Price, Hedge, Adapt and Trend (PHAT)

Hi people,

i have learnt alot from FF...over time, my trading has evolved. sometimes,not for the better..but i have learnt some things

1. the future is unknown
2. the trend is your friend
3. even though the market oscillates, there's still a general direction.

This is me giving back some of what i have learnt. I am hoping to inspire someone, just as i have been inspired by threads like CICR, symphonie, Pimpology- intensive care for newbies(forex-tsd).

my strategy is simple. i hate to lose....but in this market, that is really inevitable. This strategy isnt suitable for everyone. If you have an already working system, you might want to stick to it. I believe consistency is important. my strategy involves some radical thinking. it is not the HOLY GRAIL....
Just another way of trading.

i wish to thank jaguar1637 for his help in trying to automate the system. Its still a work in progress. My system involves some hedging, sometimes we add to a losing trade, but we ALWAYS make sure we are in the direction of the trend. my indicators are macd, john ehlers instantaneous trend, moving averages and CCI.
it involves constantly monitoring the GOLD, CRUDE, USD index and the EURO index..thinking about it, its really kinda hectic. Trading is hard work, get use to it...

this is a system i tried out a couple of months ago..great results. i began another test about a week ago (i started implementing some firm controls),,i have attached statements...basically following price action and harvesting them pips...i am not interested in the number of pips really, i just love to see my account grow..i will begin posting the strategy on Monday. i need to define the rules myself..


like i said earlier, this aint for everyone..and its not the holy grail, not by a long shot..but its a dynamic and very flexible approach...

have a great weekend.


Money management
0.1 - 0.15 starting lot size for every $3000 (first entry trades)
Add-on trades(new signal trades should be 2.2x the first entry trade) e.g if the first entry trade is 0.1 for a buy, and we get a sell signal, sell trade should be 0.22)

Entry rules

Buy Signal

macd M30 cross-over upwards
macd H1 green bars
instant M15 upward cross

Sell Signal
macd M30 cross-over downwards
macd H1 red bars
instant M15 downward cross


Targets
25 - 40pips (for first entry trades)
With Add-on trades (1 - 5% equity targets)

Exits
exit positive trades on reverse signal
exit positive trades at areas of price consolidation

Congrats! Write more pal

thanks profitmonit..

I thought about waiting till monday, but it seems a little far off...
So i decided to kick off early..
Always i hear that 97% of all traders lose money...thats alot of people!!...So, i ask myself, if only 3% make money consistently, what are they doing right..its really simple. they are following the trend!!...So if i had a trend-following system i would make a lot of money?..not necessarily...

The average trader does his/her analysis....enters a trade, sets a stop loss and TP...its a 50/50 gamble...if you are right, you make money..if not, your stop loss gets hit

lesson 1:

identifying the trend...or rather i should say following the trend...
my trend identifier is john Ehler's instantaneous trend indicator..i will post all indicators and proper setups on monday...


here is the trend identifier, the picture is self-explanatory...

Maybe you can write everithing today - we could prepare to trade the system on monday so...

Sound good, and i am interested

About the poll, I wont vote right now since I need time to work with it to know

Please post them now so we can backtest on weekend and demo it on Monday

I am already working on the details. I should have the system ready for viewing in a few hours..hope everyone is having a great weekend.

Dear topic-starter!

The "Trading Systems" section contains more than enough crap already. If you can't post your so-called "system" in the first 24 hours after opening the thread, the moderators should move your thread to the "Journals" section. What you're doing right now I call "a smart marketing"...

someone said something about "smart-marketing"...i believe that would be true if i actually wanted something from you,yeah?..but guess what, i dnt..i am simply sharing...

Hi people, I would have uploaded the setup earlier, it just that I have been having some power issues. Anyway, here is the strategy.
This setup is based on two very BIG assumptions:
1. That the market trends most of the time.
2. That MACD, a traditional and widely used indicator is reliable most of the time.
There’s nothing particularly special about this strategy, I dare say there are better, more comprehensive systems out there. But this approach isn’t what the AVERAGE trader would do. We know that 97% of traders lose money, so to effective and continuously make profit, we would have to do what the majority of traders are not doing.
This strategy involves an OPEN MIND..a BRAVE heart and good MONEY management.
If I could write an EA for this strategy, this is what the EA would do:
Step 1: identify trend
Setp 2: enter a trade 1 in trend direction with a set TP
Step 3: if trend changes and trade 1 is positive, close trade 1 and enter new trade (trade 2) in new signal direction.
Step 4: if trend changes and trade 1 is negative, enter trade 2 with increased lots and close both trades when an equity target is reached.
People, that is the principle behind my setup. That is the heart of the matter..Yes, I use indicators, I check indexes and commodities, but above all when am I wrong, I reverse my position and follow price!!..
Like I said earlier, this setup isn’t for everyone. But i believe a system should be judged based on its performance. And this strategy is a HIGH-PERFORMER!!..For such a setup to work, we would need a REALIABLE indicator and good price action…ranging markets can also be profitable, depending on how large the range..
Open mind: be ready to change your bias when trend changes. Be ready to admit when you are wrong.
Brave heart: I dnt use stop losses, I usually have pending orders to enter reverse trades in case price goes against me…the system has draw-downs!!...but a good money management policy is what will keep it under check..i hear people write comments like “dnt risk more that 1 – 2% of your account in a trade”..its good advice to the conservative trader..so, I assume I am taking 20 trades for the week and prepare to keep my draw-downs below 15%...for the WHOLE WEEK!!
Some might call this a martingale approach..in a way it is…I always make sure I have more trades in the trend direction. The reason I have a drawdown is because indicators are not right all the time..

