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  • #121
  • Edited 10:03pm Jun 9, 2012 9:20pm | Edited 10:03pm
Quoting Zac
Heres a cut n paste of my graphic lol and accurately quoted
Nice, thanks. Well...it actually IMO would seem pretty clear as to what you should really work on the most: do whatever you can to have as many "warning" lights to clue you in on when you are maybe getting too emotionally involved with a market idea... and then, develop a specific plan to address that.

Test this plan, and modify it as necessary. Once it feels right, and is showing promise, work it until it's hardwired into you.

Therefore insulating you from this personal pitfall, and building a situation that you are only trading when your strengths are expressing themselves, not your weaknesses.

Get that down, build a method around that and yourself, and your set (if you haven't already done so of course...)

X

P.S. The most direct, effective way to handle such would be to recognize this, and then just cease all market activity until you no longer are in this emotional state... however, I find that at those times, it will take nothing less than a well constructed well practiced and often rehersed plan just to stop! good luck tho... it's completely manageable if recognized and worked on.
  • #122
  • Jun 9, 2012 11:36pm Jun 9, 2012 11:36pm
Something i've decided to put together recently and include in my trading plan is what i'm calling a "hazard checklist". Basically, it's a quantifiable pattern, condition, situation, etc that, when present, will often act on the market with such singular directional bias that I have found it just very dangerous to trade against.

I'm posting some of the better, more universal filters on my blog...

the point is to demonstrate a list of "gold standard filters" that I believe a good trading plan will likely include, because there are certain situations in the market that, when they occur, a trade against them is just so overwhelmingly likely to fail, it's best to avoid trading against them at all.

Here's a link. feel free to post some of your own ideas here, or at the blog. I'd like to see what others could consider "no brainer" trade filters.

X

The Link: http://currencytraderx.wordpress.com...ard-checklist/
  • #123
  • Jun 10, 2012 2:28am Jun 10, 2012 2:28am
I don't understand much about it.. i'll try to work out more to be better.. (so please help me God)
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You are a Fun-Loving Trader (I do better when i have fun)
  • #124
  • Jun 10, 2012 2:39am Jun 10, 2012 2:39am
Quoting tuakblues
I don't understand much about it.. i'll try to work out more to be better.. (so please help me God)
Not sure I have any opinion on this type of assessment. I do know the rewards for trading other than monetary are extremely abstract...

that, and I think one needs to like watching a chart for hours at a time, taking careful notes, and basically working alone, away from the outside world, day in, day out. It helps if this person is one to deal with many possibilities, and yet choose one action without any guarantee of success.

well, at least to be a day trader. longer term traders only need to do this a few times a week, or a few times a month.

If this applies to you, then you probably have what it takes to acheive some success...if you focus on this as a goal for the next couple of years.

X
  • #125
  • Jun 10, 2012 2:49am Jun 10, 2012 2:49am
Quoting forextraderx
Not sure I have any opinion on this type of assessment. I do know the rewards for trading other than monetary are extremely abstract...

that, and I think one needs to like watching a chart for hours at a time, taking careful notes, and basically working alone, away from the outside world, day in, day out. It helps if this person is one to deal with many possibilities, and yet choose one action without any guarantee of success.

well, at least to be a day trader. longer term traders only need to do this a few times a week, or a few times a month.

If...
I think it refer to my seriousness in trading.. i did realize, some of my open trade are not in serious method. I often lost focus in my important trading due to lack of resources and less than 50% understand what is happening in the market. In this FF i believe i can gain a lot of great research and do some minor analysis to guide me thought out the trading hours.

* Especially your post in this FF and other places . hahahahaha
You are a Fun-Loving Trader (I do better when i have fun)
  • #126
  • Jun 10, 2012 2:59am Jun 10, 2012 2:59am
Quoting tuakblues
I think it refer to my seriousness in trading.. i did realize, some of my open trade are not in serious method. I often lost focus in my important trading due to lack of resources and less than 50% understand what is happening in the market. In this FF i believe i can gain a lot of great research and do some minor analysis to guide me thought out the trading hours.

