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Buy sell line trading

  • #1,381
  • Jun 1, 2012 11:41am Jun 1, 2012 11:41am
Bedayan

The testing was done manually (without Forextester) and in a mechanical fashion that did not take into account anything subjective, such as support/resistance.
  • #1,382
  • Jun 1, 2012 11:46am Jun 1, 2012 11:46am
Quoting California
60

Some time back, I believe you posted about the value in having data showing how far a typical winning trade goes, e.g. 1:1, 2:1, 3:1, etc. The following is for Entry #2 (Steven Primo's Strategy #4). It is a proof-of-concept that provided me with a rough idea as to "yes, there is an edge here...more research is warranted"...nothing more than that.

[font=Arial]I chose two pairs that have a lot of persistent price movement and one pair that I thought may be the choppiest/noisiest pair of all, and...
wow great stuff... did you move stops at 1/1 or did the data allow for that?
tradewith60
  • #1,383
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:52pm Jun 1, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting 60minuteman
wow great stuff... did you move stops at 1/1 or did the data allow for that?
60

Thx. The testing did not allow for that. The objective was to determine whether there is an edge on a mechanical basis w/ 1:1 as a base case. Mission accomplished.

I am a believer in keeping things as simple as possible in a strategy, both conceptually and in the number of parameters and indi's used. I had the good fortune of being affiliated with an institutional quant team of mathematicians, statisticians, and programmers. I learned that even the most meticulous and painstaking forms of research have their shortfalls.

The main thing I learned is that effects/edges will change over time as the market itself changes. As one example, in the 80's and '90's stock market, if today was up, tomorrow would tend to be up. And if today was down, tomorrow would tend to be down. This was a boon for momentum strategies; terrible for mean reversion strategies. But post-'99, the relationship changed, and if today was up tomorrow would tend to be down. This favored mean reversion strategies, and the RSI(2) became popular with swing traders of stocks/etf's in timing pullback entries/exits. Before '99, though, and more recently, RSI(2) strategies were a disaster.

The point here is that the simpler a strategy is, the less it will be susceptible to changes in market structure. At least that is my opinion. Having more than one strategy in one's toolkit can diversify the risk and lower the stress of that one strategy going through an extended soft patch.
  • #1,384
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:52pm Jun 1, 2012 4:52pm
Quoting California
60
i have been in the FF forums for years but never saw a thread I cared to post to...until now. Thx for your effort in putting this thread together. I have traded stocks successfully for 20 years. A few years ago I began trading forex, and it was then that I read Steven Primo's book. Since then, I have traded engulfing bars on D1, risking 0.5%, and returning about 4%-5%/monthly on average whilst trading 25 pairs and spending 25 minutes/day. This translates to 16%-20% on average had I been risking 2% instead of 0.5%. H4 is my favorite TF, but my...
Hello California,
Is the mint strategy your referring to in his book ?
  • #1,385
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:59pm Jun 1, 2012 5:59pm
Quoting tex123
Hello California,
Is the mint strategy your referring to in his book ?
Tex

No, it is on his site.
  • #1,386
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:29pm Jun 1, 2012 6:29pm
Thanks,
I'll go take a look because i thought i've seen just about all of them...Can you tell me which strategy it is ? Maybe i'll purchase it later .
  • #1,387
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:04pm Jun 1, 2012 7:04pm
Quoting tex123
Thanks,
I'll go take a look because i thought i've seen just about all of them...Can you tell me which strategy it is ? Maybe i'll purchase it later .
Tex, I will pm you so that we don't let the thread get sidetracked here.
  • #1,388
  • Jun 2, 2012 12:12am Jun 2, 2012 12:12am
Thanks for starting this thread minuteman, really enjoying it. I believe that Steve uses a 1:1 ratio for his trades, and even recommends taking profits sooner for a newer trader. Could someone confirm that who has taken his course, or correct me if I'm wrong?

Jim
  • #1,389
  • Jun 2, 2012 2:36am Jun 2, 2012 2:36am
Quoting bigjim1958
Thanks for starting this thread minuteman, really enjoying it. I believe that Steve uses a 1:1 ratio for his trades, and even recommends taking profits sooner for a newer trader. Could someone confirm that who has taken his course, or correct me if I'm wrong?

Jim
If I remember correctly he suggests to measure the range of the signal
bar and add this range to the high of the signal bar (if going long).

