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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #1,521
  • May 12, 2012 6:25am May 12, 2012 6:25am
Quoting gvninvest
hi Assange,
I have a questions.
I understand you took a trade on 1, 2 & 3,
but is there any reason you didnt take 7?

thanks,
Thank You for a very good & valid question. ) Please don't ask indy coz I'm amazed with lot of request from new traders who believe Indy will improved their trading.

Let me illustrate the bigger picture for trading sucessfully.

First Chart (au), normally posted in this Forum to help new traders to get the feel and understand of the price movement. In fact, there is TWO CT trades which is not VALID marked with thick Green line.I've made some explation notes in the Chart as an answer. Hope it clarify things.

Now for Bonus answer :

When I trade, Charts I'm using are diffrent than the one I posted. ( See Chart au1) This is how I trade. I use minimum indicators on charts. I like to keep my chart simple by reading the candlestick, watching the price action, and drawing resistance lines. In addition, look at HIGHER Time Frame.
( Sorry Arjun no mean to undermine your effort to help others- but in this forum, I used indy to help new traders to develop and mature their skill slowly and less painful ways)

The 200 EMA indicator does have an advantage of showing the trader's psychology of what they feel the currency price should be.

I hope new traders make an effort to learn faundemental of PA because those are BASIS of Forex surevival. ( Lower HIGH, Higher LOW etc...)Indicators are merely price action translate into visible form and easy understanding ( but they are all LAG).

It takes years to put indicators away ( just like putting CRUTCHES away for walking). Indy lagging price to charts. They really are just clouding over the important information, an indicator that visually represents past price movement is not going to tell you anything that you can’t already see from knowing how to analyze price action.

Honestly, Arjun has done great works to help others. His method is simple and reliable, but you will take fewer trade ( but very safe). I like his patience explaining and trading at the same time. Please, don't ADD new fancy indy to this method. He has done his part, now we have to do ours but following the correct path, not CORRECTING the path he had laid.

Notice, I eliminate Green TDI, in order new traders to focus at PA rather than TDI. Can anyone tell me what is the purpose of Green TDI ?. Eventually we all be looking only at PA to trade, but at the moment Indy stay to guide new traders.


I normaly will draw Trendline, look at S & R and Higher Time Frame to get clue, where the market are going.


Last, my advice to new traders remember that, Forex trading is all about spotting trends, coming up with a mathematical analogy and calculated risks.

To ARJUN, thanks a million giving me this opportunity to help others. With my Special Love

Assange
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,522
  • Edited 9:10am May 12, 2012 8:24am | Edited 9:10am
Quoting Hawki trader
Assange - I love your charts,I know mine are the same,but everything looks clearer on yours!
My first live trade with this system, took 15 pips @ NYO on EU/USD,
very narrow range today though?
Look forward to next week - thanks LE1 & all who post in here

hawki
I was hoping you like me more than my Charts. But I guess my Charts really attract guys.......

Coz of liking it I want to share this video with you, enjoy it.

" Practice, Learn, Rehease and Practice & Trade. "

Inserted Video
We are in control of our destiny but have no control over our fate.
  • #1,523
  • Edited 11:56am May 12, 2012 8:45am | Edited 11:56am
Thanks too, But I dont see the video, I am also female!
Julie

thanx for vid!
  • #1,524
  • May 12, 2012 9:38am May 12, 2012 9:38am
Quoting TRoias
I made 164.2 pips in EUR/GBP in my real account. downloaded your indicators to my metatrader4 demo acc. now checking your system..
thank you for your good indicate..

TRoias..
CONGRATULATIONS !!!! I'm amazed by your feat.

Mind Sharing with us the Chart and entry you made for others and me to learn.

Thank You
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,525
  • May 12, 2012 9:47pm May 12, 2012 9:47pm
TDI uses some of the most powerful indicators such as the RSI as well as other types of calculations to determine the trend and momentum of the pairs.

This indicator gives you the current situation of the pair you put it on and let you know whether a bull or bear situation.

This indicator can be used standalone, but it helps that you use other confirming indicators together with it such as fibos and trendlines EMAs.

Simple trend lines, whether drawn manually or created by moving averages, can be useful in reducing the role of speculation in analyzing price action.

If, for instance, a moving average of a certain period eg, the 200EMA provides an insurmountable barrier to the price action for a considerable time, the trader can use it as a naturally occurring trend line without worrying about the intricacies of technical analysis.

When such a barrier line is invalidated by the price action, the trader can regard this as a signal for a countertrend move.

