It's Really All About Consistency...

Heh, actually, technicals are my entire foundation...and all I traded for the first part of my full time trading career.

but, I found sometimes they lost, and I wanted to know why. In other forms of analysis I often found the answer (or at least strong supporting evidence of such)

as I said in the last post, I'll be looking to move into a longer term approach in the future... but I want at least 1-2 years of rock solid, jaw dropping results in my day trading. Not sure if i'll get that... but, that's the goal between now and then.

And thanks...the scalp is working ok... at least it can't lose, so one can't complain....

although it looks about to pull back and stop out.

Oh well... I guess on to the next trade!

BTW... good work on your trade journal. I checked it out...looks good. Will be following closely. Actually working with a family member to show them how to trade trendline breaks on the monthly and weekly charts... and use the daily charts to enter in the direction of a new trend on a re-test of a trendline... so far, they are very pleased with the results the last couple months

X

I agree...particularly for the aussie! the COT reading on the GBP still bothers me, as does it's close economic link to the euro zone.... but the aussie is more insulated from the euro zone from what I know... and if one combines that with some recent reasons for increased optimism, and the current pretty significant technical reasons for support...

I think unless risk markets just tank again today... the AUD is very likley to be near it's lows for the week.

X

I wasn't referring to weeks low, but monthly lows.

The AUD and GBP are both at 79% fib retracements and while I don't trade monthly charts, the weekly chart fibs are the same... I'm pretty sure the AUD is not likely to go below 9620, however I could be wrong.

If it does close below 9600 then 9300 is very likely.

Ya, I agree in general to what your seeing.

I ended up closing my aud/usd trade out a little early, as I saw some correlated risk markets start to drop...oh well. got about 30 pips on the final exit.

now i'm short E/U for a pretty small risk amount... about half a percent or so.... not my ideal spot for a short... 2460 is really what i'm looking for. but, i'll start greatly reducing risk at about 15 pips of profit (if i can get it)... so, i only need a little bit to make this a very solid R:R ratio....

also, seems theres a very large option position around the 2350 price... with massive stops under it. I'm willing to bet that all this shorting that has happed this last day or so will need to take profits, and those stops will likley act as a very good "no slippage zone" for profit taking, and will likely act as a draw downward on price until they are hit.

From there...not sure... but I'd rather have the large block of orders to act as a magnet below me, than above me

X

Well, got short E/U around 2405, kinda silly sized risk (I think not even half a percent =/)

was going to take around 3/4 risk in total at 2418...and wouldn't you know it, we missed it by a hair.

at any rate, I took about 40ish% off at around 2390...got about 13-14 pips profit...and moved stops down to 2410... so a stop out will be a 5 pip loss on 60% of the trade... but I made about 14 pips on the other 40%...so, if i'm stopped out, i'll end up with a net profit on the position as a whole.

Now, i'm targeting the 2360 level... and I can't lose on this trade.

Always a good position to be in. We'll see how it goes.

X

well...lets see how this goes.... just trying it out on the eur/usd short I took...

http://www.forexfactory.com/forextra...trade951621133

Ok...looks like it might work. This was the entry and exit for the eur/usd short.... at least for the first portion.

the rest of it was exited for a small loss at 2410, of approx 5 pips.

I find the whole "secret" to trading is to pick good levels with a high probability of a turn... and then as price comes to a point where it is possible to reverse against you... to make sure you have dramatically reduced risk or eliminated it altogether.

It's a shame this week has not provided the same opportunities I felt existed last week... well, it actually did to a degree. Sunday/monday session I had wired... but due to a lack of prep i didn't capitalize properly, and yesterday was some picture perfect short setups.... but i wasn't trading yesterday, lol.

Guess it's really actually my bad, not the markets. Oh well. still looking for a long aud, or POSSIBLY a long eur if we can push into 2350... but, that'll require a lot of good looking risk markets on other fronts, and a lower yield spread in EU bond rates, and preferrably a higher bond yield on USD bonds...

so, in other words, it'll have to all line up just right. Of course, another euro short from about 2450 is something i'm really looking forward to taking...

But, AUD long from the lows i'm really looking for reasons not to get in, much more than reasons to get it.

