Analysis for Major Pairs with Charts (eur/usd,usd/jpy,usd/chf,gbp/usd..)

EUR/GBP,Weekly View(16-20.01),4Hours Chart-


Price has found support at 0,827(weekly Pivot).


- Bullish Probability will break 0,832(100SMA confluence with Weekly R1), next 0,834(daily Pivot confluence with downtrendline), and reach 0,838(200SMA).


- Downside, if 0,827(uptrendline, confluence with Weekly Pivot) is broken and confirmed, price could reach 0,8215(Monthly S1) or even 0,8171(Weekly S1).

USD/SGD,Weekly View(16-20.01),4Hours Chart-


Price is moving sideways to Bearish in the 4H timeframe.


- Bullish Probability would have to break and confirm the 1,294(200SMA confluence with Monthly Pivot and Downtrendline) to reach 1,3018(Weekly R1) and 1,3076(Weekly R2).



- Bearish Probability would break 1,2918(Weekly Pivot) and 1,29(daily Pivot confluence with uptrendline and 30 and 50 SMA) to reach 1,286(Weekly S1) and 1,277(Monthly S1 and Weekly S2)

USD/NOK,Weekly View(16-20.01),4Hours Chart-


Price has found Resistence at 6,0845(Weekly R1).


- Bearish Probability would retrace to 6,01(Daily pivot confluence with Uptrendline), break it and go further to 5,9869(confluence between Weekly Pivot and 100SMA), or even 5,9338-5,90Area(200SMA, Weekly S1, Monthly Pivot, 61,8 fibonacci). This Key area holds the uptrend on 4H chart.


- Bullish Action without an important retracement would break weekly R1 and reach 6,106(Monthly R1), further 6,1376(Weekly R2) or even 6,2352(confluence between Monthly R2 and weekly R3).

USD/SEK,Weekly view(16-20.01),4Hours Chart-

Price has found resistence at 7,0397(Monthly R1) and 7,0131(Weekly R1).

- Bearish Probability as a Retracement in the Uptrend on 4H chart, could break Weekly R1 and reach 6,9275(daily pivot maybe confluence with 30 and 50SMA), further 6,9072(confluence between Uptrendline, Weekly Pivot and 100SMA, and 61,8 fibonacci). A deeper retracement could find support at 6,8644(200SMa confluence with Monthly Main Pivot).

- Bullish Probability without retracement would Break the Monthly R1 and reach 7,07(Weekly R2) or even 7,176(Weekly R3) before a Bearish Retrace.

EURO INDEX, weekly View(16-20.01),4Hours chart-


Price has found support at 100,78(Monthly S1 Pivot) after the S&P Downgrades on Friday, and it is moving in a downtrend confirmed by the 30,50,100 and 200 Moving Averages on 4H chart.
- Bullish Probability could retrace the price above the 30 and 50 SMA, and beak 101,50(confluence between Daily and Weekly Main pivots).The next resistence area is 102,05-102,22area(100SMA, downtrendline and Last Week R1 Pivot).Above that stands 102,75(61,8 fibo maybe confluence with 200SMA).
- Bearish Action without retracement would break 100,20 and reach 99,5(pivots)

USD INDEX, Weekly view(16-20.01),4Hours Chart-


Price has found resistence between 81,5-81,9area(Weekly R1 and Monthly R1) and it is moving in an Uptrend confirmed by the Moving averages.
- Bearish Probability would break 80,95(Daily Pivot maybe confluence with 50SMA), and 80,71(confluence between 100SMA, Weekly Pivot and Uptrendline). The Key-Level 80,00(confluence between 200SMA and weekly R1) could show signals of a Trend reversal on 4H chart.
- Bullish Probability without a retracement would break 81,9(last week R1 Pivot) and reach 82,59(confluence between Monthly and Weekly R2)or even 83,78(WR3)

Thank You for Your support. This week my Major Pairs' Analysis has had about 85-90% Accuracy for the Price Projection. As You know from my previous analysis I make projections based on Price Action and Technicals for both the Bullish and Bearish Probabilities. Check Out the Success Ratio on My Price Projections for Last Week and remember to Read My Analysis for Next Week (23-27th of January) tomorrow.

