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Overlay Positive Hedging EA

  • #201
  • May 14, 2012 5:37pm May 14, 2012 5:37pm
Have so much to read and respond to, for now please see this statement.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf DetailedStatement2.pdf   668 KB | 753 downloads
Skype: heliosphan187
  • #202
  • Edited 7:30pm May 14, 2012 6:35pm | Edited 7:30pm
I'm sorry for impeding the progress of the thread by doing something really stupid. Over the weekend I put the KingHigh EA on a chart just to make sure it would load ok. But I forgot to take it off before trading started!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm such an idiot..edit: for what it's worth I just attach KH tpl.

I put it on GU, default settings which is true false, so it would buy gbpusd and sell eurusd. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE OTHER EA'S already running on eu gu with Paulss settings but with 150 layer. So its running both..

Anyway, go by my VPS results if trying to evaluate the basic functioning of the EA. My local PC account will be used for experimentation.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl eu1.tpl   44 KB | 525 downloads
File Type: tpl gu1.tpl   39 KB | 454 downloads
File Type: tpl kh.tpl   19 KB | 494 downloads
Skype: heliosphan187
  • #203
  • May 14, 2012 7:22pm May 14, 2012 7:22pm
a couple of months ago, I've coded a few multi currency (hedging) EAs under MT5 to check whether this kind of trading could lead to a longterm edge or not.
The short summary of my results is: NOT
I've tried dozens of combinations of correlated/uncorrelated pairs with whatever entry criterions you can imagine, averaging up/down, martingaling, trading short/long only, fixed single TP, fixed basket TP and what not
I always got into a situation during backtest where you, if traded live, never would have gone through the DD and instead pulled the rip line
  • #204
  • May 14, 2012 7:29pm May 14, 2012 7:29pm
Here are my current VPS results. Notice how smoothe the equity curve is.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf vps.pdf   382 KB | 955 downloads
Skype: heliosphan187
  • #205
  • May 14, 2012 8:16pm May 14, 2012 8:16pm
The funny thing my mistake shows that you can give it a bias at certain times and profit handsomely. How many of us think euro will go up? When using other directional indicators, you can use this thing to make scalps. This of course changes the whole original intent of the system to hedge everything. But if greece defaults, wouldn't you want to be biased against eu? This could be a semi-high frequency directional system with underlying hedges.

Quoting iwjw
a couple of months ago, I've coded a few multi currency (hedging) EAs under MT5 to check whether this kind of trading could lead to a longterm edge or not.
The short summary of my results is: NOT
I've tried dozens of combinations of correlated/uncorrelated pairs with whatever entry criterions you can imagine, averaging up/down, martingaling, trading short/long only, fixed single TP, fixed basket TP and what not
I always got into a situation during backtest where you, if traded live, never would have gone through the DD and instead pulled the rip...
Skype: heliosphan187
  • #206
  • May 14, 2012 9:09pm May 14, 2012 9:09pm
it was actually my belief that this kind of "hedge" EA should not work. but that babypips thread really confuses me so that i think maybe i give it a try.

that babypips thread does seem to have a few traders who have high rate of profitable trades (both direction).

i'm trying to code something to simulate that. when done, will post here.

Quoting iwjw
a couple of months ago, I've coded a few multi currency (hedging) EAs under MT5 to check whether this kind of trading could lead to a longterm edge or not.
The short summary of my results is: NOT
  • #207
  • May 14, 2012 9:10pm May 14, 2012 9:10pm
that's okay, if the left trades are in pairs (eurusd vs gbpusd), that are not orphans. the EA will not exit a pair when they are not in profit.

on the other hand, the losing trades will be there forever, you have to figure out an exit urself.

Quoting Thepipster
if you look at Dirtybrown's last account statement, all those open trades are orphan trades, some are just single pair, others were opened and never came to TP, probably opened in wrong directions...

It may be true about EG going down, but dirtybrown's first account statement looks different than the rest in that it has trades going the other way that profited, too????
  • #208
  • May 14, 2012 9:11pm May 14, 2012 9:11pm
DB, the profit is less than DD. the EA is killing the account.

