Have you ever wondered whether you can make enough in the forex market to quit or replace a day job? Did you stop to figure out how much money you would put down, and if you were to do this then by approximately when you would need to have doubled that stake?
I can tell you that the timescale is almost glacial.
There are a few on the Factory who appear to do well. There are more who loud their success, but often the real data is lacking or maybe the negative aspects are quietly overlooked whilst the impressive positive achievements are allowed to dazzle. Sure there are some big winners, checkout the broker pages where these achievers are listed - and they deserve their accolades. Now check out how often they are listed, I have yet to see anybody appear twice in the same year.
At the opening of this journal I have taken the bold move. With two accounts loaded with roughly equal amounts one will run low-leverage trades intended to last weeks, the other will take higher-leverage positions of shorter duration. The long time-frame account will keep me focused on real market behaviour so that my higher-leveraged trades, where I will be aiming for the yield, will be protected from impetuous behaviour. That is the plan at least.
I need to average 2% weekly, and compound that over nearly a year. Using 10:1 trade leverage that amounts to just over 31-pips per week. If I can average 3% then I get to afford time off from trading, or a slightly shortened glacial time frame. In 2 years my reserves will be depleted but I will be able to draw a reduced salary at that point.
Surely 31-pips a week is a tiny target?
Watch this space.
edit #1: 6 Dec 2013 Precis of what happened so far.....
The original plan failed. I put myself under way too much pressure and eventually became afraid of losing. Here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6331133#post6331133) I changed my trading plan and switched to longer term, low-leverage, bigger pip-target trades with less money in the account. My beer-fund. The result has been a consistent gradual improvement in my second trading account. Along the way I learned to plan my trade entries better. Some times I had some seriously underwater positions to the tune of a few hundred pips, but this allowed me to watch objectively, kind-of, and see whether I could convince myself that the trades were going to work. Most did work, a couple I swallowed a significant loss but nothing too account damaging. After a year and as a result I am opening a new account with more funding to trade my recent approach on a larger basis back with an ECN, or as near as I can find. This second episode, a complete year trading a smaller account, has seen an account growth of 67%; a promising result.
supplemental: Jan 2014. Phase-3 begins here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7195901#post7195901) with two accounts. One smaller Beer fund with lesser funding, and another account with 2600 ante-. I am working on an appropriate name for this account....
edit #2: October 2015
Three years down the road I arrived here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8545382#post8545382), some success along the way and some failure. My understanding has moved up a level but my execution has been poor due to lack of self-discipline. However, my naivety has gone and I notice a change in my mentality, that is a positive thing.
As I look back I can see that I would have benefited from some training. Not the kind of training which deals with looking at a chart particularly, but the kind of training which gives insight into what is driving the market and who are the players.
Happily my stocks portfolio is up 140% over this same time frame, on an un-leveraged account. This situation is characteristic of the stock market, the recovery after the disaster of 2008/9, and something which I have been good at exploiting in the past (1998 and 2003/4). However the opportunity window is closing again on the stock market, a situation which is normal, and soon there will be another crash ... the when is the difficult part.
I can tell you that the timescale is almost glacial.
There are a few on the Factory who appear to do well. There are more who loud their success, but often the real data is lacking or maybe the negative aspects are quietly overlooked whilst the impressive positive achievements are allowed to dazzle. Sure there are some big winners, checkout the broker pages where these achievers are listed - and they deserve their accolades. Now check out how often they are listed, I have yet to see anybody appear twice in the same year.
At the opening of this journal I have taken the bold move. With two accounts loaded with roughly equal amounts one will run low-leverage trades intended to last weeks, the other will take higher-leverage positions of shorter duration. The long time-frame account will keep me focused on real market behaviour so that my higher-leveraged trades, where I will be aiming for the yield, will be protected from impetuous behaviour. That is the plan at least.
I need to average 2% weekly, and compound that over nearly a year. Using 10:1 trade leverage that amounts to just over 31-pips per week. If I can average 3% then I get to afford time off from trading, or a slightly shortened glacial time frame. In 2 years my reserves will be depleted but I will be able to draw a reduced salary at that point.
Surely 31-pips a week is a tiny target?
Watch this space.
edit #1: 6 Dec 2013 Precis of what happened so far.....
The original plan failed. I put myself under way too much pressure and eventually became afraid of losing. Here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6331133#post6331133) I changed my trading plan and switched to longer term, low-leverage, bigger pip-target trades with less money in the account. My beer-fund. The result has been a consistent gradual improvement in my second trading account. Along the way I learned to plan my trade entries better. Some times I had some seriously underwater positions to the tune of a few hundred pips, but this allowed me to watch objectively, kind-of, and see whether I could convince myself that the trades were going to work. Most did work, a couple I swallowed a significant loss but nothing too account damaging. After a year and as a result I am opening a new account with more funding to trade my recent approach on a larger basis back with an ECN, or as near as I can find. This second episode, a complete year trading a smaller account, has seen an account growth of 67%; a promising result.
supplemental: Jan 2014. Phase-3 begins here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7195901#post7195901) with two accounts. One smaller Beer fund with lesser funding, and another account with 2600 ante-. I am working on an appropriate name for this account....
edit #2: October 2015
Three years down the road I arrived here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8545382#post8545382), some success along the way and some failure. My understanding has moved up a level but my execution has been poor due to lack of self-discipline. However, my naivety has gone and I notice a change in my mentality, that is a positive thing.
As I look back I can see that I would have benefited from some training. Not the kind of training which deals with looking at a chart particularly, but the kind of training which gives insight into what is driving the market and who are the players.
Happily my stocks portfolio is up 140% over this same time frame, on an un-leveraged account. This situation is characteristic of the stock market, the recovery after the disaster of 2008/9, and something which I have been good at exploiting in the past (1998 and 2003/4). However the opportunity window is closing again on the stock market, a situation which is normal, and soon there will be another crash ... the when is the difficult part.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!