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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #33,981
  • Jun 6, 2012 3:25am Jun 6, 2012 3:25am
Quoting AllanS
I don't use daily and weekly charts to determine trend, but only for locating S/R areas that may be good for deploying scouts and rescues. If I'm scalping 1M, I use 5M to determine the trend. Trends only make sense to me when measured close to the trading time frame.

Trading with the trend is easy. Surviving changes of trend is difficult: knowing when to rescue, when to flip and when to fold.
wrong mindset IMHO.
long charts can only indicate directional flow and momentum of the flow.
your scouts tells you where the ss/rr.

you are not supposed to survive trend change.
when trend changes, your job is to book the pips.
then to watch the battle closely, if such changes are real.

what's there to flip?
action junky behaviour is dangerous?
gambling try to catch tops and bottoms?

regards

Jubilee gifts now is presented. Learn be generous and book pips gracefully.
  • #33,982
  • Jun 6, 2012 3:28am Jun 6, 2012 3:28am
Quoting sumakianlee
Where did you learn Russian, ?

== učit od Google
brácho,,, lol ,,


Do you think , this is a good investment in the future?
I know, especially not trading opinion ... but opinion of most .

== podle mého názoru
relativní
investice je relativně

regards ,,brácho,,,
Well, finally a funny guy,enjoy
Rgs
  • #33,983
  • Edited 4:26am Jun 6, 2012 4:07am | Edited 4:26am
Quoting sukkim
I know little bit Sanskrit, It was in my childhood only.
hi , welcome
sharpen khukuri already?

regards

maybe you can teach me a trick or two.
i have 1 pair.
when sharpening, the indian issue is very easy for me manage.
But the dragon's tongue always cuts me when i try sharpen her.
oh i have 3
1 is ceremonial one , size a 2x size of sharpeners made of copper.
that one impossible sharpen.
Any tricks?
these days i abit tired, so i using sand paper finish.
but the edge not stay good for long.
Even leather trimming is not doing good.
  • #33,984
  • Edited 4:26am Jun 6, 2012 4:15am | Edited 4:26am
Quoting sukkim
I know little bit Sanskrit, It was in my childhood only.
Sanskrit is the language of the Sun.
Knowledge is the only thing to wear always have

PS for example:google translator mobile
Rgs
  • #33,985
  • Jun 6, 2012 5:00am Jun 6, 2012 5:00am
Quoting Gro
Sanskrit is the language of the Sun.
Knowledge is the only thing to wear always have : )

PS for example:google translator mobile
Rgs

taught you much about 老子?

老子 tell you la.
is easier learn the language.
try translate this.
the man went to the doctor and the doctor said he had crabs.
his wife was serving crabs.


regards
  • #33,986
  • Jun 6, 2012 5:12am Jun 6, 2012 5:12am
I love this analysis of technical analysis....

THIS IS SO TRUE and I wish I had learnt the following before I started.....

Quoting fti
Moreover the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies imposes rigid responses to changing market conditions. Have we forgotten that the market is a live beast that learns and adapts to trader behaviours? Many have forgotten that the market is the sum total of the behaviour of the participants engaged in the market place. These tools are used for measuring the markets health, not so unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just a tool.
I now look at order flow, combined with technical and fundimental analysis.
  • #33,987
  • Edited 6:20am Jun 6, 2012 5:24am | Edited 6:20am
Quoting fti

taught you much about 老子?

老子 tell you la.
is easier learn the language.
try translate this.
the man went to the doctor and the doctor said he had crabs.
his wife was serving crabs.


regards


Lao'c
I'm
"old children" (naturalness, spontaneity ...)
Rgs

"Bite into flea named Namu Amida Butsu"
  • #33,988
  • Jun 6, 2012 5:56am Jun 6, 2012 5:56am
Quoting AllanS
A hypothetical question.

Fred happens to have a spare 100k and hopes to make 0.2% on average every day. He thinks he has the time and skill to do this. Should he put the full 100k into an account and aim for 0.2%, or should he put 10k into the account and aim for 2%? With 100k account, the disaster stop would be 10%. With the 10k account, the disaster stop would be the margin call.

What would you advise Fred to do?

park all money in the bank that give better deal... and look for a good hobby... like fishing
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #33,989
  • Jun 6, 2012 6:05am Jun 6, 2012 6:05am
Quoting dongsky
park all money in the bank that give better deal... and look for a good hobby... like fishing
  • #33,990
  • Jun 6, 2012 6:07am Jun 6, 2012 6:07am
Quoting AllanS
A hypothetical question.

Fred happens to have a spare 100k and hopes to make 0.2% on average every day. He thinks he has the time and skill to do this. Should he put the full 100k into an account and aim for 0.2%, or should he put 10k into the account and aim for 2%? With 100k account, the disaster stop would be 10%. With the 10k account, the disaster stop would be the margin call.

What would you advise Fred to do?
What if you don't make any %? you can't have fixed mindset, can you?