Quoting Dirtybrown
Have so much to read and respond to, for now please see this statement.
  • #209
  • May 14, 2012 9:40pm May 14, 2012 9:40pm
Quoting charvo
it was actually my belief that this kind of "hedge" EA should not work. but that babypips thread really confuses me so that i think maybe i give it a try.

that babypips thread does seem to have a few traders who have high rate of profitable trades (both direction).

i'm trying to code something to simulate that. when done, will post here.
The whole point of stat arb/pairs trading is the expectation that one of the pairs loses, but the other profits more, so net profit...the pairs are entered at a gap and then they can go up, down sideways, whatever with no change in bottom line P/L, the only thing that makes the DD is the widening of the gap, and so the profit is always reached when the gap closes. That is why I don't need a stop loss, because the pairs will always come back to correlation, and revert to mean, also...in 1 min TF, and since no SL, no losses, ever! It's unbelievable! But true for me and many others.


Euro won't survive, Greece is only the first to fall, then Italy, then Spain...those people don't work or produce, they just sit at home and collect taxes from working Germans...bums!
Too close for pips, switching to points.
  • #210
  • May 14, 2012 10:36pm May 14, 2012 10:36pm
Hi, pipster, with all due respect, i have exact opposite view. the correlation could be gone, and forever gone. hence the DD could be more and more and never recover.

1st thing is that we need to admit it is actually trading EURGBP, if anyone can prove me it is NOT, I'll be so grateful and award him $100 thru paypal.

2nd thing is that looking at EURGBP, as you said, if eur is doomed, then it goes down all the way, then all "buy eurusd sell gbpusd" positions will sink to bottomless hole too.

Quoting Thepipster
That is why I don't need a stop loss, because the pairs will always come back to correlation, and revert to mean
  • #211
  • May 15, 2012 12:57am May 15, 2012 12:57am
Hi Dirtybrown,

looking at both your statements some of the GU is at 0.06 lot. How did the EA end up with such lot size? i thought EA was suppose to use 0.08 v 0.10?
  • #212
  • May 15, 2012 2:18am May 15, 2012 2:18am
Some FTests:

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/cusber/oph/305833

GBPUSD
EURUSD
true
true
ADR 1.0

max floating DD 495.88

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/cusber/oph4/305415

Magic:900000
USDCHF
EURUSD
true
true
ADR 1.0
Magic:900001
USDCHF
EURUSD
true
true
ADR 0.8
Magic:900002
USDCHF
EURUSD
true
false
ADR 0.8
Magic:900003
USDCHF
EURUSD
false
true
ADR 0.8
Magic:900004
USDCHF
EURUSD
true
false
ADR 1.0
Magic:900005
USDCHF
EURUSD
false
true
ADR 1.0

Max DD:-2103.4

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/cusber/oph-1/305743

GBPUSD
EURUSD
true
false
ADR 1.0
MaxDD:-83.35

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/cusber/oph3/305746

USDCHF
EURUSD
true
false
ADR: 0.8
MaxDD: -184.42

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/cusber/oph5/305748

magic: 900000
CADJPY
AUDJPY
true
false
1.0

magic: 9001
AUDJPY
CADJPY
true
true
1.0

magic:3
GBPUSD
GBPUSD
true
true
0.8

MaxDD:-770.91

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/cusber/oph6/305753

magic:90000
GBPUSD
EURUSD
true
false
1.0

magic:900001
GBPUSD
EURUSD
true
true
0.8

MaxDD:-531.88

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/cusber/oph8/305759

magic:90000
GBPUSD
EURUSD
true
false
0.8

magic:423425
GBPUSD
EURUSD
layer:150
true
true
1.0

MaxDD:-542,91

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/cusber/oph9/305761

magic:90000
GBPUSD
EURUSD
true
false
1.0

magic:9000012
GBPUSD
EURUSD
layer:150
true
true
0.8

magic:90021
GBPUSD
EURUSD
layer:150
true
false
0.8

MaxDD:-824.86
  • #213
  • May 15, 2012 3:47am May 15, 2012 3:47am
I believe this EA can perform very good if the currency pair are highly correlation, the reason why we have large DD recently, because EU and GU are not in highly correlation.
please see this correlation chart in difference period.
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/currency-correlation
http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/01-01-correlation

I found there are 2 set pair they are highly correlation.
1. AUDUSD/NZDUSD (almost over 90% in 1 week over to 1 year period)
2. EURUSD/USDCHF (it is negative correlation but have highly percentage, almost over 90% in 1 week over to 6 month period)

