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Successful Trading is about Techniques & Analysis

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited May 13, 2012 9:47am May 7, 2012 9:58am | Edited May 13, 2012 9:47am
Hi all!

I would like post here regarding some of my techniques and analysis skill for to be a successful trader either in full time or part time. This is so crucial because if one does not acquire the proper techniques and analysis, it is certainly hard to achieve the objective. In order to explain the market trend behaviour, one must do their substantial analysis as well. Therefore, his/her know how to set up a proper trading strategy based on the analysis evidences.


Would like to hear your ideas and comments here.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Techniques & Analysis.pdf   1.4 MB | 564 downloads | Uploaded May 13, 2012 9:46am
  • #2
  • May 8, 2012 8:35am May 8, 2012 8:35am
Hi Protrader,

I have read your pdf, but I don't understand how you trade.

On page 7, your entry is at open price, target is at 0.2% from open price, you say you have no stop loss and win $5148.75.

How do you calculate this $5148.75?

In you trade summary, you have 22% of the time get stop out... what does this mean? Do you have stop loss or no stop loss?
  • #3
  • May 8, 2012 8:42am May 8, 2012 8:42am
Quoting lithium1
Hi Protrader,

I have read your pdf, but I don't understand how you trade.

On page 7, your entry is at open price, target is at 0.2% from open price, you say you have no stop loss and win $5148.75.....

Please refer to page 6,which has already mentioned stop loss 0.75%, the 2 screenshot depicts the comparison of using different target distant.
  • #4
  • May 8, 2012 8:57am May 8, 2012 8:57am
Quoting Fx2ProTrader
Please refer to page 6,which has already mentioned stop loss 0.75%, the 2 screenshot depicts the comparison of using different target distant.
If I read correctly, for your long position,
462 times you hit stop loss of 0.75%
1492 times you take profit at 0.2%

if I assume 0.2% is 20pips, 0.75% is 75pips.

Stop loss, 462*75 = 34650

Profit, 1492*20 = 29840

Profit - stop loss = -4810

How do you get profit?
  • #5
  • May 8, 2012 9:44am May 8, 2012 9:44am
Quoting lithium1
If I read correctly, for your long position,
462 times you hit stop loss of 0.75%
1492 times you take profit at 0.2%

if I assume 0.2% is 20pips, 0.75% is 75pips.......


Ops! Sorry about the information given, i attached the wrong picture for this strategy. I need to have a look for all of the attached pictures.

Thanks for your comments! I will do an update soon.
  • #6
  • May 8, 2012 5:36pm May 8, 2012 5:36pm
Quoting Fx2ProTrader
Ops! Sorry about the information given, i attached the wrong picture for this strategy. I need to have a look for all of the attached pictures.

Thanks for your comments! I will do an update soon.
HAHA, by the way, one more thing regarding your entry, you need to consider spread as well, or brokerage fee if you are trading futures. Thanks.
  • #7
  • May 8, 2012 5:58pm May 8, 2012 5:58pm
Just had a quick look on your analysis again.

In Page 5, the probability of 0.2% for HO & OL are 61% and 59% respectively. And probability of 0.75% for HO & OL are between 16% to 20%.

That means 60% of the time you will win 0.2%, around 18% of the time you will lose 0.75% and get stop out.

If 0.2% is 20pips, 0.75% is 75pips, and assuming you trade 100 times.

Profit = 60*20 = 1200
Stop loss = 18*75 = 1350

P/L = 1200-1350 = -150

I have not include brokerage and spread yet. You still cannot make money.

Now in your page 7, your long position, how come you can hit your 0.2% target 72% of the time and hit 0.75% stop loss 14% of the time? It doesn't tally with the analysis you show on page 5?

I assume you entry 2 positions, 1 long entry at open, 1 short entry at open, and set your target at 0.2%, stop loss at 0.75% for both positions. If this is how you trade, what happen end of day if one of your position didn't hit 0.75% but losing 0.5%, do you close it?
  • #8
  • May 9, 2012 12:54am May 9, 2012 12:54am
Quoting lithium1
Just had a quick look on your analysis again.

