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  • #2,461
  • May 14, 2012 8:54am May 14, 2012 8:54am
Bought Ozzie @ nice 5m-demand, first target previous bar lows @ 9972
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Pipcrawler
  • #2,462
  • May 14, 2012 9:10am May 14, 2012 9:10am
Quoting xmzhang
Bought Ozzie @ nice 5m-demand, first target previous bar lows @ 9972
And yes, stopped out on my remaining position @ BE @#$!*& ..........
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Pipcrawler
  • #2,463
  • May 14, 2012 10:04am May 14, 2012 10:04am
Quoting xmzhang
And yes, stopped out on my remaining position @ BE @#$!*& ..........
In hindsight I realize what I've overlooked in my analysis:
1. I overlooked a higher TF demand ie. daily demand, right below my 5m-demand
2. For price to move higher from my 5m-demand, that pivot low and an intermediate supply had to breached, the first bounce spiked and consumed that intermediate supply

Does this make sense ?
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Pipcrawler
  • #2,464
  • May 14, 2012 10:07am May 14, 2012 10:07am
Quoting Tyoon
The way I see it.. it was both a reaction and a new base for a new demand. This is stacking.

..
Tyoon,
I do see this stacking pattern quite often, however, am not sure of its significance or impact? Can u throw some light on this?

Quoting Tyoon
Does look CP'd. AU flagging too within a similar structure. Trying to keep some live play documentation on today's trades.

..
I see from your chart those few bars (which you indicate as CP) are having both lower AND upper wicks. Are they compressing to both upside and downside? What's this means?
  • #2,465
  • May 14, 2012 11:20am May 14, 2012 11:20am
Would I be right in thinking this is compressed? I would appreciate any comments.
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  • #2,466
  • May 14, 2012 11:47am May 14, 2012 11:47am
Quoting ppvp
Would I be right in thinking this is compressed? I would appreciate any comments.
yes , it is.

What made u buying there?

Regards,
Jonas
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #2,467
  • May 14, 2012 12:06pm May 14, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
yes , it is.

What made u buying there?

Regards,
Jonas
That's how I saw it. However this analysis could be completely wrong and if it is, I wouldn't mind someone correcting me.
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  • #2,468
  • Edited 1:03pm May 14, 2012 12:42pm | Edited 1:03pm
Question to IF, do you have a bellwether chart?

You shred up the charts and your 1min entries are immaculate, but I realize this is just for refinement. All time frames can give you perspective, but do you focus on a chart such as the 1hr and where important decisions have been made and then zoom on down?

Edit: I know you look at all timeframes, just do you give precedence to one over the other?
  • #2,469
  • May 14, 2012 1:00pm May 14, 2012 1:00pm
On this one hour chart a reasonable decision has been made to breakdown. On the one minute you can see the zone I think should be strong supply. HTF showing room to move down.

On correlation analysis GU did not break an important HTF level, but it had compressed down, so price shot up today to the last important HTF supply and tomorrow I would expect a decision to break.

I am using more confident language instead of the I thinks because if I am wrong, well I will just get back in there and see what happened.

It is definitely all about decisions, and on the higher timeframe a 'decision to break' a level is very important. The lower timeframes, often giving you multiple chances to get right in there.
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  • #2,470
  • May 14, 2012 1:45pm May 14, 2012 1:45pm
Quoting fxfury
Question to IF, do you have a bellwether chart?

You shred up the charts and your 1min entries are immaculate, but I realize this is just for refinement. All time frames can give you perspective, but do you focus on a chart such as the 1hr and where important decisions have been made and then zoom on down?

Edit: I know you look at all timeframes, just do you give precedence to one over the other?
Kind of a difficult question to answer really, since an holistic view of PA is what we really strive to achieve.

But if pushed to choose my favourite TF to watch for M1 entries, it would be a close call between H4 and D1.

In reality though, I'm still a scalper, and just drop in and out of the market to take the quick and guaranteed pips
  • #2,471
  • May 14, 2012 1:56pm May 14, 2012 1:56pm
Quoting xmzhang
In hindsight I realize what I've overlooked in my analysis:
1. I overlooked a higher TF demand ie. daily demand, right below my 5m-demand
2. For price to move higher from my 5m-demand, that pivot low and an intermediate supply had to breached, the first bounce spiked and consumed that intermediate supply

Does this make sense ?
Makes perfect sense!

It's just the same on M1 as on W1
  • #2,472
  • May 14, 2012 3:58pm May 14, 2012 3:58pm
Quoting Ifmyante
Makes perfect sense!

