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Daily Break Strategy

  • #141
  • Jun 5, 2012 1:39pm Jun 5, 2012 1:39pm
Quoting lemna
Hi Wala. d,

Believe it or not, I did a manual backtest with forex tester. Time consuming but at least this gives you a feel for a strategy that you dont get from EA testing. I'm sure there were a few errors but over such a large sample I am confident the statistics I have are correct proportionately.

I have no EA and am trading it manually from GMT using alerts to my phone.

I did not look in detail at whether trades during one session had better or worse results (e.g.. Asian session). But during the manual process I did not get a feeling...
Appreciated Lemna.

I am presently investigating/testing the following improvement/variation:

* Working on the Weekly timeframe instead of the daily. In other words, the low and high of the week.

* Instead of opening 2 lots. I open one lot only. Theoretically, this should lead to better results as the RR will be 1:2 instead of being 2:3 as proposed in this thread.
  • #142
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:48am Jun 7, 2012 1:48am
Quoting lemna
Hi All

I did a back test of the last 4 years and thought I would share the data here (attached), comparing last year with last 4 years. No trades on UK public holidays or last 2 weeks of December.

My analysis is, watch out if you get 3 consecutive losing months or a draw down bigger than 10 units of risk at any time.

I can't claim every trade in the back test as 100% accurate but it should be accurate enough to give a big picture. Even with slippage and bad execution, this system still has a good expectancy. But will be pretty hard to sleep...
Quoting lemna
Hi Wala. d,

Believe it or not, I did a manual backtest with forex tester. Time consuming but at least this gives you a feel for a strategy that you dont get from EA testing. I'm sure there were a few errors but over such a large sample I am confident the statistics I have are correct proportionately.

I have no EA and am trading it manually from GMT using alerts to my phone.

I did not look in detail at whether trades during one session had better or worse results (e.g.. Asian session). But during the manual process I did not get a feeling that...

Nice job Lemna. I may share one of my other strategies in future. I use some of it basics to take more money out of this method, but the idea of tracking TP2 for higher profits is very valid.

You can have 2 approaches :
1) Putting SL to BE after TP1 and trail for TP2 with a large solid target.
2) Leave the SL at it's place if you're very selective about "when" to go for bigger profits.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #143
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:52am Jun 7, 2012 1:52am
Quoting lemna
Hi Wala. d,

Believe it or not, I did a manual backtest with forex tester. Time consuming but at least this gives you a feel for a strategy that you dont get from EA testing. I'm sure there were a few errors but over such a large sample I am confident the statistics I have are correct proportionately.

I have no EA and am trading it manually from GMT using alerts to my phone.

I did not look in detail at whether trades during one session had better or worse results (e.g.. Asian session). But during the manual process I did not get a feeling...
People, if you want to make money, you should do exactly what Lemna did. Testing any method manually will give you confidence in system, but more importantly is you can inject your ideas into it. If you observe hundreds of entries, you may see some patterns that may help you to increase your edge.

Even if you saw many traders put the same results, you yourselves should test it yourself.

Well done Lemna

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #144
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:54am Jun 7, 2012 1:54am
Quoting vasude
here is the fibo indi depends on high-low its draws...
Levels are not the same as it is on the strategy. And I don't find anywhere to change it.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #145
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:03am Jun 7, 2012 2:03am
Quoting K_Minos
I had a look today in the EA, it places two orders in the previous day low and high bur that's all it does. There is no OCO, no secondary trades and no SL to BE.

Anyone maybe using a different ea?

Thanks
Yes, it has many bugs. There are no other EAs till now.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #146
  • Jun 7, 2012 5:04am Jun 7, 2012 5:04am
Thanks Basber

Yesterday had a long TP1, didn't reach TP2 hit BE this morning.

Just entered a long breakout from yesterday's high.

Guys, will post more here as I do more research, let's see what ideas we can come up with.
  • #147
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:49am Jun 7, 2012 6:49am
Thanks to share this trading strategy with us. I will test this strategy and if profitable for me then will use in real account.
  • #148
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:59am Jun 7, 2012 6:59am
Quoting Tarusmark27
Thanks to share this trading strategy with us. I will test this strategy and if profitable for me then will use in real account.
Welcome aboard T,

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #149
  • Jun 7, 2012 7:00am Jun 7, 2012 7:00am
Quoting lemna
Thanks Basber

Yesterday had a long TP1, didn't reach TP2 hit BE this morning.

Just entered a long breakout from yesterday's high.

Guys, will post more here as I do more research, let's see what ideas we can come up with.
Same here ... Let the market decide the rest ..

