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Higher low, lower high system

  • #5,461
  • May 17, 2012 3:46pm May 17, 2012 3:46pm
Understood, thanks Vantage. Don't worry about the delay btw, at least we're the same latitude . Looking back to yesterday, Spot Gold (similar set up) was the one to trade in hindsight. Thanks again.
  • #5,462
  • May 18, 2012 12:53am May 18, 2012 12:53am
Quoting Hyperion
Understood, thanks Vantage. Don't worry about the delay btw, at least we're the same latitude . Looking back to yesterday, Spot Gold (similar set up) was the one to trade in hindsight. Thanks again.
We had focus on GU. EU D had a doji the day before Y on a proven SR level. GU had a nice solid close with little/no lower wick on 16th breaking through what we saw as a SR level, so as soon as the 1hr went in line with a close that slightly engulfed the previous pa (early and late morning GMT) there were pretty straight forward 5 min lh entries. Mrs V wasn't at the computer early but the late am trades were as straight forward as it gets.

In a nutshell - keep in trend on D, wait for 1hr to close in line with D take 1st 5 min lh/hl that follows (1st hl/lh invariably the best trade). If LO counter trend on D leave it, most prob the head fake. Avoid weak counter trend early/pre US moves, wait for London trend to resume. London close reversals are tradable as scalps.

Once you've got that mastered then you can get a little bit friskier counter trend at proven SR levels. I am hesitant to take eur and jpy pairs counter trend as they don't have the same size of moves or just get too erractic for my liking.

I could go on a little more about some candle patterns etc etc but there Mr and Mrs V's trading strategy (pretty much) in 2 paragraphs. Who said trading has to be complicated.
  • #5,463
  • May 18, 2012 1:09am May 18, 2012 1:09am
Quoting Vantage
Hi
8 hrs ago when posted I was asleep (about 1am here).


OK on D chart you have a proven S level going back to 15 Dec. That gives the potential for a bounce from this level. D close Y was a red doji which MAY support a bounce from .9880 area.

1hr showing divergence on your stoch and my rsi at the low. A 1hr hl after divergence is normally a trade. This would nevertheless be a counter trend trade and you'd need to take care.

The 1hr candle you show, after its close there was a pullback below 5 min lwma and a hl from there. Thats where I'd...
As suspected the 1hr counter trend aud gave a scalp buy opp. The zoomed chart shows trend much clearer. Basically as above post the buy was counter trend take care, as soon as 1hr gives a solid candle that rejects the red line SR level and reverts to trend the move down continues.

This is as good as an example as any of a simple trend method.
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  • #5,464
  • May 20, 2012 11:31pm May 20, 2012 11:31pm
Thanks for the continued updates Vantage. By the way from earlier posts I see you're a fan of Rossi, I bought one of his Sun/Moon helmets to go with my Monster (too much?? )
  • #5,465
  • May 21, 2012 12:05pm May 21, 2012 12:05pm
Quoting Hyperion
Thanks for the continued updates Vantage. By the way from earlier posts I see you're a fan of Rossi, I bought one of his Sun/Moon helmets to go with my Monster (too much?? )
Nice one, looks like it'll have to rain every race for Rossi to have a chance!!
  • #5,466
  • May 21, 2012 12:13pm May 21, 2012 12:13pm
Mrs V had a couple of BE euro trades earlier when nothing followed through.

GJ had a big leg down last week to stop at S area going back to 13 July '11, Fri was almost no follow through considering the size of the prev D's close. On to today, 1hr shooting star then neg closes. 5 min, pushed up to Y's high 125.64 rejected strongly with a shooting star lh. Exit just shy of +30 when pivot/Thurs low held a couple of times.
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  • #5,467
  • May 25, 2012 10:04am May 25, 2012 10:04am
The eur downtrend on D chart is clear. 1hr had move up this am, but 3 1hr upper wicks suggested that Y's high/2600/R1 was going to hold.

