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Trading journal - from dust to gold

  • #1
  • First Post: May 27, 2012 7:55am May 27, 2012 7:55am
learning to read price
  • #2
  • Edited 8:47am May 27, 2012 8:12am | Edited 8:47am
Week May 28, 2012

Long @ 123.62
SL @ 123.32
FLS @ 124.10

These are setups that I'm watching
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  • #3
  • May 27, 2012 8:45am May 27, 2012 8:45am
.
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  • #4
  • May 27, 2012 9:17am May 27, 2012 9:17am
Fake breakout on both pair. Not the best fake breakout IMO, I prefer longer wick penetrating the support/resistance so we are pretty sure the stops are flushed.

I prefer USD/CAD compared to the CAD/JPY due to USD/CAD is at daily resistance and the ascending wedge looks like a compression to me. Due to low liquidity this upcoming Monday, will probably be on the sideline.
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  • #5
  • May 28, 2012 5:56am May 28, 2012 5:56am
Quoting arcus
Fake breakout on both pair. Not the best fake breakout IMO, I prefer longer wick penetrating the support/resistance so we are pretty sure the stops are flushed.

I prefer USD/CAD compared to the CAD/JPY due to USD/CAD is at daily resistance and the ascending wedge looks like a compression to me. Due to low liquidity this upcoming Monday, will probably be on the sideline.
Nice move on market open today. Too bad not on this trade.
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  • #6
  • Edited 9:01am May 28, 2012 8:19am | Edited 9:01am
USD/CAD looks like it is entering a correction. PB which looks like a fake breakout formed, but this is really not the nicest fake breakout, or probably it is not. Very thin market too, so I am entering with very low risk.

It has confluence with USDx, off the support and expected to fill the gap.

Long @ 1.02446
SL @ 1.02215.

Update #1
Tighten SL to 1.02334.
The way equities behaving is not good for my UCad. We'll see how it goes.
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  • #7
  • Edited 10:36pm May 28, 2012 9:25am | Edited 10:36pm
Quoting arcus
...

Long @ 1.02446
SL @ 1.02215.

Update #1
Tighten SL to 1.02334.
The way equities behaving is not good for my UCad. We'll see how it goes.
Ok. First TP hit @ 1.02651 for +0.89R for the first position (50% off)

Tighten SL further to 1.02370

Update #2
With London close in an hour, market is pretty much dead now. So rest of the post is at BE+, and I'm calling it a day.

Rest of the position stopped out for BE+.
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  • #8
  • May 30, 2012 7:10am May 30, 2012 7:10am
Looks like market has been moving a fair bit of amount while I was working.

I'm in this. Will update later, need to manage it right now.
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  • #9
  • May 30, 2012 7:30am May 30, 2012 7:30am
Quoting arcus
Looks like market has been moving a fair bit of amount while I was working.

I'm in this. Will update later, need to manage it right now.
Short on the supply, original limit never get triggered. So manually entered the trade @ 123.42, cant remember the original SL.

Now changed the SL above the swing high @ 123.43, will move to BE later, need to gauge the reaction at that area first. 50% is already off @ 123.25.

GBP/USD also has the same setup, but did not notice that until a friend mentioned it.

Update #1
SL is at BE+
Will take another 30% off @ 123.14 and the rest I plan to trail.
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  • #10
  • May 30, 2012 8:14am May 30, 2012 8:14am
Quoting arcus
Update #1
SL is at BE+
Will take another 30% off @ 123.14 and the rest I plan to trail.
Update #2
Second TP hit.

Will trail the rest since equities looks like a price pressure to break the support, NYSE opens in 15mins+, hoping it will bring the bears.

Another round of compression on GBP/JPY which works nicely so far.
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  • #11
  • May 30, 2012 10:34am May 30, 2012 10:34am
Quoting arcus
Update #2
Second TP hit.

Will trail the rest since equities looks like a price pressure to break the support, NYSE opens in 15mins+, hoping it will bring the bears.

Another round of compression on GBP/JPY which works nicely so far.
Update #3

Had a significant bounce on equities, but I would expect the area marked to hold (may not hold as well) but looking on equities on a larger TF, it certainly looks like it still can move down. I was thinking even if that area would hold, I would be giving out too much profit by then. So decided to close the remaining portion as would need to get some sleep.

Close @ 122.60 for a total of +2.68R Initial SL was 123.57/60ish.
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  • #12
  • May 30, 2012 10:37am May 30, 2012 10:37am
Quoting arcus
Week May 28, 2012

Long @ 123.62
SL @ 123.32
FLS @ 124.10

These are setups that I'm watching
Had a bit of luck on this one, as I am away while this is triggered. Would certainly result in loss if taken and not managed properly. I guess 2012 is the year to short everything
  • #13
  • Edited 10:08am May 31, 2012 9:57am | Edited 10:08am
So much missed opportunity today due to work.

