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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #34,041
  • Jun 9, 2012 4:05am Jun 9, 2012 4:05am
Quoting phil13
Hi nathaniel

I think this post from fti regarding historical data/prices and ones ability to flow/dance in the market may help you understand why you are having trouble with your own expectations of what you think the market should be doing.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post2072640


post 3067.


regards


Phil


p.s thanks jimborders for the v.
Thanks for pointing this out, Phil!

I also had a realization about why i cannot let my profits run. I understand now that i have been overleveraging. My attack sequence is this: 1, 3, 6. I even tried 1,3, 6, 6 yesterday. I was worried that if price was to suddenly turn against me, i did not have enough troops left to rescue the ones in battle. That is why i will book a profit as soon as i sense price reversing. Not exactly the best way to fight battles huh? I have to change my attack sequence. Perhaps 1,3,3 until i have a better feel of the markets and terrain...
  • #34,042
  • Jun 9, 2012 6:06am Jun 9, 2012 6:06am
Quoting nathaniel
Thanks for pointing this out, Phil!

I also had a realization about why i cannot let my profits run. I understand now that i have been overleveraging. My attack sequence is this: 1, 3, 6. I even tried 1,3, 6, 6 yesterday. I was worried that if price was to suddenly turn against me, i did not have enough troops left to rescue the ones in battle. That is why i will book a profit as soon as i sense price reversing. Not exactly the best way to fight battles huh? I have to change my attack sequence. Perhaps 1,3,3 until i have a better feel of the...

"If the army is marching 100 miles, only 1/10 warrior arrive at your destination.
If 50 miles only 1/2
If 30 miles only 2/3 ..."

One defender is able to handle max. four attackers.
  • #34,043
  • Jun 9, 2012 6:32am Jun 9, 2012 6:32am
Quoting sumakianlee
Harshness vanished. A sudden softness
has replaced the meadows' wintry grey.
Little rivulets of water changed
their singing accents. Tendernesses,

hesitantly, reach toward the earth
from space, and country lanes are showing
these unexpected subtle risings
that find expression in the empty trees.
Rainer Maria Rilke

rgs
... the fit or adapt the ...
  • #34,044
  • Jun 9, 2012 6:47am Jun 9, 2012 6:47am
Quoting Gro
"If the army is marching 100 miles, only 1/10 warrior arrive at your destination.
If 50 miles only 1/2
If 30 miles only 2/3 ..."

One defender is able to handle max. four attackers.
Keep attacks short and sweet?

Don't quite get the 1 defender and 4 attackers part though...
  • #34,045
  • Jun 9, 2012 7:16am Jun 9, 2012 7:16am
Quoting nathaniel
Thanks for pointing this out, Phil!

I also had a realization about why i cannot let my profits run. I understand now that i have been overleveraging. My attack sequence is this: 1, 3, 6. I even tried 1,3, 6, 6 yesterday. I was worried that if price was to suddenly turn against me, i did not have enough troops left to rescue the ones in battle. That is why i will book a profit as soon as i sense price reversing. Not exactly the best way to fight battles huh? I have to change my attack sequence. Perhaps 1,3,3 until i have a better feel of the...
Fib attack: 1+1+2+3+5+8+13+.......
Newbie attack: 1+1+1+1+1

I can't maximize until very good at recognizing flow and chart patterns till then I use newbie attack or little higher i.e. 1+1+2+2+2+2. and still make very good gains. I also close positions from time to time if I am overloaded, no harm in doing that then loosing profits.

When I rescue I do not care about sequence much other than staying close to price/average.

But it is just me and of us are different people..
  • #34,046
  • Jun 9, 2012 1:03pm Jun 9, 2012 1:03pm
Hello friends,
what a though week!
It seems to be that i need a hobby to get my head off the markets sometimes. Any recommendations?

This week i forgot one of my favorite quotes. " know what to keep, know what to throw away". After having the best year ever i gave back to the ocean lots of the fish that i had collected.

"almost lost my balls "

What do you recommend to change the mindset?

