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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #34,021
  • Edited 10:23am Jun 7, 2012 9:36am | Edited 10:23am
hello FTI

thankyou for sharing. I have been reading some of the posts on this thread. Its very helpful.

the ES sp500 mini futures daily at an interesting place now.

......................................................................................

AU may go and retest its daily high today. Im prepared to risk 10 - 15 pips from my entry at 0.9929 to find out.
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  • #34,022
  • Jun 7, 2012 10:45am Jun 7, 2012 10:45am
PS hi fti
You say, learn the language But which?
Grece translate word "apocalypse" means" Raise the curtain" ... and english?
Latin "cosmos" means "true system,fair" and I can continue.
Maybe understud me.

Rgs

PSS My ignorance (lern english) compel me ,read the AOW (verses translated from the original)
  • #34,023
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:07pm Jun 7, 2012 2:07pm
have you tried the french version? its quite different from the english one .

Quoting Gro
PS hi fti
You say, learn the language But which?
Grece translate word "apocalypse" means" Raise the curtain" ... and english?
Latin "cosmos" means "true system,fair" and I can continue.
Maybe understud me.

Rgs

PSS My ignorance (lern english) compel me ,read the AOW (verses translated from the original)
  • #34,024
  • Jun 7, 2012 8:33pm Jun 7, 2012 8:33pm
Quoting daytek
have you tried the french version? its quite different from the english one .
bonjour,, daytek,,
êtes-vous les français

rgs
  • #34,025
  • Jun 7, 2012 8:40pm Jun 7, 2012 8:40pm
Compare my morning's effort with fti's MO. I made 0.5% and that was ok, but for much of the time I was sitting on my hands. fti would have made 5 times that, or better still, would have been able to make the same return with one fifth the risk. One fifth the risk has to be good...

(For the record, I don't leave all those lines on the chart, but they do help me assess the terrain.)
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  • #34,026
  • Jun 7, 2012 8:41pm Jun 7, 2012 8:41pm
Dear FTI,

Been reading through the attack and resecue sequence. I wanted to clarify both with you.

Attack Sequence

For attack sequence, I will send my scout in first. Upon finding weak points in the terrain, I will send my army in sequence of 3, 5, etc.

My questions:

1. Do I add positions during the consolidation phase or during the impulse wave? Meaning, do I add my soldiers when price is still moving sideways, or only when I see the first candle of the impulse wave forming?

2. From the EW point of view (theoretically), that will give me 3 waves of full attack am I right? But of course, that will depend on how low or high volatility is for that actual wave.

Resecue Sequence

For resecue sequence, when my scout is in deep waters, I will only send in resecue team when I am certain that price will turn in my direction.

My question:

1. I will send my rescue team in during the corrective wave. Am I right?

Please please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm not sure if I'm doing this correctly. Thank you!
  • #34,027
  • Jun 8, 2012 2:30am Jun 8, 2012 2:30am
Quoting daytek
have you tried the french version? its quite different from the english one .
Grece transl. means Raising the Curtain
English means Disaster
and French?

I do not know if you understand?
Rgs
  • #34,028
  • Edited 6:08am Jun 8, 2012 5:56am | Edited 6:08am
Quoting nathaniel
Dear FTI,

Been reading through the attack and resecue sequence. I wanted to clarify both with you.

Attack Sequence

For attack sequence, I will send my scout in first. Upon finding weak points in the terrain, I will send my army in sequence of 3, 5, etc.

My questions:

1. Do I add positions during the consolidation phase or during the impulse wave? Meaning, do I add my soldiers when price is still moving sideways, or only when I see the first candle of the impulse wave forming?

2. From the EW point of view (theoretically), that...

cannot say how the respond to markets before hand.
depending on how forceful the behaviours , the corresponding reactions needed. Learn feel the rhythm of the flow.
Take risk when is highest, in fact talking risk has no higher or lower risk.
when positions are initiated, all are equal risk.
Risk is only high if momentum continues cut against positions.

regards

Quoting nathaniel

1. Do I add positions during the consolidation phase or during the impulse wave? Meaning, do I add my soldiers when price is still moving sideways, or only when I see the first candle of the impulse wave forming?
Both. It depends on the volitility of the terrain. One indicator to determine your required action would be your position cost, from mark to markets.
The worst your situation, the more risk you need take. But only to where cap is still unencumbered. Otherewise eat cucumber.

Quoting nathaniel

2. From the EW point of view (theoretically), that will give me 3 waves of full attack am I right? But of course, that will depend on how low or high volatility is for that actual wave.
when you already know the answer why do you want ask the question?

Quoting nathaniel

1. I will send my rescue team in during the corrective wave. Am I right?
It depends on how much correction they will give.
feel the momentum for that.

regards
  • #34,029
  • Edited 7:06am Jun 8, 2012 6:48am | Edited 7:06am
Quoting AllanS
A hypothetical question.

Fred happens to have a spare 100k and hopes to make 0.2% on average every day. He thinks he has the time and skill to do this. Should he put the full 100k into an account and aim for 0.2%, or should he put 10k into the account and aim for 2%? With 100k account, the disaster stop would be 10%. With the 10k account, the disaster stop would be the margin call.