X

just in case someone wants to see the entry and final profit point.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...trade951592258

Well, took another small short on E/U, after I saw a very nice 5 min reversal candle off a fib level, but once I saw a high volume candle in the euro futures on a 1 min chart.... I closed it out near 2420ish.

losst about 1/5th of a percent on that... and now it's time to sit on my hands until we reach 2450ish +, or until aud/usd hits 9700 or lower.

Audio alerts in place... time for me to get away from the computer, and just relax for a couple hours (or until an alert sounds!)

X

well, I managed to reduce 40% of the daily profits by taking an impulsive short on eur/usd.

For tomorrow, I will create a new element to my trading plan...one that will essentially eliminate me entering a trade twice at the same level in the same direction in the same market during a particular session.

Also, I will make myself take a mandatory 1 hr break from the charts if I am waiting for levels that are further away to hit...and I have alerts on.

Just walking away would have prevented the last impuslive trade.

Next week, my goal is to bring this darn bad f'ing habit down to half of what it's been this week...so, at max 1 trade next week that is purely impulsive...better than the 3 this week it seems (or was it 4? geez.)

no matter... this is about finding and plugging leaks for me... and obvoiusly taking silly trades off of levels that have proven less than ideal is a leak to plug.

X

Well, looks like I have my last trade on, unless we retest the daily lows in the aud/usd....

At any rate, i'm up about 0.70% today... and it felt like a real hack day. I just didn't have much conviction in moves from the levels we hit... so there was some second guessing, premature closing, etc.

Almost as a rule I tend to reduce risk on positions... so I have no problem with closing some (or even all) trades out once I get 20+ pips, and moving stops to a point where the origional position will yield a net profit...

but, today I was too aggressive with it. even though my trade ideas were pretty much dead on... it jsut never got to the better levels, and with me trailing last weeks results of 9% by a considerable amount, combined with a few other factors, I just was having a hard time holding my trades with great conviction.

At any rate, I'd rather error on the side of caution than not,and during my trade review tomorrow I will probably find a better insight into my overly cautious trading today.

At any rate, up about 0.70% for the day is nothing to sneeze at, and I look forward to tomorrow, NFP day.

X

Wow... today was the day I eventually lost all structure in my trading, and what should have been an easy 2% became a fighting 0.5%

First off, the most obvious mistake was:
1. Overtrading. Yep. I have certain limitations to how many trades and of what types of setups I can take during what hours....etc. I basically over did this by one trade in each catagory.

2. Mentally spread too thin. I have limited the amount of markets I can trade of particular setups for a reason. It was 3, now it's 4... but regardless, I found myself mentally going over other markets with opportunities I missed, or didn't capitalize on, or whatever. And, Also what other markets may present better opportunities for the time being. This is unacceptable, and although violates no specific rule in my plan, is simply counter productive.

3. Trading scared. For some reason, this week I have experienced more pressure than the previous week. Today, it really expressed itself by my second guessing very good trades. Either i shouldn't have been in them, or followed a specific preset plan, or I should have not second guessed them. I often am fanatical about reducing risk. This isn't the problem... it's just arbitrarily getting out early that's the problem.

4. too much variation when it comes to setting my risk parameters. Again, not a hard rule that was violated, but it will be one going into this coming week.

5. Again, not a rule violation, but something I need to develop and integrate into a habitual system. I need to organize my pre-trading prep to a larger extent. I have right now everything that I consider... but I don't have any specific schedule or time slots or such to make them happen by, or how to organize them on a day to day basis.
SO, sometimes some important facts get overlooked, or others are no longer relevant. This needs to change as well.

The one good thing I did do was reduce my risk on my positions, and my analysis was pretty darn good.

But, without a well structured, highly controlled plan to take advantage of such analysis... it's all worthless.

So, as per my trading plan... if I break rules like I did today, I am not able to trade for the rest of the week. I would have liked a shot at making another percent or two on Friday, but if I'm going to develop the level of consistency that I am looking for... it is imperative I follow every rule and heed all consequences regarding failures to do so.

For that, I'm now done trading for the week.

Since taking this next step to gain consistency as habit, I'm up about 11.5% ROI in 9 trading days, and I will look to create a tighter, more informed method to obtain the level of structure I need to have success on a daily or weekly basis.

