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  • #141
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:12pm Jun 10, 2012 4:12pm
Quoting Bones
Hey FT I'm here to learn ,
My position hasn't changed tho I will add if we open below that swing low D1 ,which is what I expect

Ive already made a significant amount of money this few months ,enough to actually have a real trading account ,free lol

edit ,not actually free = 5 years hard work
Really? that's great!

Classical TA does work... i just got frustrated with TA alone.

as long as one has an edge and a plan tho, there is no need for anything more.
  • #142
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:19pm Jun 10, 2012 4:19pm
Ft I have added to short ,gap up does not mean up ,but I would not hold much over now



Quoting forextraderx
Really? that's great!

Classical TA does work... i just got frustrated with TA alone.

as long as one has an edge and a plan tho, there is no need for anything more.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #143
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:40pm Jun 10, 2012 4:40pm
Well, you'll be the counter party to a long I took around 2625ish in a little "play" account I have.

not gonna buy long at this price, but if we can get around 2610 or lower, i'll look to do it.

at 2550 or lower, i'll margin out with a long.

that's how strongly I feel about a continued move to the upside over the next couple days.

But, good luck to you with the short.

X
  • #144
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:57pm Jun 10, 2012 4:57pm
cool FT no prob

only one of us can win ,im warning you im on fire lol

next hour I think you will see up = no
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #145
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:34pm Jun 10, 2012 6:34pm
I was thinking about what you said in earlier post say you have millions to spend ,how do you get good price ,do you see possibility ?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #146
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:36pm Jun 10, 2012 6:36pm
Well, my weekend writeup seemed to play out much more so than I ever expected it to.

However, I manged to make a mistake with my first action of the week. I got in long about the worse place I could have, and my stop is also bad (but can't be lower due to my own trading plan rules.... 50 pips is it)

I did reduce the position so a loss would be about 30% less than the original risk... which at least tells me my SECOND trading decision I made today was good, and much better than the first.

Of course, due to my 2 trade restriction for at least today AND tomorrow... i'm regretting it.

I do feel so much.... worry/stress/negativity/etc being relieved however with this 2 trade restriction. It forces me to be sharp at all times, and to immediately look at what I did wrong, and catch it right away.

At any rate, I'm looking to possibly get long around 2600-2620.

I made a post with pictures over on my blog here:

http://currencytraderx.wordpress.com/

At any rate... I might be 100% right about the day and the week, and yet lose money today. However, I have learned something about this, and in a way that I feel is more significant than usual.

I still have clarity and confidence, and it's also tempered now with a desire for precision in any other action I take today.

This.... is just where I should be to do my best over the next 12-16 hours.

X
  • #147
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:37pm Jun 10, 2012 6:37pm
Quoting Bones
I was thinking about what you said in earlier post say you have millions to spend ,how do you get good price ,do you see possibility ?
which post? and what do you mean by "millions"?
  • #148
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:50pm Jun 10, 2012 6:50pm
cant find now im seeing double 1 am here ,only im sure you said traders need to enter big orders have trouble getting thier order in (size) or somthing that these traders are smart ,anyway i liked it
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #149
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:01pm Jun 10, 2012 7:01pm
Quoting Bones
cant find now im seeing double 1 am here ,only im sure you said traders need to enter big orders have trouble getting thier order in (size) or somthing that these traders are smart ,anyway i liked it

Ahhh..yes, ok. right. check my blog actually... I think I have a post or a page called "REAL support and resistance"

it'll basically give 2 examples of that idea playing out.

and ya... that's why breakout often fail...and why I like to get short or long around those areas...

oops...can't show cuz trade explorer is having problems with graphs right now.

but, anyway, check the blog. it'll be interesting i believe

X
  • #150
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:56pm Jun 10, 2012 7:56pm
at this point, i'd take about half off, and move my stop to 10 pips below my entry, to make a risk free trade.

oh well. this is what i get for acting too quickly.

the blog has more details.

X
  • #151
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:23pm Jun 10, 2012 8:23pm
Quoting Bones
cool FT no prob

only one of us can win ,im warning you im on fire lol

next hour I think you will see up = no
Ya know... this reminds me of the time the brits announced a QE back around october 6th of 2011.

the market had dropped 1300 pips, and all for very good reasons... many reasons to be fearful of long GBP....

the announce a QE...the market goes nuts down...and then within 24 hours, reverses and is higher than when the QE announcement came out.

It then retraced about 900 pips and when everyone was getting long, of course the real downtrend continued.

I now place a very significant degree of importance to the concept "when bad news happens, but the market moves up.... the market is actually incredibly strong"

This is one example of many many I could give... but, it's a recent one and I think is a good one.

