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TEB63 weekly-daily-4 hour

  • #41
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:26pm Jun 1, 2012 8:26pm
Quoting TEB63
Not a normal week
Out of 4 trades normally at least one loser
That’s great TEB63. It answers my question above. You have a 75% strike rate or 75% percentage of winning trades or non-losing trades.

According to a formula for calculating losing sequences in horse racing based on the player’s past strike rate, we can try to answer the questions below.

How many trades am I going to have before I experience a losing sequence of 1?

Trades = 1 / (1 – 0.75) ** 1 = 4

How many trades am I going to have before I experience a losing sequence of 2?

Trades = 1 / (1 – 0.75) ** 2 = 16

How many trades am I going to have before I experience a losing sequence of 3?

Trades = 1 / (1 – 0.75) ** 3 = 64

How many trades am I going to have before I experience a losing sequence of 4?

Trades = 1 / (1 – 0.75) ** 4 = 256

How many trades am I going to have before I experience a losing sequence of 5?

Trades = 1 / (1 – 0.75) ** 5 = 1024

I really don’t know how valid it is for trading, but it could be a useful little formula.
  • #42
  • Jun 1, 2012 10:04pm Jun 1, 2012 10:04pm
Quoting behman8850
What do you think my trades are? I do 0.05 all the time, i know my limit!! Been doing this since 1998!!

ok, how many traders did you take?
on what time frames?
  • #43
  • Jun 1, 2012 10:07pm Jun 1, 2012 10:07pm
Quoting Macdon
That’s great TEB63. It answers my question above. You have a 75% strike rate or 75% percentage of winning trades or non-losing trades.

According to a formula for calculating losing sequences in horse racing based on the player’s past strike rate, we can try to answer the questions below.

How many trades am I going to have before I experience a losing sequence of 1?

Trades = 1 / (1 – 0.75) ** 1 = 4

How many trades am I going to have before I experience a losing sequence of 2?

Trades = 1 / (1 – 0.75) ** 2 = 16

How many trades am I going...

ok, what does this do for us?
I understand the math, but how does it help us?
  • #44
  • Jun 1, 2012 10:27pm Jun 1, 2012 10:27pm
Quoting TEB63
This system has losers and a number of loser in a row!
Quoting TEB63
It’s a very good system it’s not perfect.
Slow and constant wins the race.
You do not want 3 or 4 loser in a row to kill you.
Because the stops and targets are large you have to have small amounts on each trade.
Otherwise you are gambling,
that...
It’s a response to your statement above.

It helps us to position size. The higher the strike rate, the more you can risk per trade.
  • #45
  • Jun 2, 2012 12:00am Jun 2, 2012 12:00am
Quoting Andy B
He means the reward-to-risk ratio is 3, the take profit target is 3 times the stop loss level
thank you
  • #46
  • Jun 2, 2012 12:11am Jun 2, 2012 12:11am
TEB, I'm very intrigued by the system. It looks good. Thank you for posting it. The time frames fit me just fine, as I work full-time and can only check the charts on and off throughout the day.

I'm a little "fuzzy" on the entries. I know you are waiting on a break of the 40 SMA on the 4H chart, but do I understand that you are also generally waiting on an additional swing low and then placing a limit order on the retracement from that low (either at a 50% fib or significant S/R)?

will be looking forward to your further postings of trades and charts to hopefully clarify this in my mind. Thanks again.

Scott

Quoting TEB63
so anyone else trading this system?
is anyone finding it helpful?
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #47
  • Jun 2, 2012 12:30am Jun 2, 2012 12:30am
Quoting thehenryfam
TEB, I'm very intrigued by the system. It looks good. Thank you for posting it. The time frames fit me just fine, as I work full-time and can only check the charts on and off throughout the day.

I'm a little "fuzzy" on the entries. I know you are waiting on a break of the 40 SMA on the 4H chart, but do I understand that you are also generally waiting on an additional swing low and then placing a limit order on the retracement from that low (either at a 50% fib or significant S/R)?

will be looking forward to your further postings of trades...
few way to play the entry
1st. we must always have
Price below all three 40 SMA
price below all 3 Swing lows

you have then the 4 kinds of entries
1. 3 pips below the break of the old swing low
2. price breaks the old swing low then moves back up to the 50%
3. price breaks the old swing low then moves back up to retest the old S/R
4. We have a strong trend on all 3 time frames
We then look for a candle entry on the day or 4 hour.
  • #48
  • Jun 2, 2012 12:37am Jun 2, 2012 12:37am
Thank you, sir -- that helps a great deal. How you determine whether to use #1 versus #2/#3 below? In other words, in what situations are you deciding to wait to see if price retraces for a better entry? The strength of the trend mainly or something else?

Scott

Quoting TEB63
few way to play the entry
1st. we must always have
Price below all three 40 SMA
price below all 3 Swing lows

you have then the 4 kinds of entries
1. 3 pips below the break of the old swing low
2. price breaks the old swing low then moves back up to the 50%
3. price breaks the old swing low then moves back up to retest the old S/R
4. We have a strong trend on all 3 time frames
We then look for a candle entry on the day or 4 hour.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #49
  • Jun 2, 2012 12:41am Jun 2, 2012 12:41am
Quoting thehenryfam
Thank you, sir -- that helps a great deal. How you determine whether to use #1 versus #2/#3 below? In other words, in what situations are you deciding to wait to see if price retraces for a better entry? The strength of the trend mainly or something else?

