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Are we all enemies at the forex market?

  • #21
  • May 8, 2006 12:33pm May 8, 2006 12:33pm
Quoting tojoko
Indeed, it _is_ a teamsport. Or, why do you think George Sorros told every
body, that he bet against the Pound? (Of course, only _after_ he did so?)
"After" being the Key word
Nolite dormiens pungere ursum. -- Latan Proverb.
  • #22
  • May 8, 2006 1:35pm May 8, 2006 1:35pm
Quoting tojoko
Indeed, it _is_ a teamsport. Or, why do you think George Sorros told every
body, that he bet against the Pound? (Of course, only _after_ he did so?)
IMO there isn't much "team" or "sport" to it at all. Here's my analogy:

Ever been to a dog park during a really busy time when there are like 100 dogs running around? I found it mildly (very mildly) interesting to watch the way the dogs formed these loose packs that ran around together for a few minutes, only to break up into new packs when some diversion came along (think news...) that sent some of them in new directions. Chaos, but with some identifiable patterns and predictable responses... like when somebody tossed a tennisball across the park. That could be analogous to the NFP report... ;-)
  • #23
  • May 8, 2006 2:05pm May 8, 2006 2:05pm
To answer the question of the thread shortly, in a sense, everybody in the forex market is against everybody....Every trader is competing with literally every other trader....Simple & true, and that's just my opinion of course...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #24
  • May 8, 2006 4:45pm May 8, 2006 4:45pm
Quoting narafa
To answer the question of the thread shortly, in a sense, everybody in the forex market is against everybody....Every trader is competing with literally every other trader....Simple & true, and that's just my opinion of course...


Thanks,

Nader
Amen, Nader...pure and simple truth.

This is different than saying there aren't people working together from time to time, but as the previous poster said...sometimes they do, sometimes they don't, however when it comes down to it...every dog has to eat, and if there's only one piece of meat left, dogs are going to fight each other to get it.
  • #25
  • May 9, 2006 1:02am May 9, 2006 1:02am
Quoting tojoko
why do you think George Sorros told every
body, that he bet against the Pound?

that's just the media portraying his action as "unbelievably" accurate. publicity or no publicity created is trivial.

Soros said the market will respond the same way even if he had not shorted the pound. In terms of the universal law of reflexivity, he is just a market participant. His analysis before his action was that a turning point where the cognitive and participatory actions will diverge, is reaching soon.

The big fall in pound merely affirms that his thinking is accurate at that time.

There is no team sports action here when the illusion of dichotomy has been broken. It means Soros is "one" with the market, in a natural state of union with market flow at that time. And this is the holy grail of trading...
  • #26
  • May 9, 2006 2:05am May 9, 2006 2:05am
Quoting opteron
that's just the media portraying his action as "unbelievably" accurate. publicity or no publicity created is trivial.

Soros said the market will respond the same way even if he had not shorted the pound. In terms of the universal law of reflexivity, he is just a market participant. His analysis before his action was that a turning point where the cognitive and participatory actions will diverge, is reaching soon.

The big fall in pound merely affirms that his thinking is accurate at that time.

There is no team sports action here when the illusion of dichotomy has been broken. It means Soros is "one" with the market, in a natural state of union with market flow at that time. And this is the holy grail of trading...
I take it your a fan?
  • #27
  • May 9, 2006 9:11pm May 9, 2006 9:11pm
Quoting Darkstar
I take it your a fan?
No, I'm being objective. The law of reflexivity applies in real life for the turning points in the fib levels of the Vegas method.

Understanding it offers a clearer perspective behind market movements, rather than using fibs for mathematics's sake.
  • #28
  • May 9, 2006 9:20pm May 9, 2006 9:20pm
  •  MikeG
  • | Joined Aug 2005 | Status: Empowered to Profit by James16.com | 59 Posts
Well, if we all are enemies, then we're the friendliest bunch I've ever seen!
I am an extremely satisfied customer of the James16 Group!!!
  • #29
  • Oct 14, 2007 9:58am Oct 14, 2007 9:58am
I was thinking about, what will happen if... ok, imagine something like that:

We all (the most people as possible, including all live-traders of this forum, and of all other forums of the web, plus all other traders that don't look forums, but can be contacted via IM or emails) think about one day (say for example moonday, we choose a currency (say for example gbp-usd), we choose for a particular hour/minute/second when there are no NEWS in the market, it's important (say for example 8.45.00 gmt+1), then.. in that exact moment we all buy as more as we can gbp-usd, everybody buy buy buy the most of he can buy (in live accounts!)! every forex trader of this world buy the most he can buy, of that currency, in that exact moment! and we all set TP for 50 pips.

what will happen?
do price will go up in 5 seconds, and hit all our TP? (and after touch it, everyorder will be closed, so maybe it will return 50pips down?)