What would you advise Fred to do?
Put $95k in a bank for 5% annual interest, roughly $100k after a year (deposit + interest)

put remaining $5k in a trading account and aim for 0.2% daily

possible outcomes:
a) you blew your account (most likely scenario), you still got $100k
b) you wasted your time, ended the year at break even (can happen), you still have made $5k profit on interest
c) you actually achieved your aim of 0.2% daily (pour a glass of champagne), you have made $8k profit ($3k form trading, $5k from interest)

this may not sound like much but have you read AOW? it may not be apparent but there is no scenario for a loss.

Quoting Sun Tzu
The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.

To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat, but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy.

Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer without being able to do it.
  • #34,030
  • Jun 8, 2012 7:35am Jun 8, 2012 7:35am
Quoting piccolo
Put $95k in a bank for 5% annual interest, roughly $100k after a year (deposit + interest)
what bank give 5% interest on deposit? Even 0.5% is unusual

In some currency I don't know about?

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #34,031
  • Jun 8, 2012 7:48am Jun 8, 2012 7:48am
Quoting Baifu
what bank give 5% interest on deposit? Even 0.5% is unusual

In some currency I don't know about?

Rgs,
Baifu
Lex Luthor Mr...
  • #34,032
  • Jun 8, 2012 8:06am Jun 8, 2012 8:06am
Quoting Baifu
what bank give 5% interest on deposit? Even 0.5% is unusual

In some currency I don't know about?

Rgs,
Baifu
It was a hypothetical example but AUD or NZD could be close to 5% annual.
  • #34,033
  • Jun 8, 2012 8:37am Jun 8, 2012 8:37am
Quoting piccolo
Put $95k in a bank for 5% annual interest, roughly $100k after a year (deposit + interest)

put remaining $5k in a trading account and aim for 0.2% daily

possible outcomes:
a) you blew your account (most likely scenario), you still got $100k
b) you wasted your time, ended the year at break even (can happen), you still have made $5k profit on interest
c) you actually achieved your aim of 0.2% daily (pour a glass of champagne), you have made $8k profit ($3k form trading, $5k from interest)

this may not sound like much...

Not separated from whole AOW.
Do you think this is similar?
"He hides under nine Lands,but attacks from the tenth Heaven"
Rgs
  • #34,034
  • Jun 8, 2012 9:06am Jun 8, 2012 9:06am
Quoting Gro
Not separated from whole AOW.
Do you think this is similar?
"He hides under nine Lands,but attacks from the tenth Heaven"
Rgs
ai ya 7th day rested.
where have so many heavens?
everywhere is heaven, until man shows up.


regards
  • #34,035
  • Jun 8, 2012 9:08am Jun 8, 2012 9:08am
Quoting piccolo
It was a hypothetical example but AUD or NZD could be close to 5% annual.
Yes, correct, I got 6.6% last year for a 5 year fixed deposit in Australia. Ray
  • #34,036
  • Edited Jun 9, 2012 7:50am Jun 8, 2012 9:12am | Edited Jun 9, 2012 7:50am
Quoting 1234
Yes, correct, I got 6.6% last year for a 5 year fixed deposit in Australia. Ray
I would use it for investment

Risky though

Kin
  • #34,037
  • Edited 1:22pm Jun 8, 2012 12:10pm | Edited 1:22pm
Quoting fti
ai ya 7th day rested.
where have so many heavens?
everywhere is heaven, until man shows up.


regards
AOW chapter 4 (Book of the Likewise)
7day+6night (or 7/10 property and 6/10 Public expenditure)and nine Lands swallowed up this.
The correct explanation in Chapter 2 (A book about the battle preparation)

Rgs

Nine Land is complete explain in chapter Book of the Nine Land and Book of the Nine Change

The Sky is always ten or one
There's more than the read Sun poetry.
  • #34,038
  • Jun 8, 2012 7:52pm Jun 8, 2012 7:52pm
Harshness vanished. A sudden softness
has replaced the meadows' wintry grey.
Little rivulets of water changed
their singing accents. Tendernesses,

hesitantly, reach toward the earth
from space, and country lanes are showing
these unexpected subtle risings
that find expression in the empty trees.
Rainer Maria Rilke

rgs
  • #34,039
  • Jun 8, 2012 10:56pm Jun 8, 2012 10:56pm
Quoting fti

cannot say how the respond to markets before hand.
depending on how forceful the behaviours , the corresponding reactions needed. Learn feel the rhythm of the flow.
Take risk when is highest, in fact talking risk has no higher or lower risk.
when positions are initiated, all are equal risk.
Risk is only high if momentum continues cut against positions.

regards
I see... Been feeling the rhythm... My challenge now is to ride the waves instead of cutting my profits short... I've much to improve in terms of feeling the flow...

Quoting fti

when you already know the answer why do you want ask the question?
Well because i don't see 3 full waves all the time... Sometimes there is, sometimes there isn't... but i try to be nimble and refrain from predicting what's gonna happen next. The best i can do is to look at how price reacts at key s/r levels, and take the appropriate actions from there...

It's interesting to notice how price consolidates at certain levels, and how price reacts violently at others... Certainly means something is up when price revisits these areas again

Thanks for your help, FTI
  • #34,040
  • Jun 9, 2012 2:23am Jun 9, 2012 2:23am
Hi nathaniel

I think this post from fti regarding historical data/prices and ones ability to flow/dance in the market may help you understand why you are having trouble with your own expectations of what you think the market should be doing.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post2072640


post 3067.


regards


Phil


p.s thanks jimborders for the v.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
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