Long @ 78.48 based on demand zone.
SL @ 78.34 and will adjust shortly to tighten it.

Not looking great so far, recent bad US data is really not helping on this one.
Equities can't find a proper footing which should be good for the dollar, but the fall in JPY crosses plus end of the month flows really soften the effort to rally.

Update #1

Took a loss on this one. Out @ 78.422. Just at the right time

Loss -0.43R
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  • #14
  • Edited 7:35am Jun 4, 2012 7:06am | Edited 7:35am
Week of June 8, 2012

Long @ 1.24352
SL @ 1.24250 (11.2 incl. spread)

This is an attempt to pre-empt a breakout to the upside. Will see how it works out. The hourly chart just closed, I wanted it to close a bit higher, but oh well I'm in already. Let see if 1.2440 can hold, so the chances of the hourly compression to work out could be lessen. That's the only thing that worries me right now.

Update #1
Stopped out for -1R..
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  • #15
  • Edited 8:41am Jun 4, 2012 8:18am | Edited 8:41am
Quoting arcus
Update #1
Stopped out for -1R..
There we go!
Re-entered, will update later.

Update #2
Re-entered @ 2438 with SL @ 2424

Closed 50% @ 24698 for +2.27R
Closed 30% @ 24955 for +4.1R
Total of +6.37R
Rest is at BE
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  • #16
  • Edited 9:55am Jun 4, 2012 9:36am | Edited 9:55am
Quoting arcus
There we go!
Re-entered, will update later.

Update #2
Re-entered @ 2438 with SL @ 2424

Closed 50% @ 24698 for +2.27R
Closed 30% @ 24955 for +4.1R
Total of +6.37R
Rest is at BE
Update #3
Closed the rest @ 24891 for +3.65R

Total is +10R

Ok. I calculate the %R wrongly. No wonder it looks like a huge gain!

+2.27R x 0.50 = +1.14R
+4.1R x 0.30 = +1.23R
+3.65R x 0.20 = +0.73R

with total of +3.1R
  • #17
  • Jun 6, 2012 8:58am Jun 6, 2012 8:58am
This is from yesterday's trade. Set the order and went to sleep and TP hit when I woke up.

Short @ 27940
SL @ 28060 (12pips + 1.6/2 pips ~ 14)
TP @ 27660 (28 pips)

Initially was targeting the source of move, but since due to bed time, just have to set and forget. So I have to change the TP to be conservative but with %R atleast 1R.

TP hit for +2R.. Anyway, this is taken on Account #2. Others posted are Account #1.
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  • #18
  • Jun 6, 2012 9:09am Jun 6, 2012 9:09am
Another trade taken on Account #2.

This is a trade taken because of rejection of RN number @ 1.5500. It was more of how price strongly reject the level and it coincides with supply zone. SP was also nearing supply zone but given Draghi speaking at that time/ data as well sentiment could change but regardless I decided to take a shot (no pun intended) with small risk.

Price later formed the triangle + price pressure. I was thinking if price invalidate the price pressure by breaking upward, then I'll close it. However, the data was in favor with the trade

Short @ 54870
SL @ 55100 (23 pips)
TP @ 54500 (37 pips)

TP hit for +1.6R
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  • #19
  • Jun 6, 2012 9:20am Jun 6, 2012 9:20am
First time back to supply zone and resistance.

Short @ 1.03611
SL @ 1.03720 (10.9 ps)

However, was stopped out by 0.8 pips!
So take a loss for -1R.

----------

Wait, not going to give up yet!

Short again @ 1.03556 (at a worse price!)
SL @ 1.03666 (11 pips)

70% @ 1.03468 (8/11 * 0.70 = +0.50R)
30% @ 1.03266 (29/11 * 0.30 = +0.79R)

Total of +1.29R.

Net total +0.29R. Yeah, not a good return given the loss but enough to cover the losses plus some small margin of profit.
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  • #20
  • Jun 7, 2012 9:20am Jun 7, 2012 9:20am
From yesterday. I found it quite hard to post setup on real time.

Long based on the false break.
Long @ 1.26508
SL @ 1.26370 (13.8)

50% off @ 1.26658 (15ps) due to bed time and put the rest to BE. Was planning to put a TP but later decided not too, maybe can get more.

50% hit BE @ 1.26540. (1 ps since 3 is spreads).

Total of +0.58R
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