what will happen?
$$$ for everybody?
  • #30
  • Oct 14, 2007 10:07am Oct 14, 2007 10:07am
What would happen is that you would be investigated and probably end up in more trouble than it is worth. Some people found this out when they tried a similar in the stock market.
Quoting tunera
I was thinking about, what will happen if... ok, imagine something like that:

We all (the most people as possible, including all live-traders of this forum, and of all other forums of the web, plus all other traders that don't look forums, but can be contacted via IM or emails) think about one day (say for example moonday, we choose a currency (say for example gbp-usd), we choose for a particular hour/minute/second when there are no NEWS in the market, it's important (say for example 8.45.00 gmt+1), then.. in that exact moment we all buy as more as we can gbp-usd, everybody buy buy buy the most of he can buy (in live accounts!)! every forex trader of this world buy the most he can buy, of that currency, in that exact moment! and we all set TP for 50 pips.

what will happen?
do price will go up in 5 seconds, and hit all our TP? (and after touch it, everyorder will be closed, so maybe it will return 50pips down?)

what will happen?
$$$ for everybody?
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #31
  • Oct 14, 2007 10:15am Oct 14, 2007 10:15am
Quoting tunera
I was thinking about, what will happen if... ok, imagine something like that:

We all (the most people as possible, including all live-traders of this forum, and of all other forums of the web, plus all other traders that don't look forums, but can be contacted via IM or emails) think about one day (say for example moonday, we choose a currency (say for example gbp-usd), we choose for a particular hour/minute/second when there are no NEWS in the market, it's important (say for example 8.45.00 gmt+1), then.. in that exact moment we all buy as more as we can gbp-usd, everybody buy buy buy the most of he can buy (in live accounts!)! every forex trader of this world buy the most he can buy, of that currency, in that exact moment! and we all set TP for 50 pips.

what will happen?
do price will go up in 5 seconds, and hit all our TP? (and after touch it, everyorder will be closed, so maybe it will return 50pips down?)

what will happen?
$$$ for everybody?

If all the traders knew about it I am sure all the brokers would as well.

You may see the longest short spike in trading history

Mart
----o00o--°(_)°--o00o----
  • #32
  • Oct 14, 2007 11:01am Oct 14, 2007 11:01am
Quoting tunera
I was thinking about, what will happen if... ok, imagine something like that:

We all (the most people as possible, including all live-traders of this forum, and of all other forums of the web, plus all other traders that don't look forums, but can be contacted via IM or emails) think about one day (say for example moonday, we choose a currency (say for example gbp-usd), we choose for a particular hour/minute/second when there are no NEWS in the market, it's important (say for example 8.45.00 gmt+1), then.. in that exact moment we all buy as more as we can gbp-usd, everybody buy buy buy the most of he can buy (in live accounts!)! every forex trader of this world buy the most he can buy, of that currency, in that exact moment! and we all set TP for 50 pips.

what will happen?
do price will go up in 5 seconds, and hit all our TP? (and after touch it, everyorder will be closed, so maybe it will return 50pips down?)

what will happen?
$$$ for everybody?
I wish we could do that...but sadly the only ones in control are those with the big bucks (in the billions)
  • #33
  • Oct 14, 2007 11:21am Oct 14, 2007 11:21am
I couldn't agree more with the second post in this thread.

In the stock market traders trade against one another and during the whole process the broker gets a part of the money as comissions

On Forex traders play within the retail broker's computer system.So basically most retail FX traders do not even realize that they do not buy or sell anything , they just place bets on movement of specific currency pair.These bets are accepted by the broker

Brokers have a system which can be described this way (a bit simplified):

1. They have customer accounts

2. They have a profit account

If you become their customer and place for example 10K in your account their statistics tell them that for example within 2 weeks a certain amount out of these 10K will be at the broker's profit account , for example 4K

And here is the explanation why so many traders complain about their FX brokers:

It is far more expensive to obtain a customer than to maintain a customer

The broker does not need a long-lasting relationship with you as this would usually be the case with a stockbroker.Their job is get as much money from your account balance into their profits account as soon as possible.After that you can leave , no one will care!

1. On one side the broker will take steps to accelerate the money movement from the customer accounts into the broker's profits accounts

These are many ways to do this: freezing the platform , manual execution , stop hunting , requoting etc.

2. Dealing with profitable traders

Face it: If you are a really profitable trader the broker does not need you because only a small part of your account balance is gonna come into the broker's profit account - maybe even nothing

and when you make profitw the broker will even have to take money out of their profit account in order to pay it into yours.Can you see my point? it is so simple

For this reason most retail brokers will take steps to get rid of you , this is very easy.They just will frustrate you to a level at which you will leave on your own

So basically Forex is the same as a casino for most retail traders.Just when you go to a casino you know you are gambling and on Forex most people actually think they are trading!

andrew
  • #34
  • Oct 14, 2007 12:36pm Oct 14, 2007 12:36pm
Quoting fx_amateur
I couldn't agree more with the second post in this thread.

