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Restart Trading - Mostly Support and Resistance Analysis

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 8, 2012 5:13pm Jun 8, 2012 5:13pm
Hi,

After trading many years without any plan in advance.
And after trading many years without patience.
And after trading many years without discipline
And after loosing many $$$ because of it, I decided to open this thread.

By opening this thread I plan to post my analysis before a trade and in that way force myself to be discpilne and patience.

Lets see how it develop.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #2
  • Jun 8, 2012 5:54pm Jun 8, 2012 5:54pm
This is my analysis , but I trading it only in Demo.
I will update my analysis if necessary the following days.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #3
  • Jun 8, 2012 8:59pm Jun 8, 2012 8:59pm
I'm sure you gained a lot of experience while trading crazy style which will serve you well when you calm down


We have all been there, don't beat yourself up to much and never quit.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #4
  • Jun 8, 2012 9:23pm Jun 8, 2012 9:23pm
Quoting tomomi72003
Hi,

After trading many years without any plan in advance.
And after trading many years without patience.
And after trading many years without discipline
And after loosing many $$$ because of it, I decided to open this thread.

By opening this thread I plan to post my analysis before a trade and in that way force myself to be discpilne and patience.

Lets see how it develop.
From personal experience, I can recommend that when you "break a rule" or basically do something that is impulsive, or lacking discipline or patience... try very hard to understand what the emotion you were feeling was at the time of that action.

was it fear? and if so... fear of what exactly? what it excitement...and if so...excitement of what exactly?

being able to pinpoint EXACTLY what emotions (and the reason for the emotions) are present when you act in an impulsive manner is absolutely crucial to really mastering the mental game, IMO

those emotions are expressing a psychological need... and this will reoccur over, and over again, and express itself in some dysfunctional manner in your trading unless they are properly addressed.

some just need to be acknowledged, others to be worked with, others to be worked around, and other still to be tempered and released in other outlets.

you have to really get to the root underlying emotion that is present when such poor actions are taken, otherwise... your trading against your nature without even knowing it...no wonder traders lose.

X
  • #5
  • Jun 9, 2012 1:09am Jun 9, 2012 1:09am
I trade euro exclusively, if u want to know my trade details u can follow me on my thread
  • #6
  • Jun 9, 2012 1:27am Jun 9, 2012 1:27am
Quoting Turveyd
I'm sure you gained a lot of experience while trading crazy style which will serve you well when you calm down


We have all been there, don't beat yourself up to much and never quit.

Ok, thanks
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #7
  • Jun 9, 2012 2:18am Jun 9, 2012 2:18am
Quoting forextraderx
From personal experience, I can recommend that when you "break a rule" or basically do something that is impulsive, or lacking discipline or patience... try very hard to understand what the emotion you were feeling was at the time of that action.

was it fear? and if so... fear of what exactly? what it excitement...and if so...excitement of what exactly?

being able to pinpoint EXACTLY what emotions (and the reason for the emotions) are present when you act in an impulsive manner is absolutely crucial to really mastering the mental game, IMO

those...
Ok, I will watch my emotions.
The funny thing is that I watched many webinars/videos about the mental game of trading. And I still was unable to be discipline.

One of the problems for me is that I can not take a loss.
I double/triple/quardiple up my position in order to see the total position gains or break even.
With this trading style (double up) all it takes one loosing trade that goes out of control that kills the account.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #8
  • Jun 9, 2012 2:51am Jun 9, 2012 2:51am
Quoting tomomi72003
Ok, I will watch my emotions.
The funny thing is that I watched many webinars/videos about the mental game of trading. And I still was unable to be discipline.

One of the problems for me is that I can not take a loss.
I double/triple/quardiple up my position in order to see the total position gains or break even.
With this trading style (double up) all it takes one loosing trade that goes out of control that kills the account.
It may be insightful if...next time there is a trade that is going to result in "a loss"... before you double up your position, try to determine what your feeling... are you angry at that moment? worried? stressed out? vengeful? scared? sad? etc....

this would be the first step...and it may be a combination of emotions. Try to identify EXACTLY what it is (mostly anger, a little stressed...etc)

once you identify that feeling, try to find out why it really exists. hmm.. this is a bit more complex of a topic than a forum post will be able to do much for.

but, i do know this. you need to slow down and figure out what your emotions are when you lose, and why you feel that way. if you can get this down, PM me with what happened, and i'll see what I can do.

X
  • #9
  • Jun 9, 2012 3:43am Jun 9, 2012 3:43am
Quoting forextraderx
It may be insightful if...next time there is a trade that is going to result in "a loss"... before you double up your position, try to determine what your feeling... are you angry at that moment? worried? stressed out? vengeful? scared? sad? etc....

this would be the first step...and it may be a combination of emotions. Try to identify EXACTLY what it is (mostly anger, a little stressed...etc)

once you identify that feeling, try to find out why it really exists. hmm.. this is a bit more complex of a topic than a forum post will be able to do...

Ok , I will do that.

