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  • #14,361
  • May 3, 2012 4:19am May 3, 2012 4:19am
That's what I havve too

Quoting T@rantula
3110-05 first target
  • #14,362
  • May 3, 2012 4:25am May 3, 2012 4:25am
Quoting BrunargarFx
That's what I havve too
In normal/advanced technical analysis when ROC ( rate of change aka momentum) is crossed by its own SMA it usually gives a strong push in desired direction. 3132 was ROC/SMA cross so we should really go down at least to a daily support.
  • #14,363
  • May 3, 2012 4:25am May 3, 2012 4:25am
I am out minus 20.. dunno what its doing..
  • #14,364
  • May 3, 2012 4:28am May 3, 2012 4:28am
Second target would be LTL on H4/daily, i.e. 1.308, which fits with one of my H4 levels

Quoting BrunargarFx
That's what I havve too
  • #14,365
  • May 3, 2012 4:29am May 3, 2012 4:29am
Good job Brunargar!

I managed to screw myself - didnt re-enter short, just watched silently another little double top at 3160 (on M1 )... and second day in a row missed AU short.

For AU it was a really simple setup for short. Cash rate is down, so the currency should go down and it did. So, sell on pullback. This is classical B-P-C setup. Break of TL, pullback and continuation down. PA slow, but this was a 30+ pip play for a 10 pip SL. Even to add for some more pips on BPC of YL (yesterday low).
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  • #14,366
  • May 3, 2012 4:46am May 3, 2012 4:46am
Quoting danc
I am out minus 20.. dunno what its doing..
Range play due to bid rate decision...these days i usually stay flat..
  • #14,367
  • May 3, 2012 5:05am May 3, 2012 5:05am
Quoting Chika Kure
Good job Brunargar!

I managed to screw myself - didnt re-enter short, just watched silently another little double top at 3160 (on M1 )... and second day in a row missed AU short.

For AU it was a really simple setup for short. Cash rate is down, so the currency should go down and it did. So, sell on pullback. This is classical B-P-C setup. Break of TL, pullback and continuation down. PA slow, but this was a 30+ pip play for a 10 pip SL. Even to add for some more pips on BPC of YL (yesterday low).
Your analysis is valid and all u say its true. You should have traded it, but I understand your indecision..
  • #14,368
  • May 3, 2012 5:41am May 3, 2012 5:41am
Closed everything, +26, flat now
  • #14,369
  • May 3, 2012 7:22am May 3, 2012 7:22am
15 mins till conference! We can expect some volatility. 3110 still remains as first support while interim resistance is 3140 above 3160 and 3175.

Technicals says we should sell PBs.
  • #14,370
  • May 3, 2012 7:34am May 3, 2012 7:34am
Quoting T@rantula
15 mins till conference! We can expect some volatility. 3110 still remains as first support while interim resistance is 3140 above 3160 and 3175.

Technicals says we should sell PBs.
3110 done, 3085 next target
  • #14,371
  • May 3, 2012 7:44am May 3, 2012 7:44am
3095 touched, ideal pullback would be as close to 3175 as it could be. Reaction to news conference is expected.
  • #14,372
  • May 3, 2012 7:46am May 3, 2012 7:46am
I was expecting the spike up first, so missed the move down
REloaded S 1.3155
Quoting T@rantula
15 mins till conference! We can expect some volatility. 3110 still remains as first support while interim resistance is 3140 above 3160 and 3175.

Technicals says we should sell PBs.
  • #14,373
  • May 3, 2012 7:51am May 3, 2012 7:51am
Quoting BrunargarFx
I was expecting the spike up first, so missed the move down
REloaded S 1.3155
Scale out and move stops to BE asap, as conference usually spikes it up and reverse it afterwards.
  • #14,374
  • May 3, 2012 7:54am May 3, 2012 7:54am
ok thanks
Quoting T@rantula
Scale out and move stops to BE asap, as conference usually spikes it up and reverse it afterwards.
  • #14,375
  • May 3, 2012 8:03am May 3, 2012 8:03am
Quoting BrunargarFx
ok thanks
See DPP is being tested, the only low risk short is to sell it 3170-75 with 10 pip stop.

I am still flat until 14.30 gmt.
  • #14,376
  • May 3, 2012 8:06am May 3, 2012 8:06am
That's some spike alright,
I guess we should be nearing the top now or is this turning into a full blown temptaive to break 1.326??

  • #14,377
  • May 3, 2012 8:08am May 3, 2012 8:08am
Quoting BrunargarFx
That's some spike alright,
I guess we should be nearing the top now or is this turning into a full blown temptaive to break 1.326??

Tomorrow is NFP so I guess we should wait until then. The safest play is scalp trading which really isnt affected by intraday setups.

Guessing is pointless now, so far 3175 has been nicely rejected , so 5-15 pippers are enough for this time being
  • #14,378
  • May 3, 2012 8:12am May 3, 2012 8:12am
Quoting T@rantula
See DPP is being tested, the only low risk short is to sell it 3170-75 with 10 pip stop.
Ok this strategy has been working last 5-10 mins, I would advise moving stops to BE and relaxing, for anyone who sold it multiple times.

In next 15 mins market is preparing for WS which additionally spikes it up as a breakout. ( The spike can be both sides x<3175; x>3175 ) so why risk it if u made profits)
  • #14,379
  • May 3, 2012 8:14am May 3, 2012 8:14am
I'm going to trade my plan, which was to short the pullback.
I still have my position opened @ 1.3155 but not much at stake there. My SL is 1.319

3175 is a good level, it is also the 50EMA on H1. I may follow you and wait for NY open for confirmation


Quoting T@rantula
See DPP is being tested, the only low risk short is to sell it 3170-75 with 10 pip stop.

I am still flat until 14.30 gmt.
  • #14,380
  • May 3, 2012 8:19am May 3, 2012 8:19am
Hi T.
What's WS?
Quoting T@rantula
Ok this strategy has been working last 5-10 mins, I would advise moving stops to BE and relaxing, for anyone who sold it multiple times.

In next 15 mins market is preparing for WS which additionally spikes it up as a breakout. ( The spike can be both sides x<3175; x>3175 ) so why risk it if u made profits)
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