In Page 5, the probability of 0.2% for HO & OL are 61% and 59% respectively. And probability of 0.75% for HO & OL are between 16% to 20%.

That means 60% of the time you will win 0.2%, around 18% of the time you will lose 0.75% and get stop out......

Ops! Sorry for the unclear information given. I would do an amendment for that.

The analysis is based on my current broker situation. My brokerage fee is NIL and the spread is based on the calculation (Mean of bid & offer price) in order to generate the mean result.

OK. For the page 5, the probability for HO should be 0.00-0.10% = 87% and 0.10-0.20% = 73% and so on......

Therefore for case 2,
1492 (72% is tally with the statistics) x 20 pips = 2.984 pips
284 (Tally as well) x -75pips = -2.13 pips
Total Return of Long position = 2.984 -2.13 = 0.854 (Profit)

And 2081 entry - 1492 target - 284 stop = 305 balance trades for not hit the target & stop. So i close the position in the daily end.
  • #9
  • May 9, 2012 5:44am May 9, 2012 5:44am
Quoting Fx2ProTrader

And 2081 entry - 1492 target - 284 stop = 305 balance trades for not hit the target & stop. So i close the position in the daily end.
If you close your position in the daily end, it could be in loss as well right? Maybe your long position has hit the 0.2%, but the short position maybe at -0.5% end of day but did not reach -0.75%. Therefore you will loss 0.2%-0.5%= -0.3% on that day. Did you consider these kind of loss?
  • #10
  • May 9, 2012 8:11am May 9, 2012 8:11am
Quoting lithium1
If you close your position in the daily end, it could be in loss as well right? Maybe your long position has hit the 0.2%, but the short position maybe at -0.5% end of day but did not reach -0.75%. Therefore you will loss 0.2%-0.5%= -0.3% on that day. Did you consider these kind of loss?
You are right! The balance of the trades doesn't hit target & stop will be closed in the daily end either in losing or earning status. And i would like to explain the function of back-testing system below.

Return Growth Chart
Overall growth = NET return performance
Long Short = Long & short position performance

Return distribution
Dot represents the return per trade.

Legend of charts
Vertical axis = Return in pips
Horizontal axis = Date

Trade summary
For only entry/stop/target hit calculation

Return summary
Total net return for all trades (Not matter how it hit/not being hit).

Drawdown
Based on return summary result

Trade consistency
Based on return summary result too

Note: Return summary is not similar to equity balance. The purpose here is to understand the final outcome and performance.
  • #11
  • May 9, 2012 8:54am May 9, 2012 8:54am
Out of curiosity, I have used this analysis on HSI (data since 1987).

But I can't get a profitable strategy. Can I send it to you, maybe you can help to have a look?
  • #12
  • May 9, 2012 9:05am May 9, 2012 9:05am
Quoting lithium1
Out of curiosity, I have used this analysis on HSI (data since 1987).

But I can't get a profitable strategy. Can I send it to you, maybe you can help to have a look?

OK.... I also like to trade HSI index future too. Do you mean that you have created a statistics system (Distant) ? And you used what system to back-testing your analysis?
  • #13
  • May 9, 2012 9:18am May 9, 2012 9:18am
Quoting Fx2ProTrader
OK.... I also like to trade HSI index future too. Do you mean that you have created a statistics system (Distant) ? And you used what system to back-testing your analysis?
I just follow your analysis. Not sure I'm doing it right, maybe you can have a look, can you PM me your email? Thanks.
  • #14
  • Last Post: Nov 12, 2012 8:30am Nov 12, 2012 8:30am
Hi, what types of analysis are profitable in the long run, i want to trade the news too, and also looking at forexfactory reports that are issued from ''big guys'', so i do have to know more behind the economy etc. But i am confused, do i have to know about the technical jargon from studying the economics? But my issue is whether to study so hard to understand, is forex not easy?
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