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #150
  • Jun 7, 2012 7:15am Jun 7, 2012 7:15am
hello basber
how u handle the trade while big impact news.you gave a edge over fibo numbers .i am trading this in eurusd,euryen,gbpusd,gbpyen.
  • #151
  • Jun 7, 2012 7:38am Jun 7, 2012 7:38am
Quoting vasude
hello basber
how u handle the trade while big impact news.you gave a edge over fibo numbers .i am trading this in eurusd,euryen,gbpusd,gbpyen.
I usually remove the orders on Non-Farm days. I don't mind the other news. Usually traders think technical analysis and fundamental analysis are two different things, but it's not. How is it possible for technical analysis to work if it's against the fundamentals ?! It's the same, the approach for analysing is different. For example when you saw Bernanke speach have an impact on dollor, it may break the previous day's low or high and it may reach the targets. If it fails to reach the targets and hit SL, then you will understand that it wasn't so important. These kind of information usually show themselves after price moves. For example if you read Bloomberg currency news, you'll see there is always a fundamental explanation for every move and it may not be the same. Last year along with Euro Crisis, gold was treated as a safe heaven, but now it's not. Why is that ?! It's not about understanding the "why". It's about "how" we can trade along with the market and be profitable. I just expanded a little why I believe that both analysis are the same in basics. The appearance differs alot, but the man concept is the same, that's why I don't mind news. But in some news like NFP, there are lots of false break outs which hunts many trader's SLs. So I prefer to just watch the market. Slippage, Spread widening, false breaks are the reasons I will not trade NFP days and also days that atracts too many attention. For example GDP of USA in last year I believe. It depends, but it's not big a deal.

By the way, I didn't get what I expected on other pairs with this method, so instead of trading couple of pairs, I rather to increase my risk and put it only on EU.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #152
  • Jun 7, 2012 8:47am Jun 7, 2012 8:47am
eurusd long breakout reached tp1
trade at be
will bernanke push it up to tp2?
  • #153
  • Jun 7, 2012 9:02am Jun 7, 2012 9:02am
Bernanke stops me out for the 3 millionth time
  • #154
  • Jun 7, 2012 4:30pm Jun 7, 2012 4:30pm
Quoting lemna
Bernanke stops me out for the 3 millionth time
It happens Lemna. You can set a trailing distance stop for these times. I don't, because I don't mind these things when it comes to this method, but it's one of the ways to protect profits during heavy news.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #155
  • Jun 7, 2012 4:46pm Jun 7, 2012 4:46pm
True, the losses are just little sacrifices. I have faith.

Looks like today will be very short range (NR7) so tomorrow could be good.
  • #156
  • Jun 7, 2012 4:54pm Jun 7, 2012 4:54pm
Quoting lemna
True, the losses are just little sacrifices. I have faith.

Looks like today will be very short range (NR7) so tomorrow could be good.
I like the short entry, so I'll set the TP2 for the sell around 1.23xx area. Of course I'll bring SL @ BE and take partial profit @ TP1.

Note for traders : Trade management is a skill that you should learn through experience and lots of trading. Do not change anything of the main method if you're not skilled enough (trading less than 2-3 years). Stick to main system if you're not a pro when trading live. Do anything you like on demo, but do not come to conclusion on few trades. Any particular way of trade management should be tested in at least hundreds of trades.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #157
  • Jun 12, 2012 5:09am Jun 12, 2012 5:09am
Range above 170 pips for yesterday, so no orders for today.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #158
  • Jun 12, 2012 5:20am Jun 12, 2012 5:20am
This system is really great ....

Someone please make an EA now.... -)
  • #159
  • Edited 2:55am Jun 13, 2012 2:44am | Edited 2:55am
I JUST wrote an EA for this.

It's probably full of bugs, and won't be ready to trade live for a while. Still, if any of you would mind helping me test this on demos, I'm sure I can sniff those bugs out much faster.


inputs:

maxrange : maximum daily range that we will trade. default : 1700(170 pips)

lots : size of lots to trade. If you want to trade 1 lot, please put in 0.5 as this EA opens 2 orders.

magicnumber : self explanatory. make sure it's unique.

daystart : this is the hour showing on your broker at 0GMT.

buffer : default is 30. This is the distance from the high/low you want to place your pending order.

decimal : number of decimal places your broker uses for EURUSD.


To use:
just place on any eurusd chart. any time frame should work. This EA will not trade on mondays. To place order for monday, press f3 to bring up global variables. change the "trading on" to 1, and it will place the trade for you. Please do this only if you know what you're doing, and only do this once to avoid duplicate trades.


final warning: This EA is FAR from mature, and should only be used on demos. I coded this up during my lunch break, and have done extremely limited testing on it. Chances of it working exactly as it should are extremely low.

pls pm me if you find anything wrong. I expect to be flooded=)
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 daily breakout by basber.mq4   7 KB | 380 downloads
  • #160
  • Jun 13, 2012 5:55am Jun 13, 2012 5:55am
Thanks Deathbait, I will check it out.

I don't know much about EAs. Are you hoping to improve it eventually so it position sizes automatically?
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