To Your success,
Doctortyby

1)Eur/Usd-Daily chart (23.04 Update)-

Bullish probability - KEY LEVELS to watch

>> 1.321 (1st level Key-Level, the last Resistence, confluence with the 50 DMA)<<,

>> 1.326 (2nd level Key-Level, confluence between the Main Monthly Pivot and the Main Downtrend dynamic Resistence Trendline, and Secondary Uptrend dynamic Trendline/ now Resistence)<<,

>> 1.340 (next resistence)<<,

>> 1.350 (2nd Level Key Level, confluence between the Monthly R1 Pivot, the 200 DMA dynamic resistence and the Resistence from February)<<,

>> 1.377 (Monthly R2 Pivot)<<



Bearish probability - KEY LEVELS to watch

>> 1.316 (1st level Key-Level, confluence between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 30 DMA support)<<,

>> 1.312 (100 DMA)<<,

>> 1.306-1.304 area (2nd level Key Area, confluence between the Monthly S1 Pivot, 50% Fibonacci Retracement and the Support of the congestion area from the last 2 weeks)<<,

>> 1.300-1.297 (2nd level Key-Level, Hystorical level, support from 15th of March and 16th of February, and the 38.2 Fibonacci Retracement)<<,

>> 1.275-1.270 (Monthly S2 Pivot and the support from 16th of January)<<

To Your success,
Doctortyby

Eur/Usd - 4 Hours Chart (02.05.2012), Weekly view,

a) - Bullish probability - Key Levels to watch:

- 1.320 - Key confluence between the Monthly Main Pivot, the Weekly Main Pivot, and the 200 SMA on the 4 Hours chart (2nd level Key Level),

- 1.323 - 38.2 % Fibonacci Retracement from the last swing up on the 4 hours chart (simple Key Level),

- 1.329 - 1.330 area - confluence between the Weekly R1 Pivot, the 23.6% fibonacci Retracement and the Main Downtrend line and secondary Uptrend line cross (2nd level Key Level),

- 1.337 - 1.338 area - Key confluence between the Weekly R2 Pivot and the Resistence from the beginning of April (1st level Key Level),

- 1.347 - Weekly R3 Pivot (simple Key Level).


b) - Bearish probability - Key Levels to watch:

- 1.314 - Key confluence between the Weekly S1 Pivot and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement from the last swing up (1st level Key Level),

- 1.304 - 1.303 area - confluence between the Weekly S2 Pivot and the Monthly S1 Pivot (1st level Key Level),

- 1.300 - 1.297 area - confluence between the historical level, the Support from the 16th of April (2nd level Key Level).


Bullish and Bearish Probabilities - Eur/Usd - 4 Hours Chart :

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image215.jpg

To your success,
Thank You for your support,

Doctortyby

4) Gbp/Usd - 4 Hours chart (02.05.2012) - Weeklly view,

a) - Bullish probability - Key Levels to watch:

- 1.621 - the Weekly Main Pivot (simple Key Level),

- 1.630 - the last Resistence (simple Key Level),

- 1.634 - the Weekly R1 Pivot (simple Key Level),

- 1.642 - confluence between the Weekly R2 Pivot and the Monthly R1 Pivot (1st level Key Level).


b) - Bearish probability - Key Levels to watch:

- 1.614 - 1.611 - confluence between the Weekly S1 Pivot, the Monthly Main Pivot and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement from the last swing up (2nd level Key Level),

- 1.606 - confluence between the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, the Support from the 30th of March, and the 100 SMA (2nd level Key Level),

- 1.600 - Key confluence between the historical support, the Weekly S2 Pivot, the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement, and the 200 SMA (2d level Key Level),

- 1.594 - 1.593 area - confluence between the Monthly S1 Pivot and the Weekly S3 Pivot (1st level Key Level).


Bullish and Bearish Probabilities - Gbp/Usd - 4 Hours Chart :

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image944.jpg

To your success,
Thank you for your support,

Doctortyby

1) Eur/Usd - Daily Chart (03.05.2012) - Monthly view,

a) - Bullish probability - Key Levels to watch:

- 1.316 - 1.320 area - confluence between the Main Monthly Pivot, Main Downtrend line and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (2nd level Key Area),

- 1.328 - confluence between the 200 DMA and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (1st level Key Level),

- 1.341 - confluence between the Monthly R1 Pivot, resistence from the 1st of April and the Secondary Uptrend line (2nd level Key Level),

- 1.349 - Resistence from the 1st of March (simple Key Level),

- 1.359 - Monthly R2 Pivot (simple Key Level).


b) - Bearish probability - Key Levels to watch:

- 1.303 - 1.306 area - confluence between the Monthly S1 Pivot, the supports from the 15th of March and 16th of April, and 50% Fibonacci Retracement (2nd level Key Area),

- 1.295 - 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, confluence with the support from the 16th of February (1st level Key Level),

- 1.282 - Monthly S2 Pivot (simple Key Level),

- 1.264 - 1.262 area - confluence between the Monthly S3 Pivot and the support from the 15th of January (1st level Key Level).