In the stock market traders trade against one another and during the whole process the broker gets a part of the money as comissions

On Forex traders play within the retail broker's computer system.So basically most retail FX traders do not even realize that they do not buy or sell anything , they just place bets on movement of specific currency pair.These bets are accepted by the broker

Brokers have a system which can be described this way (a bit simplified):

1. They have customer accounts

2. They have a profit account

If you become their customer and place for example 10K in your account their statistics tell them that for example within 2 weeks a certain amount out of these 10K will be at the broker's profit account , for example 4K

And here is the explanation why so many traders complain about their FX brokers:

It is far more expensive to obtain a customer than to maintain a customer

The broker does not need a long-lasting relationship with you as this would usually be the case with a stockbroker.Their job is get as much money from your account balance into their profits account as soon as possible.After that you can leave , no one will care!

1. On one side the broker will take steps to accelerate the money movement from the customer accounts into the broker's profits accounts

These are many ways to do this: freezing the platform , manual execution , stop hunting , requoting etc.

2. Dealing with profitable traders

Face it: If you are a really profitable trader the broker does not need you because only a small part of your account balance is gonna come into the broker's profit account - maybe even nothing

and when you make profitw the broker will even have to take money out of their profit account in order to pay it into yours.Can you see my point? it is so simple

For this reason most retail brokers will take steps to get rid of you , this is very easy.They just will frustrate you to a level at which you will leave on your own

So basically Forex is the same as a casino for most retail traders.Just when you go to a casino you know you are gambling and on Forex most people actually think they are trading!

andrew
It sound as a possible thing, but what about certain brokers, like oanda? It never give a re-quote, never a freeze, never see a stop hunting, and executions are soo fast that i think it is not manual, i mean, it seems a good broker, what do you think about it ?
  • #35
  • Oct 14, 2007 12:52pm Oct 14, 2007 12:52pm
Yes I trade with Oanda myself

Oanda is a bit different because they do not make expensive advertisment campaigns and try to make money with the quantity of traders

So basically they do not have the same expenses as FXCM , IG Markets , ACM etc. , this does not mean they do not make money from your losses

But I think making money from the customer's losses is nothing bad , just most brokers drive traders into losses in order to get their money.Oanda is an except there

Although if you are one of those "news gamblers" you should rather avoid Oanda because such people are not very welcome there and they will finish you up sooner or later if you shouold make profits during news on a regular basis

andrew
  • #36
  • Oct 14, 2007 1:08pm Oct 14, 2007 1:08pm
By the way regarding Oanda , I forgot to mention that they have built in certain features into their system to help you lose as well.But they do not tend to manipulate open trades like most other brokers.

However following features must at least be considered as "ethically questionable":

1. No possibility to hedge through the same account (only through a sub-account) , basically this is one way trading

2. Margin call means everything will get closed immediately

3. Very expensive withdrawals = £25.00 = $50.00

Come on , do I really need to explain why it is the way it is?

andrew
  • #37
  • Oct 14, 2007 1:51pm Oct 14, 2007 1:51pm
Quoting fx_amateur
By the way regarding Oanda , I forgot to mention that they have built in certain features into their system to help you lose as well.But they do not tend to manipulate open trades like most other brokers.

However following features must at least be considered as "ethically questionable":

1. No possibility to hedge through the same account (only through a sub-account) , basically this is one way trading

2. Margin call means everything will get closed immediately

3. Very expensive withdrawals = £25.00 = $50.00

Come on , do I really need to explain why it is the way it is?

andrew
Well, about news trading, i think it is not productive to trade news with oanda, just because the spread become too much big during the news, so i really don't understand how somebody can trade during news, in oanda, anyway no probl. And just think about hedge, it is the best trick/cheat done by the brokers to let you give them some more pips (spread), it is absolutely a stupid thing to hedge trades (this is just my point of view), i like when a broker don't let you hedge, it mean that they are just serious and don't want to cheat you with stupid things like hedge.

(many hedge-like people will tell me bad things, but this is just what i think about hedges, if you bought 10k of eur-usd and want to hedge it, just close it, instead of open a sell10k order and pay 1-2-3 pips of spread [depend on what broker u use], the result is exactly the same, but closing it instead of hedging it you save some pips, that's my think.)

Anyway, if a broker take proit from your losses or not, it is exactly the same, if a trade is a good trade, it will end in profit, traders should don't care about what brokers do, they (traders) just have to say "thank you" to brokers, because without brokers no-one will have the possibility to trade forex, happy trading
  • #38
  • Oct 14, 2007 2:06pm Oct 14, 2007 2:06pm
possibly it is so with certain honest brokers but saying thank you to someone like FXCM? no , thank you .I don't need such help

Hedging? well , realizing losses is a great thing to do.Just the brokers know that advanced traders are able to buy time by hedging losing positions and brokers want you to realize losses instead of freezing the losses.When there is turmoil in the market and everything is running crazy you can hedge instead of realizing losses until everything comes down and you see the result.

