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Swing trading with heiken ashi and stochs

  • #1,341
  • May 23, 2012 10:25am May 23, 2012 10:25am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Lol, thanks. It's easy to forget in forums that you don't know who's on the other end so you don't always pay the proper respect. I think I treat everyone with respect but it changes your perspective once you know a bit more about someone. I will have a beer for you on my birthday!
Hi Hugh, Ozefex et al,

Gads!! I am surrounded by youngsters. I will be 71 at my next BD in Oct. Took up FX 6 mos ago to hopefully help ward off Alzheimers. So far so good. Oz I have to tell you that I am busier in retirement than before but enjoying life more.

I wonder how many more old guys are on this thread?
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #1,342
  • May 23, 2012 10:34am May 23, 2012 10:34am
Hey Albina-66 yrs young here! poacher
Enter Signature
  • #1,343
  • May 23, 2012 10:50am May 23, 2012 10:50am
I'm willing to bet older traders are better than young traders anyway. More patience and less testosterone (no offense! )
  • #1,344
  • May 23, 2012 10:54am May 23, 2012 10:54am
Hugh,

Not discounted daily and 1H so I will be trying them - it may just be better for me to go longer time frames and stick with the plan after all.
Quick question (it may be in original post) - what negates the trade (besides being stopped out!) once the signal on the daily is triggered? Is it when the Stochs re-cross in opposite direction?
Have attached example (in a perfect world) trade AUDUSD.
Entries and exit are shown on the 1Hr chart - 5 entries before stop on 100sma hit with a small loss on the final fifth.
The entry times are shown at the top of the lines - 3 of which I couldn't have made at exactly those times. In the example shown entry 2 was at midnight - if not around I assume it would be viable to wait for a pullback and a stoch cross that does not necessarily cross >80?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Daily.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 1hr.png Size: 59 KB
  • #1,345
  • May 23, 2012 10:56am May 23, 2012 10:56am
Quoting Hugh Briss
I'm willing to bet older traders are better than young traders anyway. More patience and less testosterone (no offense! )
Yep.
Don't ask me, I have no idea what's going on.
  • #1,346
  • May 23, 2012 11:02am May 23, 2012 11:02am
Thanks Hugh and Oz for your input, I think I'm getting this sorted now.
Thanks Oz for the offer of info, I am looking at a solution via one of the companies I work for so hopefully will have that wrapped up soon.

Cheers guys.
Don't ask me, I have no idea what's going on.
  • #1,347
  • May 23, 2012 12:11pm May 23, 2012 12:11pm
Quoting Raggs
Hugh,

Not discounted daily and 1H so I will be trying them - it may just be better for me to go longer time frames and stick with the plan after all.
Quick question (it may be in original post) - what negates the trade (besides being stopped out!) once the signal on the daily is triggered? Is it when the Stochs re-cross in opposite direction?
Have attached example (in a perfect world) trade AUDUSD.
Entries and exit are shown on the 1Hr chart - 5 entries before stop on 100sma hit with a small loss on the final fifth.
The entry times are shown at...
Well it's complicated. When I started the thread I was closing on the next heiken ashi change against the trend. Since then I have tried a lot of different exit methods but the ones I like the best are to either trail the stop behind the 100 sma (using the ea all over the thread) or if you just want to trade the immediate move I find the 8 ema about right. I wouldn't use the stochs on their own to exit a trade. As you can see from posts above these days I am adding on quite aggressively and then trailing the stop losses. I've got my gbpusd trades trailing behind the 8 ema now as I don't want to be in the trade once it starts going backwards due to the volatility of gbpusd. Also I have looked into just taking profit at a set level like 200 or 300 pips on each individual trade and trailing the stops behind an ema so whichever is hit first is the exit.
  • #1,348
  • May 23, 2012 1:30pm May 23, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
Hi Hugh, Ozefex et al,

Gads!! I am surrounded by youngsters. I will be 71 at my next BD in Oct. Took up FX 6 mos ago to hopefully help ward off Alzheimers. So far so good. Oz I have to tell you that I am busier in retirement than before but enjoying life more.

I wonder how many more old guys are on this thread?
Hey, there's hope for me (us) yet! I like your profile pic... perhaps I'll move there after retirement! Funny thing is, as part of my job I get to visit many different types of industrial & commercial business operations throughout Aust / NZ & Asia - this week it has ranged from an aircraft maintenance operation to retirement villages! One of the retirement villages was nice (as much as that is possible), but none had an outlook as appealing as your shady spot in the tropics. The great thing about technology & a business like trading is you can do it from anywhere you have a half decent internet connection - which is exactly what I plan to do.
Still learning - No guarantees...
  • #1,349
  • May 23, 2012 1:52pm May 23, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting drzeepfx
Well we got that D1 cross so I am short at .8034 - SL set at 40 -

going to watch real close - As we are pushing up against S level set back on the 15th.
Another problem with EG at the moment is that it's sitting above the 0.8000 level which acted as a very strong resistance level back in 2007/2008 (before the GFC to you young guys!). Apart from the fact I don't have a good feel for the comparative weakness of the EUR vs GBP, this level would make it difficult to trade.

