It's Really All About Consistency...

FT the gbp could be very bearish ,testing 2.6300

I think more bearish than eur

Totally agree...been feeling this for several weeks in fact.

starting with the GBP break down around 6055

I feel that of all the risk markets, the GBP is poised for the most weakness, the least strenght...

and my head tells me AUD is strongest risk, but my eyes tell me EUR is strongest risk, AUD behind.

at least I can say one of those two..

so, i'm also kinda looking at good EUR/GBP longs, and GBP/AUD shorts.

a little over done right now on both..but should they pull back a bit... I may consider taking something there...

X

So... what type of charts is this:

" lfx charts"

the numbers look far different.... is it like a weighted index of sorts?

X

I have closed weak buys on eur gbp on gap up but im looking to add again,

also I feel Aud will be weak ,gold also I am short

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61#post1847361

I like to get in here:

eur gbp I have kept to plan ,daily is stop

Actually now I think eurusd will be down for the next weeks. The last leg down to the lows. Spain being the catalyst, and I guess we will see many more news about spain. From then on we see what happens. I guess when we reached the lows in the realms of 1.2, we will range for quite some time. Then I guess greece will get out of the euro-zone, adopt the drachme again, denominate all debt in drachme and devalue their currency by printing themselves out of their misery. (Anyways, lots of debt has already been written off and / or socialized, so that all won't have a lot of bad effects on the EU). That might then be the scenario for the euro to climb again. But of course if spain escalates, then we have another leg down. What really might have an extremely positive effect is, if spain suddenly decides to do some real reforms like reducing the administration apparatus and try to establish a good industrial base. However, I don't think that this will happen, due to the reforms already posed upon them by the EU. That's already enough to handle and as we know, most countries don't do the necessary things until it's too late.

With greece it's already too late, so one way or another, they will change their ways, relieving the euro-zone once they are out. What are your opinions?

(By the way, sorry if I am diverting this thread a bit more into the medium-term, I know you want to trade fundies more in the short-term, but I kind of find the medium term a bit easier to predict).

Traderx,

May I ask why you added to a losing position so many times? Are you looking to catch a bigger swing on a daily or weekly chart?

hi FT did you trade eur gbp ? ,I took profit on most not sure whats next,

but im looking at buy the pull backs ,everthing Ok ?

Well, I haven’t been posting in a couple days, but after my trading during the first london and US sessions this week, It was painfully obvious that something wasn’t working right, and I felt at the time the forums here were more of a distraction than anything else.

So, after 3 weeks of trading, each with a diminishing level of profit from the week before, I found myself trading the opening sessions of the week, with a total disregard for my plan, or objective analysis, etc. I can’t really explain how sinking the realization was as my trading activity increase, as well as my losses. I’d finally decided to build a plan specifically designed to focus on trading psych, rather than trading mechanics, and things were going so well.

But all of a sudden, it’s as if none of it was really relevant. I might as well been trading without any plan at all, for all the good I was doing following it. This wasn’t about just making a mistake, or forgetting to follow a detail... it was a full blown complete disregard for any sort of structure.
And it couldn’t have felt worse to realize that as my trading drew to a close that evening.

So what went wrong? what happened? I didn’t know at the time, but I got a good nights sleep, and the next day the first thing I did was get some distance from the previous day. It was a source of stress, and I can have a tendency to become critical, of others and myself, and I knew such behavior at this point would be self defeating.

After getting some distance from it, I was able to go back and look at some of the things that were going on the previous day as I tried to figure out just where I went wrong. As I was thinking, I remember distinctly that the previous day I had thought to myself “man, I wish london would open sooner... i can’t wait to be done for today and go to bed.” Or, “I really need to sleep more, maybe I should take a nap or something”... thoughts along these lines.

I was operating on less than 5 hours of sleep for the 3rd day in a row, and that isn’t nearly enough for me. I prefer about 8-9 hours, but can make do with 6.5-7 hours. Anything less however, and I can only do it for so long before I just can’t function very well without a good nights rest.

But in spite of the physical difficulty I have in staying awake like that, it’s something I’ve done ever since I started pulling the occassional all nighter in high school. I’d say I don’t get 7+ hours of sleep about 3-4 nights a week. Furthermore, maybe every other week I’ll go 2-4 days at a stretch averaging less than 6 hours per night for each night.

As I thought about this, it started to dawn on me just how much of a problem this is... I know studies have shown that impulse control and concentration ability can be dramatically affected by a lack of sleep. In fact, driving while sleep deprived actually has a very similar effect on the body and mind as driving while drunk, and in many states it carries a similar penalty as driving under the influence does.

It finally hit me. For much of 2011, due to circumstances being somewhat different than they are now, I was generally able to get more sleep on any given day than I have been able to this year. Furthermore, when I think back on some of the more memorable losing days... most of them I know I was trading tired. Also, the pattern I have of periods of significant consistent success, only to be broken by a string of losing days/weeks, etc. I know as my trading is going well, I tend to want to trade for longer periods, even through all 3 sessions (from toyko open to london close).

