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FX Analysis: The IPA Trade Methodology

  • #121
  • May 21, 2012 8:10am May 21, 2012 8:10am
Does AAPL serve as a lead indicator for a rally still or does Facebook below the offer price of $38 overshadow it?

I would not dismiss AAPL so quickly. Currently prices are sitting on a pretty sweet time and price support zone.

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded....21.12aapl.png
  • #122
  • May 21, 2012 3:19pm May 21, 2012 3:19pm
Quoting Dave Floyd
Does AAPL serve as a lead indicator for a rally still or does Facebook below the offer price of $38 overshadow it?

I would not dismiss AAPL so quickly. Currently prices are sitting on a pretty sweet time and price support zone.

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded....21.12aapl.png
Not too shabby - S&P's and AAPL caught a bid today. However, FX pairs, i.e. risk related ones did lag the move in stocks. Certainly worth noting as FX typically leads equities, thus the S&P rally could be limited. Just something to consider. if you are positioned on the long side.
  • #123
  • May 21, 2012 6:17pm May 21, 2012 6:17pm
Stocks are undergoing the most severe correction since the end of 2011. Will the sell off in equities continue, or is today's bounce sustainable? If so, how can we capitalize using the currency markets?

During Friday May 19th's CNBC Money in Motion, Todd applied Aspen Trading's tried and true 3-step trading process called the I.P.A Pyramid to capitalize on the market movement.

http://www.aspentrading.com/freeresearch/?id=3282
  • #124
  • May 23, 2012 2:52pm May 23, 2012 2:52pm
Hey Traders - quick video overview of Elliott Wave analysis by Aspen's own Todd Gordon...

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000090416&play=1
  • #125
  • May 23, 2012 7:15pm May 23, 2012 7:15pm
Have the S&P's put in a low as of today's close - it certainly was a nice rally off the lows. FX markets say.....no!

http://www.aspentrading.com/freeresearch/?id=3313
  • #126
  • May 25, 2012 8:12am May 25, 2012 8:12am
The S&P futures are trying "go it alone" without confirmation from FX --> good luck with that. We have seen this time and time again, and my bet is 3/4's of the time FX wins out. -TG-

S&P 500 Bulls Getting Ahead of Themselves?
  • #127
  • May 29, 2012 9:01am May 29, 2012 9:01am
Just a little heads up that Todd will be on CNBC's Fast Money today at 12:30 EST. Here is a video clip from his appearance last Friday on Money in Motion:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000092383&play=1
  • #128
  • May 30, 2012 7:59am May 30, 2012 7:59am
This is why we think the S&P sell-off is not complete. Remember, FX leads equities - not vice versa.

From our research service:

The yen crosses continue to push lower, despite an equity market divergence that has yet to play downside catch up. I am hard-pressed to believe equities will not eventually close that gap, but they are trying their hardest to hang in..

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded....12Overlay.png
  • #129
  • May 30, 2012 8:54am May 30, 2012 8:54am
Join us today for an informational webinar titled:

What's Working in FX This Week!

There is no cost - to register - simply click on the link below. Webinar starts at 4 PM EST - 9 PM London

https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/711916934
  • #130
  • May 31, 2012 6:13pm May 31, 2012 6:13pm
Traders - markets are likely to be a bit quiet as they await the NFP results on Friday. Today's failure of the S&P's to break above 1320 despite the solid bounce off the day lows still suggests the bulls are in scarce supply.

We are not going to try to fight the bearish trend, but do realize a very poor NFP report could unleash further hopes of the central bank easing and usher in one heck of a 'risk on' rally. As the video below highlights, having a plan is always key to avoid being 'surprised' by the markets.

http://www.screencast.com/t/8ij1zJPx
  • #131
  • May 31, 2012 6:23pm May 31, 2012 6:23pm
Quoting Dave Floyd
Traders - markets are likely to be a bit quiet as they await the NFP results on Friday. Today's failure of the S&P's to break above 1320 despite the solid bounce off the day lows still suggests the bulls are in scarce supply.

