Akuma99 Not So Squeezy Journal

TRADE TYPE: RANGING

May 09 | SHORT | GBP/JPY @ 207.35 | SL: 207.98 | TP: 206.04

Well looks like we will have a second go at the short on GBP/JPY, I won't go through all the details again as they are basically the same as the last trade, only difference this time is a confluence area of the upper bb and 200SMA providing slightly strong resistance this time:

http://img73.imageshack.us/img73/3908/trade126gu.gif

First I would like to say hello to everyone in FF since I am a newbie here, so hello all you currency crunchers. Akuma99, I like what you have going on here, I use some of the same ideas without the rainbow. I was wondering how to download the indicators not standard with MT4? I went to the download link but can't seem to figure out the download. I know, a joke for someone that is somewhat PC saavy. Anyway a reply would be helpful and keep up the good work on your ideas!

Hi Ergos, and welcome to the factory ... do you mean you cannot download them, or you do not know what to do with them once downloaded?

Hi Akuma, I am with you in the GBP/JPY trade. The overall trend seems to be a downtrend and the 200SMA with the upper bollinger band give me confidence on the resistance area.

Also thank you for the informative analysis on other trades such as S&P and metals. I am learning a lot every day in your thread.

Thanks for welcoming me. I can't download them through our download link. Any ideas why? Thanks again

Firstly thanks rongshihong for the kind words. Ill be watching the trade closely as we move towards the european open.

Time for another chart I have on my watch list at the moment, the USD/CAD 1H. No squeeze signal as yet, but some other things interest me on this one with an eye to go short. First the chart:

http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/4521/usdcad22up.gif

So nothing to trade there just yet if we are waiting for a signal, but note how price is finding it hard to move through yesterdays high, coupled with the 200SMA providing resistance. The 50 CCI has also slid below 100 (over 100 indicates strength remains), which hints at some slowing of momentum, however, considering we are in the asian session as I write this, that is not so strange in itself.

Another thing, is the rainbow, you can see it is starting to fold up, however the purple averages remain spread, although flattened. Again this hints some resistance remains.

If I get any kind of short trigger in a blue zone, I will be short with a couple of lots most likely if I am online at the time, something to watch going into Europe and US.

Strange ergos, to make it easier, attached to this post is a bundle of all the indicators you see on my charts consistently as well as the template I use, hope it works for you and anyone else who wants it. (I have added it to the first post as well).

Well got online again just in time to catch the bounce off yesterdays low and close one lot at the lower bollinger band. Overall a nice profitable asian session, with one lot still open (at times can be tough going with the small ranges). Still in a blue zone so watch for further short triggers, or if you are still in the trade, think about holding on for more.

http://img124.imageshack.us/img124/7773/trade12b5fi.gif

Second lot for GBP/JPY now closed as yesterdays low seems to be support for the day. Closed right on the lower bb for a better exit than the first lot.

As we are in ranging condition according to the rainbow, I have closed and reversed at the lower bollinger band/yesterdays close confluence area and will now target the upper bollinger band, which may meet up with the 50 and 200SMA in its travels. Chart to come soon.

TRADE RESULT: +78

Just to follow up my previous post above earlier today of the how the USD/CAD was setting up for a short trade, however I was waiting for a squeeze signal, well it came, and look what happened ... first the original chart:

http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/4521/usdcad22up.gif

and how it has turned out:

http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/3179/trade131eg.gif

It has been one of those weeks this week, nice trending movement, support and resistance areas being honoured, lovely.

TRADE RESULT: +132

Akuma,

At first, I could not help complaining privately to myself about your rainbow screen shots as we typically like to judge others. (In life and especially on these forums)

However, I've become a fan of your system, your trading principles, and your postings. I like your entry/exit reasoning and the overall simplicity even with the "tie-dyed" look.

I've just recently moved to the longer timeframes and have been involved withe EJ 4hr sytem. I would like to find a way to incorporate as these have similar reversal/exhaustion activities.

Keep up the good work!


Ktrade

Oh, do you still use a chat room?

Akuma,


If the blue bars apear on upper side is it short trigger? And if it appears on lower side that is long trigger?

If that is the case than please check it in EUR/USD hourly chart, prce moves opposite.