And when I’m trading poorly, i tend to reduce the time spent at it... in fact, It can quickly become emotionally draining, so it’s very easy to say “alright, i’m taking some time off from this nonsense”. And it nearly always improves my trading when I go back to it a few days or a week later. And it’s very possible that the PRIMARY reason for this improvement after I take time off is just that I am essentially “on vacation”, and so without my work, I get plenty of rest nearly every day.

While I wouldn’t ever imagine having a few beers while I’m watching the charts, I now believe I may have just been in “trading while impared” about 30%-40% of the time.

I believe this has been a significant insight. In fact, possibly the most significant of any I’ve had in a long time. My trading mechanics and understanding of how to find high probability, low risk opportunities in the markets is at a very high level of understanding, and has been for quite some time now. I don’t yet have the entire process perfected, but I have every piece I would need at this point, and on any given day, I’m able to apply the proper tool in the appropriate market context and derive the best answer from there.

But then some days like the first day of this week, it would just all fall apart. And usually the “damage” is less than it was the other day (of which I’ve recovered about ⅔ of it in 2 days, so should be at or above an equity high in the next couple days...) However, those types of days were probably responsible for a very significant portion of my losing days. Possibly most of my losing days.

So, with this in mind, I’ve created a schedule that restricts me from trading once the U.S. session opens, (though I sometimes will have orders pending, or audio alerts to wake me up should a price get hit that I need to make some sort of decision on). In the event there is an opportunity or trade that is good enough to justify staying awake through the U.S. session, then I simply forfeit any trading for that coming Asian/London/U.S. session. In other words, I give up a day if I trade past the U.S. session open at 8:00 am EST. This guarantees I receive a minimum of 6.5 hours of sleep each night, which is the minimum amount of rest I can get and be able to operate without feeling deprived the next day.

Also, i’ve had 2 well rested nights in a row now, and the very next day, I felt much better, and was able to follow my plan for that day without any problems. I’ve done the same the following day.
If I can finish this week with a profit over all, this will mark the first time i’ve been able to pull myself out of such a mental rut so quickly.

It took having a plan focused on trading psych however to figure this out. Before, I would just review my trades and conclude I took bad trades, and made some mistakes, but without realizing the underlying cause of such mistakes was a loss of impulse control and logical judgement due to sleep deprivation.

Anyway, this post ended up being much longer than I had expected it to be, but I wanted to use this thread to put down in writing my experiences over the last few days, to have a more concrete understanding of everything that went on. I don’t know how many of you trade while tired... but if you do, and you experience losses during these times, you may want to consider what i’ve written above. I personally feel I have a whole new opportunity to continue with this project of improving my trading, and have a much greater sense of internal stability regarding my trading, since I feel I’ve identified what I believe to be one of the primary factors that was preventing me from acheiving the level of consistency that I have been looking for.

Good for you. I agree wholeheartedly, if you're tired, you just are not operating at full capacity.

Also, it's so important to take time off from trading, especially when you hit a losing streak. Hell, when anything else in life starts going bad we'll always put some distance between us and it, so why not trading. I always take time off, including the entire month of August because if I don't, I'll go friggin mad. There is no need to sit there day after day trading. It's a huge advantage private traders have over institutional traders.

Spain was downgraded by Moody’s by 3 levels. It may still receive further downgrades as well.
Stocks dropping around the world in response to this, as well as to the disappointing U.S. data that retail sales dropped more than expected in may. This is lowering the outlook for the near future.

political rifts are increasing between the EZ political factions. This is causing more investor insecuritiy in the bond market.Spanish and italian bond yields have been increasing, but so have Bund yields as well... this is starting to show a possible change for the marketplace, one which is possibly influenced by the fact that germany has the most to lose should more instability and soverigen default occur.

However, it seems rumors are leaking that germany may, in the end, blink first and agree to some more stimulus. This could be fueling the german bund yield rise over the last couple days.

Also, in addition to this “good news” for the risk markets, more rumors are leaking about a 100 bps cut by china coming out. This will no doubt help support risk in general, and most likely the AUD, and to a lesser extent the NZD

Borrowing costs for spain and italy rose yesterday. There is also concern of any news that will provide credit to the rumors of spain needing a full blown bailout in the next couple of months. There is a fed policy meeting next week, and this will be looked to for guidance regarding QE

US consumer price data coming out today, and there are ever increasing rumblings of a bernake deciding to renew QE hopes. this alone is putting pressure on the dollar, and causing speculators to decrease their bets against risk, namely the EUR, AUD, and NZD. Expectations are for a 0.2% deflation in the CPI from the previous month.

Short covering ahead of the weekend is the theme, however, very large options around the 2500 level are set to expire at todays NY cut, as well as tomorrows. My suspicion here is that a move to the upside above yesterdays high will either be made pre NY, with a subsequent drop back down around NY cut, or price will stay down toward 2500 until the NY cut today, then move upwards, only to drop back down around the NY cut tomorrow.

