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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #34,061
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:51am Jun 10, 2012 7:51am
Quoting AllanS
What if the market doesn't give you those handy retracements along the way, but just takes off like a rocket in the wrong direction and keeps on going? It will do this, one day, while you calmly wait for relief that never comes.

Didn't fti say, "Never rescue against the trend"? Have I misunderstood him completely? To me, that's one of the best bits of advice in the whole TAF thread. But to practice this, I need to have a very shrewd idea of what the trend is doing in my particular time frame, and I also need to be willing to...
Till that one day I will have lot of foreign capital to close the trades at loss and still a winner.

What if had gone long after caught up in trend change and closed at loss all the shorts and go long and close at loss all the longs because trend changed again to downside. I would be just like all the other panic traders who are licking their bleeding wounds after Thursday and Fridays up and down.

And it is going up again and I am getting ready for shorts may be long this time.

Everyone talk about trend, does any one know what it is? It seems I know nothing about it.
  • #34,062
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:58am Jun 10, 2012 7:58am
Quoting simpleman
Till that one day I will have lot of foreign capital to close the trades at loss and still a winner.

What if had gone long after caught up in trend change and closed at loss all the shorts and go long and close at loss all the longs because trend changed again to downside. I would be just like all the other panic traders who are licking their bleeding wounds after Thursday and Fridays up and down.

And it is going up again and I am getting ready for shorts may be long this time.

Everyone talk about trend, does any one know what it is?...
And that's exactly the same thing about yourself, etc.
  • #34,063
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:15am Jun 10, 2012 8:15am
Quoting Gro
And that's exactly the same thing about yourself, etc.
yes boss, it is me only no everyone..
  • #34,064
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:35am Jun 10, 2012 8:35am
Quoting simpleman
Till that one day I will have lot of foreign capital to close the trades at loss and still a winner.

What if had gone long after caught up in trend change and closed at loss all the shorts and go long and close at loss all the longs because trend changed again to downside. I would be just like all the other panic traders who are licking their bleeding wounds after Thursday and Fridays up and down.

And it is going up again and I am getting ready for shorts may be long this time.

Everyone talk about trend, does any one know what it is?...
Having said doesn't mean i will wait for the price to come down every time. depending on the situation some time break even. sometimes rescue quickly and close.
  • #34,065
  • Jun 10, 2012 10:19am Jun 10, 2012 10:19am
Quoting simpleman
Fib attack: 1+1+2+3+5+8+13+.......
Newbie attack: 1+1+1+1+1

I can't maximize until very good at recognizing flow and chart patterns till then I use newbie attack or little higher i.e. 1+1+2+2+2+2. and still make very good gains. I also close positions from time to time if I am overloaded, no harm in doing that then loosing profits.

When I rescue I do not care about sequence much other than staying close to price/average.

But it is just me and of us are different people..
Hi Simpleman,

Thanks for your advice

True, I will need to dance better before I load up more positions...
  • #34,066
  • Jun 10, 2012 10:33am Jun 10, 2012 10:33am
Quoting AllanS
What if the market doesn't give you those handy retracements along the way, but just takes off like a rocket in the wrong direction and keeps on going? It will do this, one day, while you calmly wait for relief that never comes.

Didn't fti say, "Never rescue against the trend"? Have I misunderstood him completely? To me, that's one of the best bits of advice in the whole TAF thread. But to practice this, I need to have a very shrewd idea of what the trend is doing in my particular time frame, and I also need to be willing to...

I think it comes down to your ability to "follow the flow" of the market. If you get caught trying to rescue and the market really takes off away from you and keeps going then is probably an error on the part of the trader in that you misread direction.

I accept that they may be the rare occasion that you could get into real trouble however if you are prudent and able to follow the flow of the market this should be very rare. Even so in this situation assuming you are patient with your rescue attempts and well capitalized you should have opportunity to recover your troops or at least a proportion of them to reduce your exposure and continue the battle. I think this is where the skill is.
  • #34,067
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:28pm Jun 10, 2012 12:28pm
http://www.tradersmagazine.com/news/...46-1.html?pg=1

They are using rigidity to trade the market...but what's the point? If dealers can see their stops, will this be more sitting ducks?

Also, if funds want to trade rigidly, there might be blow-ups. Then they will attract the attention of the regulators, which may make significant changes.

Pondering....
  • #34,068
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:57pm Jun 10, 2012 12:57pm
Quoting simpleman
Follow the trend, don't panic. If have fear than lower your position size and see how you do it when rescue.

Three days ago got caught up when the trend changed, I was short 12411 and market went up to 126+. In between I had lots several shorts and take profits which kept my account in plus but the original positions were still there and then market started turning back I had some shorts at 12617 as well which I closed with profits when it came back down and the original position at 12411 closed at 12445 with just 34 pips loss but during this...
Good to hear I wasn't the only one! This sounds almost exactly like my story.