Most importantly, the trader must avoid changing his tools constantly or seeking the best indicator, since this will only cause distraction.

The golden rule of technical analysis is to keep it simple. Even indicators of the same type are prone to creating conflicting signals, and there’s no reason to expect that false signals generated by a multitude of indicators can be combined to create a correct signal.

Since we will not know which indicator tells the truth until the price action confirms it, there’s little to be gained by compounding the uncertainty inherent in our analysis by adding to the noise in our data with more and more indicators.

Stick around, and learn more. Contribute and participate coz you will grow to become better Forex Traders in due time.

Salute to Arjun for his kind Effort ! ( Are you from the land of Bollywood ?)

Pat
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,526
  • May 12, 2012 10:33pm May 12, 2012 10:33pm
Quoting Assange
Thank You for a very good & valid question. ) Please don't ask indy coz I'm amazed with lot of request from new traders who believe Indy will improved their trading.

Let me illustrate the bigger picture for trading sucessfully.

First Chart (au), normally posted in this Forum to help new traders to get the feel and understand of the price movement. In fact, there is TWO CT trades which is not VALID marked with thick Green line.I've made some explation notes in the Chart as an answer. Hope it clarify things.

[b][u]Now for Bonus answer...
Hello Assange,,

Finally I'm happy that there is someone out there to help fellow traders.I like your spirits and your passion to share what you have learnt not lot of people would do that....we see only handful of traders in forums like this.very little come and explain their methods here.most of them are out there making big bucks with what they have discovered.trust me selfish brothers/sisters....The person who learnt with me never shares his indicators even to me till today.Generous folks like Assange and others contribute to this thread.you are free to change the indy to however you want as long as its helping others to be succesful.


Please continue with your work.much appreciated.every point was well explained.
Let all the living things live blissfully
  • #1,527
  • May 12, 2012 10:47pm May 12, 2012 10:47pm
A Repetition and Recap what we have gone thro'.


TDI uses indicators such as the RSI as well as other types of calculations to determine the trend and momentum of the pairs.
At glance, TDI gives you the current situation of the pair knows whether PA in a bull or bear situation.
It can be used standalone, it is advised to use other confirming indicators together with it. Leading indicators such as fibos, trendlines, S & R should do good.

The Indicator Parameters are as follows:

RSI_Period (default = 13) — the period in bars for calculation of RSI.
RSI_Price (default = MODE_CLOSE) — the price type to use in RSI calculation.
Volatility_Band (default = 34) —the parameter for volatility band calculation. (Can be between 20 and 40. The lower this value is the curvier becomes the band.)
RSI_Price_Line (default = 2) — the period of the first moving average (fast).
RSI_Price_Type (default = MODE_SMA) — the type of the first moving average.
Trade_Signal_Line (default = 7) — the period of the second moving average (slow).
Trade_Signal_Type (default = MODE_SMA) — the type of the second moving average.


Buy

BUY position when:

1. Green line is above red line
2. Both Green and Red line are above Yellow line
3. Yellow line is above 50 (Optional for long term/Must for short-term)

Sell

SELL position when:

1. Red line is above Green line
2. Both Red and Green lines are below Yellow line
3. Yellow line is below 50 (Optional for long term/Must for short-term)

NO trade

1. Do not enter a trade when the Green/Red lines are outside the Blue Line or very near to it... try to enter the trades as close to the Yellow line as possible.
2. Do not enter trade when the Blue lines (bands) are too narrow as it shows little volatility in the market.
3. TDI reaches 32 and 68 level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,528
  • May 12, 2012 11:13pm May 12, 2012 11:13pm
If you understand the above Charts well, it's going to be easy to understand PA by looking at the following Chart.

It's the same Chart, but view with HA Candle.

Train you eyes & Brain to look at Signal before taking trades.

Some of the Signal are FALSE. I will post picture on how Forex Traders believing a false signal and happily particiapte in the trades. (Next Post)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,529
  • May 12, 2012 11:18pm May 12, 2012 11:18pm
Hey Pat,

On your charts it all looks very juicy and tasty, easy 70pips as you labeled it.

However, in my grim reality. I see a candle that is too long a strong resistance area coming from H1 time frame, RN being very close to the trade. Not to mention trade is in between 200 and 800 EMA (against lovee's rules) and pair with a small volatility. In conclusion, very risky trade.

Just my two cents, maybe i'm being too negative and should bet harder

Elin
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,530
  • May 12, 2012 11:20pm May 12, 2012 11:20pm
I was one of those !!!! lol

Have a Great Week ahead.

