma period to 5
and the second ma period to 10
on both the charts...daily and 15 min

now, you will see everything that i see..

thanks,
manny