We are not going to try to fight the bearish trend, but do realize a very poor NFP report could unleash further hopes of the central bank easing and usher in one heck of a 'risk on' rally. As the video below highlights, having a plan is always key to avoid being 'surprised' by the markets.

http://www.screencast.com/t/8ij1zJPx...
correct link, sorry about that - http://www.aspentrading.com/maysale.aspx
  • #132
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:25am Jun 1, 2012 8:25am
Way too much bearish chatter today and for the first time in weeks FX is not trading lower in tandem with equities. Time to get long? Perhaps. The overlay chart below is pretty key and offers key insights.

Plus, with the biz channels sounding like Chicken Little this AM (a major contrarian signal in my opinion) short positions could be in danger.

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded....12Overlay.png
  • #133
  • Jun 1, 2012 12:18pm Jun 1, 2012 12:18pm
Traders, building on the above posting (the inter-market overlay) the video below offers a simple step-by-step process that helps in isolating key potential turning points in the S&P's (or any market for that matter). With the FX markets not confirming the move lower in equities today - this video is key.

http://www.screencast.com/t/2TfXpC7poYyV
  • #134
  • Jun 4, 2012 7:04pm Jun 4, 2012 7:04pm
Traders, here is what FX markets are telling us now...(video update)

http://www.aspentrading.com/freeresearch/?id=3458
  • #135
  • Jun 6, 2012 6:12pm Jun 6, 2012 6:12pm
Nightly Video Update:

http://www.screencast.com/t/qDj0crdTeYk
  • #136
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:57pm Jun 7, 2012 6:57pm
Nightly Video Update

http://www.screencast.com/t/mVXg4Vr4Z
  • #137
  • Jun 11, 2012 10:51am Jun 11, 2012 10:51am
Morning Video Update:

http://www.screencast.com/t/TZ1aUa5Ka
  • #138
  • Jun 12, 2012 12:06am Jun 12, 2012 12:06am
Some really well thought out comments I read - author unknown:

Shorts afraid to make bets - fearing CB manipulation destroying their capital. Longs afraid to sell - fearing "tracking error" threat to careers for fear of CB manipulation. Nobody able to exercise judgement or basic common sense/analysis for fear of CB manipulation. HOWEVER, it is interesting to note steady deterioration of the demand/supply equations over the past few months. Viewing LOWRYs work, for example, "supply" has been on a steady up trend hitting new highs this week. "Demand" or "buying power" started to drop rapidly a year ago (July 2011) and "supply" or "selling pressure" began to rise sharply at the same time. The selling pressure curve rose above the buying power curve last August AND HAS REMAINED IN THAT CONFIGURATION EVER SINCE. During the first quarter market rally, the curves converged slightly but, in effect, the rally lacked any real "demand" and instead. seemed to rise on a low volume, algo-driven benchmark-chasing run marked primarily by lack of significant selling presssure. At the end of March, buying power began to fall again while selling pressure started to rise. In May, those trends accelerated and despite this week's "Best-Rally-of-2012" hype (presented by bullish financial "journalists"), the curves barely wiggled. I read this as simply a "Weekend-fear-of-"policy"-announcements", short covering rally from an "oversold" condition.

All this day to day jerking around by the "headline jockeys" is driving the players nuts. Having to base legitimate investment strategy on second guessing idiots with their weekend press releases is no way to run a financial system.

Finally, on my continuing skepticism about the next round of "QE - whatever", it seems like there is a universal belief that QE is coming, that it will save the day (hence, fear of shorting or long selling), and that maybe it won't work as well as the other versions. Somehow, I can't shake the notion that MAYBE (not willing to bet on this, but...) there won't be an imminent QE and that if there is, it will be puny, well below market "hopes" and "hoopla" and that it will get sold heavily. I still think this is an extreme contrary opinion, but that's all I've got.
  • #139
  • Jun 12, 2012 11:21am Jun 12, 2012 11:21am
Think this pretty much sums up what we need to do with EUR/USD once this modest correction higher in the S&P's runs the course...

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded....12imaOVER.png
  • #140
  • Jun 12, 2012 3:34pm Jun 12, 2012 3:34pm
CNBC Fast Money Appearance:

Todd discusses the S&P's and EUR/USD.....http://www.aspentrading.com/cnbc.aspx
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