Money management: we cant trade with heavy lots…with 3k, my first trade is between 0.1 – 0.15..i add as I see fit, especially when I am in the trend direction…
And the success of this strategy comes from LETTING YOUR WINNERS RUN..Of cos, once an equity target is reached, you can always EXIT…
I am uploading the setup in the next post.

Hi omadivi,
So basically this is a trend following system with some martingale. I am open to all ideas to make my trading life profitable and less stress. However, how do we identify when a TREND STARTS or ENDS. Most indicators are too late to identify a trend. When they say there is a trend, most of the times the trend already slows down or about to change direction.

I would like to read more on your thoughts though.

i am having a lot of problems with my internet service provider..considering legal actions...here is the setup:

PRICE: price is the king in this market...we are trying to follow price, not stay ahead of price...we let price show its hand before we pull the 'trigger"..
we take our entry signals on M30,
verify it on H1
and execute the signals from the m15 chart

best trading times; open of euro session to close of U.S session
pairs ;Eurusd, Gbpusd

we verify signals from our indexes...its very important that the indexes support our entries...i will post our HEDGE setup as soon as i have my internet connection on lock-down...

hi kelvin,
to notice trend changes, in a bearish trend, when you start observing higher lows and higher highs..then possible bull scenario...although an indicator just makes things easier...yes, moving averages lag...but over all, they are more reliable..

i suspect the instantaneous trend indicator is based on moving averages...

if you observe the indicator carefully,you'ill notice that trading its cross-overs alone on a m15 chart is quite profitable..i have attached the indicators....

ooops!!
here are the indicators.......

hi, this is the next stage...after we take our trade, we can not guarantee the eventual outcome...we can just hope for the best

most traders would put a stop loss below the previous low, for the buy example i posted earlier..i would not...why? cos i am not prepared to have price breach the low, hit my stop loss, then head back up

so i would place a sell stop below the previous low, atleast 10pips below that low..the sell stop would have the same lot size as the buy trade...i hope the screen shot below explains better. i am working on some trade examples to simplify this setup...just hang in there with..

this trade example was from a ranging period...they say a picture is worth a 1000 words...so, here you go..

.....

hi

i am going to add some more trading examples..it really gets interesting when we take the strategy in a live market. I'ill do my best to get y'all ready for the market come monday morning...green pips to everyone..

please note:
for buy trades: commodities check...gold and crude should be bullish or making intra-day gains. strong gold + strong crude = weak dollar

sells:

weak gold + weak crude = strong dollar

another example for your consideration..

i hope anyone is getting something...i am trying to cover all bases..trying to make this as simple as possible.....

what if we got a sell signal, entered a 0.1 sell...set our buy stop(0.1 buy)...and waited

then price spiked up, activated our buy stop and came pouring back down...what do we do?

really simple, we wait..if we have a confirmed buy signal..we place a 0.15 buy...and let it run...
WHAT IF....after some hours, we get a sell signal,but our equity target isnt met yet...are our buys +ve?...yes...we close out our buy trades...0.1, 0.15...then we enter a 0.1 sell...

our new buy stop is 0.2 buy 10pips above the recent high....in this kind of scenario,i'd advice to close both sells once they cancel out...i.e profit = 0;
seeing as we have already taken some profit from the buy trades....

or you could let them run.....thats what i would do...

Questions are welcome..it would be a good idea to hold off on the poll voting till you have tested this strategy in a live market....i am going to be posting live setups over the coming week...

right now, i am signing out...drop whatever comments/questions you have...

i dnt expect everyone to agree with this strategy...i know its absolutely useless for brokers who dnt allow hedging

i have already applied this system to a demo acount. i am going to run it for the rest of the month...started with 3k from the 28th of may 2012..current bal/equity is 4.29k...i will let the system prove itself..

If you're so sure in your system, please add the Trade Explorer to your profile, so we really will be able to see what is going on at your demo account. I don't want to hear about 4.29K, I want to see it!

And without the Trade Explorer all I can hear is: blah-blah-blah.

And, of course, just adding the Trade Explorer that would show 4.29K proves nothing! I want the Trade Explorer because I want to see this account in the future, because two weeks prove nothing! We'll see what happen to this account in a month, in 2-3 months etc.