Over all however, fundamentals in the EZ are growing weaker and weaker, and sovereign debt problems are also weighing on things. it’s just bad any way one slices it... and if it wern’t for such an overwhelming number of folks holding short or the various options positions that are being fought over, it is safe to say the euro would be significantly lower. So, with that in consideration for today, more volatility taht fails to break out either way seems the likely movement.

CAD dropped on the poor US data because canada’s biggest trading partner is the US, who is a net importer. it seems to be tracking equities. So, it seems the currency most negatively affected by the bad US data is the CAD, rather than the USD. however, the CAD has other positive things going for it such as options traders reducing their bearish positions.and , so it’s rather difficult to decide if it is actually better to take long positions against than the USD, or visa versa.

Summary - not much is clear today from the sentiment analysis, but the overly short on risk markets, and rumors of german flexability and china rate big rate cuts are having an upward effect on the markets. I believe in the EU, options players will largely influence the market, and the italian bond auction will very possibly have an effect, but that auction will be muted against the backdrop of greek elections. A short squeeze climate of sorts is still weighing on the euro, even though regardless the of party elected, the problems in the EZ and with the euro as a currency will by no means be any different than they are right now. It seems to be another day much like the previous 2 sessions after the selloff on sunday/monday as far as the euro is concerned. the NZD is likely to be the strongest currency if risk is on, however due to the current climate, I expect ranging and chop.

CONCLUSION - looks primarily a “risk on” day... for EUR/USD, look to buy bottoms, sell tops, be mindful of the options positions and the NY cut for them. Don’t play for big moves unless something decisively breaks out either up or down, particularly the euro. However, don’t look to short the NZD or AUD today, and if possible, look to get long the NZD or even AUD against any other currency that is looking to drop (particularly non risk currencies) and keep a somewhat long bias on the eur/usd the closer it gets to 1.2500, and a short bias the closer it gets to 1.2670.

As for my chart analysis, many risk markets look poised to break out to the upside against the dollar/yen... and the dollar looks to be the weaker of the two. Since sentiment is so wishy washy “wait and see” today, focus on technical levels with a slightly long bias in the risk markets against the USD and JPY

Here's a link to a post I just made over at the blog... it shows a high probability low risk technical setup that I just saw work out (at least so far) on the EUR/CAD.

If you try to pick bottoms usually just to end up with some stink on your hands, i suggest you check it out:

http://currencytraderx.wordpress.com/

Well, I may post some pics up on the blog regarding my analysis tonight, but here is what i'm looking to take (I may not though, depending on correlated markets, price actions, proximity to news events, etc.)

EUR/USD short -
depending on what time this level is hit, I’m looking to get short in eur/usd somewhere between 2620-2650...but ideally 2640.

EUR/USD long -
again, depending on timing, around the 2530-2515 level

I am looking to get long GBP/USD somewhere around 5510-5490

and I want a long trade in NZD/USD somewhere below 7765

Since I've had 2 profitable days in a row, and already had 1 trade trigger "today" and resolve profitably for me (a USD/CAD long)... I actually only need to keep a profit today in order to be able to go back to trading my regular "up to 3 trades in 3 catagories of setup"

This is the 3rd consecutive day of taking 2 trades (although my entries are sometimes more than this...i'll split a trade into 2 orders sometimes, in order to best optimize chance for entry and ideal entry)... and i'm really glad each has seen a profit.

So, I only have 1 trade more I can take today... really not sure which it will be, but i'm just looking to see what sets up.

I have other markets and levels i'm looking at of course, but I figured I could post some of them up here.

it's the little mistakes sometimes that can be the most bothersome...

I had a long order on the gbp/usd that I was willing to take during the asian session only... europe i planned on deleting that order and waiting for price action confirmation if i was going to take the level, because it was dangerously close to a trendline that if broken, would cause quite a bit of a selloff most likley.

unfortunately, I was not paying attention to the time, and the order triggered before i had a chance to delete it. So, a foolish mistake cost me half a percent.

At any rate, I've gone over my platform to make sure there are no more pending orders that could "take off" without me.

Now there is a real possiblity that the 1 remaining trade I have for the day could result in a net loss for the day... however, I don't want to "cheat" and not take a good opportunity just because I wanted to have "3 consecutive profitable days."

Anyway, this is something that so rarely happens to me that I'm not sure if there is anything to do but just be more careful about clearing out all orders as soon as they are not longer good just sitting there. I do it every day too, sometimes more than once a day... It again shows the little details can be every bit as important as the bigger picture stuff.

FT please look at gbp usd ,consider a trade

Look heads up the $ its gonna be bullish ,bear in mind I hope you have a better day

Tony

well, in spite of the analysis I did earlier on price levels of interest, I may just focus on the eur/usd, because I feel I have the best grasp on that market tonight, and for now, it looks to be the strongest against other risk markets.

I will be watching into the london open to best determine this...but, it may be the only market i watch tonight.

please examine gbp ,