Simple logical trades | Forex Factory

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Simple logical trades

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jun 13, 2012 11:19am May 11, 2012 6:45am | Edited Jun 13, 2012 11:19am
Hi all!

This is the high probability simple logical trade.It combines/cover with Elliott Wave Theory, Statistics Analysis, Channel Trendline, Breakout, Ranging, Trending and volatility trend behaviour......

According to my statistics analysis. Day-to-day price behaviour for trending/breakout is happening so frequently. Therefore, price will form either in rising or dropping channel pattern and maintain in 2 week duration.

Long & Short Setup
1. Connect 2 successive low/high to form trendline
2. Fibonacci Retracement
3. Confluence zone - To depict target and next entry
4. MACD - To depict divergence
5. Zigzag - To depict clearly wave

Product: EURUSD
Time frame: 4H
MACD: 12,30,1 close
Zigzag 0.01 close

Explanation of Statistics Analysis Chart(Case Occupancy %)
Trending = Price will breakout either resistance or support only with holding the other side of support/resistance
Ranging = Price will stay inside support & resistance
Expand = Price breakout/expand support & resistance with upward and downward together
Breakout = Trending + Expand


Sorry for not updating the latest trade here. I will post the trade soon. Meanwhile, i will re-adjust this thread to provide and update more information in details.

>>> Will update this thread with more information soon !!! <<<
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  • #2
  • May 12, 2012 5:10am May 12, 2012 5:10am
Quoting Fx2ProTrader
Hi all!

According to my statistics analysis. Day-to-day price behaviour for trending/breakout is happening so frequently. Therefore, price will form either in rising or dropping channel pattern and maintain in 2 week duration.

Long & Short Setup
1. Connect 2 successive low/high
2. Wait price break trendline
3. Confirm with divergence

Time frame: 4H
MACD: 12,23,1


Would like to hear your comment!
hello darren

please can you explain in more details

1/ how you build generate your statistics

2/ more precise entry point ( price/time ) Zoom on it

thanks
BROKENGLISH
  • #3
  • Edited May 13, 2012 9:41am May 12, 2012 12:12pm | Edited May 13, 2012 9:41am
Statistics Analysis based on 7 years data. I spent long time to collect information and data to create this analysis system.

To explain in details, i separate 3 sections screenshot for how the trade's entry/stop/target.

Initial Entry
1. Price break trendline
2. Divergence occurs
3. Break previous minor Fibonacci retracement 61.8%

Thereafter Opportunity Entry >> Next screenshot below
1. FIbonacci Mirror wave retracement 50%
2. The 2nd successive points for trendline

Stop -Whichever options (Choose one to standardised)
1. 50 pips
2. Fibonacci extension 123.6%
3. Risk to reward ratio 1:2/3/4
4. Previous minor wave support/resistance (Recommended)

Target - 2 Opportunity
1. Fibonacci Retracement 61.8%
2. Previous minor wave support

Confluence zone -Yellow box
1. It is from Fibonacci Retracement 61.8% to previous minor support/resistance
2. This is crucial for next decision entry & target opportunity.


Please share your comments and ideas here.....!
Hope your could fine-tune my setup from better to best.


Please rate this thread if you like !
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  • #4
  • May 12, 2012 12:15pm May 12, 2012 12:15pm
The below screenshot is the "Thereafter Opportunity Entry"
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  • #5
  • May 12, 2012 12:53pm May 12, 2012 12:53pm
Very nice, I like it. One question, why use targets at all, why not just trail the stop loss/es behind the trendline and get the max from the the position?
  • #6
  • May 12, 2012 1:06pm May 12, 2012 1:06pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Very nice, I like it. One question, why use targets at all, why not just trail the stop loss/es behind the trendline and get the max from the the position?
Thanks !

Set target is for certainly trades to avoid sudden jump of price due to volatility. I concern about capturing of more target distant. Target distant setup is always farther than trailing stop loss distant, which price might reverse back to trigger trailing stop loss to cause minor unnecessary losing (Suppose to capture the earning - Distant from trailing stop to target)
  • #7
  • May 12, 2012 1:14pm May 12, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting Fx2ProTrader
Thanks !

Set target is for certainly trades to avoid sudden jump of price due to volatility. I concern about capturing of more target distant. Target distant setup is always farther than trailing stop loss distant, which price might reverse back to trigger trailing stop loss to cause minor unnecessary losing (Suppose to capture the earning - Distant from trailing stop to target)
I understand but how do you know you are taking profit at the optimum level rather than letting the trade run? Try it on a strategy tester, instead of taking profit at whatever levels you target trail the stop behind the 100 sma and see if it makes a difference.
  • #8
  • Edited 9:33am May 13, 2012 9:13am | Edited 9:33am
Price will tend to reverse after few days of rising/dropping trend in order to have a correction wave.

According to my statistics analysis, trending behaviour for 1-to-1 day happens more frequent than 4-to-1 day comparison. Conversely, ranging behaviour for 1-to-1 day happens less frequent than 4-to-1 day comparison.
1-to-1 day = Yesterday compare to today
4-to-1 day = Previous 4 days compare to today

Therefore, i would rather not to use trailing stop loss because correction wave will appear. And i prefer to capture the intended target for the long run.