* Especially your post in this FF and other places . hahahahaha
Well, that's normal for most when your new to trading anyway. at least it was for me to some degree.

and thanks.... I actually firmly believe that my posts can really guide a aspiring trader to at least know what they need to learn, and how it can all play a role in helping them gain a decent edge in the market.

The irony is that I bet for every 100 people who are not profitable who read my thread, about 99 of them will ignore most of what I suggest is helpful to understanding what is more likely to happen next in a market.

And, i bet a full 50% or more will decide that some colorful indicator or two is really where they will find success, and those will trot off elsewhere.

Honestly? it's a darn good thing. My job is hard work enough as it is, i'd rather not flood the field with a great deal of well informed competitors.

I feel that when a person is both willing AND ready, the information they seek regarding what they want to learn will provide itself to them at that juncture.

X
  • #127
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:56am Jun 10, 2012 3:56am
Well, in about 13 hours, the markets will be officially open. And I really can't say i'm looking forward to it.

I'll probably feel different when the time comes, but as of thsi moment, I feel it's just a bit of a competition that takes a high degree of committment and focus to win.

and I am enjoying a somewhat lazy weekend.

Also, wrote up some Op Ed post on my blog regarding likely euro bias going into this week... and i'm really going to watch to make sure what i put in writing here doesn't color my analysis tomorrow, or any other day.

If it does, then such an op ed piece will be a first and a last for me of course, but i feel for the most part that it won't do that. I am contrary by nature, even with regards to my own previous thoughts and conclusions.

not fickle mind you, just contrary. guess this is probably the right line of work for that divisive character trait of mine.

I do feel a good deal of relief knowing that I can only take two trades tomorrow... i's again the perfect amount considering i'm not right now feeling up to a full blown cover to cover top to bottom analysis of all the G8 currencies. I can choose 1 or 2, focus on them, and take the 1 or two trades that develop out of them.

huh... just typing that out... the fact I have 2 ttrades, and how it is comforting...it actually makes me feel much better about tomorrow already.

apathy has been replaced with mild optimism. hmm... i wonder what this says about me. Maybe being spread too thin has bothered me more than i ever realized.

Again,, time will tell, but I'll be keen to watch for this as the weeks go on.

Not sure if I will post my specific numbers here before trading, or even my sentiment analysis. I wrestle with that sometimes, like I would feel uncomfortable giving my social security number out.

particularly the levels i'm looking at. sentiment analysis not SO much... but, still.

Ahh...it's not a huge deal either way tho, and It helps me see more clearly not just what i understood things to be, but also how i felt about them, etc... so i probably will post the sentiment if nothing else.

ALl I can say with conviction at this point is I believe risk on will be the flavor of asia open, and maybe even the week as a whole.

I just need to figure out which of the risk currencies will be likely to provide the best opportunities to take advantage of this bias.

well, good. All in all, it looks pretty easy going into tomorrow. Will post up more when tomorrow arrives.

X
  • #128
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:07am Jun 10, 2012 4:07am
Quoting forextraderx
I just write up a rather lengthy article on my perspective of the euro currency and how it may trade over the next few weeks... I'd think most will find it interesting, and really, I would like whoever sees it and disagrees to post the flaws as they seem them over there.

I think i'm right, but I really want to use this as an opportunity for "flaw finding"... if this exercise provides some overwhelming evidence one way or the other, we could all as a group stand to gain some insight on the directional bias of the euro over the next few weeks.

X

The...
good article. I think right now there are more positive than negative news in general, especially spain wanting rescue funds. I think once the EU allows them to access that money, it will be a good sign to the market, that at least temporarily things don't get worse.
The rest is regarding the eur/usd:
From a tape reading perspective, this was the first rally since the long down-trend, that actually had large volume behind the long candles (H4) indicating that not only short have been covered but maybe longs have been initiated.
However, if we compare this swing (on the weekly) to the past down swings, it would still have some price movement to the downside, possibly to 1.2000. Time-wise, we also still have some weekly candles left until the average time-length of the recent down swings is reached.
If we look at the long-term S/R's, in my opinion, we are just bouncing against an S/R level from below. So, the downside is favored here.

