gbp.usd Weekly pivot to Weekly S1/R1 stats from 2001-2010 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: gbp.usd Weekly pivot to Weekly S1/R1 stats from 2001-2010
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gbp.usd Weekly pivot to Weekly S1/R1 stats from 2001-2010

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Feb 11, 2016 9:07pm Jun 8, 2012 12:30pm | Edited Feb 11, 2016 9:07pm
Expired
  • #2
  • Jun 8, 2012 2:00pm Jun 8, 2012 2:00pm
PlZ attach pic of trade
  • #3
  • Jun 8, 2012 4:26pm Jun 8, 2012 4:26pm
This looks intresting Please give more details I have become a big fan of Pivots of late and would be very intrested in this.
Thank You James16, Fijitrader, Mbqb1, ghous, Pinbar and Jarroo. cpfleger
  • #4
  • Jun 8, 2012 4:45pm Jun 8, 2012 4:45pm
"...along the %'s that the Fib ratios were it." Please explain...Thanks.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #5
  • Jun 8, 2012 7:42pm Jun 8, 2012 7:42pm
There is actually a picture included in the spread sheet, but I've attached 2 to be reviewed.

This isn't isn't a system in itself, but can help you determine when it enter a trade, take profit or move stops. Example, if price opens above the WP, you can determine how likely the weekly R1 will be hit.

This week it didn't happen. After the big selloff, price opened below the WP then reversed. If you switched your fib the Weekly R1 when it closed back above the WP, then you have traded it to the the 23% level. etc. etc.

Pippo - the %'s I mentioned are the %'s that price will strike the Fib levels should price open above or below. See my charts I've attached and you'll see price reversed on Tuesday after touching the 50% level.

In the attached spread sheets, I've included the stats on what the likelihood of that being hit.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp example 1.jpg Size: 117 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp example 2.jpg Size: 114 KB
  • #6
  • Jun 9, 2012 12:31pm Jun 9, 2012 12:31pm
Quoting pip_hunter
There is actually a picture included in the spread sheet, but I've attached 2 to be reviewed.

This isn't isn't a system in itself, but can help you determine when it enter a trade, take profit or move stops. Example, if price opens above the WP, you can determine how likely the weekly R1 will be hit.

This week it didn't happen. After the big selloff, price opened below the WP then reversed. If you switched your fib the Weekly R1 when it closed back above the WP, then you have traded it to the the 23% level. etc. etc.

Pippo - the %'s I mentioned...

Please explain in a little more detail the entry, SL and TP?
  • #7
  • Jun 9, 2012 12:58pm Jun 9, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting aelimian
Please explain in a little more detail the entry, SL and TP?
Hi Aelimian,

As i stated in post 1, it's not really a trading system. I just wasn't sure where to post it.

There is no entry or exit for this other than what you find works for you.
It allows you to know where areas of Support and Resistance lies along with justifiable targets.

Example if price is near the weekly R1 and it's Wednesday , opening a new long position has a lower probability of success... in my book anyway.

This is just is one of the tools I use. for me personally, I use it to and from the weekly pivot, with S1/R1's being my primary targets.

I just got tired of doing fibs here and there and then time frames, so I sat down one Saturday and tried thinking like a Dealer and I found it.

Is that what they use? I don't know, but using the fibs like I posted have been consistent form 2001 and if you go back on Forex Tester or any type of program like that, you will see that it holds up even in the big crash like 07. Once the levels is taken out, move the fib to or S2/R2 and so on.

Thanks,
PH
  • #8
  • Jun 9, 2012 2:00pm Jun 9, 2012 2:00pm
Interesting info. I noticed the e/u using this was unable to close above 1.2560 which was the 161.8 and the g/u reached 1.56 but could not close above that which happened to be the 161.8 level of course measuring starting from fib level 0 at S1 and 100 at the pivot.
  • #9
  • Edited 2:41pm Jun 9, 2012 2:24pm | Edited 2:41pm
Quoting ferndog
Interesting info. I noticed the e/u using this was unable to close above 1.2560 which was the 161.8 and the g/u reached 1.56 but could not close above that which happened to be the 161.8 level of course measuring starting from fib level 0 at S1 and 100 at the pivot.

