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  • #2,881
  • May 31, 2012 3:23am May 31, 2012 3:23am
Quoting kruger
Bee, what is your target for shorts on EU?
Just close it - people wants to go long here!!
My target for shorts is the eventual collapse of the Euro. I've taken enough out now to leave the rest until the fundies play out.

When EU tanked last time it was the revelation of the Greek debt crisis which started it all off.

Then they 'fixed' it and it found some support and went back to healthy levels.

Now people started to realise it's phucked still, but deeper now, and nobody really seems to have a solution.

So all i can see here (fundamentally speaking) are lower lows than the last debt crisis bear move, i.e. below 1.21ish (i'm not looking at charts right now so all a big vague pricewise). And this is just a feeling of course, not tech.

All i know is this pair (and Euro in general) is subject to serious news moves at the moment due to the nature of it's current state. So i'm bearish in the long run and with about 65% of account increase on this one pairs move south, remain so!

But lets see.... market often makes a mug out of me!
  • #2,882
  • May 31, 2012 3:33am May 31, 2012 3:33am
Quoting beebolbod
My target for shorts is the eventual collapse of the Euro. I've taken enough out now to leave the rest until the fundies play out.

When EU tanked last time it was the revelation of the Greek debt crisis which started it all off.

Then they 'fixed' it and it found some support and went back to healthy levels.

Now people started to realise it's phucked still, but deeper now, and nobody really seems to have a solution.

So all i can see here (fundamentally speaking) are lower lows than the last debt crisis bear move, i.e. below 1.21ish (i'm not looking...
Yes, shorting EU this days is just like taking candy from a child. Just waiting for a retrace. From charts we are in big D so we will see some bumpy ride between north and south. Lots of fresh S above and falling channel makes it very bearish. Let;s see if EU break next monthly low.
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  • #2,883
  • May 31, 2012 4:23am May 31, 2012 4:23am
Quoting kruger
Yes, shorting EU this days is just like taking candy from a child. Just waiting for a retrace. From charts we are in big D so we will see some bumpy ride between north and south. Lots of fresh S above and falling channel makes it very bearish. Let;s see if EU break next monthly low.
yeah, that's how i'm going to be playing it anyway. waiting to short on retraces. Seems simplest that way.

And i think around 1.22 ish i might start to think about a big ish bounce? haven't looked that closely yet tbh but monthly looks to show a lot of D from 1.18 up to 1.22 so opportunities all over the place i should think.
  • #2,884
  • May 31, 2012 4:50am May 31, 2012 4:50am
We have nice example of CP in making on EU. Even today run looks bullish, watch out - on the LTF is very CP. Don't know if this is for today shorts or not but will fall through hard.
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  • #2,885
  • May 31, 2012 5:07am May 31, 2012 5:07am
Kruger,

Im watching that compression myself. Looks very tempting. Had a short marked for 1.2427 swap zone from yesterday but hesitated on it as not sure some of the demand below has been fully consumed.

Medium term there is a big demand zone on the daily.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu daily demand.gif Size: 41 KB



Inside this demand zone I have earmarked 3 zones which I will be watching closely. What do you guys think of these?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4hr demand.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #2,886
  • May 31, 2012 5:18am May 31, 2012 5:18am
Quoting Rsherl01

Inside this demand zone I have earmarked 3 zones which I will be watching closely. What do you guys think of these?
Looks good from H4 point of view, but have no LTF data to say something more.

Looks like EU CP is consumed right now!
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  • #2,887
  • May 31, 2012 6:46am May 31, 2012 6:46am
little bull move to that red rectangle before it gets back to 0.9700 ishh

http://screencast.com/t/Q0WMQxoHN0
  • #2,888
  • May 31, 2012 8:14am May 31, 2012 8:14am
Short term buys? (TT entry missed by 1 pip)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 91 KB
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  • #2,889
  • May 31, 2012 8:39am May 31, 2012 8:39am
Hold tight Kruger you may get another opportunity soon enough......
  • #2,890
  • May 31, 2012 9:16am May 31, 2012 9:16am
Quoting Rsherl01
Hold tight Kruger you may get another opportunity soon enough......

