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  • #13,721
  • May 19, 2012 8:00am May 19, 2012 8:00am
Quoting clockwork71
Quite amazing watching everyone on CNBC make excuses for Facebook closing roughly unchanged. The only reason that FB is positive for the day is the fact that the underwriters are intervening at the $38 level......

Risk off.
Another reason may be that unlike Microsoft, Google and Apple, Facebook has yet to show a credible way of actually making money.

Unlike the others they're also a one trick pony so far, they have only one leg to stand on. If Google+ had succeeded Facebook could have been wiped out, I know it failed, it was just an example of how vulnerable they are. I wouldn't buy Facebook currently.
  • #13,722
  • May 19, 2012 8:09am May 19, 2012 8:09am
Quoting o990l6mh
Another reason may be that unlike Microsoft, Google and Apple, Facebook has yet to show a credible way of actually making money.

Unlike the others they're also a one trick pony so far, they have only one leg to stand on. If Google+ had succeeded Facebook could have been wiped out, I know it failed, it was just an example of how vulnerable they are. I wouldn't buy Facebook currently.
No doubt, and the fact that the financial statements had to be made, it looks quite a bit like FB has already peaked in the real world financially speaking. This smells of a classic dump the stock before the company falls apart type of deal.

Will there be Facebook in a few years? Probably. But how long will it be before something better comes along? Or, will people just get bored?

The cheer leading by CNBC was ridiculous. They keep talking about how the retail investor is "sitting on the sidelines" in America, and I think they believed this was the magic bullet to get people to come back. They obviously don't understand that the Baby Boomers are retiring, and my generation isn't nearly big enough to replace them. Also, after being burnt twice in ten years - why would they come back anyway?

Every once in a while someone will say that the "retail investor isn't coming back", and you can see it in their eyes, I think they know deep down that Wall Street has really screwed itself. By extension, CNBC is screwed too as they rely on viewers to be engaged in the markets to be interested in watching them. I would be interested in seeing the viewership comparison over the last say 15 years.......
  • #13,723
  • May 19, 2012 8:27am May 19, 2012 8:27am
Quoting clockwork71
No doubt, and the fact that the financial statements had to be made, it looks quite a bit like FB has already peaked in the real world financially speaking. This smells of a classic dump the stock before the company falls apart type of deal.

Will there be Facebook in a few years? Probably. But how long will it be before something better comes along? Or, will people just get bored?

The cheer leading by CNBC was ridiculous. They keep talking about how the retail investor is "sitting on the sidelines" in America, and I think they believed this...
A possible scenario might be that Facebook will be acquired by one of the other big players. Microsoft would seem a possible candidate with their already established interest in Facebook.

As for the US retail investors not coming back, you may be right indeed. But in this age of globalization it wouldn't surprise me at all if they're replaced by foreign retailers, say Chinese or what have you.
  • #13,724
  • May 19, 2012 9:34am May 19, 2012 9:34am
Quoting clockwork71
Quite amazing watching everyone on CNBC make excuses for Facebook closing roughly unchanged. The only reason that FB is positive for the day is the fact that the underwriters are intervening at the $38 level......

Risk off.
They timed it just right,LOL, the NAS, FTSE ETC are in free-fall at the Moment.....
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #13,725
  • May 20, 2012 2:30pm May 20, 2012 2:30pm
Quoting j4d
They timed it just right,LOL, the NAS, FTSE ETC are in free-fall at the Moment.....
True. I think the guys at CNBC know that the retail trader is in real trouble....
  • #13,726
  • May 20, 2012 8:32pm May 20, 2012 8:32pm
Quick post on flow charting a system on the blog....
  • #13,727
  • May 21, 2012 11:52pm May 21, 2012 11:52pm
Just looking at the South African Rand and gold. Unlike the Aussie, the Rand is a pure play on gold. The Aussie can be effected by Chinese economic numbers as well as gold and copper, as the Aussies export so much to China. The South Africans mine a ton of gold. In fact, it is about the only reason to trade this currency.

As you can see, we are pulling back from a massive shot straight up in the USD/ZAR pair. This coincides with the drop in gold. As gold prices rise, this pair will fall as more money flows into S.A. to buy the gold. Notice how we are at resistance in gold, and a support zone in the USD/ZAR area. I have support in USD/ZAR from 8.2 to 8.0 as a potential buy area. (Pip values are much smaller and the spread larger in this pair.)

Anyway, just another way to look at gold....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,728
  • May 23, 2012 3:27pm May 23, 2012 3:27pm
I am watching CNBC in the background as I am doing my analyst work. Some moron is spouting on how great everything is because of the announcement that France and Italy are united in their desire for Eurobonds. So.......he thinks that Merkel is going to state that the Germans are more than happy to foot the bill and back everyone else.

Jesus I hate these assholes. I am sure right now there is someone looking to buy because this idiot stated this.

