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Why do indicators not work/work? Why is Forex not truly random?

  • #41
  • May 10, 2012 4:26pm May 10, 2012 4:26pm
Quoting cuchuflito

Sounds great, wish you good luck...chances are : randomness, plus spread, plus poor position size, plus brokers cheating (latency, spikes, news, bad fills..etc..)...BINGO another winner for the House...and another loosing trader.
Problem is we loose money, and time which is far more precious..money you can recover, time never comes back.


Completely agree on the Time aspect, why I'm fairly balls to the wind and try a method learn from that and rewrite it / change it up atleast weekly until I find something with the performance I'm after.

Is this is that I switched to today ??? likely not from past history but for today it looks great.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #42
  • May 10, 2012 4:45pm May 10, 2012 4:45pm
Quoting 2george
Does anyone know of fractal channel indicator for MT4?
The attachment is an indicator from another format and the black lines are the fractal channel.
Thanks
George
Hey George. I don't know if this is what you asking for. I hope it is.
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Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Support-Resistance(Bary)_DrawLine.mq4   2 KB | 459 downloads
  • #43
  • May 10, 2012 6:33pm May 10, 2012 6:33pm
Quoting unknown4x
Most people like to think that way - probably because it is "cool". However bear in mind that the majority of this market is traded by algorithms. Algorithms don't trade off naked charts... (not that you cannot do it... it is not as clever though as a lot of retailers like to think). TA/Quant is no shortcut. It actually is _much_ more difficult than the fundamental or simple pure PA analysis that most people (try to) do. That is also the reason why everyone runs around shouting... naked charts only... ta for wannabies... fundamentals only... blah...
I find I struggle far more years with how to put TA, especially price action - close TA such as patterns,
together so they do well on the chart,
than learning the, or finding new, patterns themselves.

Not sure if I'll be smart enough to understand it enough.
Do you have some links to "real TA"?
Or are you merely referring to banks/corporations that break up the TA problem among dozens of highly-educated and -motivated people?
  • #44
  • May 10, 2012 6:49pm May 10, 2012 6:49pm
Quoting ha-pattern
I find I struggle far more years with how to put TA, especially price action - close TA such as patterns,
together so they do well on the chart,
than learning the, or finding new, patterns themselves.

Not sure if I'll be smart enough to understand it enough.
Do you have some links to "real TA"?
Or are you merely referring to banks/corporations that break up the TA problem among dozens of highly-educated and -motivated people?

Simplify people, Simplify!!

Okay if you've got nothing else going on you can trade a complicated system for a while, but the issue is the more complicated the stress it's going to put on you, it's going to wear you out, then you'll fail it.

Don't look for a complicated method is my advice on this.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #45
  • May 10, 2012 7:15pm May 10, 2012 7:15pm
Quoting Turveyd
Simplify people, Simplify!!

Okay if you've got nothing else going on you can trade a complicated system for a while, but the issue is the more complicated the stress it's going to put on you, it's going to wear you out, then you'll fail it.

Don't look for a complicated method is my advice on this.
Yes, I remember your same advice from a year or two ago.
I don't have a high-brow activity outside of trading, so it's actually very pleasant to learn new ways to draw up the chart.

But that doesn't make decisions on how to trade (them) any easier, so point, once again, taken.
Every time I try to simplify chart drawing, I think of something else that upsets the apple cart.
  • #46
  • May 10, 2012 7:20pm May 10, 2012 7:20pm
Quoting ha-pattern
Yes, I remember your same advice from a year or two ago.
I don't have a high-brow activity outside of trading, so it's actually very pleasant to learn new ways to draw up the chart.

But that doesn't make decisions on how to trade (them) any easier, so point, once again, taken.
Every time I try to simplify chart drawing, I think of something else that upsets the apple cart.

I keep over complicating it, cause I see stuff that works at times and could be handy then it all gets confused and I screw up, just re simplified it today again, much clearer and nicer.

I'll stop fiddling 1 day, must stop already method seems to work so must master trading it rather than look for the grail.

As you know i rarely draw anything, I did put 1 line on the Gold chart through the bottoms yesterday but that is it in the last year I suspect.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #47
  • May 10, 2012 7:55pm May 10, 2012 7:55pm
Algorithms work for exploiting a market inefficiency that exists 30 milliseconds before a bid hits the open market. Those opportunities are long gone once price prints, so are of no use for the average retail trader.

Either you have predator instinct as a trader or not. This comes by watching for weakness and pouncing on it when it's revealed. A computer generated wiggle that's unresolved until price has left an area isn't going to replace that. It's not that trading a naked chart is cool, it's that people who can't trade think a cool looking indicator is going to make them money. It takes years of hard work to trade properly. Putting your faith in technology to do the hard work for you isn't going to replace real learning or make you rich.

If indicators were grails, lots of people would be millionaires.