Now , When I think in hindsight:
When price goes against my position - I feel angry and vengeful, since i could get a better "deal".
I think that I can get a better price than that i entered originally , for me it is like buying the same product , but even cheaper.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #10
  • Jun 9, 2012 3:47am Jun 9, 2012 3:47am
Quoting tomomi72003
Ok , I will do that.

Now , When I think in hindsight:
When price goes against my position - I feel angry and vengeful, since i could get a better "deal".
I think that I can get a better price than that i entered originally , for me it is like buying the same product , but even cheaper.
Ok...good... good. you can identify why that feeling exists, and what it's related to.

Now, we might be able to actually "get somewhere"

So... why is getting the "BEST" deal on a product so important to you?

AND....

have you considered that the "BEST" deal actually isn't where you stopped out and got back in...but in fact, the "BEST" deal won't be available for 3 more days... which will be approx 275 pips below where you just stopped out... ?
  • #11
  • Jun 9, 2012 4:13am Jun 9, 2012 4:13am
Quoting forextraderx
Ok...good... good. you can identify why that feeling exists, and what it's related to.

Now, we might be able to actually "get somewhere"

So... why is getting the "BEST" deal on a product so important to you?

AND....

have you considered that the "BEST" deal actually isn't where you stopped out and got back in...but in fact, the "BEST" deal won't be available for 3 more days... which will be approx 275 pips below where you just stopped out... ?
In entering at a better price I could make more money, with a larger position , which is the reason why we are trading (to make money).
So it is also a greed issue :-)

If the "BEST" deal is actually 275 pips below the current price (btw: until today I didnt put any stoploss in my trades), I have to admit that I was wrong with my entry , I have to admit that I actually have to take a lose , and I have to admit that instead of making money in a trade I lost money.

Also I know that sometimes price is just spikes. So I am afraid to being stopped out of my position , and then see the price goes with my original position (this is the reason why I dont put stoploss).
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #12
  • Jun 9, 2012 4:22am Jun 9, 2012 4:22am
Quoting tomomi72003
In entering at a better price I could make more money, with a larger position , which is the reason why we are trading (to make money).
So it is also a greed issue :-)

If the "BEST" deal is actually 275 pips below the current price (btw: until today I didnt put any stoploss in my trades), I have to admit that I was wrong with my entry , I have to admit that I actually have to take a lose , and I have to admit that instead of making money in a trade I lost money.

Also I know that sometimes price is just spikes. So I am afraid to being stopped...
Ehh...i don't wanna get too off track here, and this could really go a long, tangential way from here... but, just to focus on one point:

the reality is, if you get in and price moves against your position, you don't know if it will go 5 pips against you before it moves to your target, or if it will move 275+ pips against you, before finally stalling out and reversing.

So, re entering actually doesn't have anything to do with a better deal. because you don't know if it will turn at that price. Maybe, if you came up with very clear criteria of what makes a "better deal"...then, you will know what to look for that justifies a re-entry....

otherwise, you may be buying more at a lower price...so your buying cheaper...but you have NO IDEA if it's better. cheaper is just cheaper...not better.

and if the thing is gonna keep dropping a few hundered pips more... well, cheaper just screwed you.

Recognize that buying again (or shorting again) as price moves against you isn't actuallly a "better deal" unless you have a very specific pattern you are looking to see that PROVES it probably is a "better deal"

otherwise, your just buying more of something that could be absolute garbage... and it really don't matter if garbage is on sale...if it's garbage...well, any price is too high

Cheap does NOT equal "good deal". Find out what DOES equal "good deal" and then act on that.

X
  • #13
  • Jun 9, 2012 4:27am Jun 9, 2012 4:27am
I didnt actually put a pending order yet.
Maybe I will look at lower timeframe to put an actual trade, if it gets to the resistance level.
I will update my analysis if necessary the following days.

I think usdjpy is correlated to s&p , this is the reason why the analysis look the same to #es (not sure about that).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 27 KB
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #14
  • Jun 9, 2012 4:43am Jun 9, 2012 4:43am
Quoting tomomi72003
I didnt actually put a pending order yet.
Maybe I will look at lower timeframe to put an actual trade, if it gets to the resistance level.
I will update my analysis if necessary the following days.

I think usdjpy is correlated to s&p , this is the reason why the analysis look the same to #es (not sure about that).

Attachment
well, good luck with that. I feel you need to spend a lot more time on your own internal psychological situation before you'll ever see success for more than a few months at a time.

Truth is, IMO, whether you make money or not will have nothing to do with what you see on a chart. Your analysis probably isn't the real problem, and no amount of screen time will fix this issue...
  • #15
  • Jun 9, 2012 4:46am Jun 9, 2012 4:46am
Quoting forextraderx
Ehh...i don't wanna get too off track here, and this could really go a long, tangential way from here... but, just to focus on one point:

the reality is, if you get in and price moves against your position, you don't know if it will go 5 pips against you before it moves to your target, or if it will move 275+ pips against you, before finally stalling out and reversing.