In terms of our rules we didn't have nice angle on 5 min ma's but we did have clear 1hr candles setting up move back into trend. 5 min lh little/no lower wick, Mrs V just waited for push through 75 level.

Exit just shy of +50 when Y's low 2515 held and pushed up.
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  • #5,468
  • May 25, 2012 10:40am May 25, 2012 10:40am
looks clear atm, but Im suspecting a major bounce anytime soon, not sure where tho?
maybe it will take speed to the upside instead of braking down?
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #5,469
  • May 26, 2012 3:50am May 26, 2012 3:50am
Eur daily failed to go significantly lower over the last 2 days and divergence is starting to show on D chart as well as the 4hr chart. I've shown fibs a couple of times on the shorter and longer moves. Each fib that corresponds to a SR level has the potential to move the market one way or the other.

What is fairly obvious is the generally weak push up on all retracements since 1 May, apart from 18-21 May that is.

Even if there are buy opp's that fall within our rules it would prob be the view that they are CT rallies. Daily divergence needs to be noted but apart from that I don't see too many reasons to be buying and if I recall correctly big boys adding to their eur shorts.

Some good news coming out of Greece might cause a 1 day reversal that carries on going up, I don't see that happening and would suspect a D chart dble bttm/hl would need to play out before changing view on trend. That could easily take a week or more to play out, see the attached eur D chart with the arrows. Each turn on D took 4-7 days to play out.

Bottom line I have no idea where we are going at this point, will look to system to keep us out of trouble buying until the pic is clearer. At this point still no reason not to sell if trades line up as required.

Am aware of the D and 4hr divergence.

Not an Elliott wave genius by any stretch of the imagination but if 2 April is start of 3 waves down then we could be in for a correction.
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  • #5,470
  • May 27, 2012 3:21am May 27, 2012 3:21am
Quoting Vantage
Eur daily failed to go significantly lower over the last 2 days and divergence is starting to show on D chart as well as the 4hr chart. I've shown fibs a couple of times on the shorter and longer moves. Each fib that corresponds to a SR level has the potential to move the market one way or the other.

What is fairly obvious is the generally weak push up on all retracements since 1 May, apart from 18-21 May that is.

Even if there are buy opp's that fall within our rules it would prob be the view that they are CT rallies. Daily divergence needs...
Eur 1hr showing lh's/ll's so downtrend is still in tact. A 1hr intraday hl Monday (failed move up in Lon session and hl in US session) might give a short term scalp but for the moment thats all it would be IMHO, until pa firmly proves otherwise.
  • #5,471
  • May 29, 2012 10:57am May 29, 2012 10:57am
GU 1hr shooting star at Y's high/W pivot combo in downtrend.

Mrs V had the 5 min treble top but waited for the evening star neg close candle below the RN. Sold at 5695 exit 5671 for her 1 and only trade today. She had to go out this afternoon and missed the big run down that started about an hour ago.

Anyway she did not have nicely angled ma's on 5 min for the sell but she had a good 1hr candle (shooting star) at a key level to return into the downtrend. So this trade complied with our rules (1hr set up into trend).
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  • #5,472
  • May 29, 2012 11:01am May 29, 2012 11:01am
Quoting Vantage
GU 1hr shooting star at Y's high/W pivot combo in downtrend.

Mrs V had the 5 min treble top but waited for the evening star neg close candle below the RN. Sold at 5695 exit 5671 for her 1 and only trade today. She had to go out this afternoon and missed the big run down that started about an hour ago.

Anyway she did not have nicely angled ma's on 5 min for the sell but she had a good 1hr candle (shooting star) at a key level to return into the downtrend. So this trade complied with our rules (1hr set up into trend).
Just thought I'd mention she did not want to take the hl buy 9.40am chart time this am despite the perfect angle/separation of 5 min ma's, didn't want to go counter trend against the 1hr smallish upper wick at today's open 5680. No problem.
  • #5,473
  • May 30, 2012 11:05am May 30, 2012 11:05am
Mrs V did not have a lot of chance to trade today so missed these perfect set ups.