Regards.
  • #34,047
  • Jun 9, 2012 1:07pm Jun 9, 2012 1:07pm
Quoting daytek

What do you recommend to change the mindset?
Keep a trading journal and learn from mistakes
  • #34,048
  • Jun 9, 2012 1:51pm Jun 9, 2012 1:51pm
Quoting daytek
Hello friends,
what a though week!
It seems to be that i need a hobby to get my head off the markets sometimes. Any recommendations?

This week i forgot one of my favorite quotes. " know what to keep, know what to throw away". After having the best year ever i gave back to the ocean lots of the fish that i had collected.

"almost lost my balls "

What do you recommend to change the mindset?

Regards.

Hi daytek


AOW......


15. Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.



Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #34,049
  • Jun 9, 2012 2:11pm Jun 9, 2012 2:11pm
Quoting Gro
"If the army is marching 100 miles, only 1/10 warrior arrive at your destination.
If 50 miles only 1/2
If 30 miles only 2/3 ..."

One defender is able to handle max. four attackers.
Very nice
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #34,050
  • Jun 9, 2012 9:14pm Jun 9, 2012 9:14pm
Quoting phil13
Hi daytek


AOW......


15. Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.



Regards...
hi,,, simpleman and phil 13,,
I appreciate your patience and passion to explain in detail
regards
  • #34,051
  • Jun 9, 2012 9:16pm Jun 9, 2012 9:16pm
Quoting daytek
Hello friends,
what a though week!
It seems to be that i need a hobby to get my head off the markets sometimes. Any recommendations?

This week i forgot one of my favorite quotes. " know what to keep, know what to throw away". After having the best year ever i gave back to the ocean lots of the fish that i had collected.

"almost lost my balls "

What do you recommend to change the mindset?

Regards.

hi,, daytek,,

yes you can do some hobby,,,
just don"t do hobby like fishing
because it can be eaten by octopus
like dear Aunt Mabel
ha ha,,,
please ,, no offense,,, only joking,,
regards

Inserted Video
  • #34,052
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:08am Jun 10, 2012 12:08am
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8570EZ20120608

regards
  • #34,053
  • Jun 10, 2012 2:39am Jun 10, 2012 2:39am
Inserted Video


I think it's amazing how a group of similar, semi-autonomous objects responding to the same forces can produce a range of regular behaviors, then descend into total chaos, only to reform regularity.

Some deep truth here. Think of stock market crashes, world wars and climate change.
  • #34,054
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:52am Jun 10, 2012 4:52am
Quoting sumakianlee
hi,, daytek,,

yes you can do some hobby,,,
just don"t do hobby like fishing
because it can be eaten by octopus
like dear Aunt Mabel
ha ha,,,
please ,, no offense,,, only joking,,
regards

http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&fe...&v=YEW96mect_o

Hi Suma


funny you should mention fishing, I am off catfishing this afternoon for the next five long days, nothing better than just me and nature for some r and r to reset yourself, no market, no internet, no stress, no phones and no work , I would like to say and the lovely sun beating down on me, but this is the uk .


If you do not hear from me again suspect the octopus


regards


Phil


p.s fishing and the markets have more in common than you may think.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #34,055
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:15am Jun 10, 2012 5:15am
Quoting daytek
Hello friends,
what a though week!
It seems to be that i need a hobby to get my head off the markets sometimes. Any recommendations?

This week i forgot one of my favorite quotes. " know what to keep, know what to throw away". After having the best year ever i gave back to the ocean lots of the fish that i had collected.

"almost lost my balls "

What do you recommend to change the mindset?

Regards.
Follow the trend, don't panic. If have fear than lower your position size and see how you do it when rescue.

