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How to be successful!!

  • #61
  • May 20, 2012 8:05am May 20, 2012 8:05am
Quoting Custos
Of course you can apply coin toss probability concept to it. The future outcome is independent from the past ones. And as you pointed out, if it were dependent on the last one, it very likely would result in another loss due to emotional imbalance (thus leading to an even higher likelihood of a loss in the next trade).
But when leaving emotions out, the odds of each trade being a winner is 75%, no matter how many times he won or lost before that. Read a statistics book to understand the difference better between connected events and unconnected...

I understand Stat's very well, we've already established that the traders emotional state can affect the outcome of the next trade, therefore there connected, trading is not a coin toss.

The method in use could be breaking down and cause 10losses in a row.

Ofcourse you could have a 90% win rate, if you factored out the emotional issue, which drops you to 75% in reality.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #62
  • May 20, 2012 8:14am May 20, 2012 8:14am
Quoting Turveyd
I understand Stat's very well, we've already established that the traders emotional state can affect the outcome of the next trade, therefore there connected, trading is not a coin toss.

The method in use could be breaking down and cause 10losses in a row.

Ofcourse you could have a 90% win rate, if you factored out the emotional issue, which drops you to 75% in reality.
okay, I am tired of discussing with you. You are right turv, get back to trading your penny account.
  • #63
  • May 20, 2012 8:17am May 20, 2012 8:17am
You all bring forth an interesting topic, though,
how a different R:R - W:L affects other variables such as emotional issues, length of time a version of the technicals lasts, and so on.
It'd be a way to rate systems.
  • #64
  • May 20, 2012 8:19am May 20, 2012 8:19am
Quoting Custos
okay, I am tired of discussing with you. You are right turv, get back to trading your penny account.

And you go back to throwing your toys out of the Pram!


You think there unconnected and I think there connected, that is where we differ, no point being all childish cause someone disagrees with you.

and trading isn't a coin toss, thats just a simplistic way of viewing it, ofcourse there connected that is why people have statistically implausible win and losing streaks.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #65
  • May 20, 2012 8:22am May 20, 2012 8:22am
Quoting Turveyd
And you go back to throwing your toys out of the Pram!


You think there unconnected and I think there connected, that is where we differ, no point being all childish cause someone disagrees with you.
Well, if somebody doesn't want to understand on purpose, then I go back to being all childish.
Quoting Turveyd
and trading isn't a coin toss, thats just a simplistic way of viewing it, ofcourse there connected that is why people have statistically implausible win and losing streaks.
trades are unconnected. Let me put it this way: I am all automated, a computer program is executing every of my rules. No emotions involved. Are my past losses now connected to my future losses or wins? No, they are independent from each other. End of discussion.

And even in a totally random set there are winning and losing streaks. There are nice systems that, if you test them over a decade will win for 2 years (extensive winning streak), lose for 2 years (extensive losing streak) and the rest produce random results. That's normal not extraordinary or implausible.
  • #66
  • May 20, 2012 8:26am May 20, 2012 8:26am
Quoting Custos
Well, if somebody doesn't want to understand on purpose, then I go back to being all childish.

trades are unconnected. Let me put it this way: I am all automated, a computer program is executing every of my rules. No emotions involved. Are my past losses now connected to my future losses or wins? No, they are independent from each other. End of discussion.
Doesn't understand on purpose, it might be the case for you due to being a EA trader only, but 10 losses in a row could still occur ( or a 100 in your case as 10 is normal ) if your method fails, therefore still connected although less so.

For everyone else who isn't a EA trader, which is most of us, they are CONNECTED!!

When did you ever state before you was a 100% EA trader ?? not physic cause no such thing exists.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #67
  • May 20, 2012 8:33am May 20, 2012 8:33am
Quoting Turveyd
Doesn't understand on purpose, it might be the case for you due to being a EA trader only, but 10 losses in a row could still occur ( or a 100 in your case as 10 is normal ) if your method fails, therefore still connected although less so.

For everyone else who isn't a EA trader, which is most of us, they are CONNECTED!!
we can discuss endlessly here. You can't convince me and I can't convince you, let's leave it at that. And for those who don't have emotional issues and just trade their plan, they are as well not connected. Even if you were emotionally involved, you can't control the market, it might give you 20 fake-outs in a row before following through again no matter how you feel about your past losses / wins. And the market is similar to lady luck, sometimes it will give you everything you want, sometimes it will fake you out and sometimes it will give you randomly some wins and some losers.
Quoting Turveyd
When did you ever state before you was a 100% EA trader ?? not physic cause no such thing exists.
in a tremendous amount of my past posts.
  • #68
  • May 20, 2012 8:34am May 20, 2012 8:34am
Quoting Custos
Well, if somebody doesn't want to understand on purpose, then I go back to being all childish.

trades are unconnected. Let me put it this way: I am all automated, a computer program is executing every of my rules. No emotions involved. Are my past losses now connected to my future losses or wins? No, they are independent from each other. End of discussion.