Smile
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,531
  • May 12, 2012 11:31pm May 12, 2012 11:31pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
TDI uses some of the most powerful indicators such as the RSI as well as other types of calculations to determine the trend and momentum of the pairs.

This indicator gives you the current situation of the pair you put it on and let you know whether a bull or bear situation.

This indicator can be used standalone, but it helps that you use other confirming indicators together with it such as fibos and trendlines EMAs.

Simple trend lines, whether drawn manually or created by moving averages, can be useful in reducing the role of speculation...
Hello PAT...thank you for your kind words.the explanation about TDI and the Price was excellent..I'm sure lot of people here are learning.please continue with your great work.im from bollywood country lol
Let all the living things live blissfully
  • #1,532
  • May 12, 2012 11:48pm May 12, 2012 11:48pm
Quoting El1n
Hey Pat,

On your charts it all looks very juicy and tasty, easy 70pips as you labeled it.

However, in my grim reality. I see a candle that is too long a strong resistance area coming from H1 time frame, RN being very close to the trade. Not to mention trade is in between 200 and 800 EMA (against lovee's rules) and pair with a small volatility. In conclusion, very risky trade.

Just my two cents, maybe i'm being too negative and should bet harder

Elin
Thank you for you comment. I appreciate it.

My series of posting is not about giving fish to traders, but to teach them how to fish. Why I choose CJ instead of EU ?. I want traders to train their eyes looking a erractic pairs and understand PA.

I personally don't trade this pairs, but I always train and rehease looking at other charts to improve skills.

No, you're not Negative, in fact you're very pratical about this CJ pair (small volatility). And I agree with you that this is very risky trade ( with SL set @ Yesterday Low and Last Low @ 25 pips).

Everyday we see traders see differently on thing. Some see it's too dangerous to touch it, but some see as saviour. But the sign always makes us confuse, ( see attachment) Through training you will prevail.

Thank You again and hope to learn something new from Fellow traders in this Forum.
Attached Image
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,533
  • May 13, 2012 12:03am May 13, 2012 12:03am
Hi LoveEvery1,

Many thanks for sharing your Forex experiences and your philosophy. I am new to the world of Forex (6 months) and have already burnt my accounts and fingers as well. I came across this forum and found it extremely interesting, warm and friendly and hope to learn from your experiences.

Sincere thanks to the other members for sharing their experiences. Having read through these pages, I analysed my previous trades and I noticed all my faults.
  • #1,534
  • May 13, 2012 12:56am May 13, 2012 12:56am
Quoting El1n
Hey Pat,

On your charts it all looks very juicy and tasty, easy 70pips as you labeled it.

However, in my grim reality. I see a candle that is too long a strong resistance area coming from H1 time frame, RN being very close to the trade. Not to mention trade is in between 200 and 800 EMA (against lovee's rules) and pair with a small volatility. In conclusion, very risky trade.

Just my two cents, maybe i'm being too negative and should bet harder

Elin
Hello El1n...look at the distance between the 800ema and 200ema.i have taken plenty of that.but never posted them as its risky.the price tend to bounce off them if they are less distance.it might be risky for new traders.
Let all the living things live blissfully
  • #1,535
  • Edited 1:40am May 13, 2012 1:27am | Edited 1:40am
Quoting loveevery1
THis is how i look at the chart.It has very high probability to break that support line.The price has touched the yellow line twice and has bounced twice and the second touch did not reach the previous high(yellow line).

the price has hit the botton red line 3 times recently it was tryin to break that levelo 3 times...its tryin to break that level.nothing is 100% sure in forex..one news can change the whole story.but if that doesnt happen this is what the chart is telling me.lets watch in the coming days...

note:this is a day chart.
remember this ? folks.it finally broke that support line..

Greece exit:::

US bank Citigroup now reckons there is a 75% chance that Greece will pull out of the single currency within the next 18 months. This would set a precedent, and the eurozone could quickly unravel if other vulnerable members like Spain and Italy were to follow suit.

The fallout from a Greek exit would quickly wipe 20% off Greece's GDP, send inflation soaring to 40%-50%, and see Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio soaring over 200%, say analysts at French bank BNP Paribas.

Both have some connections
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  • #1,536
  • May 13, 2012 1:47am May 13, 2012 1:47am
Quoting loveevery1
remember this ? folks.it finally broke that support line..

Greece exit:::

US bank Citigroup now reckons there is a 75% chance that Greece will pull out of the single currency within the next 18 months. This would set a precedent, and the eurozone could quickly unravel if other vulnerable members like Spain and Italy were to follow suit.

