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Price is Everything Chat Room

  • #2,781
  • Edited May 23, 2012 12:30am May 22, 2012 9:06pm | Edited May 23, 2012 12:30am
Ifmyante, I watched your video on trading the AUD, and I must say, it is one of the best video's I have seen on PA/S&D. Thank you for talking the time to take us through such a detailed step by step experience of your trading day. Very insightful!

Just watched the Compression video. What a great in-depth video!
Shapeshift greed and catch em' off guard
  • #2,782
  • May 23, 2012 2:08am May 23, 2012 2:08am
Quoting Fx7877
Hi all,
How do we differentiate between upper rejection wicks (moving south soon) vs consuming supply (thereby continuing to move higher up)? Borrowing Bee's M5 chart in his earlier post, we won't know its rejection until it prints a lower high. Is entry on lower high the place to enter then?

RED talking about consumption or rejection
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4399601#post4399601
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4396065#post4396065

and
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4518621#post4518621 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4518621#post4518621)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4518640#post4518640 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4518640#post4518640)
  • #2,783
  • May 23, 2012 3:02am May 23, 2012 3:02am
Quoting elliotrader
really nice trade it turn to be.really happy since the Eureka moment accord and connected all the dots in my brain.
Glad it turned out to be a good trade.

I put some of my PA observations on the chart - the story of clues PA left. PA is definitely a language we are all on a journey to learn here.

Quoting Fx7877
Hi all,
How do we differentiate between upper rejection wicks (moving south soon) vs consuming supply (thereby continuing to move higher up)? Borrowing Bee's M5 chart in his earlier post
I was looking at the chart last night and was rather at odds with the PA. To me those were classic consumption wicks ready to break north. The following PA was also all a part of a classic bullish BO sequence. But there was one bear candle that broke the whole thing and cause a downward breakdown. This is something I am going to investigate today.

..
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  • #2,784
  • May 23, 2012 4:15am May 23, 2012 4:15am
Quoting Tyoon
Glad it turned out to be a good trade.

I put some of my PA observations on the chart - the story of clues PA left. PA is definitely a language we are all on a journey to learn here.



I was looking at the chart last night and was rather at odds with the PA. To me those were classic consumption wicks ready to break north. The following PA was also all a part of a classic bullish BO sequence. But there was one bear candle that broke the whole thing and cause a downward breakdown. This is something I am going to investigate today.

..
to me those wicks represented strong reactions at supply levels which got rejected followed by a retest of the level which was again rejected. I saw no decision to break a prior decision in m1 taking us north and would have (academic really as i entered much later, but the thought process should still be analysed) entered at market somewhere around that PA. Probably before the retest in all honesty and with a pretty small stop - 10p or so.

I'll post the areas i was keen to see broken and some of how i saw it in a bit. I need a coffee.
I'd love to get this cleared up cos i might have been talking bollocks (even though it went as planned). Sometimes the market can reinforce bad decisions by news or fluke so i'd like to clear this up.

Back in 10.
  • #2,785
  • May 23, 2012 4:26am May 23, 2012 4:26am
Quoting beebolbod
I'd love to get this cleared up cos i might have been talking bollocks (even though it went as planned).
It was only my view. I could been talking the bollocks here.. we could both be talking bollocks. This is the thing with PA.. it is mostly subjective, that is the reason why me and you are see it from different angles.

As far as I can read it.. it was ready to break north but that one bear candle broke down the whole thing and sent it south. In a way this could have been seen from an external view. Most things are in sync atm with the USDX.. and the USDX was ready to carry on north with it's bull break structure. Gold was following along with that as well (so bearish gold) and also the usual suspects; EU, GU, AU, ect.
  • #2,786
  • May 23, 2012 5:30am May 23, 2012 5:30am
Quoting Tyoon
It was only my view. I could been talking the bollocks here.. we could both be talking bollocks. This is the thing with PA.. it is mostly subjective, that is the reason why me and you are see it from different angles.