I only made a couple dollars profit by late Fri before close but after a 4 day battle, I was pleased with it.
  • #34,069
  • Jun 10, 2012 1:22pm Jun 10, 2012 1:22pm
Quoting simpleman
yes boss, it is me only no everyone..
The only one boss is here

My answer to your post was a continuation of "the trend".

PS Attack (even novice attack) is not FIBO

Rgs
  • #34,070
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:03pm Jun 10, 2012 3:03pm
Quoting Gro
The only one boss is here

My answer to your post was a continuation of "the trend".

PS Attack (even novice attack) is not FIBO

Rgs
I see...
  • #34,071
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:05pm Jun 10, 2012 3:05pm
Quoting tubguy
Good to hear I wasn't the only one! This sounds almost exactly like my story.

I only made a couple dollars profit by late Fri before close but after a 4 day battle, I was pleased with it.
That's good that I am not alone. Now EU is opening up with 150 pips gap.
  • #34,072
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:05pm Jun 10, 2012 5:05pm
thanks guys.
i went through my logs and the reason was. little sleep during 3 days, egor grew strong and Egor wanted to married some lady, hahaha.

So no more trading when im really tired, coffee is no substitute for sleep.

-A gap once again, now spain says " si si si"
funny thing is the gap is present on other usd/x pairs, and the "news" were coming off from spain.

Im scouting.

Regards.
  • #34,073
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:17pm Jun 10, 2012 6:17pm
Quoting simpleman
Till that one day I will have lot of foreign capital to close the trades at loss and still a winner.
Foreign capital is very nice to have, but how much will you risk? A few day's worth? Six months? How deep are you prepared to go? If your account was 100k, would you risk 25k in return for a few dollars? Some people can handle it, but I can't trade this way without stress ruining my judgment. Risking a few day's profits suits me fine. ie. a couple of percent. If I gain 1% every day for 4 days and lose 3% on the fifth day, and do this all year long, I'm still making 50% a year. Wouldn't this be a stunning return? How much do people hope to make? At what point does greed cloud judgment?

Quote
What if had gone long after caught up in trend change and closed at loss all the shorts and go long and close at loss all the longs because trend changed again to downside. I would be just like all the other panic traders who are licking their bleeding wounds after Thursday and Fridays up and down.

I find consolidations difficult. If there's no trend, I don't know who to rescue. I keep things small, and never add before the new trend is established.
  • #34,074
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:57pm Jun 10, 2012 8:57pm
None of you guys talk about dancing....

You all are stuck in rescue or attack....

where is the dance...dance determine rescue or attack....

what are you guys doing becoming like a SOFTWARE/ALGOTIHM which trigger...

if this happens do this

else do this....

come on take a reread of this thread....

V
  • #34,075
  • Jun 10, 2012 9:18pm Jun 10, 2012 9:18pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
None of you guys talk about dancing....

You all are stuck in rescue or attack....

where is the dance...dance determine rescue or attack....

what are you guys doing becoming like a SOFTWARE/ALGOTIHM which trigger...

if this happens do this

else do this....

come on take a reread of this thread....

V
just curious to know
but how if our attack suddenly reverse direction and deep underwater and stuck with thin consolidation for a couple a few hours
what do you do ?
thx
regards
  • #34,076
  • Jun 10, 2012 9:52pm Jun 10, 2012 9:52pm
Quoting sumakianlee
just curious to know
but how if our attack suddenly reverse direction and deep underwater and stuck with thin consolidation for a couple a few hours
what do you do ?
thx
regards


Hi there will quote few of FTI line and hope it helps.

If it was when we are at rescue mode or attack mode, then a little discomfort is likely, this is the MO. When a counter impulse wave hits, the move are very swift, sharp and directional, normally against our position.

If such was in our position I call it windfall profit and I initiate profitaking procedures to regroup for a strong skew attack later. .

If such was to my detrement, I call it a @#$% position and I take out the last attack size from the market at a loss, and allow the remaining positions to "bleed".

I then would go back to the charts to check if the impulse is "contained" within the scope of the trend. Normally it would have killed the short chart trend and indicated reversal. It would be good to see if this was so , in the hourly charts.

Then I scan through the other short charts up to the hourly to find the point where the impulse is not reversal to continue a level up rescue, if it exist.

Otherwise, if the hourly chart is impacted the next rescue is 1 level up from the last cut loss size and RESCUE IS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE IMPULSE , this means that the open positions are reversed, as the bleeding stops and built into position as the volatility wanes, normally in such instances, the retraces would hardly be 30 % normally 10%. So the reversal is executed in stages swiftly as the bleeding slows and as soon as the next wave is "felt", the rescue "last+1 level up" is pumped into the market to rescue.