Now I look at it with the benefit of hindsight, that probably wasn't a good place to go short (even if you could have made a few pips). Be nice to catch it under about 0.7700 or perhaps range trade in between.
Still learning - No guarantees...
  • #1,350
  • May 23, 2012 2:06pm May 23, 2012 2:06pm
Damn, the Aussie is down 200 pips from where I was last night! If only I'd taken my entry on the pullback instead of the low looking for a continuation I'd still be in it. I've had a few entries on lows that have done the same thing (kicked me out on a pullback).

There's another thread here somewhere that proposes waiting for an entry after the first pullback to the trend line / moving average. It's a method used by some of the old long term stock traders (yearly charts in a book I've got somewhere) and is probably the same thing you're using Hugh. It takes some patience and you miss out on a few breakouts, but once in you can move to BE fairly quickly and then hold on.
Still learning - No guarantees...
  • #1,351
  • May 23, 2012 2:18pm May 23, 2012 2:18pm
Quoting Ozefex
Damn, the Aussie is down 200 pips from where I was last night! If only I'd taken my entry on the pullback instead of the low looking for a continuation I'd still be in it. I've had a few entries on lows that have done the same thing (kicked me out on a pullback).

There's another thread here somewhere that proposes waiting for an entry after the first pullback to the trend line / moving average. It's a method used by some of the old long term stock traders (yearly charts in a book I've got somewhere) and is probably the same thing you're using...
I don't mind trading breakouts too but they're lower probability than a smooth pullback. Audusd may pull back smoothly yet.
  • #1,352
  • May 23, 2012 2:32pm May 23, 2012 2:32pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
I don't mind trading breakouts too but they're lower probability than a smooth pullback. Audusd may pull back smoothly yet.
Evening Hugh... I'll be waiting for that. Seems most of the moves down have started during late London / early US sessions. Not quite the right time for me at the moment (up at 4 am today as it is).

Latest article in Bloomberg paints a rosy picture of the Aussie economy & way of life. Mostly this is true, but the AUDUSD can still come crashing down if Europe pulls back => China pulls back => less export sales for stuff we dig out of the ground (which is the only thing propping up the economy at the moment and nothing to do with the Government's expertise).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-and-u-s-.html

Edit: To top it off:

From rawstory.com
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/news_quote.gif Australia’s richest person Gina Rinehart has eclipsed Wal-Mart heiress Christy Walton to become the world’s wealthiest woman, according to an annual index by Business Review Weekly. A preview of the respected BRW Rich 200 list, published Wednesday, put the mining tycoon’s personal fortune at Aus$29.17 billion (US$28.48 billion), a figure that sees her outstrip Walton for the first time. In March, Forbes placed Walton and her family’s net worth at US$25.3 billion, while Rinehart’s fortune stood at US$18 billion. BRW rich list editor Andrew Heathcote said mining magnate Rinehart had almost ... (full story)
Still learning - No guarantees...
  • #1,353
  • May 23, 2012 3:03pm May 23, 2012 3:03pm
Quoting Ozefex
Damn, the Aussie is down 200 pips from where I was last night! If only I'd taken my entry on the pullback instead of the low looking for a continuation I'd still be in it. I've had a few entries on lows that have done the same thing (kicked me out on a pullback).

There's another thread here somewhere that proposes waiting for an entry after the first pullback to the trend line / moving average. It's a method used by some of the old long term stock traders (yearly charts in a book I've got somewhere) and is probably the same thing you're using...
Hi Oz, Years ago the McClellans talked about waiting for the Buy spike following a Breakout in an up trend (reverse in a downtrend) in equities markets. Unless you catch the break very early, rather than chasing the spike wait for the first major pullback. If it turns above the prior low and was confirmed by their oscillator - go for it. īSeems at times this works in FX unless the market is really running strong. Tho shorter TFs can maybe let you in with the same concept. Never been to AUS/NZ. Hope to come one day. I hear that the beer is pretty good.
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #1,354
  • May 23, 2012 3:21pm May 23, 2012 3:21pm
Hi,
I am using the Mauro Trailing Stop but I do not understand what the meaning of each parameter is or does. Can someone explain them...