And even in a totally random set there are winning and losing streaks. There are nice systems that, if you test them over a decade will win for 2 years (extensive winning streak), lose for...
The trade reasons are highly connected, whether it's due to emotions changing how one makes decisions or to higher-time-frame reasons that carry from one trade to the next.

That would connect trades, even if one can also isolate the chance from such variables for each trade.
  • #69
  • May 20, 2012 8:39am May 20, 2012 8:39am
Quoting ha-pattern
The trade reasons are highly connected, whether it's due to emotions changing how one makes decisions or to higher-time-frame reasons that carry from one trade to the next.

That would connect trades, even if one can also isolate the chance from such variables for each trade.
read my latest response to turv.
  • #70
  • May 20, 2012 8:39am May 20, 2012 8:39am
Quoting Custos

in a tremendous amount of my past posts.

Yeah I read every post everyone on here makes and remember everything about them.

Not many people are purely robot's so yet again, not the case, some might be, but saying ALL trades for everyone is unconnected is just silly.

Most people they are going to be connected.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #71
  • May 20, 2012 8:43am May 20, 2012 8:43am
Quoting Turveyd
Yeah I read every post everyone on here makes and remember everything about them.

Not many people are purely robot's so yet again, not the case, some might be, but saying ALL trades for everyone is unconnected is just silly.

Most people they are going to be connected.
but it doesn't matter if you feel good or bad or want to revenge trade or not. The outcome is independent of how you feel. If the market gives you 10 wins in a row, then that's your luck, if it give you 10 losses in a row, then you had bad luck. Overall it should give you 75% wins and 25% losers, but how they are distributed is completely random and not linked at all to each other. And you never ever know when your system will reach the 75/25 equilibrium again, maybe after 10 trades, maybe after 10.000.
  • #72
  • May 20, 2012 8:48am May 20, 2012 8:48am
Quoting Custos
but it doesn't matter if you feel good or bad or want to revenge trade or not. The outcome is independent of how you feel. If the market gives you 10 wins in a row, then that's your luck, if it give you 10 losses in a row, then you had bad luck. Overall it should give you 75% wins and 25% losers, but how they are distributed is completely random and not linked at all to each other. And you never ever know when your system will reach the 75/25 equilibrium again, maybe after 10 trades, maybe after 10.000.
Rule #1 there is no such thing as LUCK or BAD LUCK, use Statical probability please.

The outcome isn't dependant on how you feel, ofcourse it isn't, but how you feel can make you make bad decisions, bad decisions = more losers.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #73
  • May 20, 2012 8:57am May 20, 2012 8:57am
Quoting Turveyd
Rule #1 there is no such thing as LUCK or BAD LUCK, use Statical probability please.

The outcome isn't dependant on how you feel, ofcourse it isn't, but how you feel can make you make bad decisions, bad decisions = more losers.
Okay, then why we don't just include the emotions in the equation. Let's say due to emotions the win-rate reduces to 60%. Still we don't know how the trades are distributed. Sometimes we will have 6 winners and 4 losers in a row. Sometimes first 4 losers then 6 winners. Sometimes the first 20 are winners then we get 10 losers, then again 40 winners, then again 30 losers. We have no idea how they are distributed. That is the point I am trying to make.
Montecarlo analysis actually tries to counter that problem by redistributing past trades endlessly until 95% of outcomes can be dealt with with an appropriate lot-size.
The market just doesn't always give you a static 60% win-rate all the time. Sometimes you get more sometimes you get less, and you never know when it gets back to normal.
  • #74
  • May 20, 2012 9:06am May 20, 2012 9:06am
Quoting Custos
Okay, then why we don't just include the emotions in the equation. Let's say due to emotions the win-rate reduces to 60%. Still we don't know how the trades are distributed. Sometimes we will have 6 winners and 4 losers in a row. Sometimes first 4 losers then 6 winners. Sometimes the first 20 are winners then we get 10 losers, then again 40 winners, then again 30 losers. We have no idea how they are distributed. That is the point I am trying to make.
Montecarlo analysis actually tries to counter that problem by redistributing past trades endlessly...
Already a stated above, your win rate, factoring out emotional issues ie pure system could be 90% say, but you still get 75% win rate with emotional baggage.

