Greek Election: Close or Open?

Are you in a trade(s) or sitting on the side lines?

Some open trades. But not in the fx. Either it will be the costs of spread + commissions or an excellent profit. ;-)

I trend trade off the daily TFs, have been long Aussie and Kiwi since early June. Whether by accident or design I'm now out of all euro pairings since around the same time and haven't had the signal (my signal) to go back in. Close to going long on cable on Friday but decided to avoid. To me this fuss is no different to the over hyped mania on NFP day, were I chuckle from the distance of my daily charts. It's like witnessing an atomic detonation on Easter island from the relative safety of New York, the 'force' will eventually reach you, but I'll see it coming and have days of breathing space to make decisions.

There is major event risk this coming week with the Greek elections and the G-20 summit. The chart patterns of risk pairs indicate that the markets are expecting a positive outcome from the elections which is evident from the positive breakouts in risk pairs like AUD/USD. The strength of the Yen pairs is surprising though and may reverse by end of day tomorrow. Our analysis of the event risk and the resulting potential trade setups are as follows:

Scenario 1: New Democracy wins Greek elections with complete majority: This scenario will be positive for the Euro and risk in general. This is however an unlikely scenario. In this scenario we expect continuation in AUD/USD towards 1.0250 and EUR/USD towards the 1.28 level. We also expect rallies in JYP pairs.

Access the full article at: http://mystockstream.com/pg/blog/read/10530