So, conclusion, I am not quite certain at this moment which direction is more likely. From a fundamental perspective and volume perspective, a long is favored. From a technical perspective a short is favored in my opinion.
  • #129
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:21am Jun 10, 2012 4:21am
Quoting Custos
good article. I think right now there are more positive than negative news in general, especially spain wanting rescue funds. I think once the EU allows them to access that money, it will be a good sign to the market, that at least temporarily things don't get worse.
The rest is regarding the eur/usd:
From a tape reading perspective, this was the first rally since the long down-trend, that actually had large volume behind the long candles (H4) indicating that not only short have been covered but maybe longs have been initiated.
However,...
ok, cool... I agree with what your seeing, but thanks for mentioning the average duration and time symmetry factors regarding the move down... I think at least a retest of the highs...and more likely a move up to around 2660-2700 is really where i'm looking for the EU to get... after that, i'm not so sure, but I wouldn't feel compelled too any great extent to start putting on a significant short position that targets the lows of the year so far...

around 2775-2830 I WOULD be willing to take this bet, if things are looking right in general. It may lose, I acknowledge that... but I'd be willing to say "Ok, from here, I see ample reason to justify taking the risk of a euro retest of the lows of the year."

but, from here to there, i'll probably go both ways, with a bit of an eye towards my long trades being higher risk, more pips, and needing less "management"

X
  • #130
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:29am Jun 10, 2012 4:29am
Quoting forextraderx
ok, cool... I agree with what your seeing, but thanks for mentioning the average duration and time symmetry factors regarding the move down... I think at least a retest of the highs...and more likely a move up to around 2660-2700 is really where i'm looking for the EU to get... after that, i'm not so sure, but I wouldn't feel compelled too any great extent to start putting on a significant short position that targets the lows of the year so far...

around 2775-2830 I WOULD be willing to take this bet, if things are looking right in general. It may...
good reasoning! Finally I can learn from somebody again! There are not a lot of people like you in this forum.
  • #131
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:29am Jun 10, 2012 7:29am
Hi Forextraderx
Ive enjoyed reading how you approach your reading of the markets ,very insightful ,its great you are sharing here and look forward to reading more ,
Personally I am very much correlated type trader I try to read as many charts as poss for confluence because its all so connected ,I do feel bullish $ and I am trading with that in mind this week ,
You can also see this move on Eur Usd

Usd Lfx target 1.7400


Thanks

Tony


Quoting forextraderx
Well, in about 13 hours, the markets will be officially open. And I really can't say i'm looking forward to it.

I'll probably feel different when the time comes, but as of thsi moment, I feel it's just a bit of a competition that takes a high degree of committment and focus to win.

and I am enjoying a somewhat lazy weekend.

Also, wrote up some Op Ed post on my blog regarding likely euro bias going into this week... and i'm really going to watch to make sure what i put in writing here doesn't color my analysis tomorrow, or any other day....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd lfx d1 9-6-12.gif Size: 17 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #132
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:57am Jun 10, 2012 7:57am
then I'm looking at eur and I could apply calculation

2.1000 /1.7400=1.2068

which is above my target ,but confluence

also is possible on eu monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur lfx w1 9-6-12.gif Size: 22 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #133
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:07am Jun 10, 2012 8:07am
then eur usd ,hang man off swing low ,im building picture ,im wanting to see bears straight away ,if so I have confidence that im right
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu hangman use 10-6.png Size: 43 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #134
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:08pm Jun 10, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting forextraderx
Well, in about 13 hours, the markets will be officially open. And I really can't say i'm looking forward to it.

I'll probably feel different when the time comes, but as of thsi moment, I feel it's just a bit of a competition that takes a high degree of committment and focus to win.

and I am enjoying a somewhat lazy weekend.

Also, wrote up some Op Ed post on my blog regarding likely euro bias going into this week... and i'm really going to watch to make sure what i put in writing here doesn't color my analysis tomorrow, or any other day....
Something happened to me last week regarding this stuff that hasn't happened in a long time.

