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Restart Trading - Mostly Support and Resistance Analysis

  • #21
  • Jun 9, 2012 1:09pm Jun 9, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting forextraderx
From personal experience, I can recommend that when you "break a rule" or basically do something that is impulsive, or lacking discipline or patience... try very hard to understand what the emotion you were feeling was at the time of that action.

was it fear? and if so... fear of what exactly? what it excitement...and if so...excitement of what exactly?

being able to pinpoint EXACTLY what emotions (and the reason for the emotions) are present when you act in an impulsive manner is absolutely crucial to really mastering the mental game, IMO

those...
Very well written,something I have just about come to terms with myself!
  • #22
  • Jun 9, 2012 1:26pm Jun 9, 2012 1:26pm
Feels the urge to go to a bar a try out a random line until victorY
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #23
  • Jun 9, 2012 1:45pm Jun 9, 2012 1:45pm
Quoting tomomi72003
Ok I understand what you are saying.

I hope to find the circumstances that put the odds in my favor.

I think that with support and resistance levels I have some edge, and I hope that with time I will find the best setups a those level.
yes, SR is great. the single best thing IMO.

however, I don't think 1 chart will show what you want... when I do SR, i look at monthly, weekly, and daily highs/lows... previous market turning points on the daily chart, as well as SR on the 4hr and 1hr. I don't really go below this... and I look for the levels that LOTS of folks are gonnna be looking at.

here's a link to a short I took on the eur/usd a couple days ago:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...trade956462927 (view it on the 15 min chart...shows better)

As you can see, I sold around 2617... now, look at a daily chart. as you can probably see around may 29th, this price i sold was just a few pips below the may 29th high of about 2624.

Also, this price was about the top of a previous range between 2500 and 2624...look at a 1 hr chart to see this.

It ALSO was a SIGNIFICANT level of support on a daily chart dating back to around Jan 15th-Jan 16th 2012.

Also, earlier that day I went short.... we had consolidated all through the asian session, and into the first part of the london session. This tells me that buying could be finding selling...why do i want to sell if i'm trying to go short a bullish rocket ship? show me weakness...then i'll be happier to sell.

Then, we didn't ROCKET up into the level...we sorta "flowed" into it. Had we seen some massive 70 pip 1hr candle, I would have wanted to not take the trade most likely.

Also, we had a very strong impulse move up back around the 2530 price...from the day before. This created a "gap" of sorts...those types of fast moves nearly always retrace.

When I saw that it DIDN'T retrace, I knew taht would act in some ways as a gentle "magnet"... the orders that will gather around that point will have a magnetic effect on price because...well, price moves to large blocks of orders.

Also, after moving up pretty much since the friday before, I felt this move up would be somewhat tired, because all the guys who had made a profit going long will be looking to take some profits...particularly at that high price as we are late into the week... and something that goes up 4 out of 5 days when in an overall bear market... is something I don't think will be able to continue much further.

So, you see, for ALL of these reasons, I wanted the trade...and this is just a partial list.

Also..what if this trade had failed? i think i had about a 35-40 pip stop on it...

where would i want to "get back in?"

not until around 1.2687... and that is all pre planned before london even opens.

So, I would have stopped out around 1.2657, and got back in about 30 pips higher.

Now, I know there is that 30 pip window where price might hit... I stop out, but my other entry doesn't fill, and then price just drops.

THAT'S OK! cuz I am looking at 1.2440 to get long! So..I know, EVENTUALLY, one of my orders will get hit, 100%

Sometimes, I cancel them the next day, but, they just get replaced with other orders... so eventually, something will get hit and i'll be long or short.

Especially for someone like you, I think it would be best if you plan out your trades BEFORE you take your first trade... and don't take any trades that are not in your plan for that day.

In fact, I would recommend this. With a demo account, set up orders before the market opens. put a stop, and a target in... and just turn your computer OFF.

Come back the next day, and see how they did.

Do this over and over again until you get good enough at finding levels that will really turn price, good enough to be profitable trading without looking at your charts.

Cancel your orders at the end of the day (every 24 hours)..and do a fresh analysis.

place an order to buy somewhere, and an order to sell somewhere.

And then just turn it off again.

check back in 24 hours.

This is an improvement drill. You will learn, this way, how to know if a level is REALLY a good level, or whether it is bullshit.

How do you know when your good enough? When you always take at least a 1:1 reward:risk ratio for every order you place, and after 3 months of this, you have been profitable every single month.

You get 3 months where you can do this in demo, and make a profit for each of those 3 months... you'll be on your way.

and it's so easy. I mean... demo it for crying out loud.

good baseball pitchers get good because they practice millions of pitches over their lifetime.

good footballers get good by practicing millions of goal shots over their lifetime

and good traders get good by practicing picking strong S&R levels millions of times over their lifetime.

Get to work.