Quoting unknown4x
Most people like to think that way - probably because it is "cool". However bear in mind that the majority of this market is traded by algorithms. Algorithms don't trade off naked charts... (not that you cannot do it... it is not as clever though as a lot of retailers like to think). TA/Quant is no shortcut. It actually is _much_ more difficult than the fundamental or simple pure PA analysis that most people (try to) do. That is also the reason why everyone runs around shouting... naked charts only... ta for wannabies... fundamentals only... blah...
  • #48
  • May 10, 2012 8:26pm May 10, 2012 8:26pm
Quoting J B Collins
Algorithms work for exploiting a market inefficiency that exists 30 milliseconds before a bid hits the open market. Those opportunities are long gone once price prints, so are of no use for the average retail trader.

Either you have predator instinct as a trader or not. This comes by watching for weakness and pouncing on it when it's revealed. A computer generated wiggle that's unresolved until price has left an area isn't going to replace that. It's not that trading a naked chart is cool, it's that people who can't trade think a cool looking...
CORRECT!!!

Nanotrading, where they setup there servers in the same building as the exchange to get there quotes a millisecond faster than anyone else, this is the only kind of automated trading which is going on, I doubt it's used for Forex to unless Forex has a single central exchange where the worlds currencys are traded ??

Banks do not use EA's, they use Buy / Sell programs, to sneakily buy 1mil lots, or aggressively depending on the rules they setup, but that is it.

If they could use a EA, why pay traders millions in bonus's and all the other costs and support staff they need to function, pop to PC world buy cheap PC, load EA sorted!!

Indicators when made, where all made for 1 purpose, to be sold to make the creator money, most are so basic math's wise to put any faith in them is simply ridiculous.

My MA's work cause I'm merely going along with Buy / Sell programs, they have basic simple logic to, this single thing I believe gives us a none random element to exploit thankfully.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #49
  • May 11, 2012 2:01am May 11, 2012 2:01am
Prices continued in this range, point to point ,its not over complex ,the other pairs and indies telling us the same thing.

Infact if you can understand the range bound ,when market trends up or down to its next point you would stand a good chance to capture the whole move,remember most of us are intraday.
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  • #50
  • May 11, 2012 3:11am May 11, 2012 3:11am
Quoting KMidas
Hey George. I don't know if this is what you asking for. I hope it is.
This looks exactly what I was looking for - I'll test it live today and let you know.
Many Thanks
George
  • #51
  • May 11, 2012 4:07am May 11, 2012 4:07am
Thanks KMidas. It does exactly what is needed.
Regards
George
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf KMidas.pdf   30 KB | 599 downloads
  • #52
  • Edited 6:11am May 11, 2012 4:41am | Edited 6:11am
Quoting Turveyd
CORRECT!!!

Nanotrading, where they setup there servers in the same building as the exchange to get there quotes a millisecond faster than anyone else, this is the only kind of automated trading which is going on, I doubt it's used for Forex to unless Forex has a single central exchange where the worlds currencys are traded ??

Banks do not use EA's, they use Buy / Sell programs, to sneakily buy 1mil lots, or aggressively depending on the rules they setup, but that is it.

If they could use a EA, why pay traders millions in bonus's...
There are a few misconceptions there. Almost all of them are based on MAs so in essence most display the very same thing... Just in a different (not so good ) visual way. And don't get me wrong... I actually don't use any indicator besides a few MAs.

Of course the same building hosting is _widely_ used in Forex. It doesn't matter if its centralized or not. The big banks are not as powerful as you think. It's increasingly more difficult for them to get decent volume placed at decent prices. Part of the reason is simply what you described... HFTs front running them at various exchanges. Centralized or not doesn't matter shit. There are only a few where such volume can be exchanged. It's known and all provide same pipe length in house services like CME. Why do you think there are block trades available at CME? (and why traders are so pissed at them... no front running...)

Of course banks are doing algo/quant trading. Except for scaling back / closing of prop desks we are generally talking about 30-80% algo volume in most markets (stocks, equities etc, bonds picking up too) and about 16-20% in forex right now. That grows by about 3-5% a year right now.
  • #53
  • May 11, 2012 7:08am May 11, 2012 7:08am
- something stupid from me here/don't want the 99% getting smarter
  • #54
  • Edited 7:57am May 11, 2012 7:36am | Edited 7:57am
Here's some screenshots of a trade I posted earlier and a small pull back trade I took too. It's easier to show what I was trying to explain before than talk about it. I could post a progression of 100 charts in running order that are all equally logical and precise.

Turveyd, Personally I don't use MAs. I kept putting the 200ma on my chart and taking it off for 2 years and finally left it off because it wasn't necessary.

Drawing my lines manually while I'm trading keeps my attention on the charts. I'm constantly adding and removing levels, trendlines, and channels as price progresses. I think if people try this approach, they'll understand why it works. You get much more into the price action this way. I use 2 automated lines. One for open and close and one for swing high low. I could do these visually without an indicator but these are things that don't require calculaton on my part, so why bother. Forex may be chaotic sometimes, but it's never random, and indicators definitely aren't necessary to trade it properly.


Quoting Turveyd
CORRECT!!!

Nanotrading, where they setup there servers in the same building as the exchange to get there quotes a millisecond faster than anyone else, this is the only kind of automated trading which is going on, I doubt it's used for Forex to unless Forex has a single central exchange where the worlds currencys are traded ??