You'll see this happens more times than not.
Another thing that got me exploring this is why price would stop near the WP, S1&R1. When I placed the static fib in the chart, I found that price would be bouncing on the 78% / 23% levels.

Another thing to look at is if price does go through a S1/R1, you'll find that it will go back to the 23% level before advancing. Not, but enough for me to save pips and a better Stop Loss or premium entry depending on your trading perspective.

In my trading, I use the ABC projection tool and found that when they occur in around the drawn levels and S1/R1 the probabilities are better for a good clean trade.

Forgot to mention: backing out the gbp.usd to the 4hr and using the ABC projection tool. The rejection of price at the 161 area was also the area for taking profit on the higher time frame.
  • #10
  • Jun 9, 2012 3:13pm Jun 9, 2012 3:13pm
Quoting pip_hunter
Hi Aelimian,

As i stated in post 1, it's not really a trading system. I just wasn't sure where to post it.

There is no entry or exit for this other than what you find works for you.
It allows you to know where areas of Support and Resistance lies along with justifiable targets.

Example if price is near the weekly R1 and it's Wednesday , opening a new long position has a lower probability of success... in my book anyway.

This is just is one of the tools I use. for me personally, I use it to and from the weekly pivot, with S1/R1's being my...

Probability suggests price returns back to the weekly pivot, I got shouted down on this a few months ago on one of bryjons old threads.

Its good to see that you have come to the same conclusion, if price is above pivot I only consider long, vice versa for below pivot, it certainly raises the % level of winners for me.

Bosuns line indy worth using.

M.
  • #11
  • Jun 9, 2012 3:34pm Jun 9, 2012 3:34pm
Quoting moodybot
Probability suggests price returns back to the weekly pivot, I got shouted down on this a few months ago on one of bryjons old threads.

Its good to see that you have come to the same conclusion, if price is above pivot I only consider long, vice versa for below pivot, it certainly raises the % level of winners for me.

Bosuns line indy worth using.

M.
Sorry you got shot down. That spread sheet has near 10 years of data to show otherwise.

Price returning to the Weekly Pivot is what started me on this.

I was doing a high risk trade where a stack was placed near the Weekly Pivot. In my testing I would notice this sometimes it wouldn't touch and go the opposite way, when all traditional fibs were nowhere near and wouldn't explain the reversal.

I couldn't figure out why sometimes it wouldn't touch and didn't figure it was random and had to know.

Like anything, it isn't 100% just gives me better odds...
  • #12
  • Jun 9, 2012 4:26pm Jun 9, 2012 4:26pm
Quoting pip_hunter
There is actually a picture included in the spread sheet, but I've attached 2 to be reviewed.

This isn't isn't a system in itself, but can help you determine when it enter a trade, take profit or move stops. Example, if price opens above the WP, you can determine how likely the weekly R1 will be hit.

This week it didn't happen. After the big selloff, price opened below the WP then reversed. If you switched your fib the Weekly R1 when it closed back above the WP, then you have traded it to the the 23% level. etc. etc.

Pippo - the %'s I mentioned...

Piphunter, Sorry to bother you, But pl. tell me where is the weekly Pivot in gbp/usd this week?
I see a n Inside bar so should I long it from 1.5598 which was the high of week My TP would be 1.5877! about 279 pips. my sl would be low which is 1.5319.
Thanks in advance.
Bomi
PS I am in Houston, Tx, USA n would like to follow your trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ptt.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #13
  • Jun 9, 2012 4:41pm Jun 9, 2012 4:41pm
can somebody tell me how to play this trade please?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ptt.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #14
  • Jun 9, 2012 4:52pm Jun 9, 2012 4:52pm
Quoting behman8850
can somebody tell me how to play this trade please?
You need to calculate the pivot for the last weekly candle. So when price starts up again tomorrow see if it's above or below the pivot. If above you might want to go long or vice versa.
  • #15
  • Jun 9, 2012 5:59pm Jun 9, 2012 5:59pm
Quoting ferndog
You need to calculate the pivot for the last weekly candle. So when price starts up again tomorrow see if it's above or below the pivot. If above you might want to go long or vice versa.
Wkly Pivot is 121.28 so last close is above pivot at 122.75. I will buy 0.01 lot at open i. e. at 122.75 or around and next lot 0.02 at 124.32 which was last week's high. My TP at 128.91.(Wkly ATR is 459 pips!!)
weekly R 2 is at 127.60 and R 3 at 130.13. Lets see what happens!!
  • #16
  • Jun 9, 2012 6:18pm Jun 9, 2012 6:18pm
Quoting behman8850
can somebody tell me how to play this trade please?

