5% every 24 hours using set and forget - £200 into £1797! | Forex Factory

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5% every 24 hours using set and forget - £200 into £1797!

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited May 16, 2012 11:52am May 3, 2012 11:58am | Edited May 16, 2012 11:52am
Hello Traders,

I have developed a system that has been very consistent and profitable over the last 45 days (well 45 24 hour periods).

The system uses No touch Bets on BetonMarkets.com, and if the trade goes the wwrong way we use hedging. The basic Strategy:

1. Look at forex factory news calendar for the day you wish to trade. Choose a pair that has No major News coming out (or only medium impact or below news). This is to turn the odds in our favour that there will no large swings in that curreny pair.

2. Towards the end of the day (after 5pm GMT) place a no touch bet on betonmarkets.com such that the bet will be so far away from the current price action as to give a 5% profit. the way Betonmarkets do this is you select a payout you want: e.g. £100, this bet will cost you £95: so in 24 hours if the markets has not touched the level then you will get 100-95 =£5 profit.

The whole point is that you choose a level so far away from the current price action (typically 150+ pips) so that there is a very low risk of it being hit and making sure no volatlity inducing news is coming out over that 24 hour period.

3. If the price action heads rapidly towards our level, we can hedge.
I personally will look to see if a support/reistance level is broken and place a buy/sell order a few pips above/below thatm heading towards our no touch level. e.g. we bet the eur/gbp is going to be below 0.818, the current price is at 0.812, we could enter a buy order at recent resistance inbetween this range, so that we are hedged.

Well thats it, the profit speaks for itself, over the course of 45 24 hour periods i have turned £200 into £1797 using the method above.

p.s. I am NOT trying to sell betonmarkets.com service, in effect they are a low cost forex options provider to the retail client. I use them the same way as if i way trading forex options.

UPDATE:
I have decided to log my account growth to see if this system has potential in the long run. All % will be gain/loss on previous day.
07/05/11: new account £600
08/07/11: account +7.5% : £645
09/05/11 account +8.5% : £700
11/05/11 account +6.0% : £742 (lower risk trade)
15/05/11 account +8.5%: £800
16/05/11 account +5.0%: £840


Thanks, any questions just ask

Happy Pippin
  • #2
  • May 3, 2012 12:00pm May 3, 2012 12:00pm
Oh -I forgot to mention, i posted this system to seek critisism (constructive of course) and to help perfect the method.
  • #3
  • May 3, 2012 12:05pm May 3, 2012 12:05pm
Sounds good, I'll be following.
  • #4
  • May 3, 2012 12:14pm May 3, 2012 12:14pm
Firstly Im not sure whether to call them bets or trades... but anyway:

I placed a No touch level on the USD/CAD yesterday at 0.994,

Price action didnt go anywhere close, I will be due my 5% at 23:59 GMT


A trade I have placed for Tommorrow:

No Touch EUR/GBP at 0.818, expires at 9PM GMT (since it is friday)

Why?
1. No Major news due for either GBP OR EUR
2. The majority view is still bearish on the EUR (todays comments have worsened this )

I have hedging this by placing a buy order at 0.81425 (Nearest Resistance). I use a Spreadbetting broker for this.

Any Questions feel free to ask!

Fridays are especially good to trade this
  • #5
  • May 3, 2012 12:17pm May 3, 2012 12:17pm
Fridays are typically better to trade this strategy for two reasons:

1. Typically less volatility than the rest of the week

2. Timewise your risk is 3 hours less (since bets expire at 9pm the next day rather than 23.59.
  • #6
  • May 3, 2012 12:18pm May 3, 2012 12:18pm
Why have I been moved to commerical forum?! This is a trading system that i am not selling!!
  • #7
  • May 3, 2012 12:33pm May 3, 2012 12:33pm
Quoting bjn201
Why have I been moved to commerical forum?! This is a trading system that i am not selling!!
So if the touch does get hit you lose 100?
  • #8
  • May 3, 2012 12:36pm May 3, 2012 12:36pm
Very interesting! Thank you for sharing this.

