No Reason To Own EUR

No Reason To Own EUR

From oanda.com

Markets trade in a cautious manner as investors digest the latest EFSF Greek disbursement numbers and Spain’s attempt to help its fourth largest Bank. Perception is everything and the EFSF program had no choice but to disburse some of the promised aid to a ‘headless’ Greece. It has released +EUR4.2b of the earmarked funds, holding back +EUR1b. No matter what is said and done, holding back of any funds will only anger Greek voters ahead of a potential election next month. After +EUR386b in aid pledges for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, +EUR214b in ECB bond buying and approximately another +EUR1t in low-interest ... (full story)

Comments / Top
Subscribe

May 10, 2012 8:31pm

Quoting Minde

Disliked

It looks like Big guys shooting with empty bullets, even big guns does not help.
Its funny to read that a lot of people predict 1.15 for euro within 3 months.

but i hope that it will go up,because i still have long position

Ignored

Hope - yeah you keep that hope as you watch your account get smaller and smaller.

Your Hope will cause your account to Change to the smaller.

Tw0eleven

May 10, 2012 7:52am

Permalink

Quoting clockwork71

Disliked

Uhhhh.......it was at 1.33 two weeks ago. It is at about 1.2960 right now. Sounds like selling is the way to go if my math works out???

Ignored

You're sounding like a position trader!

I guess it does really depends on what type of trader you are. I'm guessing most of the traders in here are day traders...so you should make money on longs and shorts. But if you are a position trader...holding short for a couple weeks was a good choice. As for swing traders...it's got to be painful to watch this stuff mostly range.

Trainman

May 10, 2012 8:02am

Permalink

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

Sounds to me like a very good reason to trade based on MN trend. Which is to say daily fluctuations rarely tell the story and for instance to turn the Euro "super tanker" around should take until it hits 1.25 or thereabouts before we start feeling the big guns turning. Makes a lot of sense to me.

Ignored

It's not quite as bad as you guys make it sound. Many times I've seen the market absorb 500 million Euros bid/offered in 3 to 5 seconds. The sheer size and liquidity of the Forex market is something to behold. It all depends on time of day and conditions though (you won't see this during the quiet times of the trading day).

But it's an excellent point, that the jumbo players have to use different strategies to get in and out of their trades. As far as I know it does not consist of publishing contrary news stories, but it does consist of being a bit ahead of the expected turning point of the market and placing limit orders where the market action would be expected to run squarely into them.

Trainman

May 10, 2012 4:04pm

Permalink

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

Sorry this is late for the trend of conversation but I am at a location where access can be disrupted anytime and frequently too either due to power cuts or the ISP fucking up. Look, I think this order flow issue is a real blind side - we really do take a lot of risk trading a market as opaque as the Forex. What you say may be right but how do you explain bank interventions e.g. BOJ and how it moves the markets? Also it is a big surprise to me that there is in fact no site or articles available explaining in simple language how order flow works...

Ignored

Hey, don't ask me, I'd like to know too. A few months back I was seeing massive bids/offers showing up on the Dukascopy JForex platform, on their depth of book display. That's where I was seeing the gigantic orders. But for the past three months no big orders have been showing up in the market depth. Dukascopy Support insist they have changed nothing, but it is clear they are filtering this stuff out now. Clearly we retail traders are on the bottom of the totem pole and some would prefer that we knew as little as possible. If anyone knows of another way of seeing the large orders in the depth of book, I'd like to know.

m1kz

May 10, 2012 4:05pm

Permalink

Don't be dumb blond, this article states the truth... but yes of course long-term truth...

Basically what will happen is the following scenario:
1) we update the 2912 low - grab the thv kids stops
2) fluctuate and boost on the dealers stopping volume
3) upward reverse approximately 300-400 pips (cud be less cud be more - depends on ff kids and all the other dummies orders) - the exact stopping point impossible to define now even by insiders... (all real-time depending on the crowd)
4) and only then the truthful oanda article combined with some other truthful crap will push down the euro 22-26 area - updating weekly/monthly pivots

GDR3k

May 10, 2012 7:08am

Permalink

So that means buy then, haha

Forexgain

May 10, 2012 7:27am

Permalink

Quoting Patraulea

Disliked

No reason to listen you...

Ignored

Exactly...

fxsport

May 10, 2012 8:28pm

Permalink

Quoting Guest

Disliked

No reason to Own USD

Ignored

Your personal bias will earn you one thing: losses.

Tw0eleven

May 10, 2012 7:03am

Permalink

No reason to own it, yet it still can't get any real momentum to the down side...even after breaking through 1.3000 it's stayed above 1.2900 all week long! haha What a joke these articles are!

dmegastar

May 10, 2012 7:22am

Permalink

Ranging of the Eur/Usd pair might soon see a breakout looking at the fundamentals/news. Then we may know if there is really NO REASON TO OWN THE EURO

Minde

May 10, 2012 7:11am

Permalink

It looks like Big guys shooting with empty bullets, even big guns does not help.
Its funny to read that a lot of people predict 1.15 for euro within 3 months.

but i hope that it will go up,because i still have long position

manniMe

May 11, 2012 2:29am

Permalink

Quoting fxsport

Disliked

Hope - yeah you keep that hope as you watch your account get smaller and smaller.

Your Hope will cause your account to Change to the smaller.