X
  • #24
  • Jun 9, 2012 2:36pm Jun 9, 2012 2:36pm
I trade S/R aswell via m1 but for me i need 10-30 mins of buyers at a level, dont see it that often, then i like to get in near the bottom when its starting to go up. Hate it when im SL'd in sub 1 min.

SL at new low plus a few pips.

Better of waiting till after the SL hunt happens as the price breaks to a new low stops everyone out then reverses annoyingly.

Which is why we get SL'd so much.

I put much faith in predrawn SR it gives you something to see SR against so if you have enough lines something will line up.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #25
  • Jun 9, 2012 2:52pm Jun 9, 2012 2:52pm
Quoting Turveyd
I trade S/R aswell via m1 but for me i need 10-30 mins of buyers at a level, dont see it that often, then i like to get in near the bottom when its starting to go up. Hate it when im SL'd in sub 1 min.

SL at new low plus a few pips.

Better of waiting till after the SL hunt happens as the price breaks to a new low stops everyone out then reverses annoyingly.

Which is why we get SL'd so much.

I put much faith in predrawn SR it gives you something to see SR against so if you have enough lines something will line up.
Ya know, I don't trade time frames... I trade price. and personally I use every TF from monthly down to as low as 10 second charts on a rare occassion.

If one gets in the practice and develops the ability to really determine strong, price rejecting SR levels...than one could basically spend their trading day on 0 minute charts. because the orders are in place, and it'll hit that price eventually regardless of whether one is watching a 1 min chart, a 1 hr chart, or a monthly chart...and, it will reverse from that price to hit your profit target a good majority of the time.

In other words, this skill itself actually is, IMO, superior to any other PA skill, because it simply negates the need for any live PA watching skill.

If one can pick levels that, 60%+ of the time are session highs/lows, or daily highs/lows, or weekly highs/lows, etc.... and can do this preemptively, before price is around that level....

then this alone provides such a significant edge that there is simply no need to watch PA as it develops.

Don't get me wrong, not saying your approach is flawed or anything, hell, i watch a chart for 4-8 hours a day, 5 days a week, on lots of different time frames, so i'm in the same boat as you.

I'm just saying this to underscore just HOW valuable this skill is. Of course, not every day do i get a chance to take such a high quality trade from such a high quality level, and this is just one reason i watch price during my working day...

but regardless, it is, IMO, the most valuable skill of any skill in the "technical analysis" genre.

X
  • #26
  • Jun 9, 2012 3:14pm Jun 9, 2012 3:14pm
Quoting Turveyd
Feels the urge to go to a bar a try out a random line until victorY
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #27
  • Jun 9, 2012 3:31pm Jun 9, 2012 3:31pm
Quoting forextraderx
yes, SR is great. the single best thing IMO.

however, I don't think 1 chart will show what you want... when I do SR, i look at monthly, weekly, and daily highs/lows... previous market turning points on the daily chart, as well as SR on the 4hr and 1hr. I don't really go below this... and I look for the levels that LOTS of folks are gonnna be looking at.

here's a link to a short I took on the eur/usd a couple days ago:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...trade956462927 (view it on the 15 min chart...shows better)

As...
Nice analysis.

I will have to figure out how I will trade in order to be more discipline and finding good setups.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #28
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:11pm Jun 10, 2012 12:11pm
Since my main trading problem currently is not placing stops.

Then my focus for this month is placing stops when trading.

That way I confront and attack the issue.


I will post here every trade that I took and the stops regarding the trade.

I will also try to record any feeling that I felt placing the stops.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #29
  • Jun 10, 2012 1:53pm Jun 10, 2012 1:53pm
Quoting tomomi72003
Since my main trading problem currently is not placing stops.

Then my focus for this month is placing stops when trading.

That way I confront and attack the issue.


I will post here every trade that I took and the stops regarding the trade.

I will also try to record any feeling that I felt placing the stops.

You at times are going to hate SL's, when perfectly good trades get SL'd out by a few pips , be warned, learning SL placement is also part of the game.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #30
  • Jun 10, 2012 2:25pm Jun 10, 2012 2:25pm
Quoting Turveyd
You at times are going to hate SL's, when perfectly good trades get SL'd out by a few pips , be warned, learning SL placement is also part of the game.
Yes . I know.
Thanks for reminding me that.
I hate it when it happens but then is NO other alternative but setting a stoplosses.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #31
  • Jun 10, 2012 2:33pm Jun 10, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting tomomi72003
Yes . I know.
Thanks for reminding me that.
I hate it when it happens but then is NO other alternative but setting a stoplosses.
CORRECT, I've tried without yes you'll have good runs then DEATH!!!

Remembering this and remembering SL hunting happens especially at 00 numbers, market won't reverse back up until it's dipped below and taken out the SL's so don't join the crowd getting in at 05 SL 95 and getting SL'd nearly every trade.