Can you explain, by using an example, the hedge trade timing and outcome? For example:

The BOM trade expires (24 hours later) and it loses, at what point do you hedge, and what stops both the BOM trade and the FX Spot hedge losing?

Thank you!
  • #9
  • May 3, 2012 12:38pm May 3, 2012 12:38pm
Yes that is correct, however you start to hedge before that happens:

So lose 100 if price hits 0.994 (coming from start of 0.988 - my trade yesterday)

To hedge this: enter a buy order if price goes past 0.991 say, (set after recent resistance so as to get a minimal chance of being stopped out on that trade).
  • #10
  • May 3, 2012 12:46pm May 3, 2012 12:46pm
Ok unfortunately this is the one bit of the strategy that is discretionary....

So this is a typical trade that i have done in the past:

i have bet £1000 that price will not touch 0.994.

Price action at the start is 0.988.

Price action goes up to 0.991 say, i start to get worried. If i was to make zero profit and loss (perfectly hedged) then i can afford to lose £50 (5% of £1000).

So I look for recent support and resistance. in the example above major resistance at 0.9915 say.
I enter Buy order with a stop of -£50 just above the resistance. If this trade is triggered then chances are the price will shoot up out of resistance, and hopefully not stop me out. If the price keeps going towards my level, i am hedged since my buy trade is still in the market.

I can only base this on my past results and as always i hope not to be proved wrong in the future, but for the price to break a significant resistance, and go all the way down again, take out my stop, then go all the way up to my level, it is unlikely given that you choose your trade based that there is little news on that day.

Hope that helps!
  • #11
  • May 3, 2012 12:47pm May 3, 2012 12:47pm
Ok, maybe I am being slow here... but with the hedge, one side has a fixed win (BOM: Lose $95, win $5) and the hedge has unlimited loss potential (correct)?

So, if there IS a touch, you lose 95 one side, and need the Spot trade to move $95 (to win back you loses)?

I've tried to look at similar things with Hourly Bets and 'inside' that 20 mins bets, eg. 10am-11am and 10.40am-11am but haven't quite cracked that.

Maybe Bungee bets like IG offer could be useful alternative?
  • #12
  • May 3, 2012 12:52pm May 3, 2012 12:52pm
Quoting bjn201
A trade I have placed for Tommorrow:

No Touch EUR/GBP at 0.818, expires at 9PM GMT (since it is friday)

Why?
1. No Major news due for either GBP OR EUR
2. The majority view is still bearish on the EUR (todays comments have worsened this )

I have hedging this by placing a buy order at 0.81425 (Nearest Resistance). I use a Spreadbetting broker for this.

Any Questions feel free to ask!

Fridays are especially good to trade this
Hi

Thanks for sharing.

I'm surprised you have placed any bet for tomorrow seeing as its NFP tomorrow????? I realise you have avioded a USD pair but still a surprise NFP can send shudders across all sorts of pairs.

Would of thought it might of been prudent to aviod NFP days all together?

Anyway apart from that this sounds like a nice little method however I will have to have a look at the betonmarkets.com not sure how that works.

Will check out and come back to you with any questions.

Good luck with the thread will follow with interest and some daft questions to boot, I'm sure.

All the best Clive.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #13
  • May 3, 2012 12:54pm May 3, 2012 12:54pm
I have never heard of Bungee bets, how do they work?

Your stop value for the hedge is such that it does not have unlimited loss, in fact the loss of the hedge will be perfectly matched in theory by the no touch bet winning.

Maybe i havent made this clear, you dont enter the hedge trade immediately, only after price goes against you a fair amount and breaks previous resistance levels. However theory suggests that this Should not occur on pairs that have no major news (so theoretically less volatility).

As i said its not bulletproof but over the past 45 days its worked... so i am inclined to believe it will so far.