Thank You
Howard
  • #1,355
  • May 23, 2012 3:37pm May 23, 2012 3:37pm
Quoting Ozefex
Evening Hugh... I'll be waiting for that. Seems most of the moves down have started during late London / early US sessions. Not quite the right time for me at the moment (up at 4 am today as it is).

Latest article in Bloomberg paints a rosy picture of the Aussie economy & way of life. Mostly this is true, but the AUDUSD can still come crashing down if Europe pulls back => China pulls back => less export sales for stuff we dig out of the ground (which is the only thing propping up the economy at the moment and nothing to do with the Government's...
The fundamental picture of the aud is not too bad at the moment but a major part of this down trend is the unwinding of the carry trade. Even though the interest rate differential is still substantial as soon as the interest rates start moving down the big boys will start closing their massive long positions. I believe audxxx will only move down so far and then the prices will be low enough for carry traders to consider jumping on again. Take a look at a weekly chart of audjpy and draw the 72 level.
  • #1,356
  • May 23, 2012 3:48pm May 23, 2012 3:48pm
Quoting hwo144
Hi,
I am using the Mauro Trailing Stop but I do not understand what the meaning of each parameter is or does. Can someone explain them...

Thank You
Howard
Stop loss pips = the initial stop loss you want the ea to set. It is set for 5 digit brokers so for a 30 pip stop put 300

Take profit pips = d'oh!

Trail pips = the amount you want to trail the stop by. If you wanted to set an initial 30 pip stop and then trail by 30 pips then set both this and the first parameter to 300.

Trail starts at break even = true or false. Either it trails as soon as the trade is opened or it starts to trail by the set amount once the trade goes into profit by the trail amount.

Move to break even at pips = set this to move to break even after the set number of pips (don't forget add a 0 for 5 dig brokers)

Move to break even lock pips = Once the trade has gone into the amount of profit how many pips do you want to lock in?

Move trail every x pips = What increment do you want to trail the stop by? Can be every 1 micro pip or every 5 pips or whatever

Not sure about the last two but I don't use them.

The most useful aspect of this ea is the move to break even after x pips function. You can use this to get to break even once the price has moved a certain number of pips in your favour. On hourly charts with this system you might use it to lock in 0 pips after a move of 20 pips with an inital stop of 30 pips and a take profit of 200 pips.

I don't really use the trailing function of this ea as I either trail behind an ma or the other trailing stop I posted above is much more robust.
  • #1,357
  • May 23, 2012 3:51pm May 23, 2012 3:51pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
The fundamental picture of the aud is not too bad at the moment but a major part of this down trend is the unwinding of the carry trade. Even though the interest rate differential is still substantial as soon as the interest rates start moving down the big boys will start closing their massive long positions. I believe audxxx will only move down so far and then the prices will be low enough for carry traders to consider jumping on again. Take a look at a weekly chart of audjpy and draw the 72 level.
Another point to mention is that some of these big players are likely to have such large positions that they can't exit them all at once and so they will wait for a pull back before they start selling more again to cover their positions. Now, I've never worked for a bank or other large player so I can't say for certain that this is correct but I believe this is roughly how things can work. Maybe there is somebody here with experience of this?
  • #1,358
  • May 23, 2012 3:51pm May 23, 2012 3:51pm
Yep, a move down to the 73 / 72 level is quite possible, then the carry trade is looking good. Unless of course we go back down to 50.
Still learning - No guarantees...
  • #1,359
  • May 23, 2012 3:55pm May 23, 2012 3:55pm
Quoting Ozefex
Yep, a move down to the 73 / 72 level is quite possible, then the carry trade is looking good. Unless of course we go back down to 50.
Lol, yeah, I suppose.

I'm going to bed, up early again myself. I'm leaving my gbpusd short position open overnight with the trailing stop. It came to within 3 or 4 pips of stopping me out earlier but dropping down a bit again. I'll update in the morning. Looking ok at the moment, 125 pips locked in and 220 pips up at the moment. Hopefuly it will go down a bit more overnight and lock some more in for me while I sleep.
  • #1,360
  • Edited 4:30pm May 23, 2012 4:03pm | Edited 4:30pm
First live trade for a few years. Saw a chance to short EURUSD and quickly move to BE +2 so I don't care if it retraces. It's worth a try & will cover my $1.40 commission on a 0.2 lot with 1:400 leverage.

(Using account with low spread + commission of $3.50 per 100K AUD. Dropped my lot size from 1.0 in demo account to 0.20 to safely account for leverage. Using high leverage to limit maximimum amount held in broker's account, therefore minimising risk if broker goes south... Not applicable for US traders with 1:50 leverage limit.)

Edit: Didn't last long (about an hour 10 min), but no problem. Couple of bucks profit & capital protected. Hope to try that again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 2012.05.24.PNG Size: 55 KB
Still learning - No guarantees...
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