Some nice charting + analysis in this little trafficed thread.
Just in terms of a recap, Monday saw the move down, then resulted in turnaround Tuesday yesterday, culminating to the (Wednesday) crucial 1250 level at just before 10:25am London time, or 5:25am NY time.
I see others are using cumulative delta here, and wanted to post what happened at that crucial 1248/1250 level, in terms of buying and selling, resulting in a top and turnaround: 1249 was a buying climax IMHO, with significantly increased volume on both sides.
Here is the volume ladder view of that move up. It is fascinating to me to see that buyers actually outnumber sellers by a smidge: check how on most levels of that Wide Range Bar there's a few more buyers EXCEPT at that 'fat' 1248 area (check the next candle too) - this is the battle level - there is actually even more buying at the top of that 5:30 close candle. Note that candle has buyers overall outnumbering (744 COT); this is the culmination of the buying climax, but, not enough continued buying - meaning sellers stepped up en mass in that WRB candle too (even though buying COT was +7653). Thus, the buying climax ends, some buyers are trapped, and the down move begins. Note, you can see the average 1-2.5 point buyer's stops triggered down around 1245. Fascinating, and textbook stuff (as was the resistance value of the 1250 level), but, alas I was in my North American bed at the time.
As of 10:30am NY time, ES has found support at the 1226ish support zone, aided by the confluence of DPP being just below here, as well as yesterday's VWAP. Normally, the post 10am NY period is just a lot of treading water, until 2pm comes around - it's looking like today may be one of those days.
Just in terms of a recap, Monday saw the move down, then resulted in turnaround Tuesday yesterday, culminating to the (Wednesday) crucial 1250 level at just before 10:25am London time, or 5:25am NY time.
I see others are using cumulative delta here, and wanted to post what happened at that crucial 1248/1250 level, in terms of buying and selling, resulting in a top and turnaround: 1249 was a buying climax IMHO, with significantly increased volume on both sides.
Here is the volume ladder view of that move up. It is fascinating to me to see that buyers actually outnumber sellers by a smidge: check how on most levels of that Wide Range Bar there's a few more buyers EXCEPT at that 'fat' 1248 area (check the next candle too) - this is the battle level - there is actually even more buying at the top of that 5:30 close candle. Note that candle has buyers overall outnumbering (744 COT); this is the culmination of the buying climax, but, not enough continued buying - meaning sellers stepped up en mass in that WRB candle too (even though buying COT was +7653). Thus, the buying climax ends, some buyers are trapped, and the down move begins. Note, you can see the average 1-2.5 point buyer's stops triggered down around 1245. Fascinating, and textbook stuff (as was the resistance value of the 1250 level), but, alas I was in my North American bed at the time.
As of 10:30am NY time, ES has found support at the 1226ish support zone, aided by the confluence of DPP being just below here, as well as yesterday's VWAP. Normally, the post 10am NY period is just a lot of treading water, until 2pm comes around - it's looking like today may be one of those days.