I want to express my appreciation for your excellent journal. I find great value in your detailed explanations. Your charts are first rate. They are informative, readable and colored with meaning.

The evolution of the Bollinger Squeeze indicator caught my attention and is what prompts this post. In trying to replicate your charts I noticed that my indicator [ver.7, set at CCI(50)] did not appear the same as in the USDCAD charts in post #70. Closer examination suggests that you may have a different CCI setting. Because you pointed out that the signal did not cross the 100 line I found it troubling that on my chart it did. Examining the code for the indicator, it appears that a difference in CCI periods is the most probable explanation. This leads to the suggestion of adding "periodCCI" to the IndicatorShortName so that the current setting is visible. A minor issue but it would be nice to have the confirmation.

Kudos for a well executed trade!

[http://img334.imageshack.us/img334/2...1657gmt9lz.gif

Thanks for all the thoughts guys .. ill try to answer you all:

ktrade, thanks for the honesty , and I assume the critisism was aimed at too many indicators and stuff going on. I started out trading as most do with indicators left right and center, before realising that I didn't actually know what they were doing. I then moved to trading naked for quite a period of time, which was the best thing I think I could have done, using just candlesticks, support and resistance and chart patterns as my entry and exits techniques. I was profitable with this approach, but didn't feel I was getting the entire picture.

I then pondered what I thought the markets comprised of and came to the following conclusion:

 

1. Price, the basis all charts and what all decisions are ultimately made off, candlestick I felt represented this the best for me
2. Group Mentality, the market is after all fueled by the process of a decision being made, and then everyone jumping on board at later and later times, and higher and higher prices (or lower and lower), without this happening we do not get the runs like we have seen over the last few days. So if we know where the sheep are hearding, it helps to jump in early, this is where support, resistance and option levels come in (and the purpose of the 200 and 50SMA's).
3. Momentum, what I found with price action in the fx markets is we are handicapped somewhat by not having volume information to help us determine if a move has any strength behind it. That is why I look at momentum. I look forward to trading some instruments that have volume information. The CCI helps with momentum.
4. Volatility, the first thing that led me to include an indicator (the bollinger squeeze), the markets are no different to real life, when a big decision needs to be made, you need to stop, think and assess things before making the leap. The thinking process are the blue zones, while the decisions are the subsequent breakouts.
5. Trend, you'll hear it all the time, the trend is your friend, I agree, most of the time, but a trend with falling momentum is no more a friend than your ex-girlfriend is to your wife, hence the rainbow.

I still trade almost naked 1 out of every 4 weeks (using the squeeze only) to keep me sound in the fundamentals of trading, price and volatility, and next week will be one of those weeks so that should be fun.


Oh also I do not use a chat room too much any more, but if there is a good one you know of let me know.


lifetime_trader, well no, the hard and fast rule is not if the blue is above then go short, and vise versa, if you are talking about the CCI. Below is the EUR/USD you speak of with some explanations of triggers, but three very basic triggers are:

Zero line cross: a cross from below to above, in an uptrending market at the lower bollinger band is a long trigger (and vise versa).
100 slide: In an uptrending market, a slide back above the -100 is a weak long trigger (and vise versa).
Zero line bounce: A bounce at the zero line from above in an uptrending market is a long trigger (and vise versa).

http://img187.imageshack.us/img187/6503/eur5dv.gif

hapalkos, well sometimes you can't help good luck , you are right, my CCI was set to a different value on that USD/CAD trade, purely accidently I had it set to a 34 period CCI earlier in the day as I was testing some settings to see if the triggers were improved, the slide from +100 on the 50CCI would have been the weaker short trigger on that trade.

Your suggestion is a great one for the indicator, so attached to this post is v8 of the squeeze indicator with your suggestions included, hope it is what you wanted.

Phew, I hope I answered everything .. hope you all have a great trading day.

TRADE TYPE: TRENDING

May 10 | SHORT| EUR/JPY @ 141.81 | SL: 142.07 | TP: 141.33

http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/5299/trade146qf.gif

Well the market is very quiet through the early hours of Asia, not too much to go on. The EUR/JPY seems to be emerging into a downtrend, we have been in a blue zone for quite a while, so I am sure a strong move is on it's way, let's hope I am along for the ride.