Scott
1. strenght - yes
the more you do it the more you see the patterns

2, sometimes you miss the 1st one because price is not below the 40sma on the 4 hour
so you get the retest and price is now below 40 sma

3. sometimes a realist RRR is only possible with a 50% fib. esp on a big pin candle

4. sometime you just plain miss the trade and the forex gives a 2nd or 3rd chance
  • #50
  • Jun 2, 2012 6:08am Jun 2, 2012 6:08am
Wow next week

This will be a very hard week for any trending system
England is on holiday Monday and Tuesday so thin market
Then we have 4 interest rates decisions and 4 central bank statements!!
Euro the most important
the Usd fed is speaking too!!!

It will be a trend nightmare

If you are looking to starting this system it may not me the best week to start live trading,



Mon
Jun 4
All Day
GBP
Bank Holiday

Tue
Jun 5
12:30am
AUD
Overnight Rate
All Day
GBP
Bank Holiday
9:00am
CAD
Overnight Rate

Wed
Jun 6
7:45am
EUR
Minimum Bid Rate
8:30am
EUR
ECB Press Conference

Thu
Jun 7
7:00am
GBP
Official Bank Rate

Fri
Jun 8
10:00am
USD
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

  • #51
  • Jun 2, 2012 2:37pm Jun 2, 2012 2:37pm
How can you "miss the first one" if the price is not below 40 SMA on the 4-hour? I didn't think it was a valid trade to begin with unless it was below the 40?

A little injection of humor: my daughter was reading the screen over my shoulder, and she said, "50% fib? Is that like a half-lie?"

Scott

Quoting TEB63
1. strenght - yes
the more you do it the more you see the patterns

2, sometimes you miss the 1st one because price is not below the 40sma on the 4 hour
so you get the retest and price is now below 40 sma

3. sometimes a realist RRR is only possible with a 50% fib. esp on a big pin candle

4. sometime you just plain miss the trade and the forex gives a 2nd or 3rd chance
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #52
  • Jun 3, 2012 5:10pm Jun 3, 2012 5:10pm
Quoting thehenryfam
How can you "miss the first one" if the price is not below 40 SMA on the 4-hour? I didn't think it was a valid trade to begin with unless it was below the 40?

A little injection of humor: my daughter was reading the screen over my shoulder, and she said, "50% fib? Is that like a half-lie?"

Scott

The 1st break of the R/S maybeabove the 40ams
but the 40 sma may drop down with a few candles and now the restest
is below the 40sma
  • #53
  • Jun 3, 2012 5:48pm Jun 3, 2012 5:48pm
This could be a very hard week for trend traders
esp with the queen’s celebrations for the next two days and london closed down.
the fed speaking at the end of the week
and 4 interest rate decisions this week

But I still think the eur is in a lot of problems.
I would like to trade the eurjpy but I do not have an entry on it
The jpy vs the aud or nzd may be possible trades as well
But the trade I like in a thin market is the eurusd
at
entry: Limit Sell 1.2392
SL 1.2465
TP 1.2160
RRR 3 to 1
2% of account


  • #54
  • Jun 3, 2012 6:33pm Jun 3, 2012 6:33pm
Quoting TEB63
This could be a very hard week for trend traders
esp with the queen’s celebrations for the next two days and london closed down.
the fed speaking at the end of the week
and 4 interest rate decisions this week

But I still think the eur is in a lot of problems.
[color=black][font=Verdana]I would like to trade the eurjpy but I do not have...
Hi bro, Please what makes you enter this trade?
Much luv
If you don't control your emotion it will control you.
  • #55
  • Jun 3, 2012 6:46pm Jun 3, 2012 6:46pm
Quoting emmy01
Hi bro, Please what makes you enter this trade?
Much luv

according to my rules
I have a strong trend
1. price below the 40sma on all 3 time frames
2. all 3 40sma have good points down
3. all 3 time frames are swing down -
- lower highs and lower lows

4. I look for a candle enter on the 4 hour
we see a 3 candle reveral
3 lower lows on 3 candles (if my sell limit is taken out )
  • #56
  • Jun 4, 2012 1:24pm Jun 4, 2012 1:24pm
eurusd Stop loss hit 70 pips
  • #57
  • Jun 5, 2012 4:48am Jun 5, 2012 4:48am
gbpusd
limit sell 1.5345
sl 1.5421
tp 1.5110
RRR 3 to 1
2%
  • #58
  • Jun 5, 2012 7:38am Jun 5, 2012 7:38am
Audjpy sell limit
Entry 75.88
SL 76.56
TP 74.05
RRR 3 to 1
2%
  • #59
  • Jun 5, 2012 9:04am Jun 5, 2012 9:04am
audusd sell limit
En: 0.9708
SL: 0.9775
TP:0.9510
RRR 3+ to 1
2%
  • #60
  • Jun 5, 2012 12:39pm Jun 5, 2012 12:39pm
eurusd sell limit
en: 1.2405
SL:1.2475
TP: 1.2160
RRR 3+ to 1
2%
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