Been there done that!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #32
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:15pm Jun 10, 2012 3:15pm
As part of my RESTART with trading , and do it the right way , I will , from time to time (daily/weekly/monthly) , set myself goals.

The goals needs to answer the criterion of S.M.A.R.T GOALS.

SMART =
S - Specific
M - Measurable
A - Actionable
R - Realistic
T - Timely

Inserted Video
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #33
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:22pm Jun 10, 2012 3:22pm
Quoting Turveyd
... yes you'll have good runs then DEATH!!!

...
Been there done that!!
I agree with you.
With this type of trading (no SL) - It only take 1 bad trade (that never retrace) to kill the account
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #34
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:35pm Jun 10, 2012 3:35pm
Quoting tomomi72003
Since my main trading problem currently is not placing stops.

Then my focus for this month is placing stops when trading.

That way I confront and attack the issue.


I will post here every trade that I took and the stops regarding the trade.

I will also try to record any feeling that I felt placing the stops.
Regarding my goals for June (Placing Stops) and SMART goals :

Specific = placing SL.
Measurable = I want that 100% of my will be trades to have SL.
Actionable = Place SL when opening a position (or opening a limit order).
Realistic = Place SL every trade is realistic.
Timely = currently for the month of June (but of-course , this is only to build a good pattern that will be for all my trading career).
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #35
  • Jun 11, 2012 12:08pm Jun 11, 2012 12:08pm
Long @ 1.25037 0.05 lot
Long @ 1.24949 0.05 lot

SL @ 1.2474 & 1.2471 below the low of the day.

Tp @ 1.2534 & 1.2530 at the next resistance

Reasons for Entry:
Gap fill
Divergence on the 15M chart.
00 level
15M Pin bar of the low ot he day
Daily range of the daily bar has breach (didnt actually measure it , only a visual look).

Reason for not to enter the trade:
Pivot Point @ 1.2507 (just above)
00 level


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.1.gif Size: 29 KB
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #36
  • Jun 11, 2012 12:32pm Jun 11, 2012 12:32pm
Quoting tomomi72003
Long @ 1.25037 0.05 lot
Long @ 1.24949 0.05 lot

SL @ 1.2474 & 1.2471 below the low of the day.

Tp @ 1.2534 & 1.2530 at the next resistance

Reasons for Entry:
Gap fill
Divergence on the 15M chart.
00 level
15M Pin bar of the low ot he day
Daily range of the daily bar has breach (didnt actually measure it , only a visual look).

Reason for not to enter the trade:
Pivot Point @ 1.2507 (just above)
00 level


Attachment

Looks good, issue is though you've bought a pause over the dead time, odds are the previous trend at 18:30 GMT will continue which is down.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #37
  • Jun 11, 2012 12:44pm Jun 11, 2012 12:44pm
Quoting Turveyd
Looks good, issue is though you've bought a pause over the dead time, odds are the previous trend at 18:30 GMT will continue which is down.
Ok , we'll see.

Another thing against the trade is that the divergence was only 5 bar setup (from valley to valley) , which I think is not enough.

But at least I place SL.

I also added to my position when I was down about 10 pips , but SL for that postion was also place around the low of the day.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #38
  • Jun 11, 2012 12:48pm Jun 11, 2012 12:48pm
Quoting tomomi72003
Ok , we'll see.

Another thing against the trade is that the divergence was only 5 bar setup (from valley to valley) , which I think is not enough.

But at least I place SL.

I also added to my position when I was down about 10 pips , but SL for that postion was also place around the low of the day.

It could break up, but betting on change is generally a bad bet especially at the moment, market is super trendy.

2nd position, at a better price with a similar SL to the first so less cost if hit more upside works for me

Put the SL the same for both though, you don't want to lose 1 but keep the other all for the sake of 4pips.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #39
  • Jun 11, 2012 12:53pm Jun 11, 2012 12:53pm
Quoting Turveyd
...

Put the SL the same for both though, you don't want to lose 1 but keep the other all for the sake of 4pips.
Ok,
Change SL @ 1.2474 for both entries.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #40
  • Jun 11, 2012 2:16pm Jun 11, 2012 2:16pm
Quoting tomomi72003
Long @ 1.25037 0.05 lot
Long @ 1.24949 0.05 lot

SL @ 1.2474 & 1.2471 below the low of the day.

Tp @ 1.2534 & 1.2530 at the next resistance

Reasons for Entry:
Gap fill
Divergence on the 15M chart.
00 level
15M Pin bar of the low ot he day
Daily range of the daily bar has breach (didnt actually measure it , only a visual look).

Reason for not to enter the trade:
Pivot Point @ 1.2507 (just above)
00 level


Attachment
15M divergence exhaust itself.

now there is 30M divergence setup (7 bar setup).
Lets see how this divergence will work out.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.2.gif Size: 34 KB
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
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