PA by Julexo

all zones still valid for next week

vision future fail...

let's begin absolute weekend..

PROBABILITY ENHANCER
Score
Max Score
Strength of the Move

Strength of the move (max 2): How did prices leave the level: strong fashion, or a more gradual move away from the level. Gives clues to supply and demand imbalance at the level. Strongest turn in price level is where supply and demand is most out of balance. So our quest is to look for price levels where supply and demand is most out of balance. The biggest clue in how in balance or out of balance prices are at a level, is how quickly they leave. The more quickly they move, the more out of balance they are.


2
Reward/Risk

1. How far did prices rally up from demand level before coming back to it. That is initial profit margin.

2. If buying at support or demand, where is the nearest area of supply. If risking 20 cents on trade, is nearest supply level 60 cents or farther away? If not, we are not interested in the trade.

Support and demand levels all around, we only want to take the best.


2
Big Picture
Looking at daily charts for big picture. Most of Sam's trades are intraday, but he still looks at daily chart for big picture. Big picture is important to day trader for two reasons:

1. big picture trend up or down - determines which side we want to be on

2. Where are big picture support and demand levels? We dont want to short right above a demand level. We only know that from the big picture.
If we are taking shorter time frame short positions in context of a big down trend, then this gets a 2. If we are shorting during a bigger picture uptrend, and we are close to big picture support, it is a 0 or a 1.



2
Retracements / Tests
We may look at this different than conventional wisdom. Once prices have left a level, (example of picture explanations), sell zone with a lot of candles - we want to enter on the first retracement, it is highest probability entry. First time entry is a 2. second time is a 1. Third time is a 0.

This is all just motion into mass. The mass is the supply and demand, the big stack of orders.

Chopping tree example: Every swing removes some of the mass. The more swings, the more chance to go through.




2
Time at Level
Very much in line with first enhancer - strength. At price levels with supply and level out of balance the most, price will spend the least amount of time at the level. The textbooks talk about this in the opposite way.

At price levels with the most imbalance, price will spend the least amount of time: few candles.

If price is in balance, price will stay there a long time. it is equilibrium, we dont want to trade there. We want to trade at the extremes.

Question: How many candles in what time frame: Be very careful about coming up with a specific number. Changing time frame will change the number of candles. At your time frame, compare the number of candles to time spent at other levels, dont get hung up on specific number.


1
Arrival
How did price arrive come back to the level. We want to be anywhere near other levels. We don't want new resistance levels before we buy, or new support levels to form right before we sell. Strong arrival usually means strong departure at the level.




Another odds enhancer for short term traders: Time of day that trade is meeting entry. The opportunities that we point out that meet entry in first 45-1 hour of the day, these are usually golden opportunities. Later in the day is often not as great.
Coming from the institutional side of trading, you know, because you see the order flow. Time of day odds enhancer is, in any market, supply and demand is most out of balance at or near the opening of trading in any market. I saw this day after day. Given that, if you are good at picking out levels and turning points, those will be most profitable. If entering in the first hour of the day, the best day traders make their money in the first hour of the day. I don't know anyone who makes money just trading in the afternoon. If they are trading in the afternoon, they didn't make money in the morning, and it will be tougher. After all the orders get processed, usually supply and demand are back in balance.
If you dont know what you are doing, don't trade at the open. But if you do, trade because that is the time when most of the transfer between accounts occurs. Morning is the golden opportunity.

The key as with most any trading idea is to start at the higher time frames working your way down to lower time frames looking for trades that compliment the trends on the longer time frame charts. in other words don't try to go long if your sitting at or near the bottom of a supply zone wait for a short chances. If you can't see one clearly one your preferred trading chart maybe scan other time frames. With a little practice this becomes easier.

I was going to say google Sam Seiden but looks like you've already found him.

This would be a good example I posted at another thread already. News pushing price to Supply level and bigger TF trend prevails...learning every day
Have a good week-end guys!

blue for s/d.
yellow for crystal ball sweet spots.

1. last month's low. when zoomed out to daily you'll see 3 horizontal bottoms and 3 declining tops. a break of last months low would open the zones near 2870 and 2620.

2. stacked demand. 2 zones almost on top of eachother. both could trigger a bounce.

3. the latest of the 3 declining tops. clear imbalance to keep in mind.

4. the test and farewell of last months close. big selling => another imbalance.

5. NFP and the rejection @ supply. will there be a 3rd rejection? price will tell. just be aware of the past.

now the naughty part

6. a clean continuation will prove a 2nd pole from a flag that started May 1 and aim for last months low. the red channel keeps this my primary target.

7. a fundamental change with all the sunday elections(france, greece)(did i say fundamental ) could give some support. i've drawn an orange channel to give a target @ 9 for this IF....THEN scenario.

8. IF 7 provides a bounce THEN 8 will be a point of interest. look at the bottoms to the left, the red UTL and friday's mid.

9. if the orange LTL holds then this cluster of last month mid, last week mid and supply will be interesting to watch.

back to social stuff

hey guys i am new to this forum and i am interested in supply and demand however i have been struggling to get them in the right place can somebody please help me with this problem. i will highly appreciate the help

thankyou
my email is [email protected]
skype name tahir.hussain21

first of all read all charts on forum...

I like you's chart... good plan...

Here is something for you, if you don't already have it.

rufus thankyou for the info its very helpful i am going to combine it all together and look i have always made things complicated for myself and lost trades but hopefully i can turn things around you guys are very helpful with a good plan we can all be consistent and minimize losses my skype is tahir.hussain21 if anyone wants to add me just incase i need some extra tips

thanx again

i have noticed the strongest reversals and quickest time price leaves demand or supply is when its forming a V shape pattern on my mt4 platform i have a supply and demand indicator that i just found and it plots them on the places that u have mentioned the indicator is from someone who trades with big risks and aims for 10 pips daily. if anyone wants the indicator let me know add me on skype or email me on [email protected].

happy trading

One of the odds enhancers is how did price arrive at the zone. If it takes its sweet time it will chew up a lot of the supply of orders. The attachment was a position I took just after NFP. Sometimes it is like you are standing in traffic when price starts bearing down on your order. As long as you have accepted the risk it is no problem mentally. It is when we start trading to big or have the attitude that "I have to be right" that problems can surface.

I compare it sometimes to throwing money on the floor. Would it effect you if the wind blew it away or a dog ate it. If so, are you trading to big? Just a goofy comparison.

Trade safe...my mantra

Thankyou once again I will keep that in mind I have been looking at past data on 15 min chart drawing zones and watching the longer time frame and am getting it right am going to apply it to my demo account to increase my knowledge with a journal we should start a chat group and discuss opportunities just a thought.

hello, as you can see this week opened with good gap. In terms of supply and demand analysis, how would we take the level of gaps? should we ignore them or can they act as good supply and demand level ? (the gap should be filled or not?)

Gaps are a grey area...
Technically there can't be a gap on a non-centralized market. Banks have access during weekends, your broker just cuts the price feed.

Look at this post from our friends at the "useless" thread.
institutional broker showing a gap UP . So the supply came from the institutional traders that had early access.

That gap we see on our MT4 clearly marks an imbalance between buyers and sellers, so i'm looking at it as supply. "closing the gap" is in my opinion just a test of s/d.

ps. watching last months low for any strength.

thanks . the gap has been filled. is this a good supply level?

pa