1-2-3 pips? sorry I can't understand your logic , so if you have a losing positin with -200 pips for example you would rather realize a loss -200 pips instead of spending money for 3 additional pips?

and I also don't get your logic with "good" and "bad" trades , so if a trade is made and it is "good" then you don't need to care about losses as no losses will be made? and if you made a loss , this means the decision to make this trade was wrong from the very beginning? Well , well , this is truly revolutionary , I never thought about this from this angle

andrew
  • #39
  • Oct 14, 2007 3:01pm Oct 14, 2007 3:01pm
Hey, i'm sorry if i've offended you in anyway, this is not my purpose, let me explain,
About FXCM (i had a live account with they), many people say they are not a good broker, anyway i never had problem with them, the only problem i've experienced is that swaps was always negative (always negative, really strange eh???), but i think it was due to some problem with my account, or i don't know.. i don't know if someone else experienced this kind of problem, it was 2 years ago that i was trading with fxcm, they had a good customer service, good executions, little problem with swap, but i want to think that it was a problem of my account and that now they have fixed it (anyway i don't care, because i leaved them to trade with oanda, so bye bye fxcm)!

Anyway, i want to say excuseme to you and to everyother trader that use hedges in their strategy, and that is reading these posts, what i think about hedging (when i say it is stupid etc..) it is just my point of view, i think it is stupid, i also think that cheese is not good (i don't like it!) but it doesn't mean that cheese is not good for everybody, or that hedging is a stupid thing for everybody, but let me explain why i say it:

Ok, you say.. you are loosing 200 pips, and you don't want to close the position with a loss, ok so you have two alternatives:

1) let it opened and wait that price return in profit-area.
2) hedge it selling (if you had bought in past) the same amount of buyed currency.

Ok, you chooes the "2", and what do you solved? If you look "unrealized p/l" you still see -203 pips (200+3, assuming spread is 3), and it remain -203 until you close one of the two positions, i don't see where is the good thing, in hedging instead of closing. You say, the market was crazy and i hedged position, now (after 4-5 hours) the market returned calm, and i see how the situation is, now i can close one of the two positions, and i choose to close the buy (let's say that in these 4-5 hours the price moved down of 30 pips, so you have buy=-230 sell=+27), you close the buy, and you just closed a position of -230, sure you got a +27 opened, but if you closed the buy at -200 you was saving 3pips the same (the 3pips spread).
Or, let's say the price goed up of 30pips, and you decide to close the sell (buy=-170 sell=-33), you are still at -203, anythin you do you cannot let a loosing position turn on a winning position hedging, it is just an illusion, what is done is done, if you have a -200 position opened, you can close it or wait the price come in profit-territory again.

What about the logic of good-trades and bad-trades, what i mean is that, if you do a good trade, you see the result of that good trade, example: you see a good opportunity for buy, you think that the currency will surely (never sure eheh) go up of at least 10-15 pips in the next 1-2 hours, well you buy, put a stoploss, put a target point, and wait, if the trade was good, the position will be closed hitting the target point, if it was bad, the position will hit the stoploss, that is essentially my strategy, i only enter when i guess the price will move in a direction in the next 30-60-120 minutes, i see it go in that direction, arrived at the target that i choosed (sometime i can have a target of 50pips and a position that go for 6-7 hours, sometime i have a target of 10 pips and a position that go for 15-30 minutes), if everything goes right, the position reach the target in the time i've predicted, if something doesn't go right, i close position (also with only 2-3 pips of profit), and wait for the next set-up, because of this if i see that a position is going to loss (and the set-up is not yet good), i just close it and bye bye, it happen, but i cannot think of a position of -200 pips, that's not my trading style, but you know everybody have his own trading style, this is only my thinking.
  • #40
  • Oct 14, 2007 3:34pm Oct 14, 2007 3:34pm
Regarding the post above, hedging is not actually the correct term when opening an exactly the same position, in the opposite direction, usually it's taking some different postion, reducing the risk (i.e long G/U, then you short Eur/Usd in a hope the Eur will fall more then GU and hence you make money) Otherwise you are simply paying the spread again...

And regarding the broker trading against their clients, i think it is definately true... VAST majority of brokers want your money, 95% are loosers, why not use this great opportunity? I think that's the safest bet in the forex market... It's not just about phsycology either, forex is not easy, it is not a ATM...

I also remember reading somewhere on the forums that some brokers put profitable brokers on different system, i.e they actually hedge these clients on the real market.

Don't fool yourself, there are hardly any brokers who let you trade the true interbank...
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