Will be back next week, and intend to make it not only a profitable week, but a profitable week that anchors into my daily routine a more effective level of structure than I have ever had before.

X

Hey all... to anyone who is following this, but may not be convinced how well sentiment analysis can work out... here is my post from my write up from about 3 hours before this recent london session (it would be thursday morning london session, in london time)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post5714916

feel free to skip down to the summary and the conclusion at the end.

then take a look at some currencies today... see how they played out.

Not bad eh? This was 100% a result of keeping up to date with the news, rumors, headlines, world developments, etc.

just like reading price action, it takes screen time to get good. it takes lots of reading and lots of news to start to see what the market cares about...and don't expect to always have an answer for every currency market.

Just know that 2-4 currencies each day will provide compelling reason for the market to want to buy or sell them... and just line this bias up with techincal levels going in the same direction, and it's hard to not make money.

X

This is some of the best trading thought I've seen on the forums. I need to get myself to the point that you are at.

One thought - why not work at writing these ideas and methods in a book form. Something to do while waiting for trades. You have a way of putting things that make it easy to comprehend, and there are very few books on this subject, and even fewer that are understandable. (But then maybe your results will become so great that you won't want others to know how you got there )

Anyhow, thanks again for your efforts.

Peter

Wow... well, thanks for the vote of confidence Peter! I almost never even registered here or posted anything (though I've come here for years), and I seriously debated starting such a thread, and now.... a book, eh?

I won't say the thought has never crossed my mind... but, I kinda figure years out, maybe, if i was bored.

I also wonder about the implications of my trading. I know paul tudor jones did a mini biography of sorts on pbs back in 87...and since then has tried to buy every copy in existance, as well as the rights to air it, or so the rumor goes anyway. If the rumor is true, it is likely he feels he gave away too much in the video. I wonder if i'll feel the same....

But right now, i'm focused on this thread improving my consistency. It's not a lack of ability, or lack of knowledge that has slowed my results from what I can get...it's something inside (obviously, as it always is)... and I need to work that out FULLY, first, before I ever would consider publishing a book of sorts.

Besides.. I think the only buyers would be like... you. Maybe 1 or 2 who have "vouched".. my mom. Yea.... lol.

Lots of folks want easy methods...and some find them and have success. I never did... and this is lots of work. I honestly feel most wouldn't want to do everything I do anyway to trade. Maybe if a whole lotta folks all were asking for something like that.... I would at least put it on my to-do list...but for now, I am here primarily for me.

This help me... when I have to put my arguments and rebuttals and thoughts and feelings into a public format, it forces me to articulate things that occur on a subconcious level.... and therefore, gives me a better understanding of what i'm really doing, so I can keep what works, and just know better what to get rid of.

Anyway... I still have a long way to go... if I can keep that trade explorer "sample" account i've set up in the green every single month between now and 2013, with never more than a 20% DD, and a solid profit.... maybe then i can think in another direction.. at least seriously anyway. That's my only goal right now.

X

P.S. glad you like this though... is very nice to hear comments, as I get more clarity though such communication, so if you or anyone else has something to comment, ask, argue, whatever, I look forward to it.

Forextraderx,

I have to compliment you on your thread. It is well put together and you definitely put your thoughts on paper well.

I too am a full time trader. I have been trading for 7 years. I wanted to pass along somethings that I found through my journey. I also at one point wanted to try and figure out why I had losing trades. What I found was interesting (at least to me). I found I had losing trades for two reasons, the 1st was: I was not patient enough for my setup to develop and tried to get in before it was the right time. That caused me to have larger stops and a lot of the time the setup never developed. 2nd was: If a trade started to go against me I would close it before the stop because I did not want to take the full loss. What I realized from this was, one, I had to be patient and wait until it was the right time. This took a while to get down. Two, was that I had to commit myself that if I risked X amount on a trade that I had to be willing to lose that amount and let the trade progress to its full potential.

Now I do not pay attention to news or any fundamental analysis, so I can't comment on that side. I only trade one simple pattern or structure (what ever you want to call it) on the 1 hour time frame. So my time spent on analysis is relatively small. My belief is the classic argument made by technical traders, that every thing you need to know is in the chart. I believe that if you find areas that you can define your risk to what you are comfortable with and trade that over and over and over, that trading becomes very simple. I know that you mentioned that you started out trading techs, but just wanted to put this out there that sometimes over analysis cause issues or problems or what ever you want to call it.