It works both ways, there will be times of high confidence or easy market moves where you'll get 90% which would bring it back down to 75%.

But the connected effect, is why people have high runs of losers and winners out side what is statistically expected.

I've won 19 times in a row, statical odds on that are LOW, and likely 19losers if not more in a row also LOW the difference wasn't / isn't 'luck' it's merely I was trading well or trading very badly.

Sometimes they happen, by coincidence, but to often to all be coincidence.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #75
  • May 20, 2012 9:08am May 20, 2012 9:08am
Quoting Turveyd
Already a stated above, your win rate, factoring out emotional issues ie pure system could be 90% say, but you still get 75% win rate with emotional baggage.

It works both ways, there will be times of high confidence or easy market moves where you'll get 90% which would bring it back down to 75%.

But the connected effect, is why people have high runs of losers and winners out side what is statistically expected.

I've won 19 times in a row, statical odds on that are LOW, and likely 19losers if not more in a row also LOW the difference wasn't...
okay, you don't wanna understand, fine with me. I am done here.
  • #76
  • May 20, 2012 9:13am May 20, 2012 9:13am
Quoting Custos
okay, you don't wanna understand, fine with me. I am done here.

Or maybe, it's you that doesn't want to understand / accept you might be wrong, ever consider that. Your current emotional state is affecting your ability to debate is a very good example that you are not a robot.


I've had several runs of losers @19 and winners @19, the odds on these are millions to 1 if not billions, loads of other people have seen the same.

I've made maybe 4000 trades, so what are the odds on pure coin tosses giving me million to 1 events a few times and other people ?? ZERO!!

Which means there is more all of this than pure coin toss and stat's.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #77
  • May 20, 2012 9:16am May 20, 2012 9:16am
Quoting Turveyd
Or maybe, it's you that doesn't want to understand / accept you might be wrong, ever consider that. Your current emotional state is affecting your ability to debate is a very good example that you are not a robot.
yeah dr. Phil, please do an extensive analysis.

Quoting Turveyd
I've had several runs of losers @19 and winners @19, the odds on these are millions to 1 if not billions, loads of other people have seen the same.

I've made maybe 4000 trades, so what are the odds on pure coin tosses giving me million to 1 events a few times and other people ?? ZERO!!

Which means there is more all of this than pure coin toss and stat's.
whatever man, enjoy your weekend.
  • #78
  • May 20, 2012 9:23am May 20, 2012 9:23am
Quoting Custos
yeah dr. Phil, please do an extensive analysis.


whatever man, enjoy your weekend.

Just point out, that stating the "other person is wrong in a debate is kinda childish" and stupid.

The evidence is there, with the million : 1 trades occuring way more than they should do, can you try to counter that ?? if you can't then you should accept defeat and re consider your opinion.


Keep an open mind is my advice to you don't be happy when proven wrong as you've learnt something, thats what I do.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #79
  • May 20, 2012 9:27am May 20, 2012 9:27am
Quoting Turveyd
Just point out, that stating the "other person is wrong in a debate is kinda childish" and stupid.

The evidence is there, with the million : 1 trades occuring way more than they should do, can you try to counter that ?? if you can't then you should accept defeat and re consider your opinion.


Keep an open mind is my advice to you don't be happy when proven wrong as you've learnt something, thats what I do.
well, you are wrong, and I didn't learn anything from you. Now again, good weekend to you sir. You can discuss with yourself.
  • #80
  • Edited 9:48am May 20, 2012 9:28am | Edited 9:48am
Quoting Custos
read my latest response to turv.
Yes, literally, you're right. Any set method will be random, sometimes.
But the market is not random all of the time.
Okay, here's some gobbledygook language to make this plainer --


If a non-random constant is introduced into a random system such as charts may represent,
then the chart begins to create degrees of centeredness around times when either that non-random constant or what it most affects occurs.
Thus, you get pools of non-randomness in an otherwise-random system.

A piece of important news, a set time for the weekend, and other non-random (after the fact, at least) constants or statistical mores (a good indicator reading in some markets and not others, for instance) can create such a ripple effect.

Maybe such things are so numerous as to keep the random system virtually so.
And, filtering for the at-least temporary effect of a constant may be difficult, but not impossible.
But one can definitely condition the randomness of a chart with the indicators of a larger time frame,
so as to avoid using that method you stated produces lots, few or inconsistent results in differing markets.
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