It's just the same on M1 as on W1
Thank you very much my good friend. Scrolling through my charts, I'am trying to analyse in hindsight the dynamics of price-movement as displayed on my charts. Today the price action on U/J caught my attention, lemme explain:

In the 1H-TF on may the 4th a strong BEOB broke a pivot low, which had quite some history. Today price revisited that break, so now zooming into a 5m-TF, there was a nice RBD-supply, price spiked it twice consuming all its supply then afterwards price decides via a RBR to break that supply and went straight to our higher TF level where we see a 2 bar reversal, price was held up slightly at the RBR-demand (decision point), broke it and revisited that demand now acting as supply and thereby generating a beautifull HnS. First target would be the demand zone where the upmove of the HnS started, price got there and price decides to break this demand via a RBR. Price stall at the left eye of a 2-day PB where it finds support.
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Pipcrawler
  • #2,473
  • May 14, 2012 6:34pm May 14, 2012 6:34pm
Can you explain to me why this demand level did not have more of a reaction.

I can see that decision to move down had been made, but it just seems like it should have gotten a bigger reaction.

I am starting to see levels act as blocking factors, and maybe too many levels and blocking factors had come in as price made a laborous journey down.
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  • #2,474
  • May 14, 2012 6:49pm May 14, 2012 6:49pm
Quoting fxfury
Can you explain to me why this demand level did not have more of a reaction.

I can see that decision to move down had been made, but it just seems like it should have gotten a bigger reaction.

I am starting to see levels act as blocking factors, and maybe too many levels and blocking factors had come in as price made a laborous journey down.
Well, it did give a nice reaction, quickly spiking the flag above.

Here's a note for when you're analysing price history. Keep something like this (http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/monthly-economic-calendar/2012/05/01/) handy, in case you see any anomalies
  • #2,475
  • May 14, 2012 6:59pm May 14, 2012 6:59pm
Quoting fxfury
Can you explain to me why this demand level did not have more of a reaction.

I can see that decision to move down had been made, but it just seems like it should have gotten a bigger reaction.

I am starting to see levels act as blocking factors, and maybe too many levels and blocking factors had come in as price made a laborous journey down.
I believe market sentiment often overwhelms supply/demand zones. Fundamentals tend to initiate the move then the technicals help us trade along with it. In this case the down trend prevailed so I would have been skeptical of any "long-lasting" long trades. Last week I got killed on AU trying to call longs off demand. It kept breaking demand all day long. Frustrating. So for now I'm taking trade along with what seems to be current sentiment.
  • #2,476
  • May 14, 2012 7:02pm May 14, 2012 7:02pm
Quoting ppvp
That's how I saw it. However this analysis could be completely wrong and if it is, I wouldn't mind someone correcting me.
that's nice. Check this site (http://www.nobrainertrades.com) out and look for the stuff they do on liquidity gaps. Reminds me of this trade bigtime.
The basic concept of it is that those large poles pretty much always get revisited. Another confluence. If you cant find it, i'll dig it out for you. Some kind soul pointed me there, so i must return the favour
  • #2,477
  • May 14, 2012 7:48pm May 14, 2012 7:48pm
Quoting beebolbod
that's nice. Check this site (http://www.nobrainertrades.com) out and look for the stuff they do on liquidity gaps. Reminds me of this trade bigtime.
The basic concept of it is that those large poles pretty much always get revisited. Another confluence. If you cant find it, i'll dig it out for you. Some kind soul pointed me there, so i must return the favour
Ah yes.

http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2011/05/liquidity-gaps-and-spike-removals.html

http://vimeo.com/26338496

This is probably what you meant. NBT was actually the reason I embarked on the PA journey that led me to PIE. I remember Emene also posted these videos a couple of times.
  • #2,478
  • May 14, 2012 8:58pm May 14, 2012 8:58pm
Hi everyone!

Can anyone help me find the reason why price dropped so quickly at the 0.9978 area on AUDUSD? I can't find the exact decision that caused it. I thought it was going to drop from the area where I drew the blue rectangle, but the reaction was weak and it kept on compressing and then turned where it did. (The move happened 30 minutes before news.)
Thank you,

Helena

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  • #2,479
  • May 14, 2012 9:06pm May 14, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting helenaberg
Hi everyone!

Can anyone help me find the reason why price dropped so quickly at the 0.9978 area on AUDUSD? I can't find the exact decision that caused it. I thought it was going to drop from the area where I drew the blue rectangle, but the reaction was weak and it kept on compressing and then turned where it did. (The move happened 30 minutes before news.)
Thank you,

Helena

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Hey.

This is what I can make of this. Hopefully a senior member will shed some light on it as well.
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  • #2,480
  • May 14, 2012 10:43pm May 14, 2012 10:43pm
Quoting ppvp
That's how I saw it. However this analysis could be completely wrong and if it is, I wouldn't mind someone correcting me.
cool stuff P.
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