My mentor when I first was learning gave me a drill to do that I believe is one of the best things to do. He told me that placing a trade is the smallest part of trading. He told me to find places where I could define my risk and place a trade. He wanted me to define my risk and place the trade, then purely manage the trade. For the drill he only wanted me to place two trades a day and do that for two weeks. Once I was profitable at the end of the two weeks he told me that I could go live after 2 months being profitable every two weeks during the 2 months. That was the best exercise that I have ever done or heard of. You might give that a try and leave the other analysis alone for a while and see what you come up with.

I wish you the best of luck in your journey and hope that something here was of value to you.

Golferguy99

Thanks Golfer, for the words and the contributions.

I love your suggestion about the "drill" you did. Only thing is, right now I have in my trading plan 3 "core" setup types, and two of which I can only take a total of 6 entries. 3 max that are more "as the develop" setups...and up to 3 max in any market that is preplanned, limit orders set before the markets start moving type stuff.

The 3rd basic setup type is based off of longer term stuff, is quite mechanical, and may only set up 2-8 times a week. It's also the setup that has the highest success rate, and I have can only take 3 of these a day (but 3 setups in one day with this never happens)

So, basically, I have 3 entries I can take... and a max of 6 other possible trading opportunities that probably won't trigger (maybe 1 or 2 a day), but if they do... i have everything pre-planned and written out for them.

I know, it's more complex. and I may eventually opt for a much more streamlined version as you suggest... but, there are other reasons...

I have tried to develop my latest trading plan revision to specifically focus on some of my underlying psychological strengths and weaknesses...to build a plan that allows my strengths to best express themselves, while having hard rules to keep me level headed at all times by avoiding my weaknesses.

my best setup is one that doesn't set up every day, and SOMETIMES, may not even set up more than once in a week. I feel a bit threatened by the lack of ability I have to "make money every day" The thought of having maybe a week go by with 1 trade, and it losing..is psychologically very painful for me. It's silly, I know... but it such concern gets in the way of my ability to conduct a good analysis.

Without going too much further, the "3 live intraday entries" rule gives me an outlet for this... a way to feel "secure" that I will have at least ONE opportunity today, and it also keeps me engaged with whats going on.

So, I play to my strengths, but avoid my weaknesses. Thats the goal anyway...time will tell if this will work or not. maybe I will end up trying your suggestion, but this is the first time i've taken such a conceptual, personal approach, and I'm gonna see it "fits" over the next few weeks.

Sigh. and your totally right about both points regarding your losing trading analysis. not really "accepting risk", but just placing a stop....ya, i've known that for so long but have slid back recently. It's a great reminder...and the patience thing... I actually tend to do OK with this...better than the other. But I will go back and review what i've written here over the next few weeks...and compare my numbers to my results.

It may turn out that I'm more impatient and more risk averse that I currently think...maybe too much so for consistent results. At the point that I have enough data to see such a pattern...i'll change my tactics.

I'll look to incorporate the concept of really accepting the risk this week. I should get it down fast...i've been here more than once before .

Again, thanks for the post. Really appreciated. Feel free to post any other insights you may have.

X

Well, tomorrow starts week 3 of this "challenge", and as of right now, I don't feel very prepared for it. I've done the basics of my tech analysis, and have narrowed down my focus to some of the markets I feel will provde the best opportunities. A lot of day trading potential on risk/US pairs I see... as they retrace back down the "wick" that is visible on a daily chart. Lots of nice little longs...some possibly not so little.

I will be watching for clues about the fed's response to this jobs report. It may be the news event of the week, particularly if anything from anyone connected to the fed makes any sort of gesture of a QE3 being off the table.

I, like everyone else, is likely watching europe.... counting down the hours to when greece and spain join atlantis and the titanic.... thought how this will affect the markets, i'm not yet sure exactly.

If everything has reason to drop, and the few safe haven currencies (the USD and JPY) are experiencing seroius CB intervention or risk of intervention via QE.... I hate to say it, but I think "short PaperMoney/Gold" will be the best trade.