3. XAUUSD/XAGUSD (this pair have high risk, ADR ratio is 1:21, that means 0.01 lot gold to 0.21 silver, due to 365 ADR calculated by robot)

I just start a demo on both pair, EURUSD/USDCHF got a good profit 10% in 1 hour and have no large DD.

you can have a test...
  • #214
  • May 15, 2012 4:34am May 15, 2012 4:34am
Quoting Thepipster
The whole point of stat arb/pairs trading is the expectation that one of the pairs loses, but the other profits more, so net profit...the pairs are entered at a gap and then they can go up, down sideways, whatever with no change in bottom line P/L, the only thing that makes the DD is the widening of the gap, and so the profit is always reached when the gap closes. That is why I don't need a stop loss, because the pairs will always come back to correlation, and revert to mean, also...in 1 min TF, and since no SL, no losses, ever! It's unbelievable!...
  • #215
  • May 15, 2012 4:49am May 15, 2012 4:49am
Quoting charvo
DB, the profit is less than DD. the EA is killing the account.

dont worry men... your floating is your profit... no need stop loss...

u must have true money management...
  • #216
  • May 15, 2012 4:52am May 15, 2012 4:52am
Quoting charvo
Hi, pipster, with all due respect, i have exact opposite view. the correlation could be gone, and forever gone. hence the DD could be more and more and never recover.

1st thing is that we need to admit it is actually trading EURGBP, if anyone can prove me it is NOT, I'll be so grateful and award him $100 thru paypal.

2nd thing is that looking at EURGBP, as you said, if eur is doomed, then it goes down all the way, then all "buy eurusd sell gbpusd" positions will sink to bottomless hole too.
Hi, Charvo. I think that correlation can never disappear. In essence, EUR, GBP and CHF are same currency, only with different names. I agree that trading EURUSD/GBPUSD is trading EURGBP but with to big differences: volatility and volume.
1. Volatility: when trading EU/GU you are trading 3 currencies, while when trading EG you are trading only 2. When they move, they move based on economy each represent, but also they move in a relation to each other. Therefore, EU/GU will "jump up and down" far more than EG.
2 Volume: there is far more money and traders involved in EU/GU than in EG, which will have them move at different speed and direction, especially in short-term. Overall, on long term, EG will reflect EU/GU movement, but we are interested in short-term discrepancies to make money.
This is just my opinion, I could be wrong and I welcome anyone's insight on this. I hope it helps a bit, Charvo.
  • #217
  • May 15, 2012 4:53am May 15, 2012 4:53am
Quoting paulss
I believe this EA can perform very good if the currency pair are highly correlation, the reason why we have large DD recently, because EU and GU are not in highly correlation.
please see this correlation chart in difference period.
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/currency-correlation
http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/01-01-correlation

I found there are 2 set pair they are highly correlation.
1. AUDUSD/NZDUSD (almost over 90% in 1 week over to 1 year period)
2. EURUSD/USDCHF (it is negative correlation but have highly...
Yes...Aud/nzd is good..

1stly u must repair this EA... even AUDUSD/NZDUSD also can kill u because orphans order and no close all..
  • #218
  • May 15, 2012 5:36am May 15, 2012 5:36am
For those who want see multi pair in 1 chart, you can use FXCM trading station, then open a chart and you can add other currency in a single chart, very easy and fast. you can open a demo in FXCM.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-gu.jpg Size: 69 KB
  • #219
  • Edited 6:19am May 15, 2012 6:07am | Edited 6:19am
Quoting paulss
For those who want see multi pair in 1 chart, you can use FXCM trading station, then open a chart and you can add other currency in a single chart, very easy and fast. you can open a demo in FXCM.
Thanks for that Paul!

I am not finding the demo account link on their site thou - it would seem that you can only open a $50 micro account?
  • #220
  • Edited 7:02am May 15, 2012 6:50am | Edited 7:02am
Quoting burningmunke
Thanks for that Paul!

I am not finding the demo account link on their site thou - it would seem that you can only open a $50 micro account?
www.fxcm.co.uk
top menu bar select Trading Platforms Desktop Forex Trading
press Free Practice Account

fxcm.com or fxcm.co.uk both ok....select Practice Account
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