Banks do not use EA's, they use Buy / Sell programs, to sneakily buy 1mil lots, or aggressively depending on the rules they setup, but that is it.

If they could use a EA, why pay traders millions in bonus's...
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  • #55
  • May 11, 2012 8:00am May 11, 2012 8:00am
Quoting J B Collins
Here's some screenshots of a trade I posted earlier and a small pull back trade I took too. It's easier to show what I was trying to explain before than talk about it. I could post a progression of 100 charts in running order that are all equally logical and precise.

Turveyd, Personally I don't use MAs. I kept putting the 200ma on my chart and taking it off for 2 years and finally left it off because it wasn't necessary.

Drawing my lines manually while I'm trading keeps my attention on the charts. I'm constantly adding and removing levels and...

I've got a setup thread running feel free to share your line drawing method in there.

I don't have time for drawing lines mainly, I flick through my pairs 10 currently in 20seconds if I see something I like I think on it more and jump in generally or leave that chart on the screen and stalk it.

Need more screens, a 3rd likely 40" screen on the wall for constant charts is high on my list of needs.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #56
  • May 11, 2012 8:17am May 11, 2012 8:17am
Quoting Turveyd
I've got a setup thread running feel free to share your line drawing method in there.

I don't have time for drawing lines mainly, I flick through my pairs 10 currently in 20seconds if I see something I like I think on it more and jump in generally or leave that chart on the screen and stalk it.

Need more screens, a 3rd likely 40" screen on the wall for constant charts is high on my list of needs.
Thanks Turveyd.

I couldn't watch 10 pairs at once. My limit is 3. I trade EUR.USD, EUR.CAD, and EUR.JPY. (I currently have a EUR.CAD trade on. I was waiting on the break out on that pair since yesterday) I'm not good at multitasking and I trade for a living, so I when I put a trade on I have to do it with the greatest amount of certainty possible.

Live chart drawing does take a lot of work, but I have to admt, it really does pay off.
  • #57
  • May 11, 2012 8:36am May 11, 2012 8:36am
Quoting J B Collins
Thanks Turveyd.

I couldn't watch 10 pairs at once. My limit is 3. I trade EUR.USD, EUR.CAD, and EUR.JPY. (I currently have a EUR.CAD trade on. I was waiting on the break out on that pair since yesterday) I'm not good at multitasking and I trade for a living, so I when I put a trade on I have to do it with the greatest amount of certainty possible.

Live chart drawing does take a lot of work, but I have to admt, it really does pay off.

Good to here of people trading for a living, thats my plan and soon.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #58
  • May 11, 2012 9:13am May 11, 2012 9:13am
Quoting J B Collins
Thanks Turveyd.

I couldn't watch 10 pairs at once. My limit is 3. I trade EUR.USD, EUR.CAD, and EUR.JPY. (I currently have a EUR.CAD trade on. I was waiting on the break out on that pair since yesterday) I'm not good at multitasking and I trade for a living, so I when I put a trade on I have to do it with the greatest amount of certainty possible.

Live chart drawing does take a lot of work, but I have to admt, it really does pay off.
Same here. EU/AU/GU/AJ and that's it. The way i trade any major would do it but as long as you don't trade high timeframes its better to focus on a few pairs (actually i only focus on EU/AU and derive trades in GU/AJ from those two if certain things add up) and milk them. More quality, less SL, higher r:r this way. If you need more than 10 pips SL on the small tfs chances are you don't do your analysis deep enough. Too many crosses -> sloppy analysis on small tfs.
  • #59
  • May 11, 2012 9:22am May 11, 2012 9:22am
Quoting iDouble
------------------------------------------

An indicator based on what I call, Statistical Inertial Referencing, will typically have levels of trade accuracy that far exceed that of conventional Point-to-Point Data Referencing, which comprises just about 97% of all conventional TA on the market.
What is exactly Statistical Inertial Referencing?Self organized criticality?Bose–Einstein statistics?I'm throwing all the names if they stick on the pan
  • #60
  • May 12, 2012 4:55am May 12, 2012 4:55am
Here's some screenshots of a trade I posted earlier and a small pull back trade I took too. It's easier to show what I was trying to explain before than talk about it. I could post a progression of 100 charts in running order that are all equally logical and precise.

J b collins

COULDNT AGREE WITH THIS MORE,

many , are focussing on the wrong things,the inbetween bit,my label for this inbetween bit is randon,chaos.if we focus on this in the middle part indicators,brain maniacs,algos,ea,s,tape reading or whatever devise we can manafacture will always leave you mistified.

price travels in its chaotic unconformed way between two atractors,points.fact.ultimatly up or down.these 2 points of travel are visible within our charts.but not in any one moment of time.

in the larger scope of things ,the fundimentals are forseen ,within cycles that repeat for as long as man chooses to worship shiny objects.

intraday ,that has somwhat of an impact,thats why we need to watch the overall sentiment of irational behavour of ourselves not wanting to loose the only thing we have conditioned ourselves to believe in.shiny objects .

price only moves up or down between 2 points.dont trade the middle bit,follow the collective thought of more agressive shiny merchants.and it all becomes a lot more simple.

sorry but couldnt resist posting one last chart
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