As far as I can read it.. it was ready to break north but that one bear candle broke down the whole thing and sent it south. In a way this could have been seen from an external view. Most things are in sync atm with the USDX.. and the USDX was ready to carry on north with it's bull break structure. Gold was following along with...
. well i like the bollocks you talk and am still somewhat uncertain of my own bollocks so i need to understand this. As you say, spiking up whilst rising is/can be bad news for bear positions. But not always as the RED posts linked to above show.

So i made some analysis of this. Bear in mind that a lot of this is after the fact because i actually missed this entry, but had i been there i'd have taken a 2% punt on this as the levels had been analysed to buggery beforehand and i had strongly intended to a: exit my long there and b: go short.
Also bear in mind that 2 months ago i didn't know half this stuff even existed so it's really important for me to know whether this is a fluke (pseudo trade) or fair analysis. I think it's right, but i'm a learner. And that can be dangerous.
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I have a question.... does the body of the 'spiking whilst rising candle' play a major part in whether it's bull strength or not? I suspect so.
  • #2,787
  • Edited 6:27am May 23, 2012 6:08am | Edited 6:27am
Quoting beebolbod
. well i like the bollocks you talk and am still somewhat uncertain of my own bollocks so i need to understand this. As you say, spiking up whilst rising is/can be bad news for bear positions. But not always as the RED posts linked to above show.

So i made some analysis of this. Bear in mind that a lot of this is after the fact because i actually missed this entry, but had i been there i'd have taken a 2% punt on this as the levels had been analysed to buggery beforehand and i had strongly intended to a: exit my long there and b: go short.
Also...
Nice analysis mate, I can see and understand where you are coming from but I still stick by my view that it was more like breakout/continuation PA than it was rejection/reversal PA. It's good we are disagreeing though. Would not be as good a thread if everyone agreed.

My final highlights no the chart.

Quoting beebolbod
Bear in mind that a lot of this is after the fact
I also want to highlight to anyone who thinks after-the-fact analysis is of no use (not thinking of anyone specifically.. just generally) then think about this; if you can't identify what you know after-the-fact.. what chance do you have to recognize and trade it in the live market? The more after-the-fact (ATF) analysis you do, the more you are training your mind to see what you know to the point it becomes second nature.
..
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  • #2,788
  • May 23, 2012 6:46am May 23, 2012 6:46am
good morning!!im having troubles waking up for london session the past 3 days...lol

thank you tyoon and beebblood for the informative discussion.
as a final note as to regard to my euro trade i just want to say that for me it was a very low risk trade(remember i only risked 3 pips as my sl was really close to my entry) and my TP is bigger than that so i took it.
some of my analysis was defiantly taken from the master sho and he deserves the credit as well.
im still in this trade and my goal is to manage it the best way possible.

thx again and wish us all some green pips today!!
  • #2,789
  • May 23, 2012 6:53am May 23, 2012 6:53am
Quoting Tyoon
Nice analysis mate, I can see and understand where you are coming from but I still stick by my view that it was more like breakout/continuation PA than it was rejection/reversal PA. It's good we are disagreeing though. Would not be as good a thread if everyone agreed.

My final highlights no the chart.



I also want to highlight to anyone who thinks after-the-fact analysis is of no use (not thinking of anyone specifically.. just generally) then think about this; if you can't identify what you know after-the-fact.. what chance do you have...
Thanks for the input m8. Appreciate the discussion.

BUT this leaves us with something of a quandary in my view.
If this PA is the sort to keep us out of trades then we will miss a lot of potential good setups no? It must happen a lot, all the time.
I really want to know (and will now endeavour to look for) lots of this and see if there is something we can use to determine if it's consuming to continue or reject.
  • #2,790
  • May 23, 2012 7:01am May 23, 2012 7:01am
Quoting Tyoon