D trend is obviously down, 1hr set up candles, this morning a shooting star and this afternoon a neg close in resumption of trend.

The red lines on 5 min show where the 1hr set up candles closed. Its fine to trade the 5 min lh that occurs when a 1hr closes.

These are straight forward lh sells as we have been doing for years.
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  • #5,474
  • May 30, 2012 11:12am May 30, 2012 11:12am
Hello Mr Vantage!
Can you tell me what moving averages do you use at 5 min chart?
  • #5,475
  • Jun 3, 2012 11:21am Jun 3, 2012 11:21am
Quoting Flaviu1981
Hello Mr Vantage!
Can you tell me what moving averages do you use at 5 min chart?
8 lwma, price opening, moving through and closing the other side of the ma the basic set up candle. Price going 1 pip beyond the extreme our press the button requirement.

Currently using 30 ema and 96 lwma. The 96 lwma is to approximate the 1hr 8 lwma.

If you have good angle on the ma's you should generally be OK. If you don't we want a clear, convincing 1hr candle that moves back into the D trend and we'll take 5 min hl/lh's that follow. A couple of examples of taking 5 min trades against their ma's but in line with D trend are posted above.

At the moment our basic trend definitions revolve around D fozzy rsi crossed above below its ma, D rsi above/below its 50 level. Having a basic look at candles on D chart. Certain combinations might suggest chance to by or sell on a particular day but hopefully mostly giving suggestions of trading in 1 direction only.
  • #5,476
  • Edited 4:55am Jun 9, 2012 4:44am | Edited 4:55am
I have been asked a couple of times about my (relatively simple) view on pa and following the daily. I added a fairly long post onto my blog but in essence follow the D, counter trend days may = buy chances the next day but look for signs of reverting to trend. 1hr should be showing lower highs, lower lows in downtrend. If this sequence breaks take care selling. The 1hr should show signs when reverting to D trend (divergence, double top/lower high to return into downtrend).

Ralph Shell posted a nice article here http://www.cashbackforex.com/article...s.aspx?aid=112 Are we closer to the end of the euro crises?
  • #5,477
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:52am Jul 5, 2012 11:52am
Haven't posted for some time. There have been some pretty straight forward trades over last few weeks. Mrs V is 8-9% up this week which is not too shabby. Could have been better but her chart time was restricted.

After a strong move up on D chart two doji's did not inspire confidence in follow through up. Cause/effect - a big engulfing candle should follow through and the failure to do so should give warning signals.

GU broke its immediate range lower on 4th, did a wait 20 mins and try again pause (thanks Islander) and a straight forward 20 pips down to the W pivot.

She was out for the US session but due to the US hols would probably have passed in any event.
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  • #5,478
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:57am Jul 5, 2012 11:57am
Quoting Vantage
After a strong move up on D chart two doji's did not inspire confidence in follow through up. Cause/effect - a big engulfing candle should follow through and the failure to do so should give warning signals.

GU broke its immediate range lower on 4th, did a wait 20 mins and try again pause (thanks Islander) and a straight forward 20 pips down to the W pivot.

She was out for the US session but due to the US hols would probably have passed in any event.
Oh wanted to comment on the above 1hr chart for Y. The intraday lh/hl (lh in this case) see right arrow down on 1hr is normally a decent signal IMHO. When it follows a D set up becomes a very strong signal.
  • #5,479
  • Jul 5, 2012 12:03pm Jul 5, 2012 12:03pm
After the strong neg close Y to form a type of evening star pattern (pos close, hesitation, neg close) it was sells bias today.

With the sell set up on D, 1hr had a nice red doji reject the D pivot to set up the sell. No need to wait for an rsi crossing lower on 1hr if you are following indis.

5 min lh shooting star, little/no lower wick pretty straight forward.
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  • #5,480
  • Jul 5, 2012 12:04pm Jul 5, 2012 12:04pm
This intraday 1hr lower high set up some nice moves.
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