One would think QE and trend and such would dictate a continued move down....

but not until a full blown short squeeze developed over a 900ish pip retracement.

Now, I COULD BE 100% DEAD WRONG....

but, this just feels very, very similar.

at any rate... 1hr later..we are holding near the highs, and bouncing off of the very first possible support line...

but i'm jealous of your size bones. i'll trade you this analysis and my account for yours eh?

X
  • #152
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:30pm Jun 10, 2012 8:30pm
we hold highs but ,do you see warning ,on h4 ,

also aud usd
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #153
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:37pm Jun 10, 2012 8:37pm
Quoting Bones
we hold highs but ,do you see warning ,on h4 ,
I see it, ya... and I completely agree it looks like a bearish reversal candle of sorts, and it is occuring on a trendline retest, and at an area of resistance, so ya, i fully expect us to test 2600 before moving up to say, 2700...

but what i'm saying, is if this circumstance is like the others i've seen... that pinbar/doji/whatever candle will result in a weakish selloff, and for all the shorts that come into the market, even more older shorts will cover, pushing the new shorts into a loss, and they cover, and this repeats as a vicious cycle continuing to surprise the general market participants.

And I believe this is quite likely to happen, because the times when I've seen it happen most predictably before, were the times when bad news about something came out, but the market ignored it and moved up.

or, when good news came out, and the market ignored it and moved down.

Lemme put it this way... If a company stock is at a record high price, and the come out that day and announce to the world that they have made "RECORD BREAKING EARNINGS" and "We are raising guidiance to double what we expected to make this year"

and yet...the stock price actually closes down at the end of the day, and more at the end of the week...

You tell me, if you would want to be the person buying this stock in this circumstance.

I see this eur/usd as a very similar situation.

X
  • #154
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:45pm Jun 10, 2012 8:45pm
to make a final comment... healthy markets respond positive to positive news.

sick markets respond negative to negative news.

markets that do the opposite are in fact, usually actually the opposite of what most see them to be.

bad news but market goes up? this is in fact a healthy market

good news but market goes down? this is in fact a sick market.

X
  • #155
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:47pm Jun 10, 2012 8:47pm
October 2011 there were wicks on monthly ,also read story ,tl loss

I do see the support ,,I have cable currently at falling tl ,but gbp will wait for eur gbp to fill gap to show colors I feel



Quoting forextraderx
Ya know... this reminds me of the time the brits announced a QE back around october 6th of 2011.

the market had dropped 1300 pips, and all for very good reasons... many reasons to be fearful of long GBP....

the announce a QE...the market goes nuts down...and then within 24 hours, reverses and is higher than when the QE announcement came out.

It then retraced about 900 pips and when everyone was getting long, of course the real downtrend continued.

I now place a very significant degree of importance to the concept "when bad news happens,...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable monthly 11-6-12.png Size: 33 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #156
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:53pm Jun 10, 2012 8:53pm
Quoting Bones
October 2011 there were wicks on monthly ,also read story ,tl loss

I do see the support ,,I have cable currently at falling tl ,but gbp will wait for eur gbp to fill gap to show colors I feel
Ok, then let me ask you this. When the week ended on october 7th, and I told you "this could run several hundered pips higher, maybe even 1000"

is there anything on a chart that would have you saying "ok, yes, i totally agree that it could happen, and i will be looking to get long at this point for a while"?

X
  • #157
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:56pm Jun 10, 2012 8:56pm
yes look at weekly ,I wouldnt know how much at time ,also I use lfx charts
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #158
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:59pm Jun 10, 2012 8:59pm
TBH things really only started to come togther this year for me
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #159
  • Jun 10, 2012 9:02pm Jun 10, 2012 9:02pm
Quoting Bones
yes look at weekly ,I wouldnt know how much at time ,also I use lfx charts
ok. touche'

weekly clearly shows massive reversal implications.

and of course I wouldn't know how high either, but I would have strong conviction we could see at least 230-360 pips, and possibly more.

ok then... good points...and I guess this will be very interesting then for both of us to see as sort of another "test case"... to see if my hypothesis is as strong as I currently think, or if I should in the future put a bit less into it, or consider more the cirucmstances or price action around it...

good. very good. now we have something I feel I can really learn from as well

X
  • #160
  • Jun 10, 2012 9:08pm Jun 10, 2012 9:08pm
Quoting Custos
good reasoning! Finally I can learn from somebody again! There are not a lot of people like you in this forum.
Thanks Cus! that's what this is all about... learning.

we all have different angles we can improve.

for me, my psych is below par.

my market knowledge is significantly above par

my analysis is usually above par.

unfortunately, the psych is the most important part! lol

anyway, we're all here for learning, and I feel i'm getting that out of this so far, glad to see you are too

X
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