Sorry Behman, I'm not going to be able to assist you with that.
I'm not licensed to give advice and the thread wasn't started to go in that direction.

I just wanted to post some of my findings that I use and if someone else can create a better trade through it then cool.
  • #17
  • Jun 9, 2012 6:20pm Jun 9, 2012 6:20pm
Quoting ferndog
You need to calculate the pivot for the last weekly candle. So when price starts up again tomorrow see if it's above or below the pivot. If above you might want to go long or vice versa.

At the top of the thread, there's a Weekly Pivot Indicator that can be downloaded and installed as well.
  • #18
  • Jun 9, 2012 8:50pm Jun 9, 2012 8:50pm
Quoting behman8850
Piphunter, Sorry to bother you, But pl. tell me where is the weekly Pivot in gbp/usd this week?
I see a n Inside bar so should I long it from 1.5598 which was the high of week My TP would be 1.5877! about 279 pips. my sl would be low which is 1.5319.
Thanks in advance.
Bomi
PS I am in Houston, Tx, USA n would like to follow your trades.

maybe you are trying too hard to guess where the market will go and consequently bitting more than you can chew at a time, no? i'll give you 2 pieces of advice. one is a fish: gu and gy probabilities favor a retest of previous weekly highs. the other one has to do with the philosophy of fishing rods: please, take a pause to rethink what you're doing, i mean you seem confused buying/selling all over the place, which denotes lack of a plan, at least a sound one that is. having no sound plan is the same as having no plan at all, which is the same as gambling. you are free to do whatever you want with the advices given. however i really would like you to take a minute to reexamine whatever fishing rod you're using.

PS: @ piphunter, i salute for the original approach, and i' apologize for hijacking the thread by answering behman8850 but i hate to see a fellow trader in distress
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #19
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:09am Jun 10, 2012 12:09am
Quoting vox dei
maybe you are trying too hard to guess where the market will go and consequently bitting more than you can chew at a time, no? i'll give you 2 pieces of advice. one is a fish: gu and gy probabilities favor a retest of previous weekly highs. the other one has to do with the philosophy of fishing rods: please, take a pause to rethink what you're doing, i mean you seem confused buying/selling all over the place, which denotes lack of a plan, at least a sound one that is. having no sound plan is the same as having no plan at all, which is the same as...
No worries Vox Dei, I was thinking about that earlier this evening.
I was going to suggest that when a plan is made, no matter how faulty it maybe, you don't change it mid-way through in order to justify.

If was in the traders shoes, I would exit all my trades immediately.
I'd rather take a loss by my decision than to lose a trade because of no decision.

Always got to have a plan, stick to it, Journal it. learn from it.
I've got a note pad at my desk that is titled "Trading lessons".
I write down thing during and after the trade. Sometimes you can learn a lot when your money and P&L is going back and forth.

If a trade doesn't go my way it's never a mistake unless I do it twice.
  • #20
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:46pm Jun 10, 2012 7:46pm
Quoting pip_hunter
No worries Vox Dei, I was thinking about that earlier this evening.
I was going to suggest that when a plan is made, no matter how faulty it maybe, you don't change it mid-way through in order to justify.

If was in the traders shoes, I would exit all my trades immediately.
I'd rather take a loss by my decision than to lose a trade because of no decision.

Always got to have a plan, stick to it, Journal it. learn from it.
I've got a note pad at my desk that is titled "Trading lessons".
I write down thing during and after the trade....
absolutely. excellent points.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
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