One can't fix risk and rewards other wise...????
  • #33,991
  • Jun 6, 2012 6:58am Jun 6, 2012 6:58am
Quoting dongsky
park all money in the bank that give better deal... and look for a good hobby... like fishing
...and grow some tomatoes
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #33,992
  • Jun 6, 2012 7:16am Jun 6, 2012 7:16am
Quoting dongsky
park all money in the bank that give better deal... and look for a good hobby... like fishing
Better deal than 64.46% profit in 250 days?
  • #33,993
  • Edited 11:39am Jun 6, 2012 10:57am | Edited 11:39am
Quoting Gro


Lao'c
I'm
"old children" (naturalness, spontaneity ...)
Rgs

"Bite into flea named Namu Amida Butsu"
Hello fti
I got caught,have to laugh ... 子 in me,repair 老 in me ...
Yellow Electric Human (Keeping in the center of the circle )
Rgs and thanks
  • #33,994
  • Jun 6, 2012 6:17pm Jun 6, 2012 6:17pm
Quoting dongsky
park all money in the bank that give better deal... and look for a good hobby... like fishing
If Fred trades 10k, he can leave 90k in the bank. Yes, he risks his position snowballing in rescue mode, but if his disaster stop is 10% of 100k (to preserve capital), the total size of the account with the broker actually makes no difference. On the other hand, if Fred deposits 100k, all of his spare capital is with the broker, and that also sounds risky. Not only that, the temptation to exceed 10% drawdown will always be there.

Dongsky, suppose dear Aunt Mabel is eaten by an octopus (her hobby was fishing) and leaves you 100k in her will. Would you put it all with the broker?
  • #33,995
  • Jun 6, 2012 6:22pm Jun 6, 2012 6:22pm
Quoting AllanS
If Fred trades 10k, he can leave 90k in the bank. Yes, he risks his position snowballing in rescue mode, but if his disaster stop is 10% of 100k (to preserve capital), the total size of the account with the broker actually makes no difference. On the other hand, if Fred deposits 100k, all of his spare capital is with the broker, and that also sounds risky. Not only that, the temptation to exceed 10% drawdown will always be there.

Dongsky, suppose dear Aunt Mabel is eaten by an octopus (her hobby was fishing) and leaves you 100k in her will. Would...

i will put it in the bank... and like lusan said... i will just plant tomatoes since fishing is a bit risky now a days

rigidity begets rigid results...

i rest my case
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #33,996
  • Jun 6, 2012 6:26pm Jun 6, 2012 6:26pm
Dear all,

Does anyone know where i can get the book on compound charts? Thanks

Also, I wanted to clarify some doubts of mine:

1. When volatility is low/tight, we can afford to stay in battle for long but will not deploy the full attack sequence?
2. When volatility is high (range play of 50pips average), we can be more aggressive in order to quickly finish off the enemy?

Can someone also explain what does inward and outward skew for fib progression mean?

Thanks in advanced...
  • #33,997
  • Jun 6, 2012 6:34pm Jun 6, 2012 6:34pm
Quoting Baifu
Better deal than 64.46% profit in 250 days?
Exactly. I'd ask Fred if he was quite sure 64% wasn't living in fantasy land. Is he really that good a trader, or merely a margin call waiting to happen?

Besides, if Super-Fred can make 0.2% a day and he begins with a mere 10k account, he'll have his 100k in a few years anyway, courtesy of the market.
  • #33,998
  • Jun 6, 2012 6:44pm Jun 6, 2012 6:44pm
Quoting dongsky
rigidity begets rigid results...
Fred only takes what the market gives. He's nimble, sharp, and goes with the flow. The 0.2% return is an average. The only rigidity in his MO is the 10% disaster loss.

Do you think having a fixed disaster stop a bad idea? How deep are you willing you go into drawdown? It's cold and dark down there. And many octopus. (RIP Aunt Mabel...)
  • #33,999
  • Jun 6, 2012 7:20pm Jun 6, 2012 7:20pm
Quoting AllanS
Fred only takes what the market gives. He's nimble, sharp, and goes with the flow. The 0.2% return is an average. The only rigidity in his MO is the 10% disaster loss.

Do you think having a fixed disaster stop a bad idea? How deep are you willing you go into drawdown? It's cold and dark down there. And many octopus. (RIP Aunt Mabel...)
Playing with octopus's now. deep in the waters. All I can say is "it's margin or profit" "do or die" "take no prisoners"

Maybe I am going to see aunt Maybel?
  • #34,000
  • Jun 6, 2012 8:32pm Jun 6, 2012 8:32pm
Quoting fti
wrong mindset IMHO.
long charts can only indicate directional flow and momentum of the flow.
your scouts tells you where the ss/rr.
On the EU weekly, I see the two resistances marked as part of the terrain that may well come into play today. I anticipate some selling at these prices. Nothing might come of it, but I'm ready. The risk is getting so distracted by lines on the chart that I fail to see what is actually happening.

That first weekly low is 2587. The current price has stalled here and has been weakening for a few hours. I'm short one scout at 2578. I'm looking for a retest of 2500, and will mount a rescue if needed around 2623. This is the battlefield as I see it. I will attack and retreat as best I can within this space until it becomes obvious to do otherwise.

Quote
you are not supposed to survive trend change. when trend changes, your job is to book the pips. then to watch the battle closely, if such changes are real..
That certainly is my goal. Until that happy day, if I survive the consolidations and make money on the trends, at least I remain alive to fight another day.


Quote
what's there to flip?
action junky behaviour is dangerous?
gambling try to catch tops and bottoms?
Yes. Perhaps "flip" is too gymnastic. When I see I'm trading against the trend, I take the loss, make some coffee, and wait for a good spot to re-enter in the opposite direction. Basically, I try not to panic.

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