I also want to highlight to anyone who thinks after-the-fact analysis is of no use (not thinking of anyone specifically.. just generally) then think about this; if you can't identify what you know after-the-fact.. what chance do you have to recognize and trade it in the live market? The more after-the-fact (ATF) analysis you do, the more you are training your mind to see what you know to the point it becomes second nature.
..
Just wanted to say great post here as well as other folks////been trying to keep up reading and working on spreadsheets///data analysis///house moving///cars breaking down///but digging the discussions when I have the time.
  • #2,791
  • May 23, 2012 7:10am May 23, 2012 7:10am
Quoting elliotrader
good morning!!im having troubles waking up for london session the past 3 days...lol

thank you tyoon and beebblood for the informative discussion.
as a final note as to regard to my euro trade i just want to say that for me it was a very low risk trade(remember i only risked 3 pips as my sl was really close to my entry) and my TP is bigger than that so i took it.
some of my analysis was defiantly taken from the master sho and he deserves the credit as well.
im still in this trade and my goal is to manage it the best way possible.

thx again...
nicely done m8.
  • #2,792
  • May 23, 2012 7:26am May 23, 2012 7:26am
Quoting beebolbod
nicely done m8.
thank you.when it comes from someone like u i can do nothing but smile.

one of the biggest difference in my trading now is that i can really have a feel as to how price movestravels.before i take a trade i have my expectation as to where price is heading to but even more important i also know where price will go in case im wrong and the trade goes against me. thats a big change and advance for me,as before i wouldnt always know why it happened.
  • #2,793
  • May 23, 2012 7:26am May 23, 2012 7:26am
Quoting beebolbod
If this PA is the sort to keep us out of trades then we will miss a lot of potential good setups no?
The PA is what it is. We are here to decide what it means and what to do with it. It doesn't have to mean to stay out of trades or to get in trades. PA is so fluid and dynamic that it can change it's mind over and over. That Gold example was perfect. It had good bull BO PA then in 1 candle the whole BO broke down. That could mean three things; staying out of buys, get in short or hold a short.

PA lives in context of levels, big pic and correlations. One big story we have to read and trade.
  • #2,794
  • May 23, 2012 7:35am May 23, 2012 7:35am
Quoting Tyoon
The PA is what it is. We are here to decide what it means and what to do with it. It doesn't have to mean to stay out of trades or to get in trades. PA is so fluid and dynamic that it can change it's mind over and over. That Gold example was perfect. It had good bull BO PA then in 1 candle the whole BO broke down. That could mean three things; staying out of buys, get in short or hold a short.

PA lives in context of levels, big pic and correlations. One big story we have to read and trade.
yeah spot on. One of the links posted earlier from RED says it's subjective. I'll be using the concept of getting a close within the spikes to determine which way i swing.
  • #2,795
  • May 23, 2012 7:41am May 23, 2012 7:41am
Quoting beebolbod
yeah spot on. One of the links posted earlier from RED says it's subjective.
Yeah, let get this subjectivity of ours increasingly more accurate and profitable aye? Objectivity is boring and almost 'impossible' in this business anyway.
  • #2,796
  • May 23, 2012 8:24am May 23, 2012 8:24am
price either drop to find some buyers at demand level on 30m and than go higher to swap level (there are upper wicks which consumed supply) or will just continue dropping throw the demand,as the trend is down imo.
i will have to take decision to whether how much of a position i want to keep open if indeed price aiming higher.(i dont want to give all my pips away).
if i only knew locking as kenny does i guess i will be a real winner but each step at a time.

any comments?..
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  • #2,797
  • May 23, 2012 8:44am May 23, 2012 8:44am
Quoting elliotrader
thank you.when it comes from someone like u i can do nothing but smile.

one of the biggest difference in my trading now is that i can really have a feel as to how price movestravels.before i take a trade i have my expectation as to where price is heading to but even more important i also know where price will go in case im wrong and the trade goes against me. thats a big change and advance for me,as before i wouldnt always know why it happened.
nice of you to say m8 but i'm still a noob really.
  • #2,798
  • May 23, 2012 11:21am May 23, 2012 11:21am
open for discussion
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DM if you have any questions
  • #2,799
  • May 23, 2012 2:32pm May 23, 2012 2:32pm
Quoting jkrick33
open for discussion
could be a nice trade, where are your targets
  • #2,800
  • Edited 11:50am May 24, 2012 1:16am | Edited 11:50am
targets have been
hit as it was a 1m trade, but this is something to look for other timeframe trades for longs
DM if you have any questions
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