Three days ago got caught up when the trend changed, I was short 12411 and market went up to 126+. In between I had lots several shorts and take profits which kept my account in plus but the original positions were still there and then market started turning back I had some shorts at 12617 as well which I closed with profits when it came back down and the original position at 12411 closed at 12445 with just 34 pips loss but during this process made 200 pips without panicking, so it is important to "know your enemy and know yourself".
  • #34,056
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:07am Jun 10, 2012 6:07am
If you do not hear from me again suspect the octopus

regards


Phil


p.s fishing and the markets have more in common than you may think....[/quote] ya ,, ya,, ya,,,
agree,, agree,,phil,,,,,,,,,
regards
suma

Inserted Video
  • #34,057
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:11am Jun 10, 2012 7:11am
Quoting simpleman
Follow the trend, don't panic. If have fear than lower your position size and see how you do it when rescue.

Three days ago got caught up when the trend changed, I was short 12411 and market went up to 126+. In between I had lots several shorts and take profits which kept my account in plus but the original positions were still there and then market started turning back I had some shorts at 12617 as well which I closed with profits when it came back down and the original position at 12411 closed at 12445 with just 34 pips loss but during this process...
What if the market doesn't give you those handy retracements along the way, but just takes off like a rocket in the wrong direction and keeps on going? It will do this, one day, while you calmly wait for relief that never comes.

Didn't fti say, "Never rescue against the trend"? Have I misunderstood him completely? To me, that's one of the best bits of advice in the whole TAF thread. But to practice this, I need to have a very shrewd idea of what the trend is doing in my particular time frame, and I also need to be willing to take small losses. If I can identify the trend, any number of entry criteria can be used for the attack sequence. If I can detect the trend is changing, I can exit safely and well.

The trend is my friend, until it turns. Being able to recognize my friend in battle (and knowing when he's turning into my enemy) means the difference between living and dying. This is how I see it, anyway.
  • #34,058
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:13am Jun 10, 2012 7:13am
Quoting sumakianlee
hi,,, simpleman and phil 13,,
I appreciate your patience and passion to explain in detail
regards
Explain what?!?The selection memory recognizes just turn up, "as it fits".
What does it mean "know yourself"?Catching around in its own tail?

Great genius in the human era, wrote a treasure of wisdom ... but who would read that?

Search in AOW
How can we know the winners
As we hold in the hands of fate
Five characteristics of a winner
Moral and principles
Art control:Crowds,Spirit,Heart,Circumstances
Five dangers
Six errors:Escape, panic, exhaustion, destruction, chaos, retreat
Know Sky and Land
Secret head and tail
Attack fire
Use scout

and etc.
Rgs
  • #34,059
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:41am Jun 10, 2012 7:41am
Quoting daytek
Hello friends,
what a though week!
It seems to be that i need a hobby to get my head off the markets sometimes. Any recommendations?

This week i forgot one of my favorite quotes. " know what to keep, know what to throw away". After having the best year ever i gave back to the ocean lots of the fish that i had collected.

"almost lost my balls "

What do you recommend to change the mindset?

Regards.

any hobby that will push you to leave home will do, I would reccomend: martial arts, cycling, running, cross fit, gym, all of it makes me feel better, unfortuately due to lack of time I can stick only to running and cross fit



as about the technical analysis. I focus on EUR/USD and really can't see a way to focus only on TA (I think it is important to know it, but would not rely on it without news). Maybe there are markets where it will work, but on Eur/Usd I cannot trade without news, it would be like following crowd of people with eyes shut, you will know you're going somewhere but you've no idea why. I am reading Technical Analysis for Dummies at the moment. And it says in some point that technical analysis can work and can fail. My manager (not related to trading) took a look at my book once and found this sentence and asked me: if it may work may not work what is the point of it? ;-)
On my way to financial independence - if others can do it - I can do it
  • #34,060
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:46am Jun 10, 2012 7:46am
Quoting AllanS
What if the market doesn't give you those handy retracements along the way, but just takes off like a rocket in the wrong direction and keeps on going? It will do this, one day, while you calmly wait for relief that never comes.

Didn't fti say, "Never rescue against the trend"? Have I misunderstood him completely? To me, that's one of the best bits of advice in the whole TAF thread. But to practice this, I need to have a very shrewd idea of what the trend is doing in my particular time frame, and I also need...
Is there a link to that post?
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