Please be aware that this protocol could expose your book up to 30% in the process. therefore do not overstay the rescue. Bring it back to below 10% as soon as the impulse wave slows off , in volitility. Although, the impulse will continue in lesser volitility, it is unwise to carry high exposures, cut back to a smaller spiral , that you may have possibility to mount another attack, if and when it comes, without spiralling the book to oblivion. This is risk management and it is used to supress the "scorpion" ie greed


if you are trading against changed pictures, you know you are "dead in the waters" So what must you do? If you turn, you lose ground, so you have to decide to trade against trend or sink. right? When this happens , what is the mindset to adopt? If you decide to fight instead, you are trading against the trend, so what should be the mindset, strategy & MO? Remember when you try to turn "on wind again" you work against the law of motion



1. If the position was desirable, then more capital will have to be put at risk
and a rescue of the badly timed position must be effected.
2. If any mitigating factors, disallows for such to be effected, the trader should
bite the bullet, and put the position out of its misery,
until it may be advantages to reinstate.

Further understand the W Wilder loss recovery table.
My advice to you is to change your mindset levels, write off the loss.
As you have hit non recoverable %
Re-strategise your MM base on whats left.
Don't even try to get the loss back.
It may just get you in quicksand environment.
The more you scratch , the more it'll itch.



"damage is part of the battle, recovery is essential , victory is the objective." for every trade.


Sun Zi said.
"A general who has not fully mastered the art of extemporaneous responses may know the terrain like the back of his hand, but will not be able to exploit this to his full advantage."
  • #34,077
  • Jun 10, 2012 9:52pm Jun 10, 2012 9:52pm
Quoting sumakianlee
just curious to know
but how if our attack suddenly reverse direction and deep underwater and stuck with thin consolidation for a couple a few hours
what do you do ?
thx
regards
Well there are multitude of ways...many can tell here... i dont want to go in specifics...but for this...its simple
if you follow advice for attack which is

1,1,2,3

and your rescue is

1,2,3,5,8

even after your attack for 3 there would be 5,8 left to rescue...there is a reason rescue have higher fib then the attack...which while sitting you can rescue if you are not RIGID...or close the scout in profit and partially close the attack without booking any loss or profit...or there are lot of other....

or you can flip...

again there are multitude of ways it comes with experience(for me atleast)...but asking specifically for me shows rigidity more closely kinda short cut to make money...again i might be wrong...

anytime i trade there is only two options ..

1 i will make money

2 i will loose money...my looses are generally never more then 3 X daily earning...

given this already i start my trading with then i just want to feel the market and flow with it and attack /rescue as i feel....

every day trading brings /shows me in closer reality what i am then anything else i have seen in the world...

there is reason FTI teaches humility here..it comes to u in trading...

try driving ferrari for 3 days and then sit and try to trade you will see how hard it is...

V
  • #34,078
  • Jun 10, 2012 9:59pm Jun 10, 2012 9:59pm
Quoting sumakianlee
just curious to know
but how if our attack suddenly reverse direction and deep underwater and stuck with thin consolidation for a couple a few hours
what do you do ?
thx
regards
I would wait and trade the range in my direction adding as much capital as I could to my book until things started going my way.

I was underwater pretty deep for 4 days last week and finally managed to bring it all back with a meager profit.

The way I have come to see it...is...I only take a loss when I close all trades.
Until then, the fight is on!

Ants Work.
  • #34,079
  • Jun 10, 2012 10:06pm Jun 10, 2012 10:06pm
Quoting tubguy
The way I have come to see it...is...I only take a loss when I close all trades.
Until then, the fight is on!

Ants Work.
Something to remember
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #34,080
  • Edited 10:37pm Jun 10, 2012 10:23pm | Edited 10:37pm

what a sick market forex has become.
maybe the gamblers are waiting
for the greese reelection results.
and some trouble in either PIIGGS.
then straight away quote at 1.15 euro
maybe par usd.
instead of trading it.
Seems they not understand shame.
even after what happened to greese.
Totally shameless.
How did the terrain changed to be so shamelessly manipuated.

Instead of change laws make no repayment for debts legal.
why not just change law and make appointments instead of elections.
That would surely allow the achieve their goals.
It would sure make everyone so happy.
so that markets can function again.
panda would be happy, opec would be happy, moncatta would be happy.
only peeps gets screwed is europe with inflation devaluation and ear buzzing taxes.
every one else would be happy.

Russo does it, panda does it.
Maybe even Americano.
Why not eurozone?


regards
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