Hope you got in Kruger. Im at BE already. Too much of a risk to the downside. Price CP'd on the way down so hopefully we can get to 1.24 at least. That was a big decision at 1.2375 so it could be a nice base.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,891
  • May 31, 2012 10:06am May 31, 2012 10:06am
Out at BE the bears are not negotiating at all. You know what they say if you can't beat em.... Watching for Breakout
  • #2,892
  • May 31, 2012 11:57am May 31, 2012 11:57am
Quoting Rsherl01
Hope you got in Kruger. Im at BE already. Too much of a risk to the downside. Price CP'd on the way down so hopefully we can get to 1.24 at least. That was a big decision at 1.2375 so it could be a nice base.....

Attachment
I was out when it happened, but it was nice move - almost 20 pips ( 14 to FTA) with 3 pips risk
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a.gif Size: 16 KB
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  • #2,893
  • May 31, 2012 1:51pm May 31, 2012 1:51pm
This pair really interest me. I posted some charts here and there on trades i've done in the past and this last trade i posted in J16 yesterday. I entered too early and got stopped out. Realised i'd drawn my upper TL incorrectly and there was room to go up.
Many of the lines are drawn before the fact and from higher TF. Patterns replicate themselves and when you look, price respects the lines so well it's weird. Whether the trade works out or not will be interesting. If it does i'll have to say it'll be the inspiration to look much more closely into channels and geometry (something i've dabbled in up to now). In H4 price is CP all the way up more or less so...... come on lines, do your thing! (i'll get stopped out now )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchf h4.gif Size: 33 KB


EDIT:- the dotted lines on the way down are something to watch... be lovely for it to follow them in some way. I dont have OCD honest.
  • #2,894
  • May 31, 2012 3:00pm May 31, 2012 3:00pm
Quoting beebolbod
This pair really interest me. I posted some charts here and there on trades i've done in the past and this last trade i posted in J16 yesterday. I entered too early and got stopped out. Realised i'd drawn my upper TL incorrectly and there was room to go up.
Many of the lines are drawn before the fact and from higher TF. Patterns replicate themselves and when you look, price respects the lines so well it's weird. Whether the trade works out or not will be interesting. If it does i'll have to say it'll be the inspiration to look much more closely...
I am not a big fan of naked trend lines and channels trading but with s/d zones they can be very useful. As always - more confluence you have than trade have greater chance of success.

Chart: it can be RBD, if S above holds -
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a.gif Size: 18 KB
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  • #2,895
  • May 31, 2012 3:32pm May 31, 2012 3:32pm
Quoting kruger
I am not a big fan of naked trend lines and channels trading but with s/d zones they can be very useful. As always - more confluence you have than trade have greater chance of success.

Chart: it can be RBD, if S above holds -
yeah that green line is a weekly lowest close of support. I was hoping price would get a bit lower tbh... we'll see. I'm not keen on these without S/D either really. I'm wanting the lower green line to get tested as support as its prev resistance. The pink zone is a flip zone, again closing above may see it become D.
All speculation of course
  • #2,896
  • Jun 1, 2012 2:14am Jun 1, 2012 2:14am
possible areas of interest in AU, to get the convo going.
also posted in AG/Setups.
c&c welcome.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,897
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:59am Jun 1, 2012 4:59am
Dollar Index at Daily and Weekly Supply. EUR/USD GBP/USD and AUD/USD all at Daily/Weekly Demand. Whats the chances that the NFP print will weaken the dollar??

Very high i'd say.....

1 way or the other it is going to be eventful...
  • #2,898
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:51am Jun 1, 2012 7:51am
Quoting Rsherl01
Dollar Index at Daily and Weekly Supply. EUR/USD GBP/USD and AUD/USD all at Daily/Weekly Demand. Whats the chances that the NFP print will weaken the dollar??

Very high i'd say.....

1 way or the other it is going to be eventful...
Let's rename NFP to WTF (What the ?uck)
  • #2,899
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:59am Jun 1, 2012 7:59am
Quoting hometrading
Let's rename NFP to WTF (What the ?uck)
What's the fuss about anyway? half another later (and many margin calls) and we are close to where we started
  • #2,900
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:13am Jun 1, 2012 8:13am
Quoting hometrading
What's the fuss about anyway? half another later (and many margin calls) and we are close to where we started
it's great though. just gave me 100 or so pips.
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