So if signal bar is 18 pips from low to high add 18 pips to the top of
the signal bar.
When price reaches that level for new traders that's where one should
be all out for more advanced traders take 1/2 off.

S
`
  • #1,390
  • Jun 2, 2012 3:02am Jun 2, 2012 3:02am
Quoting bigjim1958
Thanks for starting this thread minuteman, really enjoying it. I believe that Steve uses a 1:1 ratio for his trades, and even recommends taking profits sooner for a newer trader. Could someone confirm that who has taken his course, or correct me if I'm wrong?

Jim
You can be conservative or agressive with your money management... do you need high win rate for smaller profits, or can you accept a lower win rate and hold for bigger wins. I adopt both at different times depending on various market factors.

This month in light of the trend and its strength I have been more agressive.

I will very rarely close at 1/1 anymore, really i'm looking for at least 2/1 on all my trades, but i'm picking my entries only on decent trends and only at the end of retraces to give my trades as much room as possible.

Also remember if you are trading the trend some entries will blast right through the 1/1 mark, so it is inevitable you will have some big winners.
tradewith60
  • #1,391
  • Jun 2, 2012 3:13am Jun 2, 2012 3:13am
AU H1 yesterday morning..

here is an example of trades the system will give you, especially if you wait and select the pairs that are trending...

You can find these all over your charts as far as you want to go back.... markets have and will always move like this...
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tradewith60
  • #1,392
  • Jun 2, 2012 7:00am Jun 2, 2012 7:00am
AJ H1 chart from last week...

We are in a strong trend so great results to be had

7/7 win/loss

33% maximum gain risking 1%
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tradewith60
  • #1,393
  • Jun 2, 2012 7:09am Jun 2, 2012 7:09am
EG H1

just to give a balanced view a less trendy pair

4 wins 1 loss

maximum gain risking 1% 15%

STUDY THESE CHARTS... THE BEST ENTRIES COME AT THE PEAKS OF RETRACES... AVOID THE SIDEWAYS CONSOLIDATION AREAS
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tradewith60
  • #1,394
  • Jun 2, 2012 7:19am Jun 2, 2012 7:19am
Just repeating the same message over and over...

Eu h1 last week...
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tradewith60
  • #1,395
  • Jun 2, 2012 7:23am Jun 2, 2012 7:23am
If you see this sort of sideways price action, draw a box around it and dont trade the instrument until it breaks out and trends... Common sense really
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tradewith60
  • #1,396
  • Jun 2, 2012 7:35am Jun 2, 2012 7:35am
And do not try to trade it 100% mechanically. The edge is in taking only good setups (strong trend and RR>1) near SR levels.
I tested #2 entry rule from 2000 and it has 50% win rate with 1/1 RR ratio on EUDUSD D1
So the main rule is in your head. It's not for nub trader.
  • #1,397
  • Jun 2, 2012 7:53am Jun 2, 2012 7:53am
Quoting Dezil
And do not try to trade it 100% mechanically. The edge is in taking only good setups (strong trend and RR>1) near SR levels.
I tested #2 entry rule from 2000 and it has 50% win rate with 1/1 RR ratio on EUDUSD D1
So the main rule is in your head. It's not for nub trader.
Sure, relying on price action alone is not the best strategy, location is important too...

still 50% with no filters is pretty amazing...
tradewith60
  • #1,398
  • Jun 2, 2012 8:06am Jun 2, 2012 8:06am
Quoting 60minuteman
Sure, relying on price action alone is not the best strategy, location is important too...

still 50% with no filters is pretty amazing...
Please forgive my ignorance but I would think 50% with 1/1 RR is coin flipping.
  • #1,399
  • Jun 2, 2012 8:11am Jun 2, 2012 8:11am
Quoting pippiee
Please forgive my ignorance but I would think 50% with 1/1 RR is coin flipping.
it is if you close everything at exactly 1/1...

but what about the trades that blast through that level?

for example GU for a maximum so far of 15/1?

This is a trend trading strategy, ultimately we are looking to get into trends and as such we should look to hold trades..
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tradewith60
  • #1,400
  • Jun 2, 2012 8:15am Jun 2, 2012 8:15am
Quoting pippiee
Please forgive my ignorance but I would think 50% with 1/1 RR is coin flipping.
another example from the previous week on EU, stormed to 10/1 before even 1 h1 gave a significant close against the trade
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tradewith60
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