This one is a pretty standard trade for my system, apart from the fact that the 50SMA has slid under the upper bollinger, so I have taken my short on the zero line bounce at the 50SMA.

Trend
The rainbow has folded completely now and we are now spreading out into what seems to be a downtrend. I will stick to shorts on this pair for this week most likely.

Momentum
Very little momentum to speak of at this time frame, hence the extended blue zone, 4H bearish momentum has also fallen away, however daily bearish momentum is strong and growing.

Trigger
Zero line bounce on the 50CCI got me into this trade at the 50SMA, which is just below the upper bb and yesterdays high. I may be in a little early, but ill take the triggers as they come. Im in with one lot for now, may add a second on another trigger in the next hour or two.

Resistance/Support
There is plenty of resistance ahead, the 50SMA, the upper BB and yesterdays high. Nearest support is the daily pivot line (not shown), the lower BB and yesterdays low is in reach.

Stoploss/Exit Strategy
My stop is above the above mention resistance, if it gets through that then I need to think it through again. My target is the 161.8 extension for now, which is not too far above yesterdays low. A quick move to that area would make me re-assess my target.

Happy trading!

Sorry didn't get to post my entry chart on that one as it was late in the day, but this morning, finally after an 13 hour battle we made it close enough to the upper BB for me to close the trade. Stop loss was never threatened though, just took a while:

http://img434.imageshack.us/img434/2844/trade13b5pv.gif

We are now at the upperbb, still ranging, if we get a short signal with the 50SMA cleared, we may short again.

TRADE RESULT: +37

This one thought about it for a while before succumbing to the trend, but did return to my original entry and the 50SMA to let me open my second lot. Both lots closed while I was offline at the target price, it has been a good week:

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/5332/trade14b8xi.gif

TRADE RESULT: +96

TRADE TYPE: TRENDING

May 10 | LONG | GBP/USD @ 1.8620 | SL: 1.8551 | TP: 1.8776

http://img79.imageshack.us/img79/1598/trade156db.gif

Been a while since I have had a trade on the majors, recent trades have mainly been on the crosses which is interesting. This one has popped up mid europe, and it is a no brainer long trade (but not necessarily a no brainer winner of course). Strong uptrend, zero line bounce trigger and at the lower bollinger and 50SMA. Only concern is that the blue zone dissapeared a bar or so earlier, have I missed the move?

Trend
Strongly sloping and spread rainbow confirms the uptrend is still in place (pretty obvious from price in this one)

Momentum
Bullish momentum is falling slightly on the 4H, while the dailys remain strong, should be enough to at least get to the upper bb, we will see if the far off target is also in reach.

Trigger
Zero line bounce on the 50CCI got me into this trade at the 50SMA and lower BB, now to see if the SMA holds.

Resistance/Support
Nothing in terms of resistance until yesterday's high at 686, from there we are on our way to the extension level hopefully. Support is strong and holding a the moment with the 50SMA, bollinger confluence sitting at the bottom of this trade. Interesting the daily pivot also sits at that area.

Stoploss/Exit Strategy
My stop is behind the 78.6 fib level from the last move up, if it moves beyond there I am definitely wrong, but to be honest I should know well before then. Target this time is the 127.8 extension of the move down to the bottom bollinger, I will see what happens as to whether I go for the 161.8 for this one.

Happy trading!

Hi Akuma, re ur post # 59:

"This morning, I downloaded the strategybuilder version of MT4 as they make available some other vehicles such as the SP500, QQQ (Nasdaq 100), metals, futures and others and applied my system to those to see how it performed."

I'm a noob & following this thread with great interest. I was particularly interested when you mentioned that on the strategy builder version of mt4 you can put other vehicles in the market watch window. I've downloaded the strategy builder version of mt4, and signed up for a demo on it, but have no idea how to get these other symbols u mention in there (or is this something one needs a live account to do? and if so, a live account with which broker?). Thanks, and like everyone else here, I'm very appreciative of your charts and clear presentation of your reasoning for your trades!

Open your "Market Watch" window, right click, then select "Show All".

When you select open new chart, you'll have more choices.