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Simple logical trades

  • #21
  • Jun 13, 2012 12:21pm Jun 13, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting paka
"Frequency of OH Distant %", what does it mean? How do you calculate the frequency?

"Cumulative frequency", what does it mean? A sum?

Otherwise it is hard to figure out your post, except I'm guessing you say it works well.

Thanks,
P

BTW. OH Distant seems to be in some way a range, isn't it?
It is difficult to show the full formula here.
Please click the below link and refer to screenshot "Frequency and Probability". The screenshot might help you understand the formula that i mentioned here.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=367740
  • #22
  • Edited 1:20pm Jun 13, 2012 1:00pm | Edited 1:20pm
Hmm... Doesn't help much, at least for the moment. I'll try to spend more time later and try to figure it out. Even if I don't understand the calculation behind, what I see in plots looks very interesting.

BTW. How do you import the current market data to Excel? If you do it manually it seems to be a very tedious task(!).

Thanks for posting.

PS. Particularly, I'm interested in currency pairs range estimates. In your models, do you utilize by any chance the range for each pairs to calculate market volatility? I think those ratios can be quite interesting.
  • #23
  • Jun 13, 2012 2:28pm Jun 13, 2012 2:28pm
Quoting paka
Hmm... Doesn't help much, at least for the moment. I'll try to spend more time later and try to figure it out. Even if I don't understand the calculation behind, what I see in plots looks very interesting.

BTW. How do you import the current market data to Excel? If you do it manually it seems to be a very tedious task(!).

Yup. I agree with you ,only this statistical analysis is not enough. For your info that, i just completed my upgraded analysis system. All my analysis is done by using VBA programming, not manually! My latest system consists of one candlestick bar's range in a time frame, moving average's pricing behavior, trend behavior with Fibonacci, trend reversal timing, wave distant & Fibonacci. All these analysis will provide the probability of pricing, Fibonacci and timing.

In order to provide precisely evidences for one case/trend behavior, i am planning using multiple time frame (different period for array of candlestick bars) to combine and form complex analysis system. The purpose is to explain precisely the pricing & trend would undergoes what circumstances. Meaning that all the analyst result coincides at price A ,which is the high probability for entry/stop/target. Simple saying, historical price repeats itself !!!



Quoting paka
PS. Particularly, I'm interested in currency pairs range estimates. In your models, do you utilize by any chance the range for each pairs to calculate market volatility? I think those ratios can be quite interesting.
Do you mean correlation trading? If do, i have think about this and going to plan a analyst system, but after i finish my complex analysis 1st as mention above.
  • #24
  • Jun 13, 2012 3:01pm Jun 13, 2012 3:01pm
[quote=Fx2ProTrader;5757144]Simple saying, historical price repeats itself !!!

It means? Even if I'm for quite a bit into Forex I don't consider myself as a well knowledgeable person. I'm still learning.

Quoting Fx2ProTrader
[b][color="RoyalBlue"]Do you mean correlation trading? If do, i have think about this and going to plan a analyst system, but after i finish my complex analysis 1st as mention above.
Yes, combining single range for a given currency + correlations. Based on a sell/buy trend between given currency and it's pairs combined with currency range I think one should be able to make right choices. The question is which time frame is the most adequate... I would exclude short term trades. The feasible time frames should probably start from +3h... Just an idea.

Thanks,
K

If you are willing to share more of your secret recipes I will gladly read/listen.
  • #25
  • Edited 4:38am Jun 14, 2012 4:28am | Edited 4:38am
[quote=paka;5757248]
Quoting Fx2ProTrader
Simple saying, historical price repeats itself !!!

It means? ......

I only trade and capture those trading profit based on trend behavior and situation whereby it always repeat itself in a suitable time frame with suitable range. Trending and ranging are the main patterns in whichever time frame chart. Therefore i am doing this analysis to look for the best setup regardless of major/mirror fundamental and economic calendar. Because price in chart will digest the news ,and trend will shift to next equilibrium position due to imbalance of market demand and supply. If historical price doesn't repeat itself, why should we trade in the market.



Quoting paka
Yes, combining single range for a given currency + correlations. Based on a sell/buy trend between given currency and it's pairs combined with currency range......

Yes. I agree with you. Correlation might be the best prediction tool because currency pairs affect each other. I think i have to create a system to check and obtain the results in matrix formation. So i could look for the high probability result especially which time frame is the best.
If you have any ideas and comments, i will take your words and consider into my system as well.


Quoting paka
If you are willing to share more of your secret recipes I will gladly read/listen.
I could not tell you right now my techniques without any crucial evidences. The answer is from completed analysis and back-testing reports and i am doing this now after my planning is done. The planning is regarding complex system (Multiple time frame analysis).
  • #26
  • Last Post: Jun 14, 2012 9:24am Jun 14, 2012 9:24am
Quoting Fx2ProTrader
I only trade and capture those trading profit based on trend behavior and situation whereby it always repeat itself in a suitable time frame with suitable range. Trending and ranging are the main patterns in whichever time frame chart. [...]
I agree, there is definitely some magic in it; I have particularly range calculation in mind. Would you have any recommendation, what is a good way to approach it/calculate it? I'll comment more on that below.


Quoting Fx2ProTrader
[...] If historical price doesn't repeat itself, why should we trade in the market. [...]
Well said


Quoting Fx2ProTrader
Yes. I agree with you. Correlation might be the best prediction tool because currency pairs affect each other. I think i have to create a system to check and obtain the results in matrix formation.
[...]
If you have any ideas and comments, i will take your words and consider into my system as well.
And here comes above mentioned ranging. Would you have some particular methods/formulation to recommend or to look/read into? So far I simply use:

(initial_price-current_price)/initial_price

However, it does not always give accurate predictions. Plus extend it to a basket of currencies, which will results in a single broad currency correlation number. Based on currency1/currency2 ratio I think one should be able to predict the current trend down or up for a given time frame (and here one should calculate a set of those for different time frames and duration. The thing is, sometimes, but just sometimes the ratios are odd. Therefore, I'm looking for some more accurate range calculation tool, which would take into account those two prices, without distorting their actual bull or bear nature.

Thanks!
K
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