I set a pending EU short that was going flat. Basically bouncing between a 20 pip range. So like an idiot started reading others opinion on the EU here on FF. I think you know where this is going. But to take up memory on the FF servers I will continue.

The opinion I read was a compelling argument that the EU was going to climb. After closing my position at 10 pips profit and feeling good about myself I went to bed only to wake up and see that my plan was the right one. Left 110 pips on the table because I reverted back to newby status and was considering what everyone else said more important then my own analysis/plan.

So relearned it again. At least it did not "cost" me pips. Just left them there for someone else.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #135
  • Jun 10, 2012 1:44pm Jun 10, 2012 1:44pm
It is 02.33 am in my country.. I cant sleep. I'm in doubt of what will it be when i have to resign early next year. The word have come out that my boss will not support my application for extension of service. But i still have chance if the General board accept my application. I did not have any good trader around me here, but all the good one are in this FF. With some saving, i plan to invest 3000 usd (10000 MYR) in my trading. I'm very lack of controlling my emotion and lack of control the margin. Hopefully i can absorb and learn a simple way to plan every time i want to open a trade. Thank you for sharing the knowledge and skill of Forex here.
You are a Fun-Loving Trader (I do better when i have fun)
  • #136
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:19pm Jun 10, 2012 3:19pm
Quoting Bones
then eur usd ,hang man off swing low ,im building picture ,im wanting to see bears straight away ,if so I have confidence that im right
Well bones, I would address all 3 charts...and they looked good in theory, but as of the EU being up over 150 pips in the premarket....

I had one entry, with a "never gonna happen until asia opens" target of about 110 pips.

now, i feel silly that 110 was all I got on it.

If only I knew ahead of time when results like this were gonna happen.

Here's to crystal balls.

X
  • #137
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:25pm Jun 10, 2012 3:25pm
haha so true ,but all is not lost I'm looking for open below D1 swing low eu 1.2624
gap into res

I should have expected really this area is gap city ,I am short quite heavy

but I must not disregard the inverted hammer

gaps I think confuse people
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur lfx w1 9-6-12 no 2.gif Size: 23 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #138
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:40pm Jun 10, 2012 3:40pm
Quoting tuakblues
It is 02.33 am in my country.. I cant sleep. I'm in doubt of what will it be when i have to resign early next year. The word have come out that my boss will not support my application for extension of service. But i still have chance if the General board accept my application. I did not have any good trader around me here, but all the good one are in this FF. With some saving, i plan to invest 3000 usd (10000 MYR) in my trading. I'm very lack of controlling my emotion and lack of control the margin. Hopefully i can absorb and learn a simple way...
Your welcome. I wish I could say it is "simple" for me to trade...but it isn't. But even with simple, prepare to take 2 years minimum to "get it"

Good luck with everything
  • #139
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:44pm Jun 10, 2012 3:44pm
Quoting Bones
haha so true ,but all is not lost I'm looking for open below D1 swing low eu 1.2624
gap into res

I should have expected really this area is gap city ,I am short quite heavy

but I must not disregard the inverted hammer

gaps I think confuse people
Ya know, that's the problem i find with classical TA. it's really limiting, as it ignores the driving context of the market.

Personally, I never was much for it. more of a "find the big orders and front run em'" type of technical analysis for me... but I do know it does work well for some.

Bones, this is where a very well developed skill set of sentiment analysis could have really helped.

Remember, market participants make decisions in the market to enter or exit primarily via one of three forms of analysis: technical, fundamental, and sentimental.

If you want to really increase your win rate....learn to use all three, and learn to see it as the OTHER market participants see it.

then, you'll know when it is wise to ignore a tech signal, or a sentiment signal, etc...
  • #140
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:50pm Jun 10, 2012 3:50pm
Hey FT I'm here to learn ,
My position hasn't changed tho I will add if we open below that swing low D1 ,which is what I expect

Ive already made a significant amount of money this few months ,enough to actually have a real trading account ,free lol

edit ,not actually free = 5 years hard work
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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