Other than a likely bounce in risk markets against the DX and the JPY, I have very little idea of what I want at this point.

A U/CAD short of some sort is probably the trade I'm most optimistic about... somewhere around 1.0420 or higher.

right now VERY uncertain about hte dollar and the yen... I will very likely just avoid this pair all together, and be cautious of JPY trades in general.

I will be spending most of the asian session tomorrow going over some aspect of trading psychology. My trade review pretty much results in one obvious conclusion: be better prepared mentally for the day, and make sure this is facilitated properly via written plans for all trade opportunities regarding what would invalidate them, and how they should be managed.

I also want to finish putting a more solid "structure" into my senti/fundi preparation, and simplify the written aspects of my technical analysis. I find one just without structure, and the other cumbersome.

This will work best if I can feel the work I put in is not in any way busy work, but every bit essential to my possible success on any given day.

Simplify where I can, add structure where needed, learn from my mistakes, and absolutely trade only if I have a very firm grasp on what I believe is going on, and have the best levels chosen with the best criteria from which to decide on a trade or not.

Will spend more time pre-london working on all of this.

X

Very much my feeling as well. Great thread, the best to come along in some time and I am a loyal follower. My V after the first 10 posts.

The first trade of the week just triggered, long at 0.9660 on the aud/usd.

I made a post about this sometime hours ago during the early morning. It's here if anyone cares to see it:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post5723481

And... at this moment, the trade is pulled back most of th eway, and is up about 3-4 pips.

Not my favorite thing to see...but the day is still early, and I feel ppretty good about my stop.

At any rate, it's a good trade so far. Maybe I should have continued a very conservative approach to risk management on this, and taken something off at 20ish to reduce risk to 0 on the trade.

No matter... it's just about 1% risk, and this week I have decided to push forward in my trading more like the first week, with 1-2% risk amounts, and not being SO cautious in reducing my risk on a position.

We'll see how it goes... I'm also particularly interested in a usd/cad short at some point... but I don't care to go into where exactly now, because I'm not SURE where, now. something between 1.0400 - 1.0500 is all I know for absolute certainty.

Anyway, trade is on.... I'm going to get some more much needed rest, and then finish my analysis later in a few hours.

Hope I have a profit on the aud/usd by then...it's always nice

X

Well... this isn't working out as I had expected, obviously.

I've looked at everything from a technical perspective, and so far, I still have no regrets with the aud/usd long. However, there was some increased fear in the marketplace due to a report out of china that shows production slowing even more.

The report I believe came out earlier than I took my trade, so I need to make sure to be filled in on ALL the recent events, and take them into consideration. In this case, even having a grasp on things 8-10 hours earlier may not be relevant enough if new events develop that are more strongly tied to a countries currency and economy (as china is to the AUD)

But, I don't feel this was a mistake, it was just a necessary loss in order for me to gain a better understanding of the impact of greed, fear, catalysts for change, and inertia in the marketplace.

This trade, while it will very probably lose, I feel justified in taking, as well as feel it provided a lesson of value to some degree. And, most importantly, I followed my hard rules here and feel fully capable of regrouping for what may develop as the day continues.

The USD/CAD short, on the other hand, I feel may have been entered into a bit prematurely. The pro's are it is at some significant technical levels as seen on a daily chart, and it did have a nice selloff around 0440, but other than that, the trend is still quite strong, it didn't have the daily reversaal pattern that the euro and gbp tended to have, and at very least, I should have placed an order at the highs of friday, rather than at a lesser technical level.

I'm also debating the wisedom of the trade in part because of the correlation with AUD... In fact, I closed out about half the position at a 15 pip loss... as I was just not comfortable with the full risk given that price action seemed to "bulldoze" past my entry level with barely a blink.

I can't put my finger on it just yet...but i feel good about the AUD trade, but not so much at all about the CAD trade.

I will try to address the reason I feel this way as the trades close. Besides, the most important part here for me is in spite of 2 likely losses... I feel in no way scattered, frazzled, or confused. I simply feel I missed some information that I will be better equipped to find and use in the future.

In other words... it's a very healthy way to look at a loss, and keeps me fully capable of taking another trade or 2 as the day progresses.

X