Ignored

Quoting fxsport

Disliked

Your personal bias will earn you one thing: losses.

Ignored

First - mind your own account. Second - you keep your USD, I'll keep my EUR.

oneightwenty

May 10, 2012 7:05am

Permalink

I miss two words from the headline: for you.
"No reason for FOR YOU to own EUR." You just short, and the big guns take your money. It's easy, isn't it?

clockwork71

May 10, 2012 7:13am

Permalink

Quoting oneightwenty

Disliked

I miss two words from the headline: for you.
"No reason for FOR YOU to own EUR." You just short, and the big guns take your money. It's easy, isn't it?

Ignored

Uhhhh.......it was at 1.33 two weeks ago. It is at about 1.2960 right now. Sounds like selling is the way to go if my math works out???

jonahky7

May 10, 2012 7:19am

Permalink

Quoting n_aftab

Disliked

since when did speculators ever care to own anything anyway all they care about is short term direction for a profit. Articles seem to be getting worse and worse on FF.

Ignored

I do know some speculators like myself go to disneyland with kids in lala land Paris - that's when I own Euro but dumped every single cents before I left

Just a dry Brit joke

jaygee

May 10, 2012 7:22am

Permalink

If you trade a very very large account and you are in a position, it takes a lot of time to get out of it. Larger account holders need a way to get speculators to buy or sell into their positions so they can get out. Hence these articles are born. Investors? lol. We are in canoes, they are in supertankers. A long time to turn them around. For me the more bearish i read, the longer i get.

Loadedgun

May 10, 2012 7:38am

Permalink

Quoting jaygee

Disliked

If you trade a very very large account and you are in a position, it takes a lot of time to get out of it.

Ignored

Sounds to me like a very good reason to trade based on MN trend. Which is to say daily fluctuations rarely tell the story and for instance to turn the Euro "super tanker" around should take until it hits 1.25 or thereabouts before we start feeling the big guns turning. Makes a lot of sense to me.

jaygee

May 10, 2012 8:06am

Permalink

If you make the turning point by your sheer size, it is a lot easier getting ahead of it.

This is the reason i trade 99% of the time eur/usd. It is easily the most fluid of all of the pairs and if you have to get out, you can.

Loadedgun

May 10, 2012 2:24pm

Permalink

Quoting Trainman

Disliked

It's not quite as bad as you guys make it sound. Many times I've seen the market absorb 500 million Euros bid/offered in 3 to 5 seconds.

Ignored

Sorry this is late for the trend of conversation but I am at a location where access can be disrupted anytime and frequently too either due to power cuts or the ISP fucking up. Look, I think this order flow issue is a real blind side - we really do take a lot of risk trading a market as opaque as the Forex. What you say may be right but how do you explain bank interventions e.g. BOJ and how it moves the markets? Also it is a big surprise to me that there is in fact no site or articles available explaining in simple language how order flow works (except academic papers and those are basically off point). For example, Sorros and guys like him (and there are plenty like them) remain in trade for months yet a days spike gets us all excited and we call it a rally or sell off - where does one go to get a fairly accurate mapping of what is really going on with order flow and what this really means?

Loadedgun

May 10, 2012 2:29pm

Permalink

Quoting Tw0eleven

Disliked

You're sounding like a position trader! I guess it does really depends on what type of trader you are.

Ignored

But do you agree that if one had the funds position trading makes a lot more sense than day trading in a market as volatile as the FX?

Loadedgun

May 10, 2012 7:56pm

Permalink

Quoting m1kz

Disliked

Don't be dumb blond, this article states the truth... but yes of course long-term truth...

Ignored

Due to this post I actually read the stuff - all this while I was just focused on this order flow thing (as distinguished from trade volume) and how to impound its information routinely. Hell the article is spot on - whats the scare that the Euro is not a traded currency subject to the normal technical indications of the market? Common that's a myth of day traders right in the midst of the biggest Euro downtrend you ever did see. This is what trying to read the market on a day to day basis does - keeps you guessing even when the answer stares you in the face.

toptrader11

May 10, 2012 7:26am

Permalink

You can not trade EUr based on the fundamental alone. Of course if the news is about Greece.... then that different story.

Patraulea

May 10, 2012 7:19am

Permalink

No reason to listen you...

May 10, 2012 7:15am

15 minute 200 sma.

May 10, 2012 7:15am

since when did speculators ever care to own anything anyway all they care about is short term direction for a profit. Articles seem to be getting worse and worse on FF.

manahil

May 10, 2012 7:18am

Permalink

Euro playing like cat playing with mouse...

Loadedgun

May 10, 2012 7:23am

Permalink

Quoting manahil

Disliked

Euro playing like cat playing with mouse...

Ignored

Hello manahil which way is cat and which way is mouse? Up or down?

Trader#1C1A

May 10, 2012 7:45am

Permalink

Quoting jaygee

Disliked

If you trade a very very large account and you are in a position, it takes a lot of time to get out of it. Larger account holders need a way to get speculators to buy or sell into their positions so they can get out. Hence these articles are born. Investors? lol. We are in canoes, they are in supertankers. A long time to turn them around. For me the more bearish i read, the longer i get.

Ignored

While this is true about big guys needing to fool little guys in order to enter and exit, I actually think that these articles are simply written by amateurs who can't trade for shi*.