EUR/AUD

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#157

#165

this is interesting pair, has potential to go UP

Anyone trading this pair currently?

Just opened a short @1.29001. Just a small one, but not costing me anthing to hold, got a lot of room to move with my SL so we'll see how this plays out.

Pair hasn't been above 1.29500 all year. Positive rollover + news in Europe lately/upcoming, what do you guys think?

A lot of bad news from Europe could cause EUR/AUD to be very bullish, so I'm not sure if this is the pair to try to short speculating on bad news from Europe. Also keep in mind Australian fundamentals are about as bad as it could get with mounds of debt and threats of more series of rate cuts coming. There's some serious possibility of more printing which further jeopardizes this currency, as RBA seems to want to devalue its currency for better building.

If we continue to see the bear market similar to late 2008-2009 when everything basically crashed, I think this pair will very likely fly to the sky. Selling in the short term may work, but not really recommended as a carry trade in my opinion.

Interesting points thanks for sharing, great first post I must say. Why is it that you think EUR bad news = good for EUR?

I'm short EURUSD too, so not really hoping for strength in the Aussie (obviously lacking looking at AUDUSD this week).

It seems the Gold is raising...so we will have today again a fall of the EUR/AUD pair...when i look back on the charts, it seems we will have a good fall of the pair today between 1:30pm - 4:30pm (GMT +2, Berlin-Ljubljana time)...i will look for the lowest possible buy here and go long...TP @ somewhere above 1.2990...in couple of days. Or maybe longer term @ 1.3150 Just my opinion...

Good luck to all!

Of course bad news for the euro is bad for the euro and will weaken it across the board, but the nature of the Australian dollar is that it relies heavily on commodity prices and risk trends, way more so than the euro. There's several reasons for this, several of them are:

1) Australia's proximity and reliance in the Chinese economy. Obviously not many things more indicative of risk trends than the biggest producers' demand for raw material, Australia plays a key role in distributing a big portion of these raw materials to China.

2) Gold prices. Australian dollar is highly correlated to gold prices, which move in different direction as the US dollar (more sharply than the euro).

3) Yield rates. Australian dollar carries the highest yield rate out of the major currencies (recently the rate was up at almost 5% before the series of rate cutes). Rate is around 3.75% now which is still easily at the top end of yield rates carried on by the major currencies. Compare this to the euro at 1% and US dollar benchmark rate at 0.25%, so when risk appetite picks up the Australian dollar would be the biggest benefactor over the euro.

So in many cases bad news from the eurozone that affects global economic fundamentals altogether is likely to be very bullish for EUR/AUD. And again, this is not always the case if you look at quarter 4 of last year, AUD/USD was actually fairly bullish despite EUR/USD setting new lows, but on a more day to day basis what I said should more or less hold true. Looks like this pair's broken sharply through the 1.29 resistance so I'd probably look to buy on dips and not really look to sell for awhile.

#188

#198

Hi guys,

Here's what I think about this pair. Anyone considering shorting it?



Visit my blog @ http://emppuedge.blogspot.com/2012/0...-analysis.html for more analysis

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This is my analysis.

This is my analysis.

Well, it did go up to 1.30 but if you look now, it is down to below 1.24

Interesting article ->

all-euro-uncertainty-heres-pair-some-clarity

pair at its historical low ever......

do you think it is the bottom...i hope it go up...i am long

hard to tell...it went all south basically since nov 2011 (apart from a couple of months this year) ... it should bounce back at some point

edit: on the larger picture (monthly chart) bears are in control since beginning 2009 -_-