Probability Charts:

Bullish and Bearish Probabilities - Eur/Usd - Daily Chart :

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image402.jpg


Mixed Probabilities - Eur/Usd - Daily Chart :

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image595.jpg


http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image815.jpg

To your success,
Thank You for your support,
Doctortyby

1). - a) Eur/Usd - 4 Hours Chart (09.05.2012) - Bullish Probability Key Levels:

1. 1.300 - 1.303 area - confluence between the hystorical level and support from 16th of April and the Monthly S1 Pivot, (2nd Level Key Level),
2. 1.307 - 1.308 area - confluence between the main Weekly Pivot and the Friday close which formed a Gap on Sunday, (1st Level Key Level),
3. 1.318 - 1.320 area - Important confluence between the Monthly Main Pivot, the Weekly R1 Pivot and the 200 SMA, (2nd Level Key Level),
4. 1.325 - dynamic resistence from the Downtrend line,
5. 1.339 - 1.341 - Important resistence, confluence between the Monthly R1 Pivot, the Weekly R2 Pivot, the two dynamic resistences from the secondary Uptrend lines, and the Resistence from 3rd of April, (2nd Level Key Level).

1). - b) Eur/Usd - 4 hours Chart (09.05.2012) - Bearish Probability Key Levels:

1. 1.295 - Last Support from Sunday,
2. 1.285 - 1.282 area - confluence between the Weekly S1 Pivot and the Monthly S2 Pivot.

Probability Scenarios Charts:

 

1. Bullish and Bearish Probabilities:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image759.jpg

 

1. Mixed Probabilities:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image382.jpg

To Your success,
Thank You for your support,
Doctortyby

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image839.jpg

2). - a) Gbp/Usd - 4 Hours Chart (09.05.2012) - Bullish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 1.618 - confluence between the Weekly main Pivot and the 30 and 50 SMAs, (2nd Level Key Level),
2. 1.624 - confluence between the Weekly R1 Pivot and the Resistence from the 1st and 2nd of May, (1st Level Key Level),
3. 1.630 - hystorical level and resistence from the 30th of April,
4. 1.636 - Weekly R2 Pivot.

2). - b) Gbp/Usd - 4 Hours Chart (09.05.2012) - Bearish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 1.611 - confluence between the Monthly main Pivot and the 100 SMA, (1st Level Key Level)
2. 1.605 - confluence between the Weekly S1 Pivot and the support from the 3rd of April, (1st Level Key Level),
3. 1.597 - 1.600 area - Important confluence between the Weekly S2 Pivot, the 200 SMA, the hystorical level and the support from the 13th of April and 27th of March, (2nd Level Key Level),
4. 1.592 - Monthly S1 Pivot,
5. 1.587 - Weekly S3 Pivot,
6. 1.582 - Supports from the 5th, 10th and 16th of April. (2nd Level Key Level).

Probability Charts:

 

1. Bullish and Bearish Probabilities:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image484.jpg

 

1. Mixed Probabilities:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image111.jpg

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image285.jpg

Thank You for your support,
To your success,
Doctortyby

3). - a) Usd/Chf - 4 Hours Chart (09.05.2012) - Bullish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 0.919 - 0.921 area - confluence between the Weekly Main Pivot, the Monthly R1 Pivot, and the Resistences from the 6th, 9th and 10th of April, (2nd Level Key Level),
2. 0.925 - Resistence from the 16th of April,
3. 0.927 - Resistence from Sunday,
4. 0.934 - 0.936 area - Important confluence between the Weekly R1 Pivot and the Monthly R2 Pivot, (1st Level Key Level).

3). - b) Usd/Chf - 4 Hours Chart (09.05.2012) - Bearish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 0.918 - Friday close, and the close of the Gap from Sunday opening,
2. 0.911 - Important confluence between the Monthly Main Pivot, the Weekly S1 Pivot, the cross between the 100 and 200 SMAs, and the Support from April 12, (2nd Level Key Level)
3. 0.905 - Support from the 1st of May,
4. 0.900 - Hystorical level and the Support from the 3rd of April, (1st Level Key Level)
5. 0.896 - Confluence between the Monthly S1 Pivot and the Weekly S2 Pivot, (1st Level Key Level).