I am going to develop a "Wave Statistics Analysis System. And will provide the details explanation for setting a high probability target from the judgement of Fibonacci Retracement/Extension level %. At the same time, this also can explain that trend will have high probability correction/reversal pattern in which time frame.
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  • #9
  • May 14, 2012 10:54am May 14, 2012 10:54am
EurUsd continue going down 1 more percent to get complete total 4%(1.2709) in this month. So just wait to buy @4% or follow the down trend to target.
BullShit BearShit
  • #10
  • May 16, 2012 12:06am May 16, 2012 12:06am
Bingo.. EurUsd hit -4%(1.2709) of the month, today, hehehe....
BullShit BearShit
  • #11
  • May 16, 2012 8:53am May 16, 2012 8:53am
Hi Guys,

Can anyone explain in pure British, US, French or German what the hell you're talking about; and not in canned notes to some non-existent human/entity.

Herty
  • #12
  • May 16, 2012 2:15pm May 16, 2012 2:15pm
Quoting herty
Hi Guys,

Can anyone explain in pure British, US, French or German what the hell you're talking about; and not in canned notes to some non-existent human/entity.

Herty
It's all perfectly simple... when the Fibonacci mirror wave retracement lines up and the case occupancy % is at the optimum level then you flip a coin and buy for heads or sell for tails.
  • #13
  • May 20, 2012 8:47am May 20, 2012 8:47am
It is funny that this system attracts almost no attention as I think it is a very simple and logical system to trade and can be very efective managed properly with discipline and a little discretion.
  • #14
  • May 21, 2012 7:01am May 21, 2012 7:01am
Quoting silberFX
It is funny that this system attracts almost no attention as I think it is a very simple and logical system to trade and can be very efective managed properly with discipline and a little discretion.
Hi! Thanks your comments.
For your info that i posted this treads just 2 week ago.
Yes. This is really simple system and i noticed it always repeating ,this trend behaviour. Appreciate that if you have better ideas on how to improve this..
  • #15
  • Edited 5:53am May 22, 2012 1:17am | Edited 5:53am
This is the continued post from May 2012 onward.
Now the trend turns into trending behavior from previous ranging scenarios.

Measurement of Fibonacci for trending behavior
1. Take previous minor support as Fibonacci level 100%
2. Take the recently swing high as Fibonacci level 0%


Awaiting for incoming signal......
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  • #16
  • Jun 13, 2012 8:51am Jun 13, 2012 8:51am
Quoting Fx2ProTrader
Hi all!

This is the high probability simple logical trade.It combines/cover with Elliott Wave Theory, Statistics Analysis, Channel Trendline, Breakout, Ranging, Trending and volatility trend behaviour......

According to my statistics analysis. Day-to-day price behaviour for trending/breakout is happening so frequently. Therefore, price will form either in rising or dropping channel pattern and maintain in 2 week duration.

Long & Short Setup
1. Connect 2 successive low/high to form trendline
2. Fibonacci Retracement
3. Confluence...
Very good analysis.If you dont mind me asking how do you calculate the Case Occupancy percent?
  • #17
  • Jun 13, 2012 10:33am Jun 13, 2012 10:33am
Quoting olsen-yersen
Very good analysis.If you dont mind me asking how do you calculate the Case Occupancy percent?
According to the statistical analysis, i have re-adjusted and upgraded my old analysis system. So there are more information now. Meanwhile, i will re-adjust my thread here in order to provide more information in details.

Explanation of case occupancy
Past period X compare to current period for one time frame, whereby X is integer and time frame is hourly/daily/weekly etc.

Example: Apply daily period to calculate the comparison.
Yesterday to current day relationship, (-1) days to current day relationship and (-2),(-3)......(-X). Whereby X is numbers of days and (-) is looked back period. Trend will become more ranging than trending if more (-X) days is involved.

I would like post some analysis for weekly trend behavior here.
The screenshot from top to bottom is (-1) to (-5) Weekly to current week relationship.
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  • #18
  • Jun 13, 2012 10:50am Jun 13, 2012 10:50am
Quoting Fx2ProTrader
According to the statistical analysis, i have re-adjusted and upgraded my old analysis system. So there are more information now. Meanwhile, i will re-adjust my thread here in order to provide more information in details.

Explanation of case occupancy
Past period X compare to current period for one time frame, whereby X is integer and time frame is hourly/daily/weekly etc.

Example: Apply daily period to calculate the comparison.
Yesterday to current day relationship, (-1) days to current day relationship and...
Thank you , I have found the pdf file you attached in one of your posts very helpful.One last question how do you determine the probability percent?Many thanks.
  • #19
  • Edited 11:23am Jun 13, 2012 11:08am | Edited 11:23am
Quoting olsen-yersen
Thank you , I have found the pdf file you attached in one of your posts very helpful.One last question how do you determine the probability percent?Many thanks.
The PDF file is the old version. I am going to revised the analysis report based on my current upgraded statistical analysis and will post soon.

Probability is based on the logic movement of trend.
Example: 0.50% OH (Open to High distant), whereby trend for the period will absolutely go upward and form OH distant.

Formula
Probability % = 100 -[Cumulative of frequency % for each level of range from open]
A Range's frequency = Sum[Frequency of OH Distant %]
OH Distant % = (High price - Open price)/Open price
  • #20
  • Jun 13, 2012 11:44am Jun 13, 2012 11:44am
"Frequency of OH Distant %", what does it mean? How do you calculate the frequency?

"Cumulative frequency", what does it mean? A sum?

Otherwise it is hard to figure out your post, except I'm guessing you say it works well.

Thanks,
P

BTW. OH Distant seems to be in some way a range, isn't it?
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