The fallout from a Greek exit would quickly wipe 20% off Greece's GDP, send inflation soaring to 40%-50%, and see Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio soaring over 200%, say analysts at French...
This is a day chart...do the same thing in the smaller timeframe(4hr/1hr).and take trades towards this direction on 15min...you got your 15 pips/day
Let all the living things live blissfully
  • #1,537
  • May 13, 2012 2:23am May 13, 2012 2:23am
look at same chart now..there were 2 singals according to the rules we have discussed.3rd april and 2nd may....if you had taken just those 2 signals it would have fetched you 200 pips for each trade...both are away from 200ema.and this is not a strict rule on HTFs..

Folks...its very simple.There are other ways i look at the chart i will discuss them when i get time.

And before i leave FF(forever)...i will tell a very simple secret through which you can donate lot of money to the charity.lol ...i will not reveal to everybody here in FF...only to genuine helping soul.lol...this is an order from the person who taught me FOREX
Let all the living things live blissfully
  • #1,538
  • May 13, 2012 2:47am May 13, 2012 2:47am
chart
Attached Image
Let all the living things live blissfully
  • #1,539
  • May 13, 2012 2:54am May 13, 2012 2:54am
I wish to illustrate scenario, where Trade fails.

He has done everything to follow the rules, but the trade fails. To avoid confusion, the trader will be me.

1. I opened 15 mins & 60 mins Chart of EA
2. at 0:200 pm I saw slight trendline break in 60 mins chart.(touching)
3. Trendline in 15 mins broken @ 0:100 pm.
4. Green TDI Cross RED @ 01:00 pm on 60 mins Chart. Good sign to Short.
5. Yellow TDi is sloping down on 15 mins. ( good sign to short)
6. Price is hoovering just above 200EMA ( in my mind, this sure will drop like bomb)
7. At 2:00pm I saw Green cross RED., Price below 7EMA on 15 mins Chart.
8. Wow, I hot SELL button, smiling & happy.
9. Clock 2:00 pm passed, 3:00pm, passed 4:00pm, passed 5:00 pm, tired and stuck. Shall I wait ? Shall I stop at loss ( -7-10 pips) ? Nah.... I wait.
10. At 5:15pm, I'm happy, price start to go down, +8 pips, Price goes below 200EMA. Yahooo. Happy happy.
11. At 5;30 pm, trend reverse?? 30 pips against my trade ??? words came out from my mouth . "$^&%#$^&"
12. At 5:45 pm. I saw price back down 12 pips. OK , the last moves was to catch traders with tight SL ( I think, I'm smarter than that)
13. At 6:00pm I was taken out - 30 pips. $*#^$.


Can anyone help me to analyse this trade. I was following all the Rules strictly by the book. Something wrong with this Forex Market & something wrong with this indicator ! Please participate coz by helping me you are actually helping yourself.

Can anyone help me to correct the Market & Indicator. But PLEASE don't correct me, because I follow strictly to the rules and Market & Indicator suck not me.

Thank you for you help.

Your Sincerely
ANGRY & UPSET TRADER
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,540
  • May 13, 2012 3:42am May 13, 2012 3:42am
Quoting Tradertpl
Hi Assange,

Learned a few important points from you for counter trend trade.
I googled and found Donchian indicator but without the centre line. Can you please post Donchian indicator with centre line? Thank you


Sorry for my late reply, coz busy with other things.

How do find the usefulness of Donchian Centreline ? Please share your experience for knowledge in using it.

If you really in depth of seeking knowledge want to be sucessful, I suggest please do some research and study of the usefulness of each indicators you use.

Please refer to the attached Chart. Tell me which line you want to use here. Infact when you asked for Donchian, TDI has already built in the indicator similar to that. Please read Pat's posting on TDI ( as stand alone indy).
TDI has got the property of RSI, Stochastics, MACD, TRIX, Bollinger Band, Donchian, Kijun Sen, Oscillators, ADX, Moving Averages and others that you will find out youself. ( You will be surprise !)

By adding more Indy you will fall into the trading trap of "analysis paralysis" with more technical indicators you need to consult before making a trading decision.
Remember, the forex market often moves quickly, especially when key technical indicators or chart patterns forecast important exchange rate movements. As a result, any unnecessary delay in entering the market can be quite costly and may even turn what would initially have been a winning position into a losing one.

My sincere advise, learn how to use the basic rules set by our big brother "Arjun" . coz he had laid very easy path to follow. We are just to learn, ractice this system and will work well if you really master it.

Good luck in your trading.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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