The longer I trade and talk to industry insiders, the more I am amazed at how intelligence is missing. The "best and brightest" are absolutely retarded.
  • #13,729
  • May 23, 2012 9:30pm May 23, 2012 9:30pm
LOL
  • #13,730
  • May 24, 2012 2:15pm May 24, 2012 2:15pm
Quoting clockwork71
I am watching CNBC in the background as I am doing my analyst work. Some moron is spouting on how great everything is because of the announcement that France and Italy are united in their desire for Eurobonds. So.......he thinks that Merkel is going to state that the Germans are more than happy to foot the bill and back everyone else.

Jesus I hate these assholes. I am sure right now there is someone looking to buy because this idiot stated this.

The longer I trade and talk to industry insiders, the more I am amazed at how intelligence is...
The ray of sunlight we all know and love.
  • #13,731
  • May 24, 2012 3:25pm May 24, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting Rk33333
The ray of sunlight we all know and love.
  • #13,732
  • May 24, 2012 3:27pm May 24, 2012 3:27pm
Wow....the Euro looks really, really, really sick. This "shooting star" at the bottom of a move can signal a real collapse if we get below the 1.25 level.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,733
  • May 24, 2012 3:39pm May 24, 2012 3:39pm
I don't know if it will be tomorrow, but the markets are setting up like something really fucking ugly is around the corner.......a lot of risk off continuation looks likely........especially in *BIG SURPRISE* the Euro.
  • #13,734
  • May 24, 2012 4:12pm May 24, 2012 4:12pm
Quoting clockwork71
I don't know if it will be tomorrow, but the markets are setting up like something really fucking ugly is around the corner.......a lot of risk off continuation looks likely........especially in *BIG SURPRISE* the Euro.
I'm not much for predictions as I'm usually wrong...

But I'm willing to bet that come fall 2012 Greece will be out of the euro. To be honest I think the decision has been made already and the preparations are going on in secret.

This may cause the disintegration of the entire euro currency if bank runs start in the PIIGS countries. There is no such thing as a financial firewall that can withstand a full on financial storm.

One could laugh at the whole tragicomedy if not for the fact that the resulting supercrisis will hit the entire world and may very well cause something like 1929 again, only world wide this time around. Remember what happened shortly after in many countries... Fascism, hate, war etc.

I know I sound like Dr Doom and I hope to God that things will not turn out so ugly, but history has a nasty tendency of repeating itself or at least repeating similar patterns. They didn't have nuclear weapons in 1939 though, so this time around things may end for good...

Until then I'm going to keep trading what the charts tell me
  • #13,735
  • May 24, 2012 10:00pm May 24, 2012 10:00pm
Quoting o990l6mh
I'm not much for predictions as I'm usually wrong...

But I'm willing to bet that come fall 2012 Greece will be out of the euro. To be honest I think the decision has been made already and the preparations are going on in secret.

This may cause the disintegration of the entire euro currency if bank runs start in the PIIGS countries. There is no such thing as a financial firewall that can withstand a full on financial storm.

One could laugh at the whole tragicomedy if not for the fact that the resulting supercrisis will hit the entire...
Interesting point: The Greeks elected several neo-Nazi types in the last election.........
  • #13,736
  • May 24, 2012 10:01pm May 24, 2012 10:01pm
Uploaded a video on the blog.....

Chris
  • #13,737
  • May 26, 2012 5:40am May 26, 2012 5:40am
Both of these charts look absolutely horrible. The idea that two shooting stars or what I call "continuation pinbars" forming at the bottom of a big move south is very bearish. Both of these are showing a potential breakdown and run to the Dollar. This means bad news is out there somewhere, and it is waiting to make an impact.

A lot of people think that insiders get wind of bad news before us. I think the more likely reason these things happen just before announcements is that the markets are "leaning" or already inclined towards something, and THEN something bad comes out. It looks like all it will take is a little push and these pairs go down a few hundred pips. If not, I will be selling rallies.....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,738
  • May 26, 2012 5:44am May 26, 2012 5:44am
I agree ,but what would you say about if you had millions you would invest in knowing your fundie onions ,thats how I see ,cause its mind blowing to think how news and charts marry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd monthly target 26-5.png Size: 28 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #13,739
  • May 26, 2012 5:50am May 26, 2012 5:50am
the $ is bullish I feel ,trend is really nice
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd lfx w1 balanced trend 26-5-12.gif Size: 16 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #13,740
  • May 26, 2012 6:03am May 26, 2012 6:03am
Wondering how do you see Gold ?or even Rand now ?


Quoting clockwork71
Just looking at the South African Rand and gold. Unlike the Aussie, the Rand is a pure play on gold. The Aussie can be effected by Chinese economic numbers as well as gold and copper, as the Aussies export so much to China. The South Africans mine a ton of gold. In fact, it is about the only reason to trade this currency.

As you can see, we are pulling back from a massive shot straight up in the USD/ZAR pair. This coincides with the drop in gold. As gold prices rise, this pair will fall as more money flows into S.A. to buy the gold. Notice...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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