For the record i have only had to hedge my trade 3 times out of 45, and so that probably explains why im not good at explaining it!
  • #14
  • May 3, 2012 1:02pm May 3, 2012 1:02pm
Quoting clivepackham
Hi

Thanks for sharing.

I'm surprised you have placed any bet for tomorrow seeing as its NFP tomorrow????? I realise you have avioded a USD pair but still a surprise NFP can send shudders across all sorts of pairs.

Would of thought it might of been prudent to aviod NFP days all together?

Anyway apart from that this sounds like a nice little method however I will have to have a look at the betonmarkets.com not sure how that works.

Will check out and come back to you with any questions.

Good luck with the thread will follow with...

Clive,

You make a good point! Probably a good idea to leave this day!

Im not going to try and guess the NFP, but if they were negative, then this should work in our favour, EUR/GBP might go down...

Althoughly if they are positive, theoretically they should affect the EUR and GBP in similar fashion? hence (hopefully) little change on the EUR/GBP

As i said, all theoretical However I havent avoided NFP in the past and have been ok.

THanks for yours ideas, lets keep them coming!
  • #15
  • May 3, 2012 1:05pm May 3, 2012 1:05pm
To take even less risk, I was thinking of changing it so the level is further away so i only make 1 or 2% on bet... however it could be worth the extra security of being further away...

Plus we all know 1% compounded = millions etc
  • #16
  • May 3, 2012 3:42pm May 3, 2012 3:42pm
ok so if you lose your BOM tade... how much do you make on the spread bet?

Quoting bjn201
I have never heard of Bungee bets, how do they work?

Your stop value for the hedge is such that it does not have unlimited loss, in fact the loss of the hedge will be perfectly matched in theory by the no touch bet winning.

Maybe i havent made this clear, you dont enter the hedge trade immediately, only after price goes against you a fair amount and breaks previous resistance levels. However theory suggests that this Should not occur on pairs that have no major news (so theoretically less volatility).

As i said its not bulletproof but...
  • #17
  • May 3, 2012 5:16pm May 3, 2012 5:16pm
Well that depends on your leverage and/or how much you are willing to risk... for the 3 times I have hedged the no touch bet I have made around £100-300 with the no touch bet costing me around £500...
However on all 3 occasions the price never reached the no touch bet before it expired, and it actually allowed me to close both the hedge and bet in profit.. however ideally you dont want to have to hedge cause then you take the risk of your stop being taken out (however unlikely that is)

Hope that helps,
  • #18
  • May 4, 2012 12:34am May 4, 2012 12:34am
Am I right in thinking that on betonmarkets you can "sell" the bet before expiry? So you don't have to hold on til the end if you can profit on both positions?

Keep going with this although it's in the commercial section, I think you are on to something. I don't know why it was moved here, you should ask the moderators.
  • #19
  • May 4, 2012 4:09am May 4, 2012 4:09am
It sort of makes sense and it does not make sense....

I have been looking at this similar method and am not far of cracking this... the problem you have here, you could lose both your bets... and the other issue you have here if you lose your BOM the market trade, the hedge might not even pay off enough to cover your losses.

Quoting bjn201
Well that depends on your leverage and/or how much you are willing to risk... for the 3 times I have hedged the no touch bet I have made around £100-300 with the no touch bet costing me around £500...
However on all 3 occasions the price never reached the no touch bet before it expired, and it actually allowed me to close both the hedge and bet in profit.. however ideally you dont want to have to hedge cause then you take the risk of your stop being taken out (however unlikely that is)

Hope that helps,
  • #20
  • May 4, 2012 7:07am May 4, 2012 7:07am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Am I right in thinking that on betonmarkets you can "sell" the bet before expiry? So you don't have to hold on til the end if you can profit on both positions?

Keep going with this although it's in the commercial section, I think you are on to something. I don't know why it was moved here, you should ask the moderators.
You can sell the bet however they price it so you can never sell it at profit... so in effect you wont sell it until expiry, so your market risk is for 24 hours typically.
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