Probability Charts:

1. Bullish and Bearish Probabilities:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image986.jpg

 

1. Mixed Probabilities:
   

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image364.jpg

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image977.jpg

Thank You for your support,
To your success,
Doctortyby

4). - a) Usd/Jpy - 4 Hours Chart (09.05.2012) - Bullish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 80,00 - 80.12 area - Important confluence between the Weekly Main Pivot, the Hystorical level, 50% Fibonacci Retracement from the Daily Chart, and the cross between the 30 and 50 SMAs, (2nd Level Key Levels),
2. 80.30 - 80.40 area - confluence between the Weekly R1 Pivot and the Resistence from the 16th of April, maybe even a future confluence with the 100 SMA (2nd Level Key Level),
3. 80.99 - 81.00 area - Important confluence between the Monthly Main Pivot, the Weekly R2 Pivot, future confluence with the 200 SMA, and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement from the Daily Chart, also a resistence from the 13th of April,(2nd Level Key Level)
4. 81.38 - Weekly R3 Pivot,
5. 82.25 - confluence between the Monthly R1 Pivot and the 23.6% Fibonacci from the Daily chart,(1st Level Key Level)

4). - b) Usd/Jpy - 4 Hours Chart (09.05.2012) - Bearish Probabilty Key Levels:

 

1. 79.70 - Supports from the 1st and 6th of May, (1st Level Key Level)
2. 79.43 - Weekly S1 Pivot,
3. 79.15 - 79.05 area - confluence between the Weekly S2 Pivot, and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement from the Daily Chart, (1st Level Key Level)
4. 78.68 - 78.46 area - confluence between the Weekly S3 Pivot and the Monthly S1 Pivot, (1st Level Key Level)

Probability Charts:

1. Bullish and Bearish Probabilities:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver..._2/image87.jpg

 

1. Mixed Probablities:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image664.jpg

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image625.jpg

Thank You for your support,
To your success,
Doctortyby

I strongly believe that a technical analyst cannot predict the future Price Movement with high accuracy based only on the Hystorical price movement. That is why I propose multiple scenarios in my Analysis, Bullish scenarios, Bearish scenarios and Mixed Probabilities (when the Key Levels fail). All these probability scenarios have in common the Key Levels that show certain Supports and Resistences for the Price Action. But in my opinion, a successful trader has to be prepared both for Key Level confirmation or failure, and has to be able to trade all the clear Probability Scenarios. This is my belief and I will continue my path until I will find a clear proof that I am wrong.

Please how can I plot these key levels on my mt4 chart. Help me please. Which button do I have to click to have them displayed.
Thanks in advance.

>> 1) Gbp/Usd - 4 hours Chart - (15.05.2012)
Market Conditions:

 

1. Sideways Movement from September 2010 (Between 1.525 - 1.675),
2. Intermediate Uptrend from January 2012,
3. Minor Downtrend from 1st of May 2012, 250 Pips Sell-Off
4. Increasing Bearish Volume,

- Bullish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 1.611 - confluence between the Monthly Main Pivot, Weekly Main Pivot, the Minor Trend Trendline, the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, (2nd Level Key Level)
2. 1.616 - confluence between the Weekly R1 Pivot and the 100 SMA, also resistence fro 2nd of May (2nd Level Key Level),
3. 1.625 - Weekly R2 Pivot,
4. 1.630 - hystorical level, confluence with the Weekly R3 Pivot Point and resistence from the 30th of April,(2nd Level Key Level),

- Bearish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 1.605 - confluence between the 200 SMA and the Support from the 3rd of April, (1st Level Key Level)
2. 1.600 - confluence between the Weekly S1 Pivot, the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and the hystorical level, (2nd Level Key Level),
3. 1.597 - Important confluence between the Weekly S2 Pivot and the support from the 13th of April and 27th of March, (2nd Level Key Level),
4. 1.592 - Monthly S1 Pivot and a support from March,
5. 1.587 - Weekly S3 Pivot.