So, re entering actually doesn't have anything to do with a better deal. because you don't know if it will turn at that price. Maybe, if you came up with very clear criteria of...
Ok , I totally agree with you, but emotionally it was hard for me to see price goes against me.
Anyway I hope that impulse trading is a PAST for me, this is the one of the reasons why I open this thread.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #16
  • Jun 9, 2012 4:49am Jun 9, 2012 4:49am
Quoting forextraderx
well, good luck with that. I feel you need to spend a lot more time on your own internal psychological situation before you'll ever see success for more than a few months at a time.

Truth is, IMO, whether you make money or not will have nothing to do with what you see on a chart. Your analysis probably isn't the real problem, and no amount of screen time will fix this issue...

I agree with you.
I open this thread in order to be more obligate with my trading, and stop the impulse trading.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #17
  • Jun 9, 2012 7:24am Jun 9, 2012 7:24am
I think most of us fail cause of the taking a loss issue.

Either doubling up a few times while it goes against you or worse still the tight SL hits it's the bottom back in at a higher price and repeat.

Keeping my losses so small pip wise it isn't enough to care works fo me but only recently started to get over this.

Having a valid reason for your SL is needed to ie if X price hits odds are it will keep going against me.

I trade turns so SL is at a lower low if that hits its not turning its trending down so I need to be out.


Trading shouldn't be hard but it really is.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #18
  • Jun 9, 2012 9:03am Jun 9, 2012 9:03am
Quoting Turveyd
Having a valid reason for your SL is needed to ie if X price hits odds are it will keep going against me.

.
Since all the years that I traded I didnt put the effort on a trading journal, i am not sure about the odds thing (that also a reason for opening this thread , to see how trades develop and have a record of it).

I am not saying that the forex is a random walk , but many times i saw that for every setup that workout well , I saw the same setup that didnt workout.

Example:
* Divergence
I saw divergences that worked and divergences that didnt worked.
What are the odds that a divergence will work?
I am not sure it is more than 50% chance (hope i will proof wrong).

Anyway I hope that with discipline ,patience and practice - I will be able to find good setups that the odds will be in my favor.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #19
  • Jun 9, 2012 12:26pm Jun 9, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting tomomi72003
Since all the years that I traded I didnt put the effort on a trading journal, i am not sure about the odds thing (that also a reason for opening this thread , to see how trades develop and have a record of it).

I am not saying that the forex is a random walk , but many times i saw that for every setup that workout well , I saw the same setup that didnt workout.

Example:
* Divergence
I saw divergences that worked and divergences that didnt worked.
What are the odds that a divergence will work?
I am not sure it is more than 50% chance (hope...
Hmm...well, I will say that if there IS something you could do with charts and trades to actually improve, it would be to journal every trade. restrict your trades each day to a maximum of 3...and review all of them, most of all the losing trades.

don't look at it just in terms of divergence... you need to see what was going on AROUND the times when divergence worked, or failed.

Like this... If you treated dating like trading... it would look something like this:

Lets say you had a little "slick introduction" memorized...and I told you it worked with girls all the time, and you saw I took a different hot girl home 5 days a week... you would probably believe me, and rightfully so.

I take you out to the bar, and you see me do it, and then you do it to, and woah...it works for you! You get laid.

But, your excited about this success, so the next day, you decide to use the same line on some women you see who are busy collecting signatures for some womens rights political issue.

there are 20 women... and you try the line on every single one, but you find that no one decides to go home with you. No one! 100% fail!

Well... it's not the line necessarily... it's the fact that it works when your talking to women in a BAR...but not at a womens rights political rally!

Maybe, divergence works when you see bullish divergence in a market...and the day before, that market made a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart.

And, whoa! you take the trade and it works! Ahh... it wasn't just the divergence...you see, that was mostly used as a trigger...

the more IMPORTANT reason why it worked was because the previous day showed a great bullish engulfing daily candle, which indicates the flows in the market were very bullish.

Of course, if you try to go long when you see bullish divergence on a chart, but that same market on a daily chart shows it has gone up for 20 days in a row, and the last 2 days were very small, inside bars that were looking like they were JUST ABOUT TO REVERSE.... well, that's like using your "pickup line" at the womens rights political rally.

You see... you must look at everything. record everything. learn more about the markets so you have some idea of what to look for...

Good luck.

X
  • #20
  • Jun 9, 2012 1:03pm Jun 9, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting forextraderx
Hmm...well, I will say that if there IS something you could do with charts and trades to actually improve, it would be to journal every trade. restrict your trades each day to a maximum of 3...and review all of them, most of all the losing trades.

don't look at it just in terms of divergence... you need to see what was going on AROUND the times when divergence worked, or failed.

Like this... If you treated dating like trading... it would look something like this:

Lets say you had a little "slick introduction" memorized...and I told you it...
Ok I understand what you are saying.

I hope to find the circumstances that put the odds in my favor.

I think that with support and resistance levels I have some edge, and I hope that with time I will find the best setups a those level.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
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