Probability Charts:
Bullish and Bearish Clear Probabilities:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image798.jpg Mixed Probabilities: http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image502.jpg
http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image187.jpg

To Your success,
Thank You for your support,
Doctortyby

>> 2) Usd/Chf - 4 hours Chart - (15.05.2012)
Market Conditions:

 

1. Major Uptrend from August 2011,
2. Sideways Movement from December 2011 (between 0.955 - 0.892),
3. Minor Uptrend from 1st of May 2012, 330 Pips Rally,
4. Increasing Bullish Volume,
5. Breakout Continuation Gap - 0.918

- Bullish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 0.936 - Important confluence between the Weekly R1 Pivot and the Monthly R2 Pivot, (1st Level Key Level).
2. 0.940 - Weekly R2 Pivot Point,
3. 0.947 - 0.949 area - confluence between the Monthly R3 Pivot and the Weekly R3 Pivot, (1st Level Key Level)

- Bearish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 0.927 - 0.928 - Resistence from the 6th of May and Weekly Main Pivot Point, (1st Level Key Level),
2. 0.925 - Support from the 15th of April,
3. 0.923 - 0.922 area - confluence between the Monthly R1 Pivot Support and the weekly S1 Pivot, also future confluence with the 100 SMA, (2nd Level Key Level),
4. 0.915 - confluence between the 200 SMA and the Weekly S2 Pivot, (1st Level Key Level)
5. 0.910 - confluence between the Monthly Main Pivot Point and the Weekly S3 Pivot, (1st Level Key Level).

Probability Charts:

Bullish and Bearish Clear Probabilities:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image373.jpg

Mixed Probabilities:


http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image749.jpg
http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image500.jpg

To Your Success,
Thank You for Your support,
Doctortyby

>> 3) Usd/Jpy - 4 hours Chart - (15.05.2012)
Market Conditions:

 

1. Major Downtrend from 2007,
2. Intermediate Downtrend from 20th of March 2012,
3. Minor Sideways Movement from 1st of May 2012,
4. Increasing Bearish Volume.

- Bullish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 80.30 - 80.40 area - confluence between the Weekly R1 Pivot and the Resistence from the 16th of April, and from the 2nd and 3rd of May, confluence with the 100 SMA (2nd Level Key Level),
2. 80.49 - Weekly R2 Pivot,
3. 80.90 - 81.00 area - Key confluence between the 200 SMA, Weekly R3 Pivot, Monthly Main Pivot Point, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement from the previous Intermediate Uptrend, (2nd Level Key Level)
4. 81.80 - the Resistence from the 10th and 20th of April.

- Bearish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 79.61 - 79.42 area - Major Demand Area, Weekly S1 Pivot, Supports from the 1st, 6th, 9th and 14th of May, (2nd Level Key Level)
2. 79.19 - 79.15 area - confluence between the Weekly S2 Pivot and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement from the previous Intermediate Uptrend, (1st Level Key Level)
3. 78.96 - Weekly S3 Pivot.

Probability Charts:

Bullish and Bearish Clear Probabilities:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image653.jpg

Mixed Probabilities:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image608.jpg
http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image816.jpg

Thank You for your support,
Doctortyby

>> 4) Aud/Usd - 4 hours Chart - (15.05.2012)
Market Conditions:

 

1. Major Uptrend from February 2009 - Sideways Movement from May 2011,
2. Intermediate Downtrend from February 2012,
3. Minor Downtrend from 30th of April 2012, 525 Pips Sell-Off
4. Increasing Bearish Volume,

- Bullish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 1.002 - Psychological Level, the resistence from the 9th of May, Monthly S3 Pivot Point resistence, (1st Level Key Level)
2. 1.008 - Weekly Main Pivot Point,
3. 1.013 - 1.016 area - Major Supply Area, Key confluence between the resistences from the 7th and 10th of May, the Monthly S2 Pivot, the Weekly R1 Pivot, and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement from the Sell-Off in May, (2nd Level Key Level)
4. 1.020 - Resistence from the 8th of May, confluence with the 100 SMA,
5. 1.027 - 1.029 area - confluence between the 200 SMA, the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement from the Sell-Off in May, and the Weekly R2 Pivot Point, (2nd Level Key Level)
6. 1.037 - confluence between the Monthly Main Pivot and the Weekly R3 Pivot, (1st Level Key Level)

- Bearish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 0.994 - 0.993 area - confluence between the support from the 9th of August 2011 and the Weekly S1 Pivot,
2. 0.987 - support from the 15th December 2011, and Weekly S2 Pivot.

Probability Charts:


Bullish and Bearish Clear Probabilities:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver..._2/image16.jpg

Mixed Probabilities:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image